HTTR24-7: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: A Two Horse Race

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Is this were i counter with something along the lines of our TE's being more experienced at this level, and our line being set longer TRGE and more?

You can make cases for weak spots on all three teams and in all three men. I was just noting Indy's situation and some of the ridiculous, OTT slights that continue to be shot their and Luck's way from our fans.

Robert's had a better pro start. (Though Andrew's not had a bad season by any stretch of the imagination.). But as absolutely ****-a-hoop as I am with 10, I aren't going to go proclaiming him the better man and us the winners in the big two battle like so many so readily do. Not even a full season into their embryonic pro careers.

---------- Post added December-24th-2012 at 03:05 PM ----------

His rookie season has been, dare I say it, rather Peytonesque. A lof of turnovers, but also a lot signs of promise as well. I expect he's learned a lot this year though, and as he develops as well as his receivers, that could prove to be one of the more consistent offenses in the league.

Uncannily, I think it was in Murph's prediction thread, I had Robert down for exactly the same kind of season as Peyton, ala Andrew's.

Funny how the one I thought was far more pro ready, has not had the same success as the one I thought would be the slower starter of the two.

Hail.

[wpenn1]

Isn't RG3 responsible for making the reads on running plays in the zone read? I keep hearing Luck is asked to do more and I disagree with that. I haven't seen anyone be unfair to Luck. RG3 is just better.

[Mahons21]

Isn't RG3 responsible for making the reads on running plays in the zone read?

A zone read is a much easier read than reading a defense. Much easier.

I keep hearing Luck is asked to do more and I disagree with that. I haven't seen anyone be unfair to Luck. RG3 is just better.

Luck is asked to do far more, and I don't think that's debatable. With that being said, being asked to do more, doesn't necessarily make you better, and in Luck's case it's actually made his statistics look worse.

[Going Commando]

Woah you talking about Bruce Arians? I think he's a great OC.

Their D is better then ours. The changes to their OL actually made their OL better and arguably better then our OL.

Their TE situation has been better then ours and then WRs are equal if not (imo clearly) superior to ours.

I think Luck is a good QB and is having a great rookie year (i actually think Luck is a better rhythm-progression read passer then Griff is right now) but I don't think he's in the ROY conversation.

I don't think Arians is a good fit for Luck. His scheme is all vertical routes and it's feast or famine. Luck can't complete passes at a decent clip, find rhythms, run the ball well, etc.

You just end up with a lot of volume and little ability to play ball control. There were similar problems for the Steelers under Arians.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

Woah you talking about Bruce Arians? I think he's a great OC..

Bruce Arians is terrible. He's the Jim Haslett of offensive coordinators, except Has is better at his job imo. don't know where the hell he got this reputation as a great offensive mind. He's probably good at developing QBs, but as a playcaller and schemer, Kyle could scheme barrel rolls around him. He's never produced a legitimate top 10-good offense as OC, and probably ruined Tim Couch's career, and has almost certainly shortened Roethlisberger's career. His offense has no real route trees, has been on record as saying he hates to draw up short and intermediate routes, despite those being the routes that make a passing game efficient, and is nothing but 5 and 7 yard dropbacks to vertical threats downfield. And it needs an athletic, big QB with a decent arm (which Couch wasn't) for it to work or it falls apart completely.

Todd Haley isn't a great OC either, but Big Ben's sacks taken has absolutely plummeted this year. The Colts OL doing an excellent job protecting Luck given the offense, but he's taking way too many hits simply because he drops back so much, and it's going to take its toll.

If Luck had a decent OC, his numbers would be a lot closer to those of RGIII imo, though he does lack a bit in terms of skillset (arm isn't as live, not as accurate deep. obviously not as fast) in comparison.

[WilberMarshall]

The Skins PR department better not trust the voters to know or do the right thing.

They better remind folks why based on most of the objective indices RGIII should be Rookie of the Year.

[darrelgreenie]

There are several ways to judge a playcallers. One of the main things I look for in the passing is whether the scheme creates open receivers? Arians offense is a pleasure to watch for me because it produces open receivers and does a good job attacking coverages and creating mismatches based on personnel and motion.

