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The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!

Riggo#44

By Riggo#44
in The Tailgate

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Warhead36

Warhead36

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bearrock said:

So two of the rule changes being discussed are 3 hitter minimum for pitcher (except for injury and end inning situation) and universal DH.  If they were to be implemented, wouldn't this raise the value of Harper for an NL team?  

 

HIs career split difference for RHP v LHP is pretty significant (especially the power numbers)

 

I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
  vs RHP 852   2782 2304 461 663 122 12 147 369 56 18 436 551 .288 .402 .543 .944 1250 46 17 3 22 64 15 .317 110
  vs LHP 587   1175 1002 149 259 61 6 37 152 19 13 149 283 .258 .354 .442 .796 443 20 6 6 12 6 8 .320 78
  vs RHP as LHB 852   2782 2304   663 122 12 147 369 0 0 436 551 .288 .402 .543 .944 1250 46 17 3 22 64 15 .317 110
  vs LHP as LHB 587   1175 1002   259 61 6 37 152 0 0 149 283 .258 .354 .442 .796 443 20 6 6 12 6 8 .320 78
  vs RH Starter 689 680 2980 2489 455 704 130 13 149 405 58 22 446 606 .283 .391 .525 .916 1307 49 12 6 27 51 17 .315 103
  vs LH Starter 238 220 977 817 155 218 53 5 35 116 17 9 139 228 .267 .378 .472 .850 386 17 11 3 7 19 6 .326 9

3 hitter minimum for a pitcher is dumb. I like the strategy late in games with bringing in different pitchers for different hitters, especially in the postseason.

 

Absolutely agree with universal DH though. Its so stupid to have half the teams in a sport play with a different rule set.

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TheGoodBits

TheGoodBits

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, CRobi21 said:

Phillies closing in on Realmuto.....

 

NL East gonna be a slaughterhouse this year.

 

Baseball Prospectus released their projections today, has Nats and Mets at 89 wins, Atl and Philly at 84 wins. Obviously those numbers change if Philly gets Realmuto/Harper/Machado. 

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bearrock

bearrock

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

If they get Realmuto, does that take them out of the Harper non-sweepstakes.  

 

Harper zzzzzzstakes?

 

 

 

if Phillies really end up giving up Sixto, Alfaro + a third top prospect, then it might make them more inclined to go all in sooner rather than later.  Not sure I get that trade though.  Not sure 2 years of Realmuto is good enough to give up all of that, but that's a chatter right now anyway.  Alfaro has looked very good so far and probably a better framer than Realmuto anyway.  Then Sixto on top of that and more?  That's quite the haul for the Marlins.

 

The weird part of it all is that apparently Harper hasn't gotten any formal offer from the Phillies and Machado's highest offer so far has been 7/175 from the Whitesox, per Boz.  So when Middleton was talking about stupid money, just what was he talking about anyway?  

 

Edit:  Done deal apparently.  The third piece isn't bad.

 

 

Edited by bearrock
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@DCGoldPants

@DCGoldPants

Posted
Posted (edited)

Realmuto is legit One of the if not THE best catcher in MLB. Hitting in a smaller park will be nice for him in the warmer months. Phillies were willing to give up their #1 pitching prospect. So, props to them for spending big there.

 

I don't know if I would have wanted to do that if it were the Nats and we had a guy like Sixto.

 

 

Also, RIP Frank. Thank you for being our first manager for the franchise in DC.

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Edited by @SkinsGoldPants
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bearrock

bearrock

Posted
Posted (edited)

Were there people who were offended by that term "DL"?  No big deal, but seems out of the blue.

 

2 hours ago, @SkinsGoldPants said:

Realmuto is legit One of the if not THE best catcher in MLB. Hitting in a smaller park will be nice for him in the warmer months. Phillies were willing to give up their #1 pitching prospect. So, props to them for spending big there.

 

I don't know if I would have wanted to do that if it were the Nats and we had a guy like Sixto.

 

I think Realmuto trade is colored by two factors.  While Realmuto is one of the best catchers in MLB and arguably the best, he is not heads and shoulders above like Posey was.  And his offense isn't dominant like Mauer was and defense isn't at the level of Molina in his prime.  I think some of the biggest draws were his age, his trend of continued improvement, and a clear home/road split that showed his hitting numbers hampered at home.

