The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!

[StillUnknown]

NBC Sports Racing Presidents podcast is a pretty good listen. District on Deck as well, although they don't put out quite as much as the other one.

[Warhead36]

Harper should just resign here for 2-3 years with an extra year player option. I'll gladly give him ~30 mil a year if its only for a few years. Try FA again when you're still in your late 20s and every much in your prime.

[StillUnknown]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Harper should just resign here for 2-3 years with an extra year player option. I'll gladly give him ~30 mil a year if its only for a few years. Try FA again when you're still in your late 20s and every much in your prime.

 

pride might be the only thing more expensive than his contract

 

can't see him or boras accepting any long term deal below Stanton's figure or any short term figure that below Greinke's AAV. Nobody really expected the Nats initial offer to be the best on the table, but here we are and that deal probably isn't there anymore either.

 

either way, this is becoming terrible for baseball overall. Baseball's been pumping up this offseason for years. Teams were supposedly not spending in years previous so they could spend now. Instead 3 of your games best players are still hanging out and a long list of quality players just waiting behind them with spring training about to start.

Edited February 13, 2019 by StillUnknown

[Dan T.]

Enjoy:

 

 

[CRobi21]

 

[Dan T.]

See the warm blue skies, the puffy clouds?  See the players so close you can hear their uniforms riffle as they stretch?  That's spring training in Florida. 

[OVCChairman]

4 hours ago, Dan T. said:

Enjoy:

 

 

 

He plugs the gap in right center so effortlessly.  

[StillUnknown]

 

[OVCChairman]

15 hours ago, StillUnknown said:

 

 

 

If we can get a hold of a decent young First Baseman for Zimm to pass the torch, our Infield has the making of being one of the best in baseball for a LOONNGG time... Rendon, Turner, Kieboom...   Not pushing Zimm out, just meaning long term. 

Edited February 15, 2019 by OVCChairman

[OVCChairman]

19 hours ago, CRobi21 said:

 

 

 

 

If Scherzer was a prospect now, i feel like he'd be vastly overlooked because his form, delivery, delivery angle, and overall motion aren't what's 'preferred'.  

[Riggo#44]

14 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

If Scherzer was a prospect now, i feel like he'd be vastly overlooked because his form, delivery, delivery angle, and overall motion aren't what's 'preferred'.  

 

What's funny is, most analysts thought Scherzer would be a closer for that reason.

 

I love prospects, but they're so, so volotile.

[OVCChairman]

30 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

What's funny is, most analysts thought Scherzer would be a closer for that reason.

 

I love prospects, but they're so, so volotile.

 

 

I love the science of sports, but sometimes I feel like it gets in the way...

 

Not sure if you've ever seen it, but a move with Clint Eastwood called "Trouble with the Curve" is an awesome depiction of it.  It's a bit more rom-com than I would have liked, and not as much Baseball, but a good movie still. 

[Popeman38]

1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

If we can get a hold of a decent young First Baseman for Zimm to pass the torch, our Infield has the making of being one of the best in baseball for a LOONNGG time... Rendon, Turner, Kieboom...   Not pushing Zimm out, just meaning long term. 

 

Cross fingers Harper re-signs, move Soto to 1st, Eaton-Robles-Harper.

Edited February 15, 2019 by Popeman38

[OVCChairman]

2 minutes ago, Popeman38 said:

 

Cross fingers Harper re-signs, move Soto to 1st, Eaton-Robles-Harper.

 

 

Then it's almost a lock you move on from Rendon, and possibly also Turner. 

[Popeman38]

6 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

Then it's almost a lock you move on from Rendon, and possibly also Turner. 

Shenanigans.

 

Player|$$$|(Replacement)

Zimm|$18M|(Soto)

Dozier|$9|(Kieboom)

Adams|$3M|(TBD)

Hellickson|$1.3M|(Ross/Fedde)

Total $31.3M <-- Pays for Rendon with ~$7M left over. Competitive Balance tax level goes up to $208M in 2020.

 

Even if Bryce signs for 10y/$300M with $0 deferred and split evenly among all 10 years (almost a 0% chance), that bumps the Competitive Balance pay to $226,322,709. Of that, $20,322,709 is taxed at 20%, so the Nats would owe $4,064,542 in Competitive Balance tax (a little finagling with contract can get that down to almost $0). Next year, with a Rendon extension and the Competitive Balance tax going up, would be even less over the threshold. 

