Am i wrong to believe?

[SWFLSkins]

Very true, I'm pretty sick of just scraping by though. Can't we just have the division in the bag by week 14?

Not this year IMO. And remember your blade is sharpened by grinding against your competitors. If your competition is weak, so are you.

[CommanderDOOM]

Are u saying that proof of our defense being so good is that we had so many turnovers by the offense and still ranked 13th on D. The Packers had about as many 30 point give ups as our D and ranked significantly lower but were still able to win. Their offense had to be incredible.

[FSUSkins24]

There are mods here who have favorite's here apparently and don't like anyone making them look silly.

Jumbo, is this true? I'm honored.

You haven't made anyone look silly. Well, almost nobody. At this point the only reason I'm keeping this up has more to do with the sentiment in GHH's last post than anything.

I have never stated that the QB turning the ball over does not lead to another team potentially scoring more points. Your QB turnover to >30 points relationship thingy that you sprouted out of your flawless idea factory is a statistical fallacy. Yet you have over and over stated it as FACT.

This is the Redskins QB turnovers by week in 2011

INT/F

Week 1: 0/1 Under 30 points

Week 2: 2/0 Under 30 points

Week 3: 1/1 Under 30 points

Week 4: 2/0 Under 30 points

Bye

Week 6: 4/0 Under 30 points

Week 7: 1/1 OVER 30 points

Week 8: 2/0 Under 30 points

Week 9: 1/0 Under 30 points

Week 10: 2/0 Under 30 points

Week 11: 1/0 Under 30 points

Week 12: 2/0 Under 30 points

Week 13: 1/1 OVER 30 points

Week 14: 1/1 OVER 30 points

Week 15: 2/0 Under 30 points

Week 16: 1/1 OVER 30 points

Week 17: 1/0 OVER 30 points

...statistical fallacy.

Now I can't honestly tell you if you are in fact in the Twilight Zone, where everything isn't as it seems. However, I just spoke with the Great and Powerful OZ and he says there is a good chance.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Not this year IMO. And remember your blade is sharpened by grinding against your competitors. If your competition is weak, so are you.

Very good point, I wouldn't want to win the NFC west every year. The Beast is a grind and you have to earn it to win it the way it should be. Winning it is validation of us because of the teams you had to take down to get there. To be the man you gotta beat the man, whoo!

Ironically, the inverse of this is my beloved VT, who I think one reason they struggle playing good OoC teams is due to becoming soft playing the weak acc schedule. Though that is a whole other discussion in itself...

---------- Post added July-29th-2012 at 06:42 PM ----------

Somebody should post the NFL rankings of total QB turnovers and points given up.

Perhaps GB was just an outlier or other factors impact their number ie fast pace quick strike offense allows more possessions for other team.

[FSUSkins24]

Somebody should post the NFL rankings of total QB turnovers and points given up.

Perhaps GB was just an outlier or other factors impact their number ie fast pace quick strike offense allows more possessions for other team.

Tebowmania out in Denver had 12 turnovers and his defense gave up 5 30 pointers, and they were the opposite of quick strike (4 out of the 5 games that went over 30 were while he was starting).

[NoVaSkins21]

Now that the Skins have a legit franchise QB, I don't think playoffs are out of the question. When I think of the difference that guys like Flacco and Ryan had the very same year both were drafted, it does give me goosebumps. RG3 will definitely be a dynamic QB, one that this town hasn't had for years. I think it's just a matter of how quickly he can learn and adapt this year.

[Ned Flanders]

Actually I don't mind some criticism if I say something stupid. But everyone talks about you can't turn the ball over consistently and win games. You can't turn the ball over more than you get it and win games. We hear it all the time from coaches and players. We see it all the time for ourselves. Then when I point that out and draw a correlation between 30 point games being scored against a team with an inordinate amount of turnovers, the first response from somebody is terming it "WRONG".

Sorry but if he had said "in my opinion" then fine, but he was stating that it doesn't happen that way when in fact anybody with a brain can look at the stats, or watch NFL Sunday and see it for yourself. Turn the ball over twice 3 or 4 times in a game and yes, most likely you are gonna give up 30 points. And he says "WRONG". What kind of twilight zone logic is that. I just defended my position and then one of the mods has determined somehow that I have "duplicate" accounts because I disagreed with a disagree-er. Come on. I'm all grown up and can handle a little debate.