 

Second factor is that while Realmuto would've represented a tremendous upgrade for a team like pre FA Nats, Alfaro is a real promising player at catcher.  His offensive numbers were very nice for such a young catcher and he frames pitches well (which Realmuto graded really badly until last year, when he wasn't as horrible, but certainly nowhere near elite level).  Although Realmuto is great at gunning down steals, Alfaro has a cannon for an arm.  2 years of Realmuto vs 5 years of Alfaro and throw a top pitching prospect on top, that's a odd trade imo unless you're going all in within the next few years.

 

EDIT: Apparently Realmuto is willing to talk extension with the Phillies, which would make the trade more sensible for them.  And that may indeed be a game changer on the Harper front.

Edited by bearrock
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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

Posted
Posted

Interesting nugget from Boz's chat this morning.  Nothing groundbreaking, but interesting. 

 

Quote

Q: Pitching on the Farm
Hello Boz, With all of the pitching prospects the Nats have traded away in the past 2 years (Pivetta, R Lopez, Giolito among others), do you know if they currently project anybody in their organization as at least a middle-of-the rotation starter aside from (maybe) Joe Ross or Fedde? With their top arms on the big club all over 30 or close to it, I would be concerned about this if I were Rizzo.

 

A: Thomas Boswell
The BIGGEST reason that the Nats may not __and at the moment looks like "probably won't"__ sign Harper is the overall poor state of the Nats starting pitching at the end of '18, both in the majors and the minors. Harper's departure, if that's how it ends up, has far more to do with the Nats need for starting pitching now __and probably down the line, too__ than it does with Harper himself.

 

What if ANY TWO of these things had happened?

 

Joe Ross never gets hurts, or comes back from injury looking like a mortal lock No. 3 starter. At one time, that's what the Nats thought he was. Or Erick Fedde, a first round draft pick, has developed into a quality starter. 

 

Or if the Tanner Roark of '17-'18 had been a continuation of the 2.85 ERA Roark of '14 and '16?

 

Or even if post-age-30 Gio Gonzalez had turned out to be a speed-changing soft-tossing rubber-armed lefty that the Nats could, perhaps, have extended for several years. Histiory is full of junk-balling leftie3s who kept going forever.

 

What if Lucas Giolito had been so dominant when he was called up late in '16 that NOBDY would have thought of trading him?! When he was drafted, he was supposed to be the Next Starsburg. By the time he came up, he couldn't even get a swing-and-miss out of anybody, looked like he'd lost speed and confidence. That ALONE, if Giolito had been the Giolito who was touted, would have made a uge difference. They traded him, in part, because they saw what may fans and reporters saw __probably not a top-of-rotation guy and maybe not that good at all. If Lucas had panned out FAST __he might still become good__ then we might be talking about how the Nats fine pitching pipeline allowed them to pour tions of resources into signing Harper.

 

The opposite happened. NOBODY developed. Only the pitchers that they got, or kept, by spending huge amounts of money __Max and Stras for a combined $385-million__ are still in the rotation. They HAD to sign either Corbin or Keuchel this winter if they were going to contend in '19-'20-'21 while they still had Max and Stras under contract.

When the Nats look FAR into the future, they face the same issue. Max's deal is up after '21. What will it cost to extend him, if he's still very good? Very expensive. Or replace him if age catches up with him. That's very expensive, too. And, remember, Scherzer's "seven-year contract" is really a 14-year contract for $15M-a-year with all his deferred money. His original deal will be impacting the Nats expenses __the actual money spent, year to year, although not the luxury tax computation__ through '28. 

 

What happens when Strasburg's deal is finished in '23? How will his arm hold up until then? If you had a great pitching pipeline, you could say, "Let's take a chance on a huge long-term spend on Harper because we know our pitching will carry us, no matter what."

