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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


Going Commando

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12 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

So we've picked up DRC and Flowers to make up the numbers at DB and OL. I could see a further move for Copeland at OLB. Vet pick ups.

 

Smells to me like we could be makings plans to trade some draft picks away. Just a guess.

 

Eh, this is just standard insurance in case the draft shakes out weird.  DRC is 33 years old and last good season was in 2016.  While Flowers is still very young, he hasn't developed at all.  Mark Bullock just did a piece on Flowers, and as everyone expected, it doesn't look good.  Hand fighting is non-existent, he doesn't punch, and when he engages against guys lined up opposite/off-his-shoulder, his arm path is just about as bad as it can get.  It practically begs for the DE/DT to win leverage immediately.  Our vaunted OL Coach will have his work cut out for him.

 

Just judging from the stats, it looks like Copeland would be a better caliber of player than DRC/Flowers are right now.  Maybe Dion Jordan or Derrick Morgan would be in the same vein as the others?  Or bringing back Pernell McPhee?

 

Anyways, I don't think any of these pickups affect the draft in any way.

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12 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

So we've picked up DRC and Flowers to make up the numbers at DB and OL. I could see a further move for Copeland at OLB. Vet pick ups.

 

Smells to me like we could be makings plans to trade some draft picks away. Just a guess.

UK I think they fill in for a year while we select players in the draft to hopefully take their place.  We have to hit it right on these players in the draft so they can fill the holes of these 1 year signings.  Just my guess.

2 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Eh, this is just standard insurance in case the draft shakes out weird.  DRC is 33 years old and last good season was in 2016.  While Flowers is still very young, he hasn't developed at all.  Mark Bullock just did a piece on Flowers, and as everyone expected, it doesn't look good.  Hand fighting is non-existent, he doesn't punch, and when he engages against guys lined up opposite/off-his-shoulder, his arm path is just about as bad as it can get.  It practically begs for the DE/DT to win leverage immediately.  Our vaunted OL Coach will have his work cut out for him.

 

Just judging from the stats, it looks like Copeland would be a better caliber of player than DRC/Flowers are right now.  Maybe Dion Jordan or Derrick Morgan would be in the same vein as the others?  Or bringing back Pernell McPhee?

 

Anyways, I don't think any of these pickups affect the draft in any way.

No to Pernell McPhee.  He was a bust last year, IMO.  :)

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5 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

So we've picked up DRC and Flowers to make up the numbers at DB and OL. I could see a further move for Copeland at OLB. Vet pick ups.

 

Smells to me like we could be makings plans to trade some draft picks away. Just a guess.

Or just focusing on other areas. Maybe if they feel like they have Flowers and Cooper, for instance, that they can go with Edge and WR early in the draft.

 

In an ideal world, I think they would grab Rosen. Would count for little against the cap, keeps him off the Giants, and frees us to go BPA in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd. 

 

I'm kind of sad that signing Collins likely crosses Johnathan Abram off our list. I really like Abram. I wonder if there is a defensive scheme that would allow us to feature both. The Chargers played no LB's against the Ravens, with great success. Collins and Abram are both basically very fast and agile linebackers, with some coverage skill. I guess I wouldn't change my scheme to fit one prospect that I really like, but I also don't think I'd take Abram off of my draft board after signing Collins. Abram would be pretty useful against Saquon and Elliot. 

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/1/11/18172125/los-angeles-chargers-defense-baltimore-ravens-linebackers

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Regarding Copeland, the smart move here is waiting to make a signing until after the draft or at least waiting a couple weeks. I guarantee there will be higher quality guys available for 1-year deals. 

 

Simple supply and demand. A lot of these guys are not getting signed because this draft is full of EDGEs who can start day 1

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The more I am hearing about Lock, the more I like about him as a prospect. In order to make sure we get him, we'll probably have to move up to #9 (meaning the Bills pick) because there is a good chance the Broncos take him if he is there at #10

 

Rather than giving up a 2nd or 3rd to do so, I'd rather package #15 with Matty I for a number of reasons

 

1) Matty I should be appealing to the Bills. They have Harrison Phillips slotted in as a starter currently

2) Long term, we won't be able to afford keeping all three of Payne, Allen and Ioannidis. Out of those three, I'd focus on keeping Payne and Allen. Either way, given the amount he is likely to command on the open market, it is going to be very tough to hold on to Ioannidis after this year