There are mods here who have favorite's here apparently and don't like anyone making them look silly. If that's the case perhaps I don't belong here. I can follow the Skins with my television, cable, and ESPN without a problem I can go to the games. But some of those Skins fans and mods just need to take a chill pill and realize that not everybody falls in line with the status quo.

Just because ESPN and every expert predicts the Skins will fall nicely into last place, I don't because Rex Grossman is not the QB anymore and for the other reasons I stated. If you don't believe that, fine...don't look for me to argue and tell you that you are wrong. But when we state facts, that word should not be used. That pretty much was the whole point.

I guess I'll just go on believing and wait here for the season to start and when it does, watch and see how multiple turnovers turn into 30 point games and no turnovers tend to be low scores against the Redskins defense.

It all makes sense now. You're still reeling in pain from when the cowboys beat us in the Super Bowl back in the 80's, right?

Hail :logo:

And for the record,, I believe anything is possible, even with rgiii giving up 40 picks

[paloosa]

I see what the OP was trying to say and I agree that if we cut down on turnovers then we will win more games. But we also have to stop making critical mistakes that allow other teams to continue their drives or stop our own. Holding penalties when it is 3rd and 2 to go, offsides when it is 3rd and 4, a late hit out of bounds when the pass is complete and 2 yards short of a first down or many other mistakes this team has made. Most of those mistakes are going to be eliminated because the majority of those players who commited those mistakes are no longer here.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

You are not wrong to believe. I take a lot of my optimistic cues from Shanny (the real ones, not the "I believe in Rex and Beck" coach speak). He's been to the top before, and I think he likes the foundation that is being laid here. I feel like he thinks he can bring us a Lombardi. So that has me optimistic and happy. It'll take some time, but I think with a few good breaks that we could be in the hunt this year. And who deserves a few good breaks? We sure as hell do.

And this offseason is the perfect time for kool-aid drinking. The last four offseasons...not so much.

[BleedBNG]

Every year is different and anythings possible. Heck, you can go into it NOT believing we'll make the playoffs... then all of a sudden, at the end... there we are.

Look at the Nats

[redskin01fan]

I agree with you because I think that the team could have pulled out more wins last year if it wasn't for untimely interceptions thrown by Grossman. In retrospect however, Interceptions got us "Bob" in the end and I really believe this kid is going to be the real deal after several months of reading and listening to reports about him and hearing his interviews. I will admit I was not sold on RGIII while the college season was till full go last year but I am a huge fan now and I think he can make a huge difference. The injury bug that has plagued us the past few years is the only thing, I believe, keeping this team from winning 10-11 games this year. I think that this year the Redskins are last years 49'ers. No real discussion of them being a contender but will suprise alot of folks in the end.

[worstSeat]

Sorry, have to laugh on that one.

I've had too many years of optimism. We've "won" too many offseasons. Until I see it on the field, I remain unconvinced.

Think of the poor, poor teenagers and, now, even young twenty-somethings who have never seen the Redskins win. I guess they got a taste when Gibbs 2.0 won a Wild Card game, but that -- okay, and one by Norv -- is it. That's their mountain. That's their NFL promised land. Wow.

I guess the question isn't so much do you believe (no, not really, not any more; I'd be happy with 8-8 and ecstatic with paloffs), but who are the believers born after 1991, and why the heck do they?

[DaGoonie55]

Man its never boring in here.

I can't help but drink the kool-aid. So many pieces seem to be in place, we have a long LONG way to go, but it is unlike any of the last 10 seasons (honestly as far back as I can remember offseasons).

Like Aerosmith said, "dream on!"

HTTR

[Murphs56]

Am I wrong for thinking RG III still looks small out there? I hate saying it, I know he's measured at 6'2, but for some reason, when I look at him, I see small. Maybe it's his build, I don't know. I know he's as big as Rodgers and Sanchez, but it still gets me scared...I don't think it will be lack of skill/decision-making/work ethic that stops him from being great. I think the only thing will be injuries

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Think of the poor, poor teenagers and, now, even young twenty-somethings who have never seen the Redskins win. I guess they got a taste when Gibbs 2.0 won a Wild Card game, but that -- okay, and one by Norv -- is it. That's their mountain. That's their NFL promised land. Wow.

I guess the question isn't so much do you believe (no, not really, not any more; I'd be happy with 8-8 and ecstatic with paloffs), but who are the believers born after 1991, and why the heck do they?

