The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!

[Riggo#44]

1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

Significant enough to keep from making the playoffs year after winning world series?  I get theres a lot that went into why we missed, but that and trying to trade to replace homegrown players is a red flag to me.

We've been connected to Bryant for 2-3 years now. Don't believe anything until it happens.

 

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

We arent the cardinals either, we don't have that kind of benefit of the doubt. Dodgers are 2nd in revenue, we're 11th, you suggesting keeping them both would've put us at some kind of loss moneywise?  Lerners are 6th most valuable owners, they could've done it.

We've been just as good as the Cardinals, since we broke through in 2012, if not better. We've been one of the most successful teams the last 8-9 years, in all of baseball, making the playoffs 5 times, winning a World Series. We spend in the international market, and free agency. We are the favorite to sign the #2 rated international prospect.

 

Saying we haven't earned the benefit of the doubt is willfully ignorant bc the Nats didn't shell out a half-billion dollars to two players in one offseason. 

[Renegade7]

27 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

We've been connected to Bryant for 2-3 years now. Don't believe anything until it happens.

 

ok. That sounds worse, like we always planned to replace Rendon for someone a year younger to try and save a buck, or it wasn't true then if it happens then that's what we did.

 

Quote

We've been just as good as the Cardinals, since we broke through in 2012, if not better. We've been one of the most successful teams the last 8-9 years, in all of baseball, making the playoffs 5 times, winning a World Series. We spend in the international market, and free agency. We are the favorite to sign the #2 rated international prospect.

 

Saying we haven't earned the benefit of the doubt is willfully ignorant bc the Nats didn't shell out a half-billion dollars to two players in one offseason. 

 

We just won our first playoff game in our history now we're the cardinals?  🧐

Edited November 22, 2020 by Renegade7

[TheGoodBits]

Bryant makes sense because I doubt they’re looking to give up on Kieboom yet, but it’s clear he can’t be plan A this year if we’re looking to compete. Bryant is in the last year of his deal so compensation to land him shouldn’t be crazy. My guess is two decent but not top prospects. Also wouldn’t totally dismiss the idea of trading Robles if we sign Ozuna (and the team believes in Stevenson). 
 

[Riggo#44]

10 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

We just won our first playoff game in our history now we're the cardinals?  🧐

 

Since 2012, here are the numbers:

 

Nationals: 756-600 (.583 win %) 4 Division Titles, 5 playoffs appearances, 1 Pennant, 1 WS title

Cardinals: 753-601 (.556 win %) 4 Division Titles, 6 playoff appearances, 1 Pennant, 0 WS titles

 

Don't believe me? Have a look for yourself: 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/

 

In fact, I believe the only 2 teams to win more games than us are the Dodgers and Yankees. And the Yankees haven't been in the World Series since 2009, and the Dodgers took 32 years to break through.

 

So, if you want to rant, have at it--I would love to have Rendon too--realistically it wasn't feasible. But to say that we haven't earned the benefit of the doubt is just demonstrably and factually incorrect.

20 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

Bryant makes sense because I doubt they’re looking to give up on Kieboom yet, but it’s clear he can’t be plan A this year if we’re looking to compete. Bryant is in the last year of his deal so compensation to land him shouldn’t be crazy. My guess is two decent but not top prospects. Also wouldn’t totally dismiss the idea of trading Robles if we sign Ozuna (and the team believes in Stevenson). 

 

I put 0 stock in this past year--so many external factors and just weird years from a lot of players. But Kieboom worries me, he Ks a lot and does not make a lot of hard contact. He's young and I'll be patient with him, but I am not betting on him. As for Bryant--I really doubt they bring him in, unless it's on a RizzoDark30 Protocol and we give up WIlmer Difo, Erick Fedde, and  Tim Cate.

 

I'm kind of in the tank to sign George Springer, and put him in right. That would be an OF.

[skinfan2k]

Rendon and harper were not worth their prices.  I'd argue we won a world series a year or two too late.  The transition to the young hitters was going to happen sooner or later.  

[bearrock]

17 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

Rendon and harper were not worth their prices.  I'd argue we won a world series a year or two too late.  The transition to the young hitters was going to happen sooner or later.  

 

Rendon's WAR the last five years has ranged from 4.5 to 6.4.  At 35 mil per year, he will overperform his contract during the years when he can stay above 5 WAR, be a great value at above 6 WAR, start underperforming at below 4 WAR.  

