HTTR24-7: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: A Two Horse Race

[veteranskinsfan]

I just want to see all three "rookie" quarterbacks in the playoffs this year. I don't think that has ever happened before. All three are going to be good for a long time. I was able to watch Luck at Stanford and Harbaugh left Stanford knowing he would never have another quarterback like him to coach again. I really like all 3 quarterbacks and of course I really appreciate RGIII. RGII has amazing leadership skills that the Skins

have not had since Jurgensen. I like the parallel too that he is from Texas and so was that

other famous Redskins quarterback who coached the Skins many years ago prior to Sonny Jurgensen's arrival.

[Roger.Staubach]

If you guys beat us next week, I hope that Seattle ends up in Washington. Would be an interesting matchup for sure.

[autoidiodyssey]

Wilson and Luck have both had 3 pick meltdown games this year. Luck has had 3 sub 52 passer rating games. Wilson has had two sub 46 games. RG3's lowest was 72 against the Steelers with double digit drops from the WRs. Not only have his lows been higher, his highs have been higher. RG3 has three games over 130 passer rating including one perfect game and eight over 100. Wilson has two over 130 with a high of 133 and also eight over 100. Luck only has two over 100, the high being 107.

I think it also needs to be mentioned that the Seahawks picked up the read option stuff in the middle of the year. Wilson has been noticeably better in since then. RG3's success had to impact their decision. Without RG3 playing the way he did in the first few weeks of the year you might not see Wilson doing what he is doing now.

[HailToTheRedskins14]

Wilson is the only competitor for ROY that RG3 has. I'm tired of hearing "Luck is asked to do a lot more" and all that. Based on what? What does that even mean? Just because he throws it a lot more? That doesn't change the fact that his TD/INT ratio is awful, and his completion % is awful.

Let's be real. If RG3 had Luck's stats, people would be laughing at the Redskins for trading up to draft a guy that basically sucks. Luck is no different from Rex Grossman statistically. Maybe he'll be good, but this isn't the same NFL Peyton Manning began in. It's a passer-friendly league, and Luck isn't very impressive. He definitely isn't "the most pro-ready QB ever" and isn't "already a genius at reading defenses" that we kept hearing for two years in college.

I don't care if he's good or bad, but it seems like everyone just regurgitates what ESPN says - "He's gonna be GREAT, he's asked to do more than anybody in the league, but he's not having the best year for a rookie QB ever as we expected." I just don't see it.

Just flip RG3's stats with Luck's and see if you can imagine Colts fans or talking heads sticking up for RG3 with those awful stats. It wouldn't happen.

[No Excuses]

Wilson has the benefit of a solid defense backing him up which surely makes the life a lot easier for the offense.

For us, it's pretty much score, score and score because you never know when the defense completely ****s the bed.

[darrelgreenie]

The sports media machine that pushed Luck as the greatest QB since Elway and Manning cling hard to their pre-draft proclaimations that they look for reasons however flimsy to support their previously held opinions.

[daklieb]

andrew lucks stats are grossman-esque just look at them lol

[HoggLife]

I agree. I think RG3 is #1, Wilson is #2 and Luck is #3. SInce RG3 missed a game tho i can see why people would pick Wilson over RG3.

[storretti]

I honestly would give it to Russel Wilson. 3rd round pick, knocked for his height, and playing at the level he is playing at, it's very impressive. Granted, I haven't seen any games that he has played, but from what I have read, he has been playing really well.

[MustangSteve]

And so it happend. I've got to say that I'm very impressed with Seattle and they scare me the most out of any playoff team!

Did it ever, I agree with ya about not wanting any part of them, even in another Country they destroyed the Bills and laid 50 points on the board for the second week in a row. That team could knock any team out the playoffs, but when Kyle opens our offense up like he did in Dallas and 1st Philly game, and quits playing around the damn LOS like we did yesterday, we could knock any team out as well.

Im hoping he only did this for the sake of RG3 and keeping him safe. Now it's time to hammer the accelerator, we need to blow Dallas away and make a statement for what ever team comes here 1st for the Playoffs.

[illone]

I honestly would give it to Russel Wilson. 3rd round pick, knocked for his height, and playing at the level he is playing at, it's very impressive. Granted, I haven't seen any games that he has played, but from what I have read, he has been playing really well.

He is playing at a very high level right now.

The only issue I have with giving him ROY, is that he hasn't been playing like this all year, and RG3 has. To me that is why RG3 will win the ROY over him, much more consistent play throughout the year.

[mike42]

Wilson just started to play well a few weeks ago....where was he in the early season?

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

The knock on Luck is astounding me the more I read it.

I wonder if we'd be saying the same if Luck was ours and Robert Indy's, with the same season's as of now? That's rhetorical BTW .....

Hail.

[jnhay]

People are getting out of hand with their criticism of Luck. Does he deserve ROY, I'd say definitely no considering how well the other two QBs are playing. Does he suck? Far from it, he's still pretty damn good.

[Going Commando]

The knock on Luck is astounding me the more I read it.

I wonder if we'd be saying the same if Luck was ours and Robert Indy's, with the same season's as of now? That'as rhetorical BTW .....

Hail.

I wouldn't argue seriously for Luck for ROTY if he was our QB. I don't think he's even been one of the five best offensive rookies this season. I don't think he belongs in the conversation for ROTY.

But I do think he has a bright future ahead of him if the Colts ever get wise to the fact that Bruce Arians is not a good fit for him.

