Election 16: Donald Trumps wins Presidency. God Help us all!

[Larry]

Sounds like a legit difference. 

 

Although I have to say:  Having Hillary make a big deal about how much more pro-gun-control she is, than Bernie, might help her in the Dem primaries, but hurt her in the general.  On this particular issue, she's pointing out that she's to the left of Bernie. 

[twa]

if most dems supported gun control ya would have seen it passed

 

 

 

or is it like immigration reform?

[Going Commando]

i don't think so at all. Just pointing out more examples of the two Americas theme.

Those 45 percent that are voting for whomever the GOP candidate is regardless? They think the exact same way about the left as you guys think about those 45 percent and the candidates getting their support.

Want to fix America? First step is realizing that fact and not dismissing them as morons.

These posts were a pointless slew of intellectually dishonest false equivalencies.

The country has always been politically polarized between conservatives and progressives. What's different today is how politically impotent and fractured the conservative movement at the Federal level is. It's the kind of fracturing that has historically occurred before a major restructure of the parties.

The concept of "Two Americas" is well understood in electioneering now, but it refers to the two Americas that show up to vote in elections. One America votes in Midterms, the other votes in Presidentials.

[Going Commando]

I'm not sure past metrics mean much when it comes to Trump. I'd love to see him get destroyed in the general election, but so far evidence has been that he only gets stronger and more popular, more acceptable, as he goes on.  On the other hand no candidate has really put up a huge fight against him so far, though they have all tried to poke at him now and again.  So it's possible that he could be knocked off balance if he faced a consistent attack that he was forced to repeatedly answer. Usually when he does answer attacks though, he's able to use them to his advantage.  We'll have to see.

I agree he gets more acceptable to some as time passes with him leading polls of likely GoP primary and caucus voters. I disagree that this is anywhere close to a majority of voters.

I think people get swept up in the "horse race" minutiae of campaigns, routinely misinterpret poll data, and get inundated with all kinds of bad narratives that have no real grounding in the actual process of electioneering. The media, as a whole, does a very poor job covering elections and that's the primary reason for this. They are the creators of horse race narratives and cover elections (and politics in general) as entertainment.

If Donald Trump wins the nomination, I'm pretty confident it'll **** the GoP over all the way down the ticket and cause a disastrous election cycle for the party. The fact is, a generic Democrat nominee has a large electoral college lead out of the gate against a generic Republican nominee. But with a candidate like Trump? Not only is he going to get killed in the contest for swing votes, but he'd lose such a large faction of usually reliable mainstream conservative voters on top of that. They'll either stay home or show up and leave president blank. Third, Trump would lose the Hispanic vote by like an 80 point margin, and for any Republican to have any chance to win, they need to be getting over 40 points with Hispanics. His unfavorables among Hispanics are horrific--90% view him unfavorably. That's not 10% view him favorable and then the other 90% view him with a mixture of apathy and unfavorability. It's 90% unfavorable. They hate him. Trump is ****ing doomed. And I think his nomination would have a chance of dooming the Republicans' ability to seriously compete for the Hispanic vote for a generation--he could make the demo monolithically Democrat in the way Blacks are.

[skinsmarydu]

Me, I think it's because their sole motivation was, and is, is trying to prevent Obama from accomplishing anything whatsoever.

I would add "including, but not limited to, a second term", as the GOP was attempting to disparage him on Inauguration Day...without a single Dem proposal yet. That was my big WOW moment. He'd only been in office for a few hours...but was a really, really bad man already, according to McConnell.

[Kilmer17]

I love this place. You folks on he left continue fighting the good fight! I hope you all and the Dems nationally continue down the path of refusing to look in the mirror. It's why the GOP now dominates state and local politics. And why the Dems have next to no chance of winning back the house.

[skinsmarydu]

if most dems supported gun control ya would have seen it passed

 

 

 

or is it like immigration reform?

Most Republicans do, according to those polls y'all love so much...wonder why it hasn't passed?

(Pssst...starts with a "K"...)

[twa]

Most Republicans do, according to those polls y'all love so much...wonder why it hasn't passed?

(Pssst...starts with a "K"...)

 

polls lie, just like politicians ...ya gotta cut thru the BS

[skinsmarydu]

polls lie, just like politicians ...ya gotta cut thru the BS

tell that to Trump. Polls are his lifeline.

or all y'all lyin'?

