Let's talk about investing! Stock market, ETF, etc.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

32 minutes ago, tshile said:

Yeah I’m watching when to dump this XOM and move into something currently getting hammered….

The thing is - trying to time bottom/peak winds up being hard/impossible/foolish

 

Assuming you’re correct - I’d rather make moves over the next 3 months that I’m happy with, while the market is getting hammered, accepting it’s not necessarily to bottom, than try to time that bottom for everything. 
 

If the worst thing about your strategy is you sell just before the peak and buy just before the bottom, you’re doing pretty good…

I agree that finding the bottom is impossible. I’m saying though, right now, there are clear signals that we have a little more downside to go.  I think the Nasdaq has support around 8K…. So there is plenty of room for a significant drop.

 

Timing the market is gambling. But, isn’t gambling fun!? And don’t kid yourself, if you are picking individual stocks you definitely are gambling.

Edited June 15, 2022 by CousinsCowgirl84

[tshile]

10 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Timing the market is gambling. But, isn’t gambling fun!? And don’t kid yourself, if you are picking individual stocks you definitely are gambling.

Yeah. That’s why I do it. Gambling is def fun. 
 

as long as you’re responsible and don’t, say, I don’t know, dump your life savings into doge 

[RansomthePasserby]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

Assuming you’re correct - I’d rather make moves over the next 3 months that I’m happy with, while the market is getting hammered, accepting it’s not necessarily to bottom, than try to time that bottom for everything. 
 

If the worst thing about your strategy is you sell just before the peak and buy just before the bottom, you’re doing pretty good…

Exactly, if you start buying in now (or soon) your average cost is going to be somewhere between the current price and the lowest price. I like to start out in small volume chunks to see how it goes, then increase volume as the stock price goes in the direction I want it to (or get out if it doesn’t).

 

And yes, individual stocks are just a hobby funded with extra spending money. Don’t put your real life savings into it!

[EmirOfShmo]

I wasn't sure where to post this...

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Big deal for him, not sure Apple has liability unless they knew about it and covered it up. Maybe a shareholder lawsuit.

[Corcaigh]

Nice quote from William Bernstein who has written a number of highly regarded books on investing and financial independence:

 

"People do not seek employment in investment banks, brokerage houses, and mutual fund companies with the same motivations as those who choose to work in fire departments or elementary schools. Whether investors know it or not, they are engaged in an ongoing zero-sum, life-and-death struggle with piranhas, and if rigorous precautions are not taken, the financial services industry will strip investors of their wealth faster than they can say 'Bernie Madoff'". 
 

[abdcskins]

Market has been good the past couple of months 👍🏻 After what felt like three years of constant losses.

 

I am still riding my water funds 🏄‍♂️ Emerging markets are starting a small comeback, even though China is still in shambles. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I just turned 65 and have finalized my medical insurance costs and SS benefits.  Along with the market gains I will realize about $150 more a month than I had planned for.  Let's party.  

[Ball Security]

19 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

Market has been good the past couple of months 👍🏻 After what felt like three years of constant losses.

 

I am still riding my water funds 🏄‍♂️ Emerging markets are starting a small comeback, even though China is still in shambles. 

Basically from November 2023 forward, the markets have really taken off. 2022 was a down year, but 2021 had significant gains. The S&P was up close to 25%.

[abdcskins]

22 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Basically from November 2023 forward, the markets have really taken off. 2022 was a down year, but 2021 had significant gains. The S&P was up close to 25%.

 

That's true. I am invested in clean energy (ICLN) which has sucked horribly, as well as some electric vehicle funds (KARS and IDRV) that haven't done so great, so my portfolio has taken some hits. I tend to look at those as markers, which is misleading.

 

My actively managed funds have really been good, am looking at acquiring more of those. 

[Corcaigh]

This is the S&P performance for the past decade. In only three years out of ten investors have not done well, and in some years they’ve done exceptionally well. Better than historical averages. But for most of us we remember losses more than gains.

 

And because of volatility you see on the chart, trying to pick when to enter and when to exit the market is very inefficient.

