Am i wrong to believe?

[MWAI]

Am I wrong to believe?

Every year about this time, millions of football fans project their team into the Superbowl. Every free agent acquisition, every draft pick, and just about every player on the team, is projected by the diehard fan(homers) to have a breakout season or make it to the Pro Bowl. Fans everywhere say, man that guy looks great...he's lost weight, he gained muscles, THIS TIME he is dedicated to being serious, his troubled life is a thing of the past, he's over his injury, etc, etc. We have all been there, we've all said those things, and they only apply to OUR team, because they are just excuses and fantasies when other fans say them. But when we say them, we state them as facts.

We as Redskins homers....uh....I mean fans...at this time of year, we project the Skins to make the playoffs or win 10 games or even end up in the Superbowl. Of course when we are confronted with the facts, like for instance, we finish last in the NFC every year, we have had 3 straight losing seasons, and only 2 winning seasons in 12 years, yes when we are confronted with those facts those just become minor details. The reality for us extreme fans is that everything is different this year. Remember, all those injuries have healed, everybody is about to have a breakout season or comeback season, and all our rookies were the steal of the draft.

Well, here we go again. It's a brand new training camp and here is why I am excited and why I believe. First of all, let's talk DEFENSE.

Our defense transposed their ranking over 2 seasons as they went from 31 to 13. This was a good defense on paper and in yardage ranking, but the key stat is looking at turnovers from the QB position. When breaking down teams defenses there is a direct relationship between the QB turnovers and some defensive stats. The San Fran 49ers QB Alex Smith turned the ball over 7 times last season and the 49ers gave up ZERO 30 point games. Meanwhile , the Philly Eagles had 27 turnovers from the QB positions, and gave up FIVE 30 point games. This, despite leading the league in sacks with 50. The G.B. Packers QB position accounted for SIX turnovers and their defense had 3 games in which they gave up 30 plus points. The Redskins on the other hand, had an amazing THIRTY turnovers from the QB position and still only had 4 games in which they surrendered 30 points or more. So we have a defense, which if not put in a bad position, can keep the other team out of the endzone frequently or hold the other team to field goals. This is good.

Now for the OFFENSE. Well, we just covered that. THIRTY turnovers is pretty bad and so was the offense. So if RG3 can be allowed 15 turnovers right off the bat, this team should be twice as good because the offense will be half as bad. Less turnovers means more rest for the defense, it means more scoring and it means more wins. I can't help it though, I believe that this young savior named Bob, will not only limit his turnovers but will in fact run and pass for quite a few more TD's than Rex and Beck produced last season.

If the Redskins had give up just 4 points less in 5 games last year, and score just 4 more, they would have ended up 10-6 and won the division. Does that seem impossible? Well if the offense holds the ball longer by not turning the ball over THIRTY times, then the defense will certainly give up less points. And if the offense has 15 more scoring opportunities as they drive down field without turning the ball over, then they should be able to score considerably more.

I haven't even talked about Santana losing 15 pounds and looking fast and quick, or Orakpo's new swim move, or the entire front 7 returning intact with Perry Riley playing a whole season. I also haven't mentioned what a difference Pierre Garcon can make or a healthy Chris Cooley or an UN-STONED and motivated Fred Davis or having a healthy and former ALL PRO strong safety in Merriweather in place of an injured Laron Landry. I could go on but the point is that most of that is just fluff when compared to THIRTY turnovers from the QB position. I believe that if Robert can eliminate just 15 turnovers from last season, then this Redskins team can win 10 games and make the playoffs. Am I wrong to believe?:helmet:

[FSUSkins24]

According to your post there doesn't seem to be a significant relationship between QB turnovers and 30 point games given up by the defense.

Every year we're a couple of points away in a few games from a 10,9, or 8 win season.

It's not wrong to believe that we'll perform this year. Just wrong for the reasons you stated.

[herrmag]

So if RG3 can be allowed 15 turnovers right off the bat, this team should be twice as good because the offense will be half as bad.

Sorry, have to laugh on that one.

I've had too many years of optimism. We've "won" too many offseasons. Until I see it on the field, I remain unconvinced.

[MWAI]

According to your post there doesn't seem to be a significant relationship between QB turnovers and 30 point games given up by the defense.

Every year we're a couple of points away in a few games from a 10,9, or 8 win season.

It's not wrong to believe that we'll perform this year. Just wrong for the reasons you stated.

Actually you are wrong. I don't know what you are looking at. The Redskins are not a COUPLE of points away from a 10 win season. We gave up 30 points 4 times and we were not 2 points away from winning those games. And as far as the stats I posted...if you choose to believe that interceptions and QB fumbles don't lead to the other team scoring more points and 30 point games, then you certainly have that right. Just click your heels and say it 3 times...."more turnovers don't lead to 30 points by the other team"....maybe that's the way it is in the land of Oz.

---------- Post added July-29th-2012 at 12:52 PM ----------

Sorry, have to laugh on that one.

I've had too many years of optimism. We've "won" too many offseasons. Until I see it on the field, I remain unconvinced.

I'm with ya brother. But I just can't help myself this year. I believe. Plus...I don't think anyone ever died from optimism, so let yourself go. LOL

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Your not wrong to believe man. Your a fan. It's what fans do. If you can't get excited about your team, just what can you get excited about?