[twa]

I predict the narrative will change when voting starts....remember Howard Dean?

 

remember Hillary 1.0?

[Kilmer17]

tell that to Trump. Polls are his lifeline.

or all y'all lyin'?

I think a large percent of his poll support is people clowning the pollsters.

At least I hope so

[twa]

I think a large percent of his poll support is people clowning the pollsters.

At least I hope so

 

a significant % are Dems and Dem leaners....welcome to the big tent eh?

 

I think he has brought more than a clown show to the race...we will see if he has legs.

[mistertim]

I love this place. You folks on he left continue fighting the good fight! I hope you all and the Dems nationally continue down the path of refusing to look in the mirror. It's why the GOP now dominates state and local politics. And why the Dems have next to no chance of winning back the house.

Larry did get pretty specific. He pointed out compromises on the D side and then asked for examples of compromises on the R side and hasn't gotten any actual response other than a bunch of "tsk tsk, stop believing the Dems have zero blame at all for any of the current situation" (which he never said and nobody here really believes as far as I can tell.)

[Mooka]

 stevemcqueen1, on 15 Jan 2016 - 10:39 PM, said:

 

Not only is he going to get killed in the contest for swing votes, but he'd lose such a large faction of usually reliable mainstream conservative voters on top of that. They'll either stay home or show up and leave president blank. Third, Trump would lose the Hispanic vote by like an 80 point margin, and for any Republican to have any chance to win, they need to be getting over 40 points with Hispanics. His unfavorables among Hispanics are horrific--90% view him unfavorably. That's not 10% view him favorable and then the other 90% view him with a mixture of apathy and unfavorability. It's 90% unfavorable. They hate him.

 

[...]

 

Trump is ****ing doomed. 

 

 

 

 

MmmHmm. 

 

And if I asked you a year ago on Donald Trump's chances of being president? The first page of this thread started in 2013 says 500/1 the same odds as Michelle Obama. Btw, don't doubt for a second that Donald Trump wouldn't stage a presidential run to simply bet on himself. 

 

 

About swing votes, everyone always assumes that the swing votes are not made by Americans; as in, they're not as dumb and biased as the rest of us. Ohio? Florida? Plenty of dumbassess in these states and Trump will appeal to many of them.  

 

And conservatives, not voting? What conservative have you ever met that would not vote on something and help Hillary Clinton win something? 

 

And about Hispanics, you must be reading Univision polls. That 40 points thing is only for battleground states not the entire Hispanic vote. (and also is a theory by a Rubio pollster) Trump will be able to get more Hispanic votes then the average Republican candidate.  

 

 

All of the above will be true if its Trump vs Hillary. 

 

 

Just wait. Wait to look at the polls when there are armies of chipwich's out there, employed by Donald Trump, attacking Hillary 24/7 pulling no punches. Wait what the Hispanic vote says when Gloria Estefan or Pitbull start showing up at Trump rallies and Trump is kicking soccer goals in his ads drinking Tampico. 

 

Have you seen the first Trump ad with the hordes of people crossing the border or seen the creepy little cheerleaders singing the Trump song? This is just getting started. 

[tshile]

I can't wait to see Trump kicking a soccer ball Escobar style

[chipwhich]

She just doesn't measure up   Another good sign for Herr Trump

 

http://www.marke****ch.com/story/hillary-clinton-is-inches-away-from-the-presidency-2016-01-15

 

By this measure, Hillary Clinton is inches away from the presidency

Every inch matters if you’re hoping to become president.

 

Fewer than a third of all U.S. presidents have been shorter than the average man, who today is a little over 5-foot-9, even though most of them took office well before the advent of television. What’s more, an analysis of presidential races from 1789 to 2008 from researchers at Texas Tech University found that the taller candidate was elected nearly 60% of the time.

 

“A preference for taller leaders is a near-universal trait we see in different cultures,” explained J. David Schmitz, who co-authored the 2011 study with political science professor Gregg Murray.

 

So how do many of our current candidates measure up?

 

Frankly, most come up short. 

 

[mistertim]

 

Just wait. Wait to look at the polls when there are armies of chipwich's out there, employed by Donald Trump, attacking Hillary 24/7 pulling no punches. Wait what the Hispanic vote says when Gloria Estefan or Pitbull start showing up at Trump rallies and Trump is kicking soccer goals in his ads drinking Tampico. 

