I admit, I was wrong about Joe Barry

[skinny21]

First, not trying to be an ass, but it's Barry, not Berry. <--- Thank you noted

More importantly you took 3 metrics and doubled them to 6 when they are the same number. Yds/gm and total yds are going to track each other, exactly. It's counting the same metric twice. Same with passing and rushing yds/gm and total. I conceded that yds was the one metric we got worse on. I was including all permutations, but OK, 3. <--- I wasn't talking to you I honestly did that for myself

Ultimately all the "down" metrics are all related to yards. As I have said many times (probably getting close to too many) I could mostly care less about yds. Pt's wins games, not yds. <--- there is nothing saying that won't go the reverse next year unless we make some serious strides here. Talent is getting better on Defense but the more games we win the harder it would be to keep the points scored against us low without an elite Defense. The issue with the yardage is that it shows we are not elite. This will be his best season proving me wrong to doubt the man or just proving me right. I hope I am wrong

I'm sure it wasn't intentional, but goskins is right that your focus (and more importantly, duplication) of the yardage metrics is misleading (even if it's just for yourself!).

So, here's what I've found in terms of the important metrics (let me know if I missed any):

Arrow up - fumbles, sacks, interceptions, 3rd down %, points per game, penalties, opponent passer rating

Arrow down - rushing and passing yards (and therefore total yards), opponents red zone TD %

Factor in TSO's post about how much help the defense actually got from the offense (TOP in particular), and my earlier post about the caliber of offenses we played, and I've come away with the notion that the defense performed much better than I previously thought.

Of course, there's a lot of room for improvement, and I'm not quite ready to lay all or even most of the success at Barry's feet. With added talent, more experience and an even better (and more consistent) offense though, I think we should continue to see steady improvement.

[goskins10]

Warning... massive post incoming. 

 

 

 

 

For the record, I didn't quote your entire post and I bolded some of the points I wanted to discuss. This one's going to be a doozy (KB will love it). 

 

Edit...

 

    

There was maybe 2 or 3 times in the entire season where the offense had long, time-consuming drives and the defense failed to capitalize. Basically, if the offense did that the defense took advantage, just like they're supposed to. Outside of a couple games (and arguably only the Panthers game), defensive failures mostly showed up when they were getting little to no help from the other phases.     

 

First, thanks for taking the time to break that down. We all lived though those games but as time goes by you maybe remember it a little differently, and make generalizations based on a season that clearly are not supported when you look at a more granular level. In my head I was basically agreeing that the OFF TOP helped the D at least some. This breakdown shows that is a bit over blown.

 

As skinny said I don't think anyone is ready to crown Barry king, but there are clearly signs he has potential and the team is headed in the right direction. Add to the players really seem to want to paly for him and the rest of the D staff I am cautiously optimistic we will see a pretty big improvement is we can keep from getting destroyed by the injury bug.

 

Not to change the subject, but has been a lot of talk of our schedule being a lot tougher, which I also agreed with at first without looking at the actual data. Seemed logical. Last year we played a last place schedule and this year we play a 1st place schedule. Has to be a lot tougher, right? Well not so fast!

 

Here is a actual win/loss breakdown:

2015 Preseason - 122-133-1 or 0.478

2015 Actual - 119-137 or 0.465.

2016 Preseason - 126-130 or 0.492.

 

Looking at actual SOS for 2015 and preseason for 2016 (the only data we have since the season has not been played), the difference is only +7 games or 0.027 in terms of wining %!! And the overall is under 0.500!!

 

Yes, last year dallast had a 4-12 season which is unlikely to happen again. However. Carolina also had a 15-1 season, also unlikely to happen again. Further, if you look at the pre-season w/l for 2015 that includes dallast 12-4 2014, which counts twice! Our SOS was almost untouched in the final SOS meaning that as bad as dallast was, there were several other teams that were much improved over 2014 to compensate.

 

The message is: Perception is reality until reality is reality or put another way: "In God we trust, all others bring data!" 

