Cooked Crack Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Wow, 2 to SEVEN. I don't think a net of seven is a realistic outcome. I think a gain of five is realistic. More than that would take a complete collapse of the entire GOP. So, it looks like the Dems are going to lose the Alabama seat. The Michigan (Peters) seat isn't iron-clad, but leans Dem. The most likely gains are, in order of likelihood: Arizona Colorado North Carolina Maine Iowa GA special GA (Purdue) South Carolina Montana AZ and Colorado are getting close to being locks. I'd put money on NC and Maine too. Those are the 4 critical races that would switch control to the Democrats if they all hold. In Iowa, Gideon is a very slight favorite over Ernst (538 gives her a 52% chance of winning and she's been up in every poll except one since the first week of August). So that'd be a net of 4. The other 4 listed are toss-ups (at best), so maybe the Dems pull one out. Certainly the anecdotal news out of Georgia (lots of people voting) is good news and Lindsey Graham is getting far outspent by a really great candidate, but they are both deep Southern states so they'll probably all stay GOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 13 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said: Mitch McConnell trying to laugh like a human is disturbing. Strong Palpatine vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said: In Iowa, Gideon is a very slight favorite over Ernst (538 gives her a 52% chance of winning and she's been up in every poll except one since the first week of August). So that'd be a net of 4. The other 4 listed are toss-ups (at best), so maybe the Dems pull one out. Greenfield is in Iowa, Gideon is in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, visionary said: Greenfield is in Iowa, Gideon is in Maine. Little known fact: They are clones and therefore interchangeable. #WWG1WGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 10:37 PM, PleaseBlitz said: Mitch McConnell trying to laugh like a human is disturbing. I've obviously never believed the whole "lizard people" conspiracy, but that laugh makes you think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 Reaching out for the Q vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 3:19 PM, visionary said: Is it recent? I thought Emerson was sketchy? Emerson kinda sucks despite of the 538 rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 13 hours ago, dfitzo53 said: I've obviously never believed the whole "lizard people" conspiracy, but that laugh makes you think... Close. McConnell isn’t “lizard” people, he’s “turtle” people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 D leaning pollster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 To my fellow VA voters, what do you all think about the Amendment to move to a semi-independent redistricting commission on the ballot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Democrats don't generally don't turnout for runoffs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry.Randolphe Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said: To my fellow VA voters, what do you all think about the Amendment to move to a semi-independent redistricting commission on the ballot? I said yes to it - it's definitely not perfect, but it's a start in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Barry.Randolphe said: I said yes to it - it's definitely not perfect, but it's a start in the right direction. My concern is that, because it's a proposed amendment rather than piece of legislation, it would never get fixed if it passes. I guess my question is how does it compare to other attempts from states to eliminate gerrymandering from their redistricting? Will it work? Does it have a flaw that Republicans will exploit to corrupt the process? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmirOfShmo Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said: My concern is that, because it's a proposed amendment rather than piece of legislation, it would never get fixed if it passes. I guess my question is how does it compare to other attempts from states to eliminate gerrymandering from their redistricting? Will it work? Does it have a flaw that Republicans will exploit to corrupt the process? Great questions. I really wasn't prepared to vote on this when I entered the voting booth as I didn't know it was going to be on there. Yeah, not very good for a voter to not know about this PRIOR to voting, so that's on me. But I voted 'Yes' on this as I read it as an attempt to make this non-partisan. But you raise some great questions I hadn't considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said: Great questions. I really wasn't prepared to vote on this when I entered the voting booth as I didn't know it was going to be on there. Yeah, not very good for a voter to not know about this PRIOR to voting, so that's on me. But I voted 'Yes' on this as I read it as an attempt to make this non-partisan. But you raise some great questions I hadn't considered. The only reason I know about it is because of the mailers I got. I read the article about it on ballotopedia and it seems like Democrats are split in the issue, and the arguments for and against it are compelling. In theory, it sounds like a major improvement in the process. But the concerns of black representatives give me pause. They say that it is likely to shut them out of the process and doesn't offer explicit protections for minority voters. I thought it did by citing the 14th amendment, so I guess I don't fully understand their concerns. They made it seem like Republican members of the commission can just shut down the process by acting in bad faith and punt redistricting to the courts. Is that what has happened in other states who have removed redistricting power from their legislatures and governors and given it to bipartisan committees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 12th Commandment Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 I have never been through an election season where I was hit up for money by so many out of state campaigns (by text). My phone number has obviously been making the rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmirOfShmo Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 35 minutes ago, KAOSkins said: I have never been through an election season where I was hit up for money by so many out of state campaigns (by text). My phone number has obviously been making the rounds. Yeah, email address as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 47 minutes ago, KAOSkins said: I have never been through an election season where I was hit up for money by so many out of state campaigns (by text). My phone number has obviously been making the rounds. I hear ya! I spread a mere $100 around and everyone loves me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said: To my fellow VA voters, what do you all think about the Amendment to move to a semi-independent redistricting commission on the ballot? Overcomes, but better then what we have. Need to ask Virginia Tech for an algorithm, long as its people making final call no way to fully eliminate bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said: To my fellow VA voters, what do you all think about the Amendment to move to a semi-independent redistricting commission on the ballot? The Post endorsed it and did a good analysis of what it does. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/virginians-can-fight-gerrymandering-by-voting-yes-on-amendment-no-1/2020/09/27/2c712034-ff6d-11ea-8d05-9beaaa91c71f_story.html Quote The amendment would not remove politics from redistricting. But as a tough compromise struck between Democrats and Republicans in Richmond, it would form a thoroughly bipartisan commission that would forge voting districts — not in hidden backrooms, as has been the practice for decades, but in public, for all to see. To imagine that rejecting the amendment, and leaving redistricting in the hands of the legislature, would produce fairer and more balanced maps is to believe in leprechauns and forest sprites. Yet that is precisely what many elected Democrats are asking Virginia voters to believe now that they have taken exclusive control of both houses of the state legislature for the first time in a generation. So if you want "fair" or at least more fair, you should vote yes. I'm torn (and voted no). I don't necessarily want "fair." I want Democrat control because, as far as I'm concerned, the GOP has forfeited its right to govern by rejecting science in favor of Trumpism. Democrats now hold all of the levers of power and they should wield it as they were elected to do. If that situation were reversed, you can bet your ass that the GOP would gerrymander the hell out of the map. On top of that, everything about the VA legislature already favors rural Virginia over NoVa and so drawing maps that favor Democrats will de facto favor NoVa and balance the bias out somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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