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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

88Comrade2000

By 88Comrade2000
in The Tailgate

TK
Message added by TK,

 

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Forehead

Posted
Posted

I like Yang just for that zinger.

 

This group seems less interesting than yesterday.  Even the fringe candidates yesterday like Delaney, Ryan, or Williamson, had something to say.   The first three or four people tonight were really, really boring.

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Rufus T Firefly

Rufus T Firefly

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56 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Yeah, but WI was leaning more right during that time period (the election of Walker as governor).

 

Most studies find no affect on the VP and their home state.

 

e.g. 

 

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/election-2016-vice-president-selection-matters-less-than-you-think-213805

 

"Our conclusion: While presidential candidates typically enjoy a home-state advantage (approximately 3 points to 7 points), vice presidential candidates generally do not. In each of the three analyses described above, a presidential ticket performs no better in the vice presidential candidate’s home state than we would expect otherwise. Statistically speaking, the effect is zero."

I don't find those historical studies instructive. Our politics are radically different now than they were even 30 years ago, so examining what happened 50, 100, 150 years ago and applying it to today is not something I pay a whole lot of attention to.

 

And one of the conclusions in that article 'VP picks who are popular in their home state can help, but only in small states, not large states' seems nonsensical and they make no explanation for why that would be the case.

 

Your point n Wisconsin is highly debatable, to say the least. In 2008, Dems statewide won the congressional popular vote in Wisconsin by 3.9%. In 2012, that advantage only shrunk to +1.5 points. So, while statewide Dems lost 2.4%, in the same elections Obama lost 7 points. 

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PeterMP

PeterMP

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8 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

Yang is on point with UBI but he needs to bring something else to the table. If that is your only substantial policy idea, it becomes a gimmick 

 

If you believe massive unempolyment due to automation is coming, giving everybody $12K a year seems pretty pointless.

 

Outlawing further automation makes much more sense.

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