 

You will likely pay below market value for the first 3-4 years of his contract, pay market value for 1-2, and hope he doesn't dip too below market value in his last year or two (of course average cost per WAR will likely be a lot higher in 6-7 years).  If you don't want to pay 35 mil per year for age 30-36 season for a player like Rendon (who'd project to age better than a traditional slugger), you'd essentially be saying that you're out of the market on any top tier free agent hitters (so bye bye Soto?).

 

[skinfan2k]

5 hours ago, bearrock said:

 

Rendon's WAR the last five years has ranged from 4.5 to 6.4.  At 35 mil per year, he will overperform his contract during the years when he can stay above 5 WAR, be a great value at above 6 WAR, start underperforming at below 4 WAR.  

 

You will likely pay below market value for the first 3-4 years of his contract, pay market value for 1-2, and hope he doesn't dip too below market value in his last year or two (of course average cost per WAR will likely be a lot higher in 6-7 years).  If you don't want to pay 35 mil per year for age 30-36 season for a player like Rendon (who'd project to age better than a traditional slugger), you'd essentially be saying that you're out of the market on any top tier free agent hitters (so bye bye Soto?).

 

Please 2019 was not normal for Rendon.  He has one year over 5.2 and it was that year.  He is not keeping that pace at all.   I'm not paying someone like Rendon who had their best year with a top 8 player in baseball behind him.  I'm paying Rendon money to Soto who is that type of player. 

[Warhead36]

I can understand letting Harper and even Rendon go. You absolutely can not let Soto go though.

[bearrock]

19 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

Please 2019 was not normal for Rendon.  He has one year over 5.2 and it was that year.  He is not keeping that pace at all.   I'm not paying someone like Rendon who had their best year with a top 8 player in baseball behind him.  I'm paying Rendon money to Soto who is that type of player. 

 

Rendon had over 6 war three times as a Nat and projected over a full season, would've had 5.4 war last year (despite the terrible start).

 

They couldn't pay Harper cause of Rendon.  They couldn't pay Rendon cause of Soto.  You really think they'll pay whatever the market will be for a 26 year old Soto?

[skinfan2k]

2 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

Rendon had over 6 war three times as a Nat and projected over a full season, would've had 5.4 war last year (despite the terrible start).

 

They couldn't pay Harper cause of Rendon.  They couldn't pay Rendon cause of Soto.  You really think they'll pay whatever the market will be for a 26 year old Soto?

Yes because he is a generation talent.  Rendon is not even close.  He is not a team leader, he didn't make ASGs, he didn't do jack **** until 2019 as a top 15 player level.  He literally had 1 legit season and you want to crown his ass. 

[bearrock]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I can understand letting Harper and even Rendon go. You absolutely can not let Soto go though.

 

Lot of people said you can let Harper go, but not Rendon.  Or that you can lose one of the two, but not both.

 

Lerners have not shown a history of paying at or above market for hitters, Zim and Werth being the exceptions, but arguably that's from a different era with a different purpose.  The market will be absolutely astronomical for a 26 year old Soto even if he maintains this pace, much less actually improve from where he is.  None of these deferred money shenanigans is gonna fly.  Color me skeptical on the Lerners outbidding the market for Soto.

[skinfan2k]

Just now, bearrock said:

 

Lot of people said you can let Harper go, but not Rendon.  Or that you can lose one of the two, but not both.

 

Lerners have not shown a history of paying at or above market for hitters, Zim and Werth being the exceptions, but arguably that's from a different era with a different purpose.  The market will be absolutely astronomical for a 26 year old Soto even if he maintains this pace, much less actually improve from where he is.  None of these deferred money shenanigans is gonna fly.  Color me skeptical on the Lerners outbidding the market for Soto.

The lerners aren't short sighted like you are.  Why the hell would you pay above value for Harper and Rendon when in theory Soto came to our team and produced from Day 1.  They figured they had a window to buy Corbin and use the current nucleus to win a championship thru heavy money on pitching.  When Max leaves, It will be the inverse where we have cheap arms and our money is going to the offense. 

[Riggo#44]

It's all really moot. We're in a rebuild whether we want to admit it or not...

 

[bearrock]

2 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

Yes because he is a generation talent.  Rendon is not even close.  He is not a team leader, he didn't make ASGs, he didn't do jack **** until 2019 as a top 15 player level.  He literally had 1 legit season and you want to crown his ass. 

 

You do realize Soto being a generational talent also means he's going to command hell of a lot more than Rendon right?