3) We have Settle who can step in right away as a starter for Ioannidis and may actually be able to do more in the run game. Ioannidis also has not proven to be the most durable - he missed a lot of games in 2017 and missed a few last year

4) Given the depth on DL in this draft, we can find ourselves solid cheap rookie deal type of depth on the DL in rds 3 or 5 or we can just make Caleb Brantley, who didn't get much PT last year despite his talent, the top reserve on the DL

 

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BURST/ARC SPEED

Make no mistake about it, there are some explosive edge rushers in this class. I asked a starting NFL offensive tackle the other day what athletic trait he feared most in opposing edge defenders, and his responses was 1. change of direction 2. explosiveness. We’ll get to the first one a little bit later under “Counters”, but there are plenty of rushers in this class who can threaten with their first step or speed up the arc.

I think Burns can time up his first step a little bit more, but his speed up the arc is among the best in the class. Allen was curiously more explosive when he was allowed to work from a 3-point stance in a handful of snaps last year, but he’ll likely stay in a two most of the time in the NFL. Polite has unbelievable quickness to corner, but a slight recoil in his first step dropped him a bit in this area for me. 

The only concerning prospects in this category are Ferrell, Miller and Winovich. Ferrell erupts to life off the snap, but gains such little ground with his second or third steps that cornering is almost always a challenge. Miller is just late off the ball and false steps from a two-point stance, although his long strides can eat up ground once he gets going.

This is the area where Winovich takes a hit. He just isn’t super explosive and won’t threaten with burst off the ball. Tons of other traits working for him, but this is his kryptonite.

 

BEND/FLEXIBILITY

Big separation category, as edge defenders primarily win on the outside track in the NFL, and cornering is a critical area of success. 

I see Burns, Allen, Bosa, Polite and Miller as standouts in this category, while Winovich is a lot better than he’s given credit for. He can dip under contact and finish at the top of the arc as an edge rusher, all despite not being super twitched up off the snap. 

This is an area of struggle for two players in particular, Ferrell and Sweat. Ferrell can drop the inside shoulder and tilt a bit, but he doesn’t have the flexibility to turn tight corners to the pocket without softening the edge with his hands a good bit. Sweat also gets hung up on contact a good bit,

 

RUSH MOVES

Bosa and Ferrell set the standard here, each boasting a deadly pair of mitts that can seamlessly stack move on top of move. Burns and Winovich are also masterful with their hands and body control to keep offensive tackles off balance. If Burns can add a power element to his game, he could become the most complete edge rusher in the class.

Allen is still developing in this area, but took big leaps forward in 2018 when compared to the two years prior. His two-hand swipe and chop-dip at the top of the arc were big assets on his way to 17 sacks. Miller loves the cross-chop, and Sweat hits the rare long arm-snatch-rip combo on occasion.

Gary is clearly the player with the furthest to go in this area, as his pass rush plans often lack intricacy despite his natural talent.

 

COUNTERS

The ability to work to a secondary move when your first move doesn’t work or set up a two-way go for yourself as a pass rusher is highly important. I mentioned above how an NFL offensive tackle told me that change-of-direction or rushers that can set up and access a two-lane path to the quarterback are the most deadly to handle 1v1. The following is what he explained to me:

"Change of direction causes you to be a little more honest in your set. If it's a speed-only guy you can set deeper to take it away and know they won't really counter inside to beat you. But if you over-set a change-of-direction guy, he'll go inside and beat you. To me, change-of-direction guys take advantage of your weaknesses better."

 

With this in mind, Burns and Ferrell have an excellent array of counters, while Polite’s quick change-of-direction allow him to be deadly on speed-counter rushes, even if his process isn’t fully developed....

RUN DEFENSE

The top four in this category are standouts, and Burns did an unbelievable job as a run defender considering he played significantly lighter than anyone else on this list. He is hardly ever overpowered, playing assignment sound football and consistently making plays behind the line of scrimmage.

Allen isn’t as good at the point of attack as Burns, which hurts his score some. Gary’s issues are more on the mental processing and technique side of things, while Polite worked his tail off but still struggled to get off of blocks. Miller hardly played run downs at Alabama, so he’s just a little underdeveloped in this area.