Edited March 9 by Corcaigh

[bearrock]

For the average retail investors, keep a few things in mind and you'll tend to do well over the long run

 

- Time in market beats timing the market

- It's not a real gain until it's been realized

- Very few fund managers beat index funds on a consistent basis (top fund managers beat the market by about 3% in a given year, but there is constant churn among the top).  So unless you are lucky enough to have Buffet, Lynch, or Druckenmiller managing your money, you're probably better off with boring index funds with age/risk tolerance appropriate ratio of equity and bond

Edited March 9 by bearrock

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 hour ago, bearrock said:

For the average retail investors, keep a few things in mind and you'll tend to do well over the long run

 

- Time in market beats timing the market

- It's not a real gain until it's been realized

- Very few fund managers beat index funds on a consistent basis (top fund managers beat the market by about 3% in a given year, but there is constant churn among the top).  So unless you are lucky enough to have Buffet, Lynch, or Druckenmiller managing your money, you're probably better off with boring index funds with age/risk tolerance appropriate ratio of equity and bond

 

I have always subscribed to all of this. When investors try to time the market the masses lose their asses. Also a big investors in index funds. Buy and hold is the way to go, I am proud of myself for not worrying too much as I watched the market dip in 2022 when I was so close to retirement. I realize we had been on a crazy long run and we were due a correction so let's get it over with was my thought,  .  

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, bearrock said:

For the average retail investors, keep a few things in mind and you'll tend to do well over the long run

 

- Time in market beats timing the market

- It's not a real gain until it's been realized

- Very few fund managers beat index funds on a consistent basis (top fund managers beat the market by about 3% in a given year, but there is constant churn among the top).  So unless you are lucky enough to have Buffet, Lynch, or Druckenmiller managing your money, you're probably better off with boring index funds with age/risk tolerance appropriate ratio of equity and bond

 

And index funds generally cost less.  Even if you are in a managed asset and they are beating the market, are they doing by enough to off set the fees you are paying them?

[Ball Security]

2 hours ago, bearrock said:

For the average retail investors, keep a few things in mind and you'll tend to do well over the long run

 

- Time in market beats timing the market

- It's not a real gain until it's been realized

- Very few fund managers beat index funds on a consistent basis (top fund managers beat the market by about 3% in a given year, but there is constant churn among the top).  So unless you are lucky enough to have Buffet, Lynch, or Druckenmiller managing your money, you're probably better off with boring index funds with age/risk tolerance appropriate ratio of equity and bond

I have a cousin, good guy, who is a financial advisor. Started his career with Edward Jones and now has his own shop. In the age of online brokerages, I never understood what value those services provide. I understand there’s a segment of the population who aren’t comfortable doing financial things online. I’d have to think that there isn’t much future growth in that industry.

 

I’m 45 and am still in the accumulating phase, but I need to get better at tax planning for down the road. Most of my investments live in my 401k. I wish I contributed more to my Roth when I was younger. I’d rather have a better split between the two. Thing is when you are planning for that far down the road, the rules change down the road. I was listening to a podcast where they were discussing Roths and about how they are untaxed. But they also said that social security income wasn’t intended to be taxed either when the program started.

[Darrell Green Fan]

14 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I have a cousin, good guy, who is a financial advisor. Started his career with Edward Jones and now has his own shop. In the age of online brokerages, I never understood what value those services provide. I understand there’s a segment of the population who aren’t comfortable doing financial things online. I’d have to think that there isn’t much future growth in that industry.

 

I’m 45 and am still in the accumulating phase, but I need to get better at tax planning for down the road. Most of my investments live in my 401k. I wish I contributed more to my Roth when I was younger. I’d rather have a better split between the two. Thing is when you are planning for that far down the road, the rules change down the road. I was listening to a podcast where they were discussing Roths and about how they are untaxed. But they also said that social security income wasn’t intended to be taxed either when the program started.

 

You can roll over some of your traditional IRA or 401 into a Roth each year, but it is taxable.  Hard call as your tax rate now is high as you are working and we don't know what the tax rate will be in 20 years but I would think your income will be lower and in a different tax bracket perhaps..  But it may be a good move as the tax free earnings is hard to pass up.