[skinny21]

Found a couple interesting articles on Phillips' scheme. Both have a lot of good nuggets and make things a bit clearer in terms of what we're building/shooting for. Really interesting to see how our personnel additions/changes fit with this philosophy. Have fun.

http://www.battleredblog.com/2011/1/4/1913068/thats-so-crazy-it-just-might-work-examining-wade-phillips-3-4-scheme

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/firstandgoal151015/the-magic-wade-phillips-continues-denver-broncos-nfl

[bird_1972]

Found a couple interesting articles on Phillips' scheme. Both have a lot of good nuggets and make things a bit clearer in terms of what we're building/shooting for. Really interesting to see how our personnel additions/changes fit with this philosophy. Have fun.

http://www.battleredblog.com/2011/1/4/1913068/thats-so-crazy-it-just-might-work-examining-wade-phillips-3-4-scheme

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/firstandgoal151015/the-magic-wade-phillips-continues-denver-broncos-nfl

 

Skinny,

 

Thanks for posting. I've read in another thread that Barry is part of the Wade "tree" of coaches. Would be interesting to see if he tries to employ some of the same schemes provided the young talent develops the way we expect and we stay healthy.

 

Just curious - did Wade ever have a "tweener" like Su'a Cravens before? Would be interested to see how he utilized him.

[skinny21]

Skinny,

Thanks for posting. I've read in another thread that Barry is part of the Wade "tree" of coaches. Would be interesting to see if he tries to employ some of the same schemes provided the young talent develops the way we expect and we stay healthy.

Just curious - did Wade ever have a "tweener" like Su'a Cravens before? Would be interested to see how he utilized him.

I was also trying to see if I could find anything about Marinelli influencing Barry, but haven't found anything worthwhile. One tidbit I did find was that Marinelli (Monte Kiffin tree) runs a 43 D and likes to use a simple playbook - which makes the defense easier to learn (helpful when you're pulling guys off the street) - believing you rep the heck out of it so everything's automatic come game day.

Barry's got a lot of toys to play with. I don't think it will be easy or smooth sailing though... the secondary is certainly improved and the OLBs should be quite good, but I worry about the line/backers.

No idea about the 'tweeter thing.

[Koolblue13]

I liked how Wade's defense is compared to Jim Johnson's defense. I think we all know how brutal they were.

[skinny21]

So... this is from bleacher report (obviously), but man, just a ton of information for anyone interested in different defensive schemes. Maybe we should have a separate thread...

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1074050-nfl-defensive-schemes-the-basics-of-the-4-3-3-4-and-ryan-defenses

[Morneblade]

Saw a report that Baker and Paea were rotating 1 and 5 tech. with the ones today. If we go that route for our base and bring Matt along, I think we're going to be ok at NT.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Saw a report that Baker and Paea were rotating 1 and 5 tech. with the ones today. If we go that route for our base and bring Matt along, I think we're going to be ok at NT.

 

Kedric Golston also apparently weighs 330 lbs now.  He's seriously beefed up.

[Morneblade]

Kedric Golston also apparently weighs 330 lbs now.  He's seriously beefed up.

I think he was around 325 last year, so it's not a lot. Could be wrong about that though. Still, I'd rather have Baker and Paea at NT in theory.

[Master Blaster]

Saw RJF at some NT too.  Looks like he has also beefed up. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

From another thread, posted by GoSkins10. Replying here as to not derail the other thread. (I'm quoting the entire thing only because we're flipping threads, otherwise I'd edit some of it out.  It's also a very good, well thought out post...)

 

Whenever anyone says "forget the statistics" then I know they just don't like someone. Football is a game of statistics. It's how everything is measured. With all due respect, the eye test is just this side of worthless. It's used when people just don't like what the data tells them. The data is actual. It's real. 

 
Ok they had a bad plan for a few series, pretty early in the season, with not the best talent for the most part, and an Offense that was still finding it's way. That's a sign he can't coach? Could it have been dictated by the personnel he had? At this point maybe he did not feel comfortable with what the guys could do. How about, Atlanta just made some good plays. How about with the total **** storm he was left with, and having to replace the starting Ss and ILBs 4 games into the season, and the starting expected #1 CB injured? They played pretty well against a team that was undefeated at the time. Ok, they had a lapse. Have you never made a single bad decision in your life?
 