 

[chipwhich]

There is always a GREAT solution.  Nominate Sanders and Christie or Cruz.  Discussion over.  I don't think the voting American public is that smart.  Name recognition trumps all, no pun intended.  LOL or maybe pun intended is apropos.

[chipwhich]

Of course they underestimated him, it was "her turn" and the DNC is in her back pocket.  Looks like her handlers will have her weave a different tale yet again, should be good for some chuckles.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/us/politics/hillary-clinton-regrets-not-attacking-bernie-sanders-earlier-her-allies-say.html

 

Clinton Campaign Underestimated Sanders Strengths, Allies Say

Advisers to Hillary Clinton, including former President Bill Clinton, believe that her campaign made serious miscalculations by forgoing early attacks on Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and failing to undercut his archliberal message before it grew into a political movement that has now put him within striking distance of beating Mrs. Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire.

 

According to Democrats close to the Clintons and involved with her campaign, Mrs. Clinton and the former president are also unnerved by the possibility that Mr. Sanders will foment a large wave of first-time voters and liberals that will derail her in Iowa, not unlike Barack Obama’s success in 2008, which consigned Mrs. Clinton to a third-place finish. They have asked her advisers about the strength of the campaign’s data modeling and turnout assumptions in Iowa, given that her 2008 campaign’s predictions were so inaccurate.

 

As the Democratic rivals prepare for what is likely to be a contentious televised debate on Sunday night, the Clintons are particularly concerned that her “rational message,” in the words of an aide, is not a fit with a restless Democratic primary electorate. Allies and advisers of the Clintons say Mr. Sanders is clearly connecting with voters through his emotional, inspiring rallying cry that the American economic and political systems are rigged for the wealthy and powerful. By contrast, Mrs. Clinton has been stressing her electability and questioning the costs of Mr. Sanders’s ideas.

 

Most Clinton advisers and allies would speak only on the condition of anonymity to candidly assess her vulnerabilities and the Clintons’ outlook on the race. This article is based on interviews with 11 people — campaign advisers, outside allies, friends and donors — who have spoken to the Clintons about the race.

 

“Hillary is a pragmatic progressive — she’s not an advocate,” said Gov. Peter Shumlin of Vermont, who last week campaigned in Iowa for Mrs. Clinton over his home-state senator Mr. Sanders. “She quietly pulls people together and gets things done. Even though that’s not in vogue right now, I think that’s what voters will want in the end.”

 

But Mrs. Clinton’s problems are broader than just her message: Opinion polls show that some Democrats and other voters continue to question her trustworthiness and whether she cares about their problems. Recent polls show that her once-formidable lead over Mr. Sanders in Iowa has all but vanished, while he is holding on to a slight lead over her in New Hampshire.

 

Mrs. Clinton and her team say they always anticipated the race would tighten, yet they were not prepared for Mr. Sanders to become so popular with young people and independents, especially women, whom Mrs. Clinton views as a key part of her base. Given her many political advantages, like rich donors and widespread support from Democratic Party elites, she is also surprised that Mr. Sanders’s fund-raising has rivaled hers and that her experience — along with her potential to make history as the first woman elected president — has not galvanized more voters.

 

“It was probably never going be a straight line — we hoped it would be but feared it wouldn’t be,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist on Mr. Clinton’s 1992 campaign and a longtime friend of the Clintons. “She’s performed solidly enough, but it’s been a hard race.”

 

more at link...

 

 

[visionary]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/01/16/trump-suggests-he-could-pick-scott-brown-as-his-running-mate/

Trump suggests he could pick Scott Brown as his running mate

 

Donald Trump said Saturday that Scott Brown would be a vice president straight out of “central casting.”

 

The Republican front-runner was flattering Brown as he sought his endorsement during a rally hosted by the former U.S. senator in a Toyota dealership here.

 

After Trump took the stage to “Eye of the Tiger,” Brown introduced him as “the next president of the United States.”

 

Trump returned the favor 10 minutes into his speech. “There’s no hope with these people that we have running for office, except for him of course,” he said, pointing at Brown. “Here’s a good man! We’re keeping our bad ones. We’re losing our good ones.”

 

A man in the audience yelled that Trump should choose Brown as his vice president. The crowd of several hundred cheered.