However, the scheme is demanding because it doesn't create off playaction as much as other offenses and more onus is placed on the QB to make the proper reads pre-snap and full progression reads post snap. Its a lot to ask for a rookie, but Luck enters the offense ahead of the game if the scouting reports about him are accurate. Arians had a hand in developing Manning in Tom Moore's system and developed Ben Rothisberger as the OC (superbowl winning OC) with the Steelers. Its not like we're talking about Tony Sparano here.

The drawback is Arians is pass focused/pass heavy to a fault. Like Reid, McDaniels, Martz and even McCarthy tend to be at times. Its both a blessing and a curse for the QBs because it puts alot of decision making and onus to move the offense on their arm. But, it also allows the QBs the chance to put up some huge passing numbers. And throw in favorable situations (like 1st downs) and find a rhythm because of the sheer volume of passes thrown.

It is incumbent upon the QB to make the correct decisions. And Luck doesn't always make the best decisions post snap. I'm not gonna knock the scheme for Luck choices.

I bet a QB like Tannehill or Sanchez would love to play in a wide open passing offense like that.

---------- Post added December-24th-2012 at 04:46 PM ----------

Its kinda laughable to consider Arains 'terrible' especially in light of the Colts success this year.

[jobaga]

I think Luck wins the ROY. I am willing to bet the vote won't be that close. I think RG3 has had a better impact on the franchise and city (not just the team). RG3 has energized the fanbase, he has improved the team, he has given the coaching staff the ability to be creative. But, most importantly he has made football matter in DC. Most voters have already made up their minds about Luck and there is nothing RG3 can do to change their minds. I hope RG3 uses it as motivation and has the better career.

[mistertim]

I don't think Arians is a good fit for Luck. His scheme is all vertical routes and it's feast or famine. Luck can't complete passes at a decent clip, find rhythms, run the ball well, etc.

You just end up with a lot of volume and little ability to play ball control. There were similar problems for the Steelers under Arians.

I think this is a pretty fair point regarding Luck and his fit in the Arians scheme. Also remember that he came from a college team that ran almost the opposite type of offense (especially his final year). Stanford relied on ball control and lots of shallow and intermediate routes; they didn't go vertical all that often. Now Luck is in an offense which is pretty much a 180 along with having to adjust to the speed of the NFL game.

Now, that being said, Luck still does and should get blame for some bad decisions. I've definitely seen him ignore easy completions to very open guys underneath or in the flat that would have gotten decent positive yardage in favor of forcing throws downfield into coverage. That could be a combination of the Arians system and Luck...no way to know for sure. Either way, I still don't think Luck should be ROTY; his stats are pretty mediocre (besides passing yards) and ROTY is an award based on individual performance through the year, not on how well your team did.

[benskins26]

Wilson just started to play well a few weeks ago....where was he in the early season?

IIRC, there were rumblings of benching him in like week 6 or so, due to his inability to move he ball.

I watched RW play for 3 years in college, and I've always been impressed, but he's a streaky guy. He gets hot for like 3-4 games, does impressive things, then will go cold for 2-3 games, become a turnover machine. The fans at NC State had a real love/hate thing with him.

I'm betting he's about to hit his cold streak, just in time for the playoffs.

[darrelgreenie]

IIRC, there were rumblings of benching him in like week 6 or so, due to his inability to move he ball.

I remember those baseless sports media rumblings, dude wasn't gonna get benched he's had 3 sub 80 passer rating game all season.

[benskins26]

I remember those baseless sports media rumblings, dude wasn't gonna get benched he's had 3 sub 80 passer rating game all season.

I didn't think so either, but my point is, he wasn't lighting it up back then. ROY shouldn't be considered worthy of benching, whether it was true or not, it was believable based on his play

[darrelgreenie]

I didn't think so either, but my point is, he wasn't lighting it up back then. ROY shouldn't be considered worthy of benching, whether it was true or not, it was believable based on his play

Um Andrew Luck has 8 sub 80 passer rating games. Just look at the game logs on ESPN. Nothing about Russells play nor his stats were bench worthy and the speculation about him being benched was nothing more then sports media fiction.

[benskins26]

Um Andrew Luck has 8 sub 80 passer rating games. Just look at the game logs on ESPN. Nothing about Russells play nor his stats were bench worthy and the speculation about him being benched was nothing more then sports media fiction.

But people believed it, for whatever reason. Again, not saying it was deserved, but I watched some of those games, wasn't that impressed.