 

 

Edited March 9 by Darrell Green Fan

[Corcaigh]

I’m sure most people don’t realize how much cost they are incurring by working with an advisor managing their investments. It’s pretty well proven that a balanced equity and fixed income portfolio appropriate for your risk tolerance and timeline when you will want to make withdrawals (such as the allocation in one of the target date funds) will outperform most active management, even without taking into account fees. But people don’t do the math to realize how much the advisor is costing them.

 

Take a scenario where someone invests 1000 per month over 40 years and gets a 10% return (S&P historic average). You will have about $5M after your 40 years of saving. If you get lucky and an advisor is getting similar performance (after their meddling in order to justify their fees), with their 1% fee creating a drag on the returns you will end up with a sum more than a million less. And many advisors charge above 1%, especially until you have a multi-million dollar portfolio.

 

 

Edited March 9 by Corcaigh

[Corcaigh]

7 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

You can roll over some of your traditional IRA or 401 into a Roth each year, but it is taxable.  Hard call as your tax rate now is high as you are working and we don't know what the tax rate will be in 20 years but I would think your income will be lower and in a different tax bracket perhaps..  But it may be a good move as the tax free earnings is hard to pass up.

 

 

Yeah, RMDs kick in at 75 for someone born after 1960 and so between the time when you retire and when you start taking  Social Security and later RMDs there potentially are a number of years when your income with be at its lowest and so you can withdraw from your tax deferred IRA and convert a chunk into Roth.

Dependent on how your work retirement plan is set up there is the possibility of backdoor and mega backdoor Roth conversions, but probably prohibitive tax-wise.

 

The Bogleheads forum is a great place where you can post your current assets (anonymously of course) and ask about strategies that make sense to you specifically to avoid unnecessary taxes in retirement.

 

[bearrock]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

I have a cousin, good guy, who is a financial advisor. Started his career with Edward Jones and now has his own shop. In the age of online brokerages, I never understood what value those services provide. I understand there’s a segment of the population who aren’t comfortable doing financial things online. I’d have to think that there isn’t much future growth in that industry.

 

I’m 45 and am still in the accumulating phase, but I need to get better at tax planning for down the road. Most of my investments live in my 401k. I wish I contributed more to my Roth when I was younger. I’d rather have a better split between the two. Thing is when you are planning for that far down the road, the rules change down the road. I was listening to a podcast where they were discussing Roths and about how they are untaxed. But they also said that social security income wasn’t intended to be taxed either when the program started.

 

Yeah, it's hard to plan too far ahead in terms of retirement tax planning considering that laws may change.  It's probably a good idea and enough for now to keep an eye on the common strategies and take a one time meeting with a financial or tax advisor in your 50's and another closer to the time if and when you decide to execute any strategy.  As it stands now, RMD regulations on non-Roth accounts will typically make conversion in between retirement and social security a serious consideration for many people.  

[EmirOfShmo]

Roaring Kitty is back...

 

[Corcaigh]

Hopefully there are some hedge funds getting burned again.

[Ball Security]

On 3/9/2024 at 7:06 PM, bearrock said:

 

Yeah, it's hard to plan too far ahead in terms of retirement tax planning considering that laws may change.  It's probably a good idea and enough for now to keep an eye on the common strategies and take a one time meeting with a financial or tax advisor in your 50's and another closer to the time if and when you decide to execute any strategy.  As it stands now, RMD regulations on non-Roth accounts will typically make conversion in between retirement and social security a serious consideration for many people.  

If I want to stop my W2 job at 55 and start converting 401k dollars to Roth, those conversions are taxed as income. Do those conversions also count to the Social Security calculations?

[bearrock]

36 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

If I want to stop my W2 job at 55 and start converting 401k dollars to Roth, those conversions are taxed as income. Do those conversions also count to the Social Security calculations?

 

No, you don't get FICA deferral in the initial 401k contribution so there's no FICA consequences at conversion to roth, just the income tax consequences.

[Ball Security]

8 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

No, you don't get FICA deferral in the initial 401k contribution so there's no FICA consequences at conversion to roth, just the income tax consequences.

Boo… I guess that makes sense though.

[TheGreatBuzz]

Funny this thread got bumped.

 

Am I reading this right? Essentially, if I make an early withdrawal from a Roth 401k, I have to pay a 10% penalty and it counts as income for the year. That's it.