 

“You know what? He’s central casting,” Trump replied, nodding. “Look at that guy! He’s central casting! A great guy and a beautiful wife and a great family. So important!”

 

Brown said he plans to endorse one of the candidates after a state GOP cattle call next weekend.

 

But he plainly likes the idea of being vice president.

 

“I’ve heard that before,” Brown said, smiling, when asked about it after the event. “So I’m just going to continue to work hard and see what happens.”

Speaking with reporters after the event, Brown said he is weighing three factors as he decides whom to endorse: “Somebody who is not afraid to make a decision and doesn’t always follow the polls; sometimes who will be politically incorrect and will do what’s best for this country ... Someone also who is not afraid to admit when they’re wrong.”

 

Brown said he disagrees with Trump’s call for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. But then he said he’d go much farther.

 

“Of course not,” the former senator said when asked about the Muslim ban. “But I do support something maybe a little bit more interesting, and that is … there is nothing wrong with putting a halt on all immigration coming in.”

 

He said Republican and Democratic leaders should get together and “come up with a comprehensive immigration policy that they all can agree on.”

 

Until then, he explained, “I would support something where you just put a halt on everybody coming in.”

[visionary]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-cruz-idUSMTZSAPEC1G2HSPPJ

Growing feud: Trump, Cruz escalate attacks on each other

 

The growing feud between Republican front-runner Donald Trump and his central rival Ted Cruz intensified on Saturday with tit-for-tat attacks that put to rest any notion that their debate night fight was a solitary engagement.

 

The split between the two is evidence of the closeness of the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, particularly in Iowa. Polls there show a neck-and-neck battle with little more than two weeks to go until Iowa on Feb. 1 stages the first nominating contest on the road to the Nov. 8 election.

 

Trump, who needs a victory in Iowa to set a winning tone to his campaign, kept up his attempt to undermine Cruz's attempt to portray himself as an outsider to the political establishment.

 

Trump seized on a report in The New York Times that said Cruz had failed to disclose a second loan, from Citibank, that helped bankroll his 2012 Senate campaign. The Times earlier had reported that Cruz had not disclosed a loan from Goldman Sachs for the same campaign.

 

Cruz's campaign has said the failure to report the loan was a paperwork error.

 

"He didn't report his bank loans," Trump told delegates to the South Carolina Tea Party Convention.

 

Some booed Trump for criticizing Cruz since they had cheered Cruz when he spoke to the group earlier.

 

"Say whatever you want," Trump said in response to the boos. "He didn't report his bank loans... And then he acts like Robin Hood. Say whatever you want.."

 

Cruz did not mention Trump to the Tea Party event but talking to reporters in Fort Mill, S.C., earlier in the day he was unsparing.

 

He suggested the New York billionaire and former reality TV star lacks the temperament to be president, pointing to his frequent Twitter assaults on his adversaries. He said Trump had attacked him because Cruz was a threat to him in Iowa.

 

"I think in terms of a commander-in-chief, we ought to have someone who isn't springing out of bed to tweet in a frantic response to the latest polls," Cruz said. "I think the American people are looking for a commander-in-chief who is stable and steady and a calm hand to keep this country safe."

 

Trying to prove Trump is not the conservative he says he is, Cruz's campaign released a video entitled "Donald Trump's New York Values" that linked to a 1999 interview Trump did on NBC's "Meet the Press" in which Trump declared he favored a woman's right to abortion and supported gay marriage.

[Destino]

i think Americans are drawn to leaders that have just the right amount arrogance and are able to convince them that they have a vision for the county. They do not seem to favor political wonks that appear most comfortable in the weeds on every issue or stereotypical politicians eager to negotiate everything.

No one did arrogance as well as Bill Clinton. Bush beat Al Gore and John Kerry wearing a smirk on his face the whole time. Obama relied on inspiring speeches about change, but his ability to throw fire at his rivals while holding a wide toothy grin is top notch. In all these cases those that didn't support them viewed it as insufferable, but enough people liked it.

Trump and Cruz are succeeding by not saying "we have have to work with our allies and reach across the aisle" (looking at you Jeb) and by displaying a level of arrogance that supporters have found appealing. Just watch their exchanges with Jeb and that Cuban android the GOP hopes can convince enough people he's human (with a real heart and everything) and the distinctions between them are clear.

