KDawg Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Nope. Give me the season and let us earn our draft pick the right way - by not being good. Though I am a little nervous. If the games are played in empty stadiums the Skins have a tremendous advantage. They’ve been doing it for a few years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said: There are a lot of players I love who likely fall in that range in this draft. But I have some fear the season might not be hot, so it would drive me crazy if let's say we gave up a top 5 pick for any dude in the later part of the first round in this draft. If we had a shot at Lawrence or Sewell or Ross or Chase but that pick is going to some other team, it would drive me crazy. 🤨 I think there will only be one team that has any sort of shot at Lawrence and that's whoever is picking #1 overall. IMO the only way that doesn't happen is if something crazy happens where a guy like Mahomes or Rodgers has a season ending injury before the season starts that the team knows he'll recover from, and they deal with a ton of other injuries on both sides of the ball to the point where they end up being so bad that they're picking #1 overall. Sewell is more likely for a top team to be able to trade up for, but he'd still be really hard to pass up at #2 overall unless the team with #2 is already set with an All-Pro LT. 2 hours ago, nonniey said: No, you have to take into account the possibility of no season, and if that happens we'd be trading the overall #2 pick in 2021. No 2021 will be too much of a crap shoot unless you can be sure of getting a top 3 pick. I'd devalue 2021 1st and 2d round picks substantially (while increasing the value of 3rd-7th rounders). If the NFL doesn't have a season this year I doubt everyone will just keep their draft picks. I'm guessing they'd employ some sort of lottery type system. But it would definitely be sweet to get to stay at #2. We'd be in a position to get one of the best LTs to come out in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 56 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: I remember checking Thomas out back when Steve told us all to be prepared to draft him when we picked at #5. Fun season. Could be 4 tackles in the top 12, which is crazy. The thing with this draft, If one of the top 3 TEs do make it to our pick at 66, we'd be leaving so many better prospects at LB, CB, DB and mostly WR to take one and they may still be gone. Probably but naturally impossible to know now. Depending on the mock draft type either there will be a run on the top tier TEs in the 2nd round. Or some say the run starts in the third. I don't know how many WRs are going in the 2nd round, in Kiper's mock a lot of WRs are gone after the 2nd. If I had to guess a position in advance as to the third round, I'll stick to my same guess from months back and guess a CB. But no way to know until it unfolds. the wildcard is its tough to predict the run on what position when. Am guessing CB because its a good draft for the position and the run on them tends to happen early. I can argue WR is the ideal spot for the third round but also could argue to wait until the 4th. The argument to me to take one in the third is the possibility of an expected faller. My argument for the 4th round would be no expected faller and then you are looking at maybe 8-10 WRs with similar grades because the position is so deep. But I am chilled about it because I am a BPA guy so however it unfolds it unfolds. I'd put money though that they came out of the draft with a WR, TE, CB, O lineman or at least 3 out of those 4 positions. Even though Kyle Smith is a BPA guy he revealed in one interview that he tries to match BPA to need at times especially later in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volsmet Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 An empty stadium takes a home game away from each team scheduled to visit landover. 2 minutes ago, mistertim said: I think there will only be one team that has any sort of shot at Lawrence and that's whoever is picking #1 overall. IMO the only way that doesn't happen is if something crazy happens where a guy like Mahomes or Rodgers has a season ending injury before the season starts that the team knows he'll recover from, and they deal with a ton of other injuries on both sides of the ball to the point where they end up being so bad that they're picking #1 overall. Sewell is more likely for a top team to be able to trade up for, but he'd still be really hard to pass up at #2 overall unless a team was already set with an All-Pro LT. If the NFL doesn't have a season this year I doubt everyone will just keep their draft picks. I'm guessing they'd employ some sort of lottery type system. But it would definitely be sweet to get to stay at #2. We'd be in a position to get one of the best LTs to come out in some time. Cinci taking Lawrence & Burrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, volsmet said: An empty stadium takes a home game away from each team scheduled to visit landover. Big time advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KillBill26 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, KDawg said: Nope. Give me the season and let us earn our draft pick the right way - by not being good. Though I am a little nervous. If the games are played in empty stadiums the Skins have a tremendous advantage. They’ve been doing it for a few years now. Plus, it's the Redskins, so a cancelled season might prevent us from moving up to the #1 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, volsmet said: An empty stadium takes a home game away from each team scheduled to visit landover. I'd put a laugh emoji on that post but actually as we all know its true. I fly up pretty much for one game or more a season and its gotten worse and worse. I've been to my share of road games, too and i'd say the experience at Fedex is the most embarrassing I've seen in sports. And I've seen a lot of live sports events in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, volsmet said: Cinci taking Lawrence & Burrow? That would be an interesting scenario, if the NFL did just keep the same draft order if there's no season this year. I wonder if they'd try to move Burrow and take Lawrence or get a king's ransom for the pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KillBill26 Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, mistertim said: If the NFL doesn't have a season this year I doubt everyone will just keep their draft picks. I'm guessing they'd employ some sort of lottery type system. But it would definitely be sweet to get to stay at #2. We'd be in a position to get one of the best LTs to come out in some time. I think the NFL would be better off having teams keep their draft slot for 2021 in the event of a cancelled season. Bc imagine if the chiefs or saints get that top pick. And you want parity, give the bottom feeders another top pick to help them turn things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, mistertim said: That would be an interesting scenario, if the NFL did just keep the same draft order if there's no season this year. I wonder if they'd try to move Burrow or get a king's ransom for the pick. They’d move the 1st overall pick if Burrow shows he can be what they think. And they’d get a ****load