I never said all the questions were answered. I said one was answered, and that is he can coach. Now can he game plan? That's really hard to tell since he didn't have many players to work with. I believe much of the vanilla Ds and as you say "soft" coverage's were due to personnel. For you to be aggressive say with blitzes and press coverage's, you have to have solid, experienced play elsewhere. And did I mention there was a **** storm of injuries!
 
Look, no one is putting the guy in Canton, or even saying he is a better than average DC yet. But he did demonstrate some very good qualities and some excellent improvement under very dire circumstances. considering how prepared the guys were him and his staff can coach guys up. They did a great job considering the circumstances.
 
Ok the Atl game pissed you off. But there were 15 other games! And as the season went on even with the injuries the D continually got better. The entire team grew as the season went on. That's the key. I just think the expectations are way over the top sometimes.
 
I know I said only one response but as Ron White said "I had the right to remain silent, I just did not have the ability!" I promise I will let this go here.
 
VOR, If you would like to discuss further, let's move to the Joe Barry thread. I will respond there moving forward.

Ok, a few points of clarification:

 

1. I was actually using the "throw out statistics" line to eliminate the "29th in total yards!" argument. And I probably used the term "eye test" inacurately, actually it's not so much an eye-test, it's how the defense performed under certain circumstances.  And if you wanted to find advanced metrics to back that up, I'm pretty sure you could.

 

2. There is absolutely no question that Barry is a better DC than Hasslet.  Was he the best guy for the job? I dunno.  But he's clearly not the bumbling idiot that a lot of people painted him out to be when he was hired.

 

3. I think it's fair to say that we know that Joe Barry, and the defensive staff, can get the most out of the guys that they've got.  They were pretty conservative, for the most part, in scheme and approach, but that could have been forced a bit by the players that they were forced to use because of injuries.  

 

4.  Do we know if Barry can coordinate a top-10 defense? We do not.  We didn't have the personnel to do it last year, we might this year.  But we haven't seen him do that yet.  What we've seen is that he was able to hold a group of misfits together, and produce at least an average NFL defense.  

 

5. There were 15 other games, and they got better, in general, as the season wore-on.  But they did lose 8 games last year, and the defense was a pretty big reason why.  The Miami game, they had the lead, and couldn't hold it. They managed to get behind by a ridiculous number of points to Tampa, before the biggest comeback in 'Skins history saved them.  They also gave up 32 points to the Giants, 34 to the jets, the already mentioned 31 to the Bucs, and even on the 4 game winning streak at the end of the year, they never held an opponent under 21 points.    And I'm giving them a pass on the 44 to the Panthers and the 27 to the Pats. And that's not real good.  

 

6. I get it, they were ravaged by injury.  And maybe they did about the best they could do based on the talent level.  But let's not pretend that the defense had an outstanding season, coaches or players.  There are still plenty of questions.  

 

And the line that I think gets lost is that I started with the statement, "I really hope that Joe Barry can coach."  And I really do.  He's shown  some signs of being a good DC.  But I think the jury is still out.  He's been a DC for 3 seasons. He's got a lot of room to grow.  

 

I am not saying Barry shouldn't have been fired, I'm just hoping that he can build on what he did last year.  

[goskins10]

 

 

Ok, a few points of clarification:

 

1. I was actually using the "throw out statistics" line to eliminate the "29th in total yards!" argument. And I probably used the term "eye test" inaccurately, actually it's not so much an eye-test, it's how the defense performed under certain circumstances.  And if you wanted to find advanced metrics to back that up, I'm pretty sure you could.

 

Edit...

 

 

 

 

Fair enough. Thanks for the thoughtful response. I don't think we are really that far apart. Just a few responses.

 

1. I brought up the 29th in yards because many people (not saying you, as a matter of fact I don't believe you mentioned it at all), point to that as the main measure as proof Barry is horrible while there are many other IMO more important metrics that show definite signs of improvement. Are they a finished product? Not even close. Still probably another offseason after this one at least. As far how the team performed under certain circumstances, one of the most critical is 3rd down efficiency. We improved 12 spots from 2014. We were letting people get up and down the field, but keeping them out of the EZ much more often than the previous few years. Another big one I mentioned were TOs, both FFs and Ints.