 

The situation is exactly the reverse. When the Nats look at the future they have to say, "Our OUTFIELDERS will probably carry us for many years. And our rising MIDDLE INFIELDERS. We'll have Soto through '24. We'll have Robles through '25 (I think). We even have Adam Eaton through '21. Trea Turner is ours for four more years. Our hot minor league shortstops --Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia-- haven't even made the majors yet! They might still be our middle infield in 2026! THAT'S where we save money! We should NOT spend on outfielders (like Harper) or middle infielders. We need to save that money for PITCHING in the '20's."

 

Which pitchers? Which years? As free agents? In high salary-trades? Who knows? But the Nats know that they will probably have to spend a lot of money on starting pitchers to remain contenders and spend it for a long time.

 

They CAN (probably).

 

But you have to economize somewhere. Maybe on $325M outfielders.

 

What amazing, in the light of all this is that the Nats offered Harper $300M for 10 years in September!! When they KNEW they had to go out and buy starting pitching! If they had never made an offer, it might have been rational. Fans would have gone nuts. It might have damaged relationships with Boras and his clients. And it would NOT have continued the Nats pattern of always making a big (but team friendly) offer to free agents before they could leave __Desmond ($105M), Zimmermann ($123M), Zimmerman, Strasburg. They even offered Wilson Ramos $30M (before he blew out his knee late in '16), even though they assumed he'd go to the AL has a DH after surgery/rehab. But they MADE HIM AN OFFER. Call it a "thank you," or just good form. Ramos ended up (after his injury) going to the AL (Tampa Bay) for two years and $12.5M.

 

Now that the Nats HAVE spent $198M on new players this winter, plus plenty more if players hit vesting levels for '20  (Trevor Rosenthal is guaranteed another $19M if he just appears in 50 games this year) or the Nats exercise team options (like ~$10M-a-year for '20 and '21 for Yan Gomes), are they STILL in position __I mean sensible position__ to offer Harper a huge contract even if, for example, it is "only" for five years or seven years?

 

Everything I wrote about earlier __all the likely need for expensive extensions or new deals for more starting pitching over the next five years__ are NOT GOING AWAY just because Harper decides, "I'd like to come back, but for fewer than 10 years."

 

Yes, maybe you could probably put Eaton in a deal for a starting pitcher. But the main point is: It's complicated! And the Nats No. 1 need __because their young pitching pipeline DIDN'T pan out or got traded, including good relievers in deadline deals__ is NOT an outfielder, any outfielder. Their need is SP __Corbin now, and probably others over the next few years. Ted is rich. But he's not "as rich as Croesus."

— FEB 11, 2019 12:27 PM

 

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superozman

superozman

Posted
Posted

The dumpster pool is still epic.

 

As a Phillies fan, hoping they get Harper...then they can add Kuechel just like Arrieta last year, a late snag for someone who is unsigned.   Thats greedy, but i figured why not be greedy.

 

I do think this is a 3 way race between the Nats, Braves and Phils.  The Mets will be improved but I just don't see it being contender worthy.

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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, @SkinsGoldPants said:

Boz is spot on with the development of pitchers. But if feels like as he tried to go from A → B, he got sidetracked to the outfield. I get the bottom dollar aspect. But his take is kind of flimsy on that. We'll see. But the Stras in 2023 to Harper connection is all over the place. 

 

Yea.  For such a good writer, Boz's chats are usually all over the place, and he can't type for ****.  End of the day, my takeaway is that, even though Rizzo's fundamental philosophy of roster construction is pitching, pitching, pitching, for a multitude of reasons the Nat's current MLB roster and pipeline is largely FA starting pitchers and homegrown position players.  They really need 1 or 2 starting pitchers in the pipeline to pan out soon.  

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@DCGoldPants

@DCGoldPants

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Yea.  For such a good writer, Boz's chats are usually all over the place, and he can't type for ****.  End of the day, my takeaway is that, even though Rizzo's fundamental philosophy of roster construction is pitching, pitching, pitching, for a multitude of reasons the Nat's current MLB roster and pipeline is largely FA starting pitchers and homegrown position players.  They really need 1 or 2 starting pitchers in the pipeline to pan out soon.  

 

That's all I got from it too. They've draft what everyone thought were high potential guys. Does that mean they scouting was wrong? Maybe the developmental coaching? I don't know.

I agree that his chats are a mess and slow. It's like he's either being bothered to do it, or he's over the top with it.

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