for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 I hope not, Lamb IMO is going to be a star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volsmet Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, KillBill26 said: I think the NFL would be better off having teams keep their draft slot for 2021 in the event of a cancelled season. Bc imagine if the chiefs or saints get that top pick. And you want parity, give the bottom feeders another top pick to help them turn things around. If you are outside of the top 10, you need to entice Cinci to take your first in 2020 for theirs in 2021. Just now, Skinsinparadise said: I hope not, Lamb IMO is going to be a star. CeeDee left early to avoid the Vols, soft player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, KDawg said: They’d move the 1st overall pick if Burrow shows he can be what they think. And they’d get a ****load for it. But without a season this year they'd have no way of knowing if Burrow is what they think he can be. It would be an interesting conundrum. Keep the guy who you drafted as an excellent prospect and trade the #1 pick for an enormous draft haul, or take the generational prospect at #1 and trade the guy you picked the prior year before he ever gets a snap in the NFL? Another aspect is if there's no NFL season, there's quite possibly not going to be a CFB season either...so who knows how they'd handle that as far as the draft and eligibility, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, mistertim said: But without a season this year they'd have no way of knowing if Burrow is what they think he can be. It would be an interesting conundrum. Keep the guy who you drafted as an excellent prospect and trade the #1 pick for an enormous draft haul, or take the generational prospect at #1 and trade the guy you picked the prior year before he ever gets a snap in the NFL? Another aspect is if there's no NFL season, there's quite possibly not going to be a CFB season either...so who knows how they'd handle that as far as the draft and eligibility, etc. I’m willing to bet, if the season were to be canceled (which I don’t believe will occur), they’d hold a weighted lottery for the draft order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volsmet Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Cinci’s #1 next year > anyone in this class but Young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, volsmet said: CeeDee left early to avoid the Vols, soft player. Ceedee is tough but he might not be as tough as this dude... jennings9.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: I hope not, Lamb IMO is going to be a star. That would be a Julio Jones sort of trade up...that's pretty damn expensive. Not quite as far to go but from 21 up to probably top 6 or 7. Lamb is very talented but IMO he's no Julio Jones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volsmet Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Jennings has the advantage of being a complete psychopath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, volsmet said: Cinci’s #1 next year > anyone in this class but Young. Only if it’s #1. There’s no guarantee there’s no season, there’s no guarantee Cincy is the worst team in the league if there is a season, and if there is no season there’s no guarantee there’s not a draft lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volsmet Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, KDawg said: Only if it’s #1. There’s no guarantee there’s no season, there’s no guarantee Cincy is the worst team in the league if there is a season, and if there is no season there’s no guarantee there’s not a draft lottery. The expected value of that pick is greater than the value of anyone in this draft to me. Cinci has nearly no shot of finishing with a better record than 5 teams, I’ll take Sewell or Fields as a consolation prize - I’d have Sewell rated above anyone in this class but Young .. Cinci is one of maybe 6 teams who could end up picking first if the nfl season is played, which gives me a nearly 17% chance at Lawrence - add in Covid & maybe I’m at 18.5% ... I’d take a nearly 1/5 chance at Lawrence, with the option to settle for another elite player, over anyone in this draft other than Young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Agree about Sewell. If you put positional value aside and rate the prospect just on his talent level and how good he projects to be at the next level then Sewell > Burrow. Sewell is an absolute stud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, volsmet said: The expected value of that pick is greater than the value of anyone in this draft to me. Cinci has nearly no shot of finishing with a better record than 5 teams, I’ll take Sewell or Fields as a consolation prize - I’d have Sewell rated above anyone in this class but Young .. Cinci is one of maybe 6 teams who could end up picking first if the nfl season is played, which gives me a nearly 17% chance at Lawrence - add in Covid & maybe I’m at 18.5% ... I’d take a nearly 1/5 chance at Lawrence, with the option to settle for another elite player, over anyone in this draft other than Young. Top end QB > Anyone. Including Young. But still. 18% is not a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conn Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, mistertim said: Another aspect is if there's no NFL season, there's quite possibly not going to be a CFB season either...so who knows how they'd handle that as far as the draft and eligibility, etc. In terms of draft eligibility there's nothing to handle. The three year rule isn't how many years you've played college football, it's how many years you've been out of highschool. So the same guys would be eligible to declare. Now who actually decides to declare or not would be a cluster**** for college programs, especially because to replace them they'd be recruiting an entire class that last played as high school Juniors (bc HS football in this unlikely hypothetical isn't happening either, nor is a standard recruitment cycle etc.). But NFL eligibility wouldn't change, in technical terms. College programs can't control the players who'd want to declare or try to stop them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volsmet Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, KDawg said: Top end QB > Anyone. Including Young. But still. 18% is not a guarantee. Of course, expected value isn’t a guarantee, but I figure about a 56% chance at returning equal or greater value, with a nearly 20% chance of hitting something far greater in value which increases the overall value of the investment. 3 minutes ago, mistertim said: Agree about Sewell. If you put positional value aside and rate the prospect just on his talent level and how good he projects to be at the next level then Sewell > Burrow. Sewell is an absolute stud. Cinci controls the opportunity to have Young & Lawrence - only in an irrational world would they do anything to jeopardize their opportunity to grab TL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malapropismic Depository Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 I don't think there will be a season this year so it feels like we're all playing a form of fantasy football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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