I think it's a mistake to assume their main draw is that republicans are all stupid fear junkies and that Cruz and Trump are simply the best at scaring them. Both parties feel that way about their rivals.

I also think it's a mistake to assume that Hillary will easily handle either of them. Her party thinks so little of her that they don't want more than a dozen people to see her debate a grumpy looking old guy that proudly calls himself a socialist.

And I hate saying this because I think Cruz is terrifying and Trump is a phony saying terrifying things.

[visionary]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/fbernie-sanders-gun-control-legislation-support-217886#ixzz3xSQCO4Uh

Following Clinton attacks, Sanders rolls out support for gun legislation

 

After weeks of fighting with Hillary Clinton’s campaign over his gun control record, Bernie Sanders on Saturday night said he backs new legislation that amends a controversial 2005 law on which he voted to limit liability on gun manufacturers.

 

That vote has been at the center of substantial sniping from Clinton allies, and the former secretary of state has been using it as an example of Sanders being out of step with the party on gun control.

 

“I’m pleased that this legislation is being introduced,” said Sanders of legislation from Sen. Richard Blumenthal and Rep. Adam Schiff. “As I have said for many months now, we need to look at the underlying law and tighten it up."

 

Cheering the legislation’s move to leave in place child safety locks and ban armor-piercing ammunition, Sanders also warned that he still wanted to protect smaller gun stores.

 

“I do want to make sure that this legislation does not negatively impact small gun stores in rural America that serve the hunting community. So I’m pleased to support the legislation and should it come up for consideration I would work to make sure it includes a provision that allows us to monitor is impact so that we may determine if it is having any unintended consequences."

 

Sanders’ contention that gun control means something different in his rural state of Vermont than in more urban areas has been a central flash-point in the Democratic primary, and his proposed measure to help small hunting shops is in line with that stance.

 

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/266173-clinton-calls-for-new-sanctions-on-iran

Clinton calls for new sanctions on Iran

 

Hours after the U.S. dropped sanctions on Iran as part of the nuclear deal, Democratic primary front-runner Hillary Clinton called for new sanctions on the nation for its ballistic missile program.

Clinton on Saturday praised President Obama for securing the safe return of four U.S. citizens and implementing the Iranian nuclear deal, but warned that all concerns about Iran are not assuaged.

“Iran is still violating UN Security Council resolutions with its ballistic missile program, which should be met with new sanctions designations and firm resolve,” she said.

“These prisoners were held unjustly by a regime that continues to threaten the peace and security of the Middle East,” Clinton added. “Another American, Bob Levinson, still isn’t home with his family.”

Clinton said, as president, her policy toward Iran would be to “distrust and verify.

The former secretary of State said the U.S. should not “thank” Iran for releasing prisoners unjustly held or for following through on its obligations.

“The treatment of our Navy sailors earlier this week was offensive, including the release of demeaning and provocative videos,” she added, referring to the brief capture of 10 sailors who inadvertently crossed into Iranian waters.

But despite her concerns, Clinton said she was happy to hear of the release of the four Americans.

“I am greatly relieved by the safe return of American prisoners from Iran,” Clinton said in a statement. “Their families and our country have waited and prayed for this day to come.”

Clinton also said the nuclear agreement marks an “important achievement of diplomacy” between Iran and the international community.

“Implementation marks an important step forward in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” she said. “Iran has dismantled centrifuges, disabled a reactor, and shipped out almost all of its enriched uranium.

“These are important steps that make the United States, our allies, and the entire world safer,” she added. “I congratulate President Obama and his team, and I’m proud of the role I played to get this process started.”

[chipwhich]

I also think it's a mistake to assume that Hillary will easily handle either of them. Her party thinks so little of her that they don't want more than a dozen people to see her debate a grumpy looking old guy that proudly calls himself a socialist.

 

 

Everything is just waiting for this Hillary Clinton moment, we all know it's coming, just don't know when.  This began the discussions of the end of the Democratic party, then they promoted him LOL

 

[btfoom]

Everything is just waiting for this Hillary Clinton moment, we all know it's coming, just don't know when.  This began the discussions of the end of the Democratic party, then they promoted him LOL

 

 

I think that the Dems are so scared of Trump because they know that he will attack at any instance.

 

McCain and Romney were so afraid of attacking Obama and being called a racist that they ran and hid.  Trump is different, he won't hold anything back (see the way he's making Bill a liability instead of helping).