 

FINAL GRADES

One note on the final grades here: Polite had a Round 1 grade on tape, but the work ethic and Combine categories scored low enough to drop him into Round 2. Depending on what I discovered as a team in his interview process, I might not draft him at all, or I might take him higher if I felt like he could work in my locker room culture. He is more talented than Ferrell or Sweat in my opinion, I just don’t trust him at the next level.

1. Bosa - Round 1

2. Burns - Round 1

3. Allen - Round 1

4. Ferrell - Round 2

5. Sweat - Round 2

6. Polite - Round 2

7. Winovich - Mid Day 2

8. Gary - Mid Day 2

9. Miller - Mid Day 2

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/ledyard--2019-nfl-draft-edge-defender-rankings

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19 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

NFL comparison: Davante Adams 

Adams was a super-productive wideout at Fresno State with Derek Carr, landed in the second round of the 2014 draft, and following some early-career flashes in Green Bay, has become one of the finest young targets in football. He can make the spectacular grab in the red zone, repeatedly turns defenders before and after the catch, and can hit some big-gainers thanks to impressive speed. All of the same is true for Samuel, who arguably possesses the best combination of route-running savvy and yards-after-the-catch skills of any wideout in this class. He boasts strong hands too. 

 

I really wanted us to draft Adams, so that sounds good to me.

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3 hours ago, RWJ said:

UK I think they fill in for a year while we select players in the draft to hopefully take their place.  We have to hit it right on these players in the draft so they can fill the holes of these 1 year signings.  Just my guess.

 

 

Still time to trade picks for Rosen yet. Wonder if some rumors filter out following the Cards love fest with Murray today.

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6 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Still time to trade picks for Rosen yet. Wonder if some rumors filter out following the Cards love fest with Murray today.

 

Even if they're set on Rosen...maybe it makes more sense to pretend they like Murray enough that they're considering it?  Not sure, but maybe they think while they're "undecided" a team can swoop in with a sweetheart trade offer.  Honestly I have no idea what the Cardinals are going to do.  I can't think of a more awkward situation for a team with the #1 overall pick.  Has something like this happened before?

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1 hour ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Even if they're set on Rosen...maybe it makes more sense to pretend they like Murray enough that they're considering it?  Not sure, but maybe they think while they're "undecided" a team can swoop in with a sweetheart trade offer.  Honestly I have no idea what the Cardinals are going to do.  I can't think of a more awkward situation for a team with the #1 overall pick.  Has something like this happened before?

 

It's definitely a interesting situation. I could actually see the Cards doubling up by taking both Murray and Hollywood Brown. 

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Here's a YAC guy to think about.  WR, Dillon Mitchell, from Oregon.  6'1 and 195.  Runs a 4.4 and looks that fast on tape.  Saw him repeatedly separate deep against both Stanford and Michigan State.  He's not the insane style of start stop acceleration that Marquise Brown has in terms of YAC.  But he's certainly slippery and frequently makes the first tackler miss.  I see route running potential on tape.  He's got a lot of positives, to the point where I'm not sure why he's rated as a 5th rounder.

 

The negatives would be, doesn't high point well at all, can catch away from his frame but really prefers body catching, is a little thin so there might be tape of him getting bodied off of routes by physical corners.  If he's rated as low as the 5th round, probably some more negatives I'm missing.

 

He had 38% of Oregon's total receiving yards.  Herbert had 3151 passing yards, 1184 of those were to Mitchell.

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1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

Duplicate, see SIP post below...

 

 

Actually I took off the part in my post that you already had in yours once I spotted it.  You listed Robinson's first 2, I purposely listed everything after those 2.  So yours or mine wasn't a duplicate.

 

 

Switching gears, every now and then I keep bouncing back to TJ Hockenson.  And yes this is a deep draft for TE but Hockenson is unique in that he's an elite blocker and receiver.  Fant is decent as a blocker and ditto Irv Smith.  but Hockenson is arguably special at everything.  And his play can be a tone setter. 

 

I was just listening to a Cooley podcast where he charted all their first and 10 plays.  The cliff notes version is Sprinkle was a major tell for defenses.  If it was just him in on the play among the TEs, they ran the ball 83% of the time.  If it was him with another TE it was 70%.  He went on too about the blocking issues with the duo which is heavily reliant on the TE setting the edge versus the DE. 

 

It's sort of like Jay's offense is heavily reliant on the idea of having well rounded TEs who can do it all but he doesn't have the horses to do it.  

 

There are multiple guys that I like at 15 but I am not hating Hockenson at that spot.  

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