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Three little Birds thread, It's gonna be aight. Good ju-ju thread

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Fans and players gonna feed off each other this Sunday sparking something very special and very VERY positive for the last stretch of the season!

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I think some unintentional good that came from Josh's comments are that he created a little intrigue, as well as lighting a fire under the players to not come out and blow it like against ATL. This team is boring, but that comment reached some people you better believe it. This is a BIG game, glad he threw some added pressure on them.

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1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

I think some unintentional good that came from Josh's comments are that he created a little intrigue, as well as lighting a fire under the players to not come out and blow it like against ATL. This team is boring, but that comment reached some people you better believe it. This is a BIG game, glad he threw some added pressure on them.

 

Good point.  My concern over the years is this team tends to be a little flat after coming off a big win and also in games that don't feel like must wins.  You got some of that cooking with this game.    Maybe all of the hoopla about the fans might bring an edge that sometimes seems to be lacking with this team in games like this.

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Football Outsiders beats up the Redskins here but at the same time they say they are going to win the NFC East.  To me that's optimism  at its height, they don't want to give the nod that the Redskins are a good team but still say they win the East anyway. 

 

http://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/story/_/id/25274915/nfl-futures-bets-make-right-now

Washington Redskins: 4-5 to win NFC East

Vegas odds: 55.6 percent

DVOA simulation odds: 74.9 percent

Washington is not a very good team this year. They currently rank 19th in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and that's before we take into account the cascade of injuries, especially on the offensive line, that Washington has suffered in recent weeks.

But Washington also has a two-game lead on both Dallas and Philadelphia. In DVOA, they are currently better than Dallas, which ranks 23rd, and they have a head-to-head victory over the Cowboys. Philadelphia is slightly ahead of Washington in DVOA and gets to play the Redskins twice, but the Eagles have their own injuries to deal with, like the torn ACL for No. 1 cornerback Ronald Darby. And more importantly, Philadelphia's schedule is much tougher than the remaining schedule for Washington (or Dallas). The Eagles have to travel to face both the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams on the road.

We did another simulation where we penalized Washington 10 percentage points of DVOA for all their offensive line injuries, making them the worst team in the NFC East below even the New York Giants. In that simulation, Washington still won the division 64.4 percent of the time. Even in simulations where the Eagles sweep Washington in both their head-to-head matchups, Washington still wins the division over 40 percent of the time.

Note that because Washington isn't very good and has suffered so many injuries, the opportunity here is entirely with the odds of winning the division. This is more about the remaining schedules in the NFC East than it is about how good Washington is. In fact, FO's odds of Washington making it to the Super Bowl are lower than the current odds in Vegas.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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 In that simulation, Washington still won the division 64.4 percent of the time.

 

LOL...I used to watch my friends simulate....while I actuated. 

 

Image result for now we throw our heads back and laugh gif

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Man o man o man..wanna get ur heart pumping!?!?!.I was just over at redskins.com watching sounds of the game..and wow that win over the cowboys just wow..it was awesome to watch..one game at a time folks..I'm so excited right now for my beloved Skins!!..there playing with a very positive vibe right now and I really admire it...Go Redskins!!!

Oh and I absolutely loved seeing London Fletcher on the side lines rallying the troops

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12 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Football Outsiders beats up the Redskins here but at the same time they say they are going to win the NFC East.  To me that's optimism  at its height, they don't want to give the nod that the Redskins are a good team but still say they win the East anyway. 

 

http://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/story/_/id/25274915/nfl-futures-bets-make-right-now

Washington Redskins: 4-5 to win NFC East

Vegas odds: 55.6 percent

DVOA simulation odds: 74.9 percent

Washington is not a very good team this year. They currently rank 19th in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and that's before we take into account the cascade of injuries, especially on the offensive line, that Washington has suffered in recent weeks.

But Washington also has a two-game lead on both Dallas and Philadelphia. In DVOA, they are currently better than Dallas, which ranks 23rd, and they have a head-to-head victory over the Cowboys. Philadelphia is slightly ahead of Washington in DVOA and gets to play the Redskins twice, but the Eagles have their own injuries to deal with, like the torn ACL for No. 1 cornerback Ronald Darby. And more importantly, Philadelphia's schedule is much tougher than the remaining schedule for Washington (or Dallas). The Eagles have to travel to face both the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams on the road.

We did another simulation where we penalized Washington 10 percentage points of DVOA for all their offensive line injuries, making them the worst team in the NFC East below even the New York Giants. In that simulation, Washington still won the division 64.4 percent of the time. Even in simulations where the Eagles sweep Washington in both their head-to-head matchups, Washington still wins the division over 40 percent of the time.

Note that because Washington isn't very good and has suffered so many injuries, the opportunity here is entirely with the odds of winning the division. This is more about the remaining schedules in the NFC East than it is about how good Washington is. In fact, FO's odds of Washington making it to the Super Bowl are lower than the current odds in Vegas.