 

2. Being better than Haslett is not setting the bar too high... :-) I do really believe that at least some of the conservative play was due to lack of personnel. But there is no way to know that for sure unless you were on the sideline or this year it changes with some better talent and another year in the system. So it's a fair concern.

 

3. & 4. This is my main point really. I agree with your statements. I like the trend but I also agree we can't say for sure he can produce a consistently performed top level D that people fear. It will take a little time. I just want to see another big step forward this year.

 

5. & 6. Miami was a tough loss I admit. But there is no way that can be pinned on the D. We only scored 10 pts. The D kept Miami to 17. Yea, they gave up a lead, but the Off has to score more than 10 pts. The Tampa game, they did make Winston look like a pro-bowl QB in the first 20 mins, but the last 7 pts before the comeback started was off a fumble return for TD. Then the D pretty much held Tampa, including a huge goal line stand to give us a chance to win. Eli has had our number for a while. Not defending giving up that many pts. It's bad but it is a divisional game. Carolina was a disaster. We were staying with them and then the D just came apart. I do hold them accountable for that. The NE game, we got out coached at every level, - D, Off, STs. I hope they watch a lot of film from that game and remember the embarrassment. But to me the absolute worst game for the D was the Jets game. How do you let Ryan Fitz - ****ing - Patrick scramble for a TD! And the play Marshall made on the sideline made us look like a HS team! I was pissed for weeks after that game. So yea, I get we were anything but perfect. There is a lot of room to improve. But it takes time. Overall, I saw very good improvement.

 

I will admit to being a glass half full guy (although as an engineer I tend more to see it a glass that's 2 times bigger than it needs to be :-). As I said to start, in the end I don't think we are that far apart. I think they did some really nice things last year given the circumstances. I too am looking for but also expect them to continue to build a sustainable D. One that we can be confident will at least give us a chance to win most games. Admittedly we are probably still a ways away from that. I look forward to the ride though!

[SkinsGuy]

goskins10 writes:

 

5. & 6. Miami was a tough loss I admit. But there is no way that can be pinned on the D. We only scored 10 pts. The D kept Miami to 17. Yea, they gave up a lead, but the Off has to score more than 10 pts.

 

 

Actually, didn't the defense only give up 10? Wasn't one of those Dolphin TDs a special teams TD (a punt return, I think?).

[goskins10]

goskins10 writes:

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, didn't the defense only give up 10? Wasn't one of those Dolphin TDs a special teams TD (a punt return, I think?).

 

 

You are correct. Makes my point even more... 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Ok, forget the Miami game.

I still think my overall position is valid: showed some promise, wasn't a bumbling idiot, was out-coached at times, but managed to put an average defense together with below average parts.

Some good, some less-good. I think that was his third overall year as a DC. Hope he builds on past performance, and with a little luck health-wise, should have a lot more pieces to have a top 15, if not top 10 defense....

[goskins10]

Ok, forget the Miami game.

I still think my overall position is valid: showed some promise, wasn't a bumbling idiot, was out-coached at times, but managed to put an average defense together with below average parts.

Some good, some less-good. I think that was his third overall year as a DC. Hope he builds on past performance, and with a little luck health-wise, should have a lot more pieces to have a top 15, if not top 10 defense....

 

 

Hmm. I think I said we were very close. Sorry if it sounded like I was saying your position was not valid. You have a point, but IMO to a certain extent. I see more positive than maybe you do. Can't wait for the season. I really think we are going to be better than people think.

[Stefanskins]

Who knows if Barry's the real deal?...I'd say I'm 70% convinced he might be the right guy...liked what he did with what he had....with injuries and what not....However, I don't know if it was Barry scheming (actually using our players talents to shape our strategy) or  are we witnessing what the effect of just having deeper talent on a team and how much it means to the success of a scheme or coach(we had some youngins' stepin' up last year and I'm not use to that).... maybe save your apologies til next year...Barry better ball it up with this D...