Regardless, he's streaky. He'll come back down to earth. I guess this is more fitting for a different thread, but if we make the paloffs and play them, I'm not as worried as some.

ETA: I just went through his entire season week by week, and I was wrong, he hasn't been streaky, more like wildly inconsistent. He has a 3 TD Nearly perfect game, follows it up with 3 TOs, then back to 3 tds, and on it goes. I wouldn't say based on what I just saw that he was worthy of a benching at all- he just couldn't week in week out find success. It is what it is- typical for a rook

[WALEOVECHKIN]

Quick stats:

Wilson 237/374 63.4% 2868 yds, 28 total tds (25 passing) 10 INTs, 431 yds rushing, 5 fumbles (3 lost)

Griffin 249/375 66.4% 3100 yds, 26 total tds (20 passing) 5 INTs, 752 yds rushing, 12 fumbles (2 lost)

Luck 325/599 54.3% 4183 yds, 26 total tds (21 passing), 18 INTs, 254 yds rushing, 10 fumbles (5 lost)

Personal thoughts, Griffin is ahead but the Sunday night game is big and if Wilson has another big game (4 TDs, 0 TOs) then it'll be a toss up IMO.

[Skinsinparadise]

love the arsonist putting out his own fire line.

I think Luck will be very good eventually but the the idea that he's earned ROTY is ridiculous in my book.

A big part of it in my view are people justifying their predispositions. Before the season started, I recall Charley Casserly for example saying that's he'd take Luck 10 times out of 10 over RG III. Today, he still picks Luck over RG III for rookie of the year. Heck I bet he'd say he'd still take Shuler over Dilfer. That's the mindset we are dealing with IMO.

Luck has one of the worst completion rates, INT to TD ratios, QB rating in the league and is tops in interceptions. He's done this versus a weak schedule -- Chiefs, Lions, Bills, Jets, Tenn twice, Jax twice, etc.

[KCClybun]

1.) Arians isn't a great OC. A great OC learns. A great OC adapts. There's a reason why guys who were thought to be offensive geniuses like Cam Cameron and Mike Martz are unemployed right now, and it's much the same reason Arians isn't in Pittsburgh anymore. ADAPT. Learn. And protect your investment. If you can't do that, you don't stay employed long.

Arians is worse than a guy like Martz, really. His scheme doesn't get guys open; it pretty much relies on the principal of "run a deep route, the quarterback buys sometime and, and we'll hope we'll run a big play." His quarterbacks will always take an insane amount of hits and sacks. He doesn't use his tight ends (the Colts spent two picks on the two best tight ends in the draft and Arians doesn't use either one, in spite of the success Luck had throwing to his tight ends in college), and it really is one of the most uncreative schemes in the NFL. The fact that every once in a blue moon they run some West Coast Offense concepts in that offense is about as different as it gets; otherwise it's just "get deep and hope for the best".

2.) Those who talk about how Luck's asked to do more pre-snap and recognize more coverages, etc., tend not to realize...he's not very good at it. On top of playing in a scheme that's not exactly condusive to quarterback efficiency.

I don't know how else to put it but like this; he plays like Rex Grossman. A LOT. I don't cast the whole "he plays like Rex Grossman" thing lightly, but it's the only comparison I can think of that makes any sense; he plays like Rex. There are times when he plays like an all worlder and you see what the hype was about. And then there's times when you scratch your head and wonder "what the hell was he doing there?"

I know people will believe that's hyperbole, but that's the guy I see; a more athletic Rex. Same mediocre-to-good arm strength, same maddening tendency to throw into coverage, same inaccuracy, same odd inability to know when to fire a bullet and when to throw it over the top, same baffling decision making, same ability to be wildly inconsistent from game to game and even quarter to quarter, or drive to drive. Both guys have started their careers playing in crap schemes by stubborn coordinators when they are much better in carefully managed, run oriented offenses that utilize three-and-five step, rhythm passing.

Luck has not played well this season. People talk about the game winning drives, but they don't talk about the times in the game winning drives when a bad throw bounced off a defensive backs hands. This is about more than having more responsibility; the guy refuses to take a checkdown whenever Arians decides to put one in the offense. He hates taking the easy throw; he will force the stupid throw and hope he gets a big play out of it. And I don't know if that's him, or if it's coaching, or what.

People say they can't run the ball, but they don't try, and it ain't like Andrew Luck ever checks to a run either, for all the responsibility he has.