Once it's in your blood, it's all you can do. My first football memory was bits and pieces of the Bills SB because i got to stay up late past my bedtime. I was five. Since then it has been a struggle but we believe because we bleed burgundy and gold. Despite all the embarrassments and ineptitude that has epitomized the Redskins for basically my entire life, I know that one day, we will put it all together and when we stand on top of that mountain, all those years of pain and anguish will be lifted off all our shoulders. Many of you have experienced this already.

This younger generation that hasn't...that is what keeps us going...that dry hungry mouth yearning, craving dying for that sweet taste or victory...yeah we have been stranded in a football desert for 20 years but we have heard stories of what that water tastes like...we can either choose to believe and continue searching for that mirage that isn't a fake, the real waterfall that will make all our years worth something...or we can stop believing...and die with that dry hungry mouth.

I'm really tired...

[Polo3]

If Andy Dalton, a stone cold rookie last season, can elevate the Bengals.....yes, the Cincinnati BENGALS...to the post season, then I don't know why we say it's impossible for RG3 to have the same kind of effect.

Could he struggle and we win 5 or 6 games? Sure.

Why is that scenario always a given?

This club has wandered the NFL wilderness for 20+ years. We've had two seasons of actually using the draft,tightening up our FA spending and getting this roster younger/faster. That's what everyone here has been clamoring for, right?

And now, we've made the investment in one of the best QB prospects in years and the guy has shown, so far, to learn quickly from his mistakes, says all the right things and seems sincere in his dedication to the team and his craft.

And here we all are, still sitting on the edge of the cliff like Wile E. Coyote, waiting for someone to saw the cliff off.

Can we not allow ourselves as a fanbase to have even a glimmer of hope?

:1stplace::1stplace::1stplace::1stplace::1stplace:

[roanoker]

Long story short, it's not wrong to believe. Hail

[SWFLSkins]

Am I wrong for thinking RG III still looks small out there? I hate saying it, I know he's measured at 6'2, but for some reason, when I look at him, I see small. Maybe it's his build, I don't know. I know he's as big as Rodgers and Sanchez, but it still gets me scared...I don't think it will be lack of skill/decision-making/work ethic that stops him from being great. I think the only thing will be injuries

You can't possibly see him from where you are.

[newday]

I for one don't think reality is so bad that we need to resort to crazy things like faith and fantasy. We're rebuilding. It will take a while. Anything can happen, but on paper it would seem we're probably a year or two away from making the playoffs. Adding new players is great but they need time to learn the system and show their worth on the field.

So many things need to happen:

1) RG3 needs to be legit. We don't know whether they's a top 10 QB in the NFL yet. Probably won't be for a couple of years yet.

2) O-line needs more talent, depth and time in the system. Serious issues at RT. Cory's ACL is no joke. We have a patchwork O-line, again this year. Remember the Buffalo game last year? How much better will this year's line be by mid-season?

3) Who's in the secondary. Having lots of bodies in camp is great. But its hard for a team to play well together unless they have done it consistently with the same system and personnel repeatedly. Will DHall have the confidence to jump a route because he knows the free safety (who is that today?) will adjust his route and cover his mark?

That's just a shortlist. Lot's of open questions. Every time has them. But not every team has been the bottom of their division for years.

I'm hoping we AVOID the bottom of the NFC East this year. Would be thrilled with that result. And discover who our top starters will be by seeing them prove their worth over 16 games. Come out of the season without losing people to career threatening injuries. And give the Shannies enough wins to keep them around longer for the sake of continuity. Now, that would be as far as my 'faith' can stretch itself given the current reality.

[my_friend_goo]

Stats are a good way of justifying what you've seen, but less so of predicting the future. I thought the OP's point was that our D was good enough to limit the number of times opponents scored 30+ points considering the number of turnovers generated by our QB, hence, reducing the number of turnovers by the QB should lead to more wins if coupled with a constant defensive performance. Problem is, football is a game of many variables and a good number of those are in the hands of the opposition, others in the hands of fate if you wish.

Given that scoring points has plagued the Skins in recent years, minimising turnovers AND increasing offensive scoring productivity (more scoring drives, converting more of those promising drives into touchdowns rather than field goal attempts), coupled with an equal defensive performance should lead to more wins, given an equal performance by opposing teams. Moves were obviously made in the off-season to address this, but it remains to be seen whether what we see on paper translates to on-field success. That's been the issue most seasons. You could make the argument that the quality of the off-season moves has gotten better and yes, this could ultimately be what makes the difference this time round.