 

[OVCChairman]

25 minutes ago, Popeman38 said:

Shenanigans.

 

Player|$$$|(Replacement)

Zimm|$18M|(Soto)

Dozier|$9|(Kieboom)

Adams|$3M|(TBD)

Hellickson|$1.3M|(Ross/Fedde)

Total $31.3M <-- Pays for Rendon with ~$7M left over. Competitive Balance tax level goes up to $208M in 2020.

 

Even if Bryce signs for 10y/$300M with $0 deferred and split evenly among all 10 years (almost a 0% chance), that bumps the Competitive Balance pay to $226,322,709. Of that, $20,322,709 is taxed at 20%, so the Nats would owe $4,064,542 in Competitive Balance tax (a little finagling with contract can get that down to almost $0). Next year, with a Rendon extension and the Competitive Balance tax going up, would be even less over the threshold. 

 

 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/2020/

 

 

According to this, for 2020 when Rendon is a free agent, we're $39 mil UNDER lux tax but this does not include Rendon, Turner (arbitration), Soto, or anyone else facing arbitration. 

 

Harper and Rendon ALONE eat up that $40 mil and there's only 11 players listed there NOT facing arbitration... and that doesnt include a 2nd basement (likely Kieboom) 

 

 

Now I'm seeing that there's a club option for Zimm for $18 mil with a buyout for $2 mil but that still doesnt clear enough room to pay Harper $20+ if some is deferred, and pay Rendon $15+ if some is deferred, and also field a team without going way over the luxury tax for the long term considering Soto, Turner, Kieboom, and others are likely to be coming up for contracts prior to Rendon / Harper's contracts expiring.  

Edited February 15, 2019 by OVCChairman

[Popeman38]

24 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/2020/

 

 

According to this, for 2020 when Rendon is a free agent, we're $39 mil UNDER lux tax but this does not include Rendon, Turner (arbitration), Soto, or anyone else facing arbitration. 

 

Harper and Rendon ALONE eat up that $40 mil and there's only 11 players listed there NOT facing arbitration... and that doesnt include a 2nd basement (likely Kieboom) 

 

 

Now I'm seeing that there's a club option for Zimm for $18 mil with a buyout for $2 mil but that still doesnt clear enough room to pay Harper $20+ if some is deferred, and pay Rendon $15+ if some is deferred, and also field a team without going way over the luxury tax for the long term considering Soto, Turner, Kieboom, and others are likely to be coming up for contracts prior to Rendon / Harper's contracts expiring.  

Yes, but Zimm is still there for $18M. The team will opt out of his contract after this season (virtual certainty). That takes the team to $57M under the tax. Harper and Rendon (with no deferrals or other AAV manipulations) would count for ~$53M.

 

The point is that with some accounting creativity you can drop under the tax threshold for a season and reset to 20%. You only pay 20% on the dollars over the tax, so even if you go crazy and go $80M over the tax, you owe $16M. We are talking about going up to $20M over, which means the Lerners would owe $4M. You telling me having Bryce signed here long term doesn't bring in $4M? And the MASN adjudication will happen eventually, resulting in an influx in excess of $100M up front, and likely an additional ~$60M annually.

 

It's very doable.

[OVCChairman]

3 minutes ago, Popeman38 said:

Yes, but Zimm is still there for $18M. The team will opt out of his contract after this season (virtual certainty). That takes the team to $57M under the tax. Harper and Rendon (with no deferrals or other AAV manipulations) would count for ~$53M.

 

The point is that with some accounting creativity you can drop under the tax threshold for a season and reset to 20%. You only pay 20% on the dollars over the tax, so even if you go crazy and go $80M over the tax, you owe $16M. We are talking about going up to $20M over, which means the Lerners would owe $4M. You telling me having Bryce signed here long term doesn't bring in $4M? And the MASN adjudication will happen eventually, resulting in an influx in excess of $100M up front, and likely an additional ~$60M annually.

 

It's very doable.

 

I agree it's doable... pretty much anything is DOABLE.  I just dont think it's likely that they retain all of these other pieces if were going to be giving Harper what he wants AND remaining true to the initial statements that were put out by ownership.

 

 

For the record, i personally WANT us to keep Harper, as well as Rendon and others.  If I had the decision to make and the financials decision making, I'd be planning on having Harper, Rendon, and Turner be in all star games wearing the curly W for the foreseeable future.... problem is it appears to be deeper than just writing a check.