 

Also, Rendon finished top 5 in MVP twice, 6th and 11th each once.  So out of the 6 full seasons in DC, he finished in top 11 of MVP voting 4 times, three times in top 6.  Didn't do jack till 2019....🙄

[skinfan2k]

Just now, bearrock said:

 

You do realize Soto being a generational talent also means he's going to command hell of a lot more than Rendon right?

 

Also, Rendon finished top 5 in MVP twice, 6th and 11th each once.  So out of the 6 full seasons in DC, he finished in top 11 of MVP voting 4 times, three times in top 6.  Didn't do jack till 2019....🙄

 

Generational Talent aka worth paying for lol.  He didn't even have 35-100 until 2019 lol.  I'm not paying someone to bat .280 25 90 rbis top dollar money lol

[bearrock]

2 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

 

Generational Talent aka worth paying for lol.  He didn't even have 35-100 until 2019 lol.  I'm not paying someone to bat .280 25 90 rbis top dollar money lol

Yeah, all those MVP ballots must have been rigged or something.

[Mr. Sinister]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I can understand letting Harper and even Rendon go. You absolutely can not let Soto go though.

 

They will. 

[EmirOfShmo]

I guess I missed the news that Michael A. Taylor is gone. He had that one good year in '17. I thought he would build off of that year but it just never happened.

Apologies if this has already been posted.  

 

The Nationals' non-tender candidates are already off the roster. At the beginning of the offseason, their top candidate was the reliever Roenis Elías, who didn't pitch in 2020 because of a left forearm flexor strain and has appeared in a total of three innings for Washington since being acquired from the Mariners in '19. But Elías cleared outright waivers and declared free agency on Oct. 10. Less than a week later, backup outfielder Michael A. Taylor -- another non-tender candidate -- also elected free agency after clearing outright waivers, ending his tenure with the Nats after seven seasons. Washington inked left-handed reliever Sam Clay this month, and the club has questions to answer in the outfield after declining its option on right fielder Adam Eaton.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-non-tender-candidates

 

[Warhead36]

I can understand trading Scherzer but not Turner. He can still be a building block.

 

If Rizzo feels we need to rebuild though I trust him. The worst thing you can do in baseball is hang on to guys for too long. Billy Beane said it best: by the time you wait to rebuild, you're already probably a year too late. At least the current core was able to cash in and win a World Series.

 

The last thing I want is for us to turn into the Phillies: after 2008 they kept trotting out vets and quickly devolved into a husk of a former good team.

 

But rebuilding doesn't mean you let go of everyone. When the Braves retooled they kept Freddie Freeman. I imagine we'd do the same with Soto.

Edited November 25, 2020 by Warhead36

[KDawg]

The 888 on this forum looks like the 8 is upside down and it's driving me insane. Small o on top, large O on bottom. This has it reversed and it is bothering me immensely.

 

As far as trading guys... Giving some guys up is not great. But the fact is that baseball is different than most sports. No real cap aside from your owner's ceiling. "Systems" aren't really a thing. A guy can play for Atlanta one day and the next day be on the Tokyo All-Star team and still be able to play baseball all the same. 

 

Rosters are so fluid in baseball, too.

 

The only guy I wouldn't move on from right now is Soto. There's some others I probably wouldn't move but there's no reason to hang on to some of these guys for sentiment. 

[Riggo#44]

On 11/25/2020 at 10:02 AM, Warhead36 said:

The last thing I want is for us to turn into the Phillies: after 2008 they kept trotting out vets and quickly devolved into a husk of a former good team.

Which is why you don't sign both Strasburg and Rendon. Time will tell if we kept the right one, so we'll see, but keeping both is suicide.

The other thing the Phillies did poorly then was draft. We haven't been spectacular in the draft, but we have been in the international market. 

[Riggo#44]

 

[“Misdirection”]

When did Spencer Kieboom retire? Saw that floating around Twitter today. Wasn’t he in the future plans? 

[EmirOfShmo]

Kieboom decided to retire from professional baseball shortly after the 2019 season, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.

The 29-year-old older brother of Nationals infielder Carter Kieboom, Spencer noted that his playing days were over while he discussed his post-career plans in his interview with Dougherty. Kieboom, a 2012 fifth-round pick of Washington, spent his entire career in the organization, appearing in 53 games in the majors and slashing .232/.326/.320 with two home runs and 13 RBI.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/spencer-kieboom-retires-from-baseball/

[TheGoodBits]

40 minutes ago, LLandryistheshiz said:

When did Spencer Kieboom retire? Saw that floating around Twitter today. Wasn’t he in the future plans? 

Nah. Just a guy and he figured that out.