 

Obviously not directed at you - commenting on the content of the article.

 

So let me get this straight - in virtually every simulation the Redskins are favored to win the division, but we are just not a good team. I mean they told us twice we are not good and then ran simulations with negatively penalizing the team and they are still favored! But just to make sure we know how bad we are they let us know their odds of us winning the Super Bowl are lower than Vegas - something they seem proud of! Hmmm.... Could there be any bias there? 

 

I so hope they beat Houston. Maybe it will stop at least some of this BS double talk. More importantly it will put a stranglehold on the division. Unfortunately, it has not been in Jay's teams DNA to win two big games in a row or many games that have a lot on the line. But maybe this is the year. They have slayed a few demons already. Let's keep it going. 

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1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

Obviously not directed at you - commenting on the content of the article.

 

So let me get this straight - in virtually every simulation the Redskins are favored to win the division, but we are just not a good team. I mean they told us twice we are not good and then ran simulations with negatively penalizing the team and they are still favored! But just to make sure we know how bad we are they let us know their odds of us winning the Super Bowl are lower than Vegas - something they seem proud of! Hmmm.... Could there be any bias there? 

 

I so hope they beat Houston. Maybe it will stop at least some of this BS double talk. More importantly it will put a stranglehold on the division. Unfortunately, it has not been in Jay's teams DNA to win two big games in a row or many games that have a lot on the line. But maybe this is the year. They have slayed a few demons already. Let's keep it going. 

 

Not sure how Football Outsiders does their metrics but however they do it they are only impressed with the special teams which is ranked really high -- not so much the offense/defense.  I think part of the reason why the stat obsessed sites aren't blown away by the Redskins is point differential which is about even which is very rare for a team with a record like ours so it feels to them fools gold.  Heck PFF has the Eagles higher on their power rankings than the Redskins.

 

Not saying their empirical number crunching isn't flawed but I think on both of their metrics (PFF, Football Outsiders) what screws it up where those two lopsided loses to Atlanta and NO.  If those games were close I'd gather metric wise the Redskins would show up much better.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not sure how Football Outsiders does their metrics but however they do it they are only impressed with the special teams which is ranked really high -- not so much the offense/defense.  I think part of the reason why the stat obsessed sites aren't blown away by the Redskins is point differential which is about even which is very rare for a team with a record like ours so it feels to them fools gold.  Heck PFF has the Eagles higher on their power rankings than the Redskins.

 

Not saying their empirical number crunching isn't flawed but I think on both of their metrics (PFF, Football Outsiders) what screws it up where those two lopsided loses to Atlanta and NO.  If those games were close I'd gather metric wise the Redskins would show up much better.

 

Yea, they calculated % chances of making the playoffs - not winning the division but just getting to the playoffs on NFL.com and they had the Eagles ahead of us. They did not even give us a 50% chance! The is zero chance you can look at pure raw data and calculate a greater chance of a team 2 games behind as having a better chance to make the playoffs. 

 

When you factor in the much tougher schedule there is just no way. Philly never gets in a 8-8 without winning the division. So they are saying there is a better chance of us going 2-5 and them  going 4-3 - assuming 2 of those wins are against us then us even going 3-4. That is not rational or data driven. They have added their own bias. 

 

Clearly none of this changes anything on the field. I just find it amazing the mental gymnastics some will go through to support their own biased narrative. 

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3 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Yea, they calculated % chances of making the playoffs - not winning the division but just getting to the playoffs on NFL.com and they had the Eagles ahead of us. They did not even give us a 50% chance! The is zero chance you can look at pure raw data and calculate a greater chance of a team 2 games behind as having a better chance to make the playoffs. 

 

When you factor in the much tougher schedule there is just no way. Philly never gets in a 8-8 without winning the division. So they are saying there is a better chance of us going 2-5 and them  going 4-3 - assuming 2 of those wins are against us then us even going 3-4. That is not rational or data driven. They have added their own bias. 

 

Clearly none of this changes anything on the field. I just find it amazing the mental gymnastics some will go through to support their own biased narrative. 

 

I think Dallas because of the schedule is the bigger threat.  The key is to keep a 2 game lead over them before the Thanksgiving game. 

 

My take is if the Redskins lose and the Cowboys win this Sunday -- Cowboys beat the Redskins on Thursday and ultimately take the division.  If the Redskins on the other hand win this Sunday regardless of what the Cowboys do, I think its over, they take the division.    To me the one outcome that can turn the tide the wrong way is a Redskins loss and Cowboys win this Sunday -- then we got a fired up Cowboys playing to tie for the division lead in their home stadium with the Redskins going on the road on short rest. 

 

On the other hand if the Redskins win and Cowboys lose could it get anymore deflating than that for the cowboys?

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