From what I've read so far, I think the Skins will make improvements in some areas on offense this year, but they may take steps backwards elsewhere. It should be fun to watch, though, and should the improvement not be so obviously noticeable this year, it should the next or the year after that. There's nothing wrong in believing, though. Faith is what gets us through many things!

[Philip Pease]

I believe we are going to be really good this year. Do I have some justification for my belief? Here is my rational -

Offense - just like the original poster, I believe that Robert will be a better QB that Rex - he will have fewer interceptions and fumbles and his quickness will result in less sacks. If this proves correct then it is likely we will have more wins. His ability to throw the long ball with accuracy along with his athletic ability to roll out gives the long pass plays time to develop and that is a dimension we did not have last year. This extra dimension (the long pass) means defenses need to cover a much bigger area (safeties need to stay back, defensive ends need to hold their outside position) and so the Redskin offense will be much more difficult to defend. In short, I think we will be a better offense in both running and passing just because of what Robert Griffin III brings to the game. Of course, to have a deep pass threat we need receivers that bring that threat; and I think we have added those type receivers this year.

Defense - Since we instituted the 3-4 defensive scheme two years ago our defense has finally become proficient. That transition took awhile but in this our third season we now have the personnel to execute with perfection. Our front seven looks to be one of the best in the league. How will our secondary perform is the big question. Are we better than last year? I do not have a real good reason to say we will be terrific; but we do have a different group of players and a new coach (who I have heard some very positive reports).

So from a talent standpoint I think our offense will be significantly better and that will result in improvements in time of possession, turnovers, points, and wins.

Coaching - This is the third season under this coaching staff and that means the transformation is pretty much complete; the growing pains of an entire new system are over and everyone is on the same page. Mike S. has proven he has the ability to create championship teams and I feel the Redskins team feel they can win. Confidence, hard work, and accountability is what successful teams possess and I think Mike S. and his staff have inculcated those qualities into the Redskins team. I already know the team will be ready to compete in every game and will give it their all for a full 60 minutes. They will be sharp and focused in their execution for that is something this coaching staff stresses.

In summary - I am optimistic and I have what I think are solid reasons to justify my outlook. My wife says I say that every year and she is correct; but I tell her that this year is different and she tells me that I say that every year also, and she is right. She thinks that since last year we were not very good that this year will be the same; but I think every year is a new one and what happened in the past has little effect on how the next game plays out.

[pjfootballer]

Why is everyone saying Griffin needs 2 years to become a legit QB? How is he any different from Newton and Dalton? Or Andrew Luck? What is it about him that any of you think he can't come in a play good (notice I didn't say great) from the start? Sure, he'll make some rookie mistakes, but he's a baller. Why is everyone so conservative with this team? Is it from being burned from the previous years? I'm ready to go. I say at least 9 wins. I'm tired of staying medium. Staying medium or conservative keeps us in 4th place. Screw that.

[kingdaddy]

Not only are you not wrong but I expect the Skins to beat the Saints in week 1. We will unleash a mean pass rush on Drew Brees and Helu will rush for 130 yards and 2 td's. RG lll will go 17 of 27 with 2 td passes to go along with 84 yards rushing. 10 wins is easily within reach. Keep believin!

[DirtyGunz8]

I don't want to quote Jim Mora, but he has the perfect quote for this thread. PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS are you kidding me?!?

[MWAI]

Been a long time since I commented on my original thread. But whether my original 10-6 prediction comes to pass, I believe that my original theorem is valid, based on QB turnovers. Rex and Beck had those 30 turnovers...and I predicted that if RG3 could limit them to 15 or less then we could win those 10 games. Well, right now we are on track. Doesn't really matter if we end up with 9 wins or 10 wins I will still think that the concept was valid. I know there are lots of other factors taken into consideration when making predictions each week, but at the beginning of the season you look at the past history and free agents and coaching and everything else, and find one single thing that is the REAL difference maker. I saw a glaring category called QB turnovers. I couldn't predict injuries and nobody else can either but I knew that turnovers seems to be the biggest factor week in and week out. Regardless of whether we end up with 9 wins or 10 wind I am satisfied with my original outlook and MORE than satisfied with our Redskins this season.