Arians and Luck are NOT a good match. Like, at all. I was shocked when the Colts hired Arians instead of getting someone out of the West Coast Offense tree to keep things as similiar for Luck as possible. And now, without being as tightly managed, with "more responsibility", Luck is making dumber decisions, that are almost always on him. Worse, Arians has tried to pass it off on the receivers a couple times this season, when it doesn't make any sense.

ROTY is between Wilson and RG3. I would be miffed but I'd be understading if Wilson won.

If Luck comes anywhere close to it, I'll be shocked and angry, but he has not earned if. As has been said, if RG3 had the same stats and Luck had RG3's stats, it wouldn't matter how many games we won, people would be screaming their heads off about what a mistake it was to move up and draft him.

[darrelgreenie]

Arians and the Colts targeted their TEs 109 times for 68 catches 780 yards (despite Fleener missing games due to injury)

Lol, how can anyone in their right mind knock Arians (a 2 time SB champion OC) coaching this season? its too absurd to even argue

Luck and Arians are such a poor match and the scheme is so terrible that their offense is top 10 in yards; at 10-5 they're playoff bound, Luck is being considered by many (not me btw) for rookie of the year largely based on his 4,183 yard passing total

[Pride]

Luck gets dumped on way too much around here... If I had a ROY vote I'd be totally torn between the three of them. Four weeks ago I would not have had Wilson in the discussion, but he has been sensational lately and that Seattle offense looks incredibly good (but they've played some dogs lately-tonight will be a real test).

Luck is being asked to do more than either of the other two, so it stands to reason that he's making more mistakes. The Seahawks and Redskins might be the two best running teams in football; Luck does not have a RB or OL that can hold a candle to the Redskins or Seahwaks. No doubt he has benefited from a softer schedule, but giving credit where its due- the Colts were putrid last year; 2-14 and consistently annihilated weekly. Both the Redskins and Seahawks had a better base.

The fact that Indy is about to go from 2 wins to 10 or 11 is remarkable and it is directly attributable to Luck.

I said before the draft that Luck/RG3 was about as good a duo as we will ever see. I said that gun to my head, I'd say Luck will be a slightly better player, but that RG3 felt like the right guy at the right time for DC. I feel the same way now. 15 years from now I think Luck will go down as the better overall player, but I think RG3 will be so good here that it won't matter.

As previously mentioned, it's an individual award for QB play. once you bring in other team variables it ceases to become an individual award and becomes a team award. Which is it?

[Chachie]

It will be Wilson. It should be Luck. Griffin will win MVP in 2014.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

Arians and the Colts targeted their TEs 109 times for 68 catches 780 yards (despite Fleener missing games due to injury)

Given that the Colts have thrown 599 passes, 109/599 targets to TEs doesn't seem like much. 18% to be exact

In contrast, we've targeted our TEs (a far inferior group to Fleener and Allen after Davis went down) 81 times for 56 catches and for 777 yards on 122 fewer passes. We've targeted our TEs only 1% less despite their TEs being a major position of strength for them and a position of weakness for us after Davis went down.

Lol, how can anyone in their right mind knock Arians (a 2 time SB champion OC) coaching this season? its too absurd to even argue[/Quote]

Arians only won once as an OC.

And the year he won, his offense ranked 20th in points.

As Steelers OC, his offense ranked top 10 in points ONCE and bottom 20 in points twice with Ben Roethlisberger, and an array of offensive weapons ranging from Santonio Holmes to Heath Miller to Hines Ward. And his ridiculous "**** IT IM GOING DEEP" playcalling has almost certainly taken 3-5 years off Ben Roethlisberger's career.

Luck and Arians are such a poor match and the scheme is so terrible that their offense is top 10 in yards; at 10-5 they're playoff bound, Luck is being considered by many (not me btw) for rookie of the year largely based on his 4,183 yard passing total

Let's just ignore all the context around those stats - the inefficiency, the turnovers, the weak schedule. Rex Grossman threw 30 yards less a game than Luck last year on similar YPA with at best equivalent support, should we hold him in high regard too?

[DCthomahal]

Luck gets dumped on way too much around here...

15 years from now I think Luck will go down as the better overall player, but I think RG3 will be so good here that it won't matter.

I think you make some good points, but this last bit (which is held by quite a few people) puzzles me.