[bearrock]

We can also decline the option on Rosenthal and pick up another 13m room in 2020.  Even if we have to go a little over in 2020, we'll get ample room in 2021, so coming back down below the tax to avoid repeat offender won't be a problem.  It would not be genuine if the Nats try to say that they thought Harper was worth 30 million, but they could no longer afford it.  If they want to say that Harper is not worth 30 per year for the next 10 years and that money is better spent elsewhere, maybe I could buy that.  But they can fit in Harper's contract if they thought the contract in a vacuum is worth it.

[OVCChairman]

17 minutes ago, bearrock said:

We can also decline the option on Rosenthal and pick up another 13m room in 2020.  Even if we have to go a little over in 2020, we'll get ample room in 2021, so coming back down below the tax to avoid repeat offender won't be a problem.  It would not be genuine if the Nats try to say that they thought Harper was worth 30 million, but they could no longer afford it.  If they want to say that Harper is not worth 30 per year for the next 10 years and that money is better spent elsewhere, maybe I could buy that.  But they can fit in Harper's contract if they thought the contract in a vacuum is worth it.

 

 

 

You bring up a key point that i didn't mention, and @Popeman38 i'm sorry I didnt mention it in part of my response.

 

This is all assuming that Harper signes for 10 years / $300 million... the original offer. 

 

I'm not convinced he takes that deal.  Boras is an agent, and his goal is to get Harper the most possible money he can.  He also has an ego.  To sign with Washington for that amount would be slap in his face, as well as set a concerning precedent for his MLB clients going forward.  Harper and his camp didnt even counter our offer of 10 / 300... IMHO that only happens for 2 reasons.

 

1. They believed they were going to get a lot more money

2. He doesn't want to play here 

 

We can all ASSUME that no. 2 is not the case, and the primary factor is the $$.  What would Boras' clients say to him if he came back and signed a deal after not even OFFERING a counter?  His abilities would be majorly questioned, especially with the current trends in MLB of player contracts.   I would be SERIOUSLY surprised if we were able to sign Harper for that original offer.  It's RUMORED that Harper isn't willing to take a short term deal either, and that's the snag that held up him signing with the Giants (Phillies supposedly haven't made an official offer either btw).  So if we hope to get Harper, I think we have to stay in that 8-10 year range, and $35 mil is now the floor, unless he has absolutely no other choice. 

 

It actually wouldn't completely blow me away if it comes out that Harper signs a 1 year deal, with a 2nd year option, somewhere just to try and reset the market, and it would cost likely $37.5 - $40 mil per year to get that to happen.  

Edited February 15, 2019 by OVCChairman

[Dan T.]

Can't we just put the franchise tag on him for 2 years at $40 million per, and then say goodbye when he signs with the Minnesota Vikings Twins?

[PleaseBlitz]

Boras can't control the market.  What he thinks he was going to get does not matter.  Boras' track record is too long for one offseason, that was terrible for everyone except for like 3 guys, is going to harm his reputation.  

 

The Nats are not going to sign Harper to a one year deal.  Someone might, I guess. 

[OVCChairman]

7 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Boras can't control the market.  What he thinks he was going to get does not matter.  Boras' track record is too long for one offseason, that was terrible for everyone except for like 3 guys, is going to harm his reputation.  

 

The Nats are not going to sign Harper to a one year deal.  Someone might, I guess. 

 

 

It's not just 1 offseason... 

 

J. D. Martinez and Hosmer were pushed to the limit last year.  Scherzer has even come out and said that Free Agency is essentially a joke now.  All the while Bryce turned down one of the biggest contracts in professional sports, very likely at the suggestion of Boras.  Free Agents, especially the ones who are signing possibly their final contract, are not going to be happy sitting at home on 2/15 when pitchers and catchers are practicing knowing that it was on the table and very likely is now gone.

 

And Boras is supposed to be the closest with the Lerners... just look at the Wieters deal. 

Edited February 15, 2019 by OVCChairman

[PleaseBlitz]

JD Martinez got $110 million over 5 years, and he can opt out after year 2 (having made $50 million) or year 3 (having made $72 million).  

 

And I agree, FA is a joke.  You said "His [Boras'] abilities would be majorly questioned"  Like, how is the FA market being ****ty for everyone Boras' fault in any way?

[Barry.Randolphe]

Has anyone been to some other spring training venues for the NL East teams? Just wondering how those compare to the Nats' new park.