[SWFLSkins]

•  

 

I admit, I was wrong about...

By Stefanskins

 

I love opening up ES and see this thread, just missed VOR earlier,,,,but hey caught my bud Stefan here. hahaa

[Stefanskins]

lol, thats why I love ya SWFL..that and your dedication to your craft and the Skins..

lol, thats why I love ya SWFL..that and your dedication to your craft and the Skins..

yeah what he said...

 

 

 

 

/hold up....I can't like my own quotes?

[Stefanskins]

I have no idea what I'm doing at any time or place....

 

 

[MartinC]

Saw a report that Baker and Paea were rotating 1 and 5 tech. with the ones today. If we go that route for our base and bring Matt along, I think we're going to be ok at NT.

I really don't want to see Baker at 0/1 tech. He's the best inside rusher we have and needs to play exclusively at the 4/5/6 tech spot in base IMO. I know we are in sub packages much more than base and play a 4 man line and then Baker can play some 3 tech with Kerrigan and Smith playing 7/8 tech and Galette rushing from a stand up 9 tech.

In general I think we stood up well last year against the pass. When you consider we had street free agents and converted WR playing a lot of snaps in our defensive backfield the coaching staff did a great job holding it all together. I think we will be even better this year against the pass. Better rush with Galette healthy and better coverage with Norman and the flexibility Cravens gives us.

It's stopping the run I worry about. If I was game planning against us I would run right at us, force us to play base and commit that 8th man in the box and make a living throwing off play action.

[Morneblade]

I really don't want to see Baker at 0/1 tech. He's the best inside rusher we have and needs to play exclusively at the 4/5/6 tech spot in base IMO. I know we are in sub packages much more than base and play a 4 man line and then Baker can play some 3 tech with Kerrigan and Smith playing 7/8 tech and Galette rushing from a stand up 9 tech.

In general I think we stood up well last year against the pass. When you consider we had street free agents and converted WR playing a lot of snaps in our defensive backfield the coaching staff did a great job holding it all together. I think we will be even better this year against the pass. Better rush with Galette healthy and better coverage with Norman and the flexibility Cravens gives us.

It's stopping the run I worry about. If I was game planning against us I would run right at us, force us to play base and commit that 8th man in the box and make a living throwing off play action.

 

Your train of thought doesn't add up here. You don't want Baker at NT because he's our best interior pass rusher (although a healthy Paea might be as good) but you're not worried about the pass rush because of several factors and are more concerned about the run for good reason. And Baker is probably our best NT.....against the run. But you don't want him there, because of pass rush. You're going to have to explain that to me, because I don't follow.

[MartinC]

Your train of thought doesn't add up here. You don't want Baker at NT because he's our best interior pass rusher (although a healthy Paea might be as good) but you're not worried about the pass rush because of several factors and are more concerned about the run for good reason. And Baker is probably our best NT.....against the run. But you don't want him there, because of pass rush. You're going to have to explain that to me, because I don't follow.

I'm concerned about interior pass rush in base. D'Line is a weakness for me and Baker is our best 5 tech (Paea has to prove last season was due to him playing hurt before I start to really count on him). I don't think Baker is as good at 1 tech and if you move him there I don't think you make a big improvement against the run but you certainly make the rush worse.

Stopping the run is likely a problem whether you play Baker at 1 or 5. I'd play him where he is at his best and that's 5 or 3 in the sub packages.

[Koolblue13]

I'm concerned about interior pass rush in base. D'Line is a weakness for me and Baker is our best 5 tech (Paea has to prove last season was due to him playing hurt before I start to really count on him). I don't think Baker is as good at 1 tech and if you move him there I don't think you make a big improvement against the run but you certainly make the rush worse.

Stopping the run is likely a problem whether you play Baker at 1 or 5. I'd play him where he is at his best and that's 5 or 3 in the sub packages.

our poor play against the run had more to do with our ILBs and SS. Compton should be much improved in his first offseason as the starter and SS has certainly been addressed.

I think brwhammer did a thread about the SS vs the run and why it's so important for Joe Barry's defense.