In what way? I mean in what specific QB skill area does it look like Luck has any kind of advantage over RGIII? Even long term (as things look now).

This is NOT saying Luck is overrated or is "really" a schlub.

I had no idea that Griffin's accuracy and decision making would translate to the NFL anywhere NEAR to the degree it has. Griffin bristles at EXTREMELY few things, but people not appreciating his pure passer skills is one thing he has had responded to several times. I was plenty skeptical before the season, but I have seen just WAY too many absolutely perfect, I mean --there is NO WAY-- precisely PERFECT passes, in critical games at critical times to have ANY skepticism left on this point. Ability to read defenses?: His TD to INT ratio is unreal. His completion percentage is about off the chart. His pass to Moss for the TD in this last game is only one of many passes that not Luck, not even Jurgensen or Baugh, could have placed more perfectly. Long ball?: Cue string of memories of game changing bombs (how many has he missed?).

Leadership? Dude's been made a captain of a team with a lot of very well respected veteran leaders. How much of our turn around is due directly to RGIII's influence and leadership is, I suppose, debatable, but it would be ludicrous to not AT LEAST see his leadership as indispensable to this season turning out WAY better than we had any reason to expect.

Then there are the running, play-faking, extending plays, etc. etc. etc. that I have not heard Luck even mentioned as a serious contender with RGIII.

What else is left? Medium deep passes? Really?

I agree that what Luck has done this season is deserving of the word Great. I personally don't think that Morris possibly getting 1,500 yards gets nearly the attention it deserves (bloody unreal in and of itself).

But what specifically is Luck or anyone else showing that, even optimistically viewed in the long-term, even plays out as superior to RGIII?

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

Arians and the Colts targeted their TEs 109 times for 68 catches 780 yards (despite Fleener missing games due to injury)

Given that the Colts have thrown 599 passes, 109/599 targets to TEs doesn't seem like much. 18% to be exact

In contrast, we've targeted our TEs (a far inferior group to Fleener and Allen after Davis went down) 81 times for 56 catches and for 777 yards on 122 fewer passes. We've targeted our TEs only 1% less despite their TEs being a major position of strength for them and a position of weakness for us after Davis went down.

Lol, how can anyone in their right mind knock Arians (a 2 time SB champion OC) coaching this season? its too absurd to even argue[/Quote]

Arians only won once as an OC.

And the year he won, his offense ranked 20th in points.

As Steelers OC, his offense ranked top 10 in points ONCE and bottom 20 in points twice with Ben Roethlisberger, and an array of offensive weapons ranging from Santonio Holmes to Heath Miller to Hines Ward. And his ridiculous "**** IT IM GOING DEEP" playcalling has almost certainly taken 3-5 years off Ben Roethlisberger's career.

Luck and Arians are such a poor match and the scheme is so terrible that their offense is top 10 in yards; at 10-5 they're playoff bound, Luck is being considered by many (not me btw) for rookie of the year largely based on his 4,183 yard passing total

Let's just ignore all the context around those stats - the inefficiency, the turnovers, the weak schedule. Rex Grossman threw 30 yards less a game than Luck last year on similar YPA with at best equivalent support, should we hold him in high regard too?

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

I agree with the Rex comparison at this point in his career. I think the only reason that I think he is better than ppl on here give him credit because I saw him live but it's hard to defend that many sub-50% passing games. Either he'll figure the TO problem out like Peyton did or he'll just be a rich man's Rex Grossman.

RGIII is still my pick even though I feel like he and Russell are close as ****

[darrelgreenie]

We've targeted our TEs only 1% less

So when someone points to their offense and proclaims they don't target their TEs its would be as wronged headed as saying Kyle doesn't target TEs no?

Let's just ignore all the context around those stats - the inefficiency, the turnovers, the weak schedule. Rex Grossman threw 30 yards less a game than Luck last year on similar YPA with at best equivalent support, should we hold him in high regard too?

Whatever floats your boat. But don't confuse your ramblings above about Rex as an argument against Arians offense.

---------- Post added December-24th-2012 at 11:45 PM ----------

I agree with the Rex comparison at this point in his career. I think the only reason that I think he is better than ppl on here give him credit because I saw him live but it's hard to defend that many sub-50% passing games.

Its crazy to compare Rex to Luck. And I think comp% is one of the most overrated/over valued measures of the passing game.