[Lavarleap56]

NFL QB Rating: (1) RGIII 104.1 , (7) Wilson 98.0 (25) Luck 75.6

NFL Accuracy %: (1) RGIII 80.8% w/ 8.8% drops (9) Wilson 75.1% w/ 5.4% drops (25) Luck 67% w/ 7.3% drops

Under Pressure: (1) RGIII up-35.2%, Comp % 58.4 Acc % 78.4 (6) Wilson up-38.7% comp % 43.1 Acc % 63.5 (21) Luck up 39%, Comp% 41.8 Acc% 54.5

% First Down Passes: (5) RGIII 38.7% 145/375 (7)Russell 37.7% 141/371 (21) Luck 33.2% 199/599

% passes Intercepted: (2) RGIII 1.3% 5/375 (20) Wilson 2.7% 10/374.. Luck outside the top 20 at 3.0% 18/599

QB Rating 2 WR sets: (1) RGIII 137.8 (7) Wilson 105.1 (10) Luck 98.6

QB Rating 3 WR sets: (7) Wilson 93.2 (8) RGIII 92.1 Luck outside the top 20 but 8 in AFC with 78.3

QB Rating 4WR: (9) RGIII 91.0 (11) Wilson 89.6 (31) Luck 64.1

QB games vs Quality opponent: (1) Wilson 6-1 (10) RGIII 4-3 (27) Luck 2-3

YPA: (1) RG3 8.3 (7) Wilson 7.7 (18) Luck 7.0

Completion %: (5) RG3 66.4 (12) Wilson 62.9 (36) Luck 54.3

[Going Commando]

The sports media machine that pushed Luck as the greatest QB since Elway and Manning cling hard to their pre-draft proclaimations that they look for reasons however flimsy to support their previously held opinions.

Yeah.

A lot of people stand to look real stupid if Luck bombs. I don't think he will though. I think he will be a good player which is different from being a great prospect. In prospect terms, great = safe. Doesn't speak exclusively about their upside once they get in the league.

Did you see PFF's rookie grades?

Luck isn't even remotely close to Wilson or RGIII: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/18/race-for-rookie-of-the-year-week-15/

And in fact, Mitchell Schwartz, Alfred Morris, Kevin Zeitler, and Matt Kalil all have significantly better grades than Luck too.

Casey Heywards grade is pretty crazy. He should win DROTY.

[truskinsfan18]

Was Cam Newton ROY last season?

Based on these baseless Luck for ROY arguments, shouldn't Andy Dalton have been ROY last season since his team made the playoffs and he turned them around?

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

To be fair to Luck, the 2012 Colts have a completely new line from the center on out the right side, a rookie RB who's no Morris; and two rookie TE's starting in their base. And as has been noted, a new boneheaded OC not fully utilizing his talents. Throw in a completely changed D, with pieces that don't fit a 34 (sound familiar?); and the turmoil over the HC for a large chunk of the season and it's still a fantastic job all ways round for him to have them at 10 wins IMHO.

That's not to say Robert and to a much lesser extent Wilson are in ideal scenarios, but it's all relative.

Now on pure stats alone, which has to be the main deciding factor over a year, he shouldn't be close to being ROY. But the barbs from many on him around these parts all year long have gotten beyond ridiculous.

Hail.

[Mahons21]

Now on pure stats alone, which has to be the main deciding factor over a year, he shouldn't be close to being ROY. But the barbs from many on him around these parts all year long have gotten beyond ridiculous.

Totally agree (it's almost as bad as Haslett ), the guy is a good QB and likely to become great. I'd predict that Luck will have the largest jump in performance of the 3 Qbs from his rookie season to his second season.

[darrelgreenie]

Woah you talking about Bruce Arians? I think he's a great OC.

Their D is better then ours. The changes to their OL actually made their OL better and arguably better then our OL.

Their TE situation has been better then ours and then WRs are equal if not (imo clearly) superior to ours.

I think Luck is a good QB and is having a great rookie year (i actually think Luck is a better rhythm-progression read passer then Griff is right now) but I don't think he's in the ROY conversation.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Totally agree (it's almost as bad as Haslett ), the guy is a good QB and likely to become great. I'd predict that Luck will have the largest jump in performance of the 3 Qbs from his rookie season to his second season.

Mark me down as thinking the same.

And I may of chuckled on the Haslett line. ******. Lol.

Hail.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

To be fair to Luck, the 2012 Colts have a completely new line from the center on out the right side

Which gives up far fewer sacks per dropback than ours or Seattle's

, a rookie RB who's no Morris

Ballard isn't Morris, but I figured the greatest QB prospect ever wouldn't need a Pro Bowl RB.

; and two rookie TE's starting in their base.

Both of whom are better than Paulsen and Paul, who RGIII has been throwing to for the past 9 games.

And as has been noted, a new boneheaded OC not fully utilizing his talents.

Fair assessment, though Ben Roethlisberger had to deal with the same things and won a title and put up great numbers. And given the hype around Luck, he was supposed to be a Pro Bowler out of the gate.

Throw in a completely changed D, with pieces that don't fit a 34 (sound familiar?); and the turmoil over the HC for a large chunk of the season and it's still a fantastic job all ways round for him to have them at 10 wins IMHO.

Their D has given up more than 30 points four times - all games where Luck committed 3 or more turnovers. The two other games they gave up more than 25 were against the Packers and Texans.

[Symbol]

I don't think it should even be close. Heck, RGIII now has his own Christmas theme song:

http://www.csnwashington.com/video_content_type/redskins-christmas-carol-oh-rgiii

[Mahons21]

Mark me down as thinking the same.

His rookie season has been, dare I say it, rather Peytonesque. A lof of turnovers, but also a lot signs of promise as well. I expect he's learned a lot this year though, and as he develops as well as his receivers, that could prove to be one of the more consistent offenses in the league.