Personally, when I look at just where we're at in our rebuild/ development; and just how tough the schedule looks in stretches, I can't see more than 5 or 6/ 7 wins tops. But with some great progress this year outside of W's leading to a real breakout year in 2013 and beyond.

But your most certainly not wrong 'to believe.' I love the optimism man. I've just tempered mine a little for this season.

Hail.

[Bang]

Nothing wrong with believing.

Temper it with realism and you'll be fine.

He IS a rookie, but he does look like a damn good one.

Anything is possible. One of the things I like is the biggest name we have, we drafted. The team is young and hungry and growing into itself.

The future looks good.

~Bang

[Burgold]

The moment you don't believe is the moment you should turn off the tv. Football is escapism. It's also being part of a group culture and giving yourself something to identify with, but mostly it's fun. If you find it torture and lose the ability to believe and be excited... find something better until you can recharge your batteries.

So yes, I believe... to paraphrase the Tailgate... I believe and I have faith.

[FSUSkins24]

Actually you are wrong. I don't know what you are looking at. The Redskins are not a COUPLE of points away from a 10 win season. We gave up 30 points 4 times and we were not 2 points away from winning those games. And as far as the stats I posted...if you choose to believe that interceptions and QB fumbles don't lead to the other team scoring more points and 30 point games, then you certainly have that right. Just click your heels and say it 3 times...."more turnovers don't lead to 30 points by the other team"....maybe that's the way it is in the land of Oz

Okay so instead of attempting to be condescending/clever with a wizard of oz reference, maybe next time you should back up your position a little better. As I am about to do for mine.

Show me the correlation between QB turnovers and the defense giving up 30 plus points (I'll list your examples in order to make it easy to see)

Skins 30 QB TOs - 4 games giving up 30

Eagles 27 QB TOs - 5 games giving up 30

49ers 7 QB TOs - 0 games giving up 30

Packers 6 QB TOs - 3 games giving up 30

Point out the significant correlation. Your point isn't bad until the Packers show up, and that kills it for you. You don't think it has to do with the fact that the 49ers defense was just far superior to the Redskins and Eagles? If the Packers defense was on par with the 49ers then you could've maybe pulled this off.

As for the being a few points away from being a 10,9, or 8 win team not meaning anything I'll just look to 2010...

Our record was 6-10, and a few points going our way could've swung that.

Week 2: Texans 30 - Skins 27

Week 6: Colts 27 - Skins 24

Week 14: Bucs 17 - Skins 16

Week 15: Cowboys 33 - Skins 30

Week 17: Giants 17 - Skins 14

That would put us at 11-5 had there been a 4 point swing as you stated. If you want to be REALLY generous you could add 5 point differences and we'd be 12-4.

However, the next year we came back and were 5-11...

So, I stand by what I originally said.

Edit: Do not misunderstand my point. I am not saying you shouldn't be believing. You should, the wins are coming. Your reasoning is just a little flawed from my perspective. It is also just my perspective though

[MWAI]

Nothing wrong with believing.

Anything is possible. The team is young and hungry and growing into itself.

The future looks good.

~Bang

Good for you Bang. Sounds like my optimism may have "gotcha".

[DieselPwr44]

If Andy Dalton, a stone cold rookie last season, can elevate the Bengals.....yes, the Cincinnati BENGALS...to the post season, then I don't know why we say it's impossible for RG3 to have the same kind of effect.

Could he struggle and we win 5 or 6 games? Sure.

Why is that scenario always a given?

This club has wandered the NFL wilderness for 20+ years. We've had two seasons of actually using the draft,tightening up our FA spending and getting this roster younger/faster. That's what everyone here has been clamoring for, right?

And now, we've made the investment in one of the best QB prospects in years and the guy has shown, so far, to learn quickly from his mistakes, says all the right things and seems sincere in his dedication to the team and his craft.

And here we all are, still sitting on the edge of the cliff like Wile E. Coyote, waiting for someone to saw the cliff off.

Can we not allow ourselves as a fanbase to have even a glimmer of hope?

[Jumbo]

Just click your heels and say it 3 times...."more turnovers don't lead to 30 points by the other team"....maybe that's the way it is in the land of Oz.

It will be later this week before I check the dupe acct stuff, but aside that, I already have the feeling you're not going to last long here---not a good sign for you. So I'd make sure you read the rules and keep yourself a bit more in check until you've been around awhile, shown yourself to be a solid poster, and have just learned this turf better (assuming I don't find you'r a dupe acct ot I forget to follow-up)

[MWAI]

Okay so instead of attempting to be condescending/clever with a wizard of oz reference, maybe next time you should back up your position a little better. As I am about to do for mine.

As for the being a few points away from being a 10,9, or 8 win team not meaning anything I'll just look to 2010...

Edit: Do not misunderstand my point. I am not saying you shouldn't be believing. You should, the wins are coming. Your reasoning is just a little flawed from my perspective. It is also just my perspective though

Well now you certainly have a right to your belief system. And you can post facts and figures all day from other seasons in order to make an attempt at having us understand your point. The problem is that you haven't made a point. You are attempting to find flaws with what I stated instead of making some solid points on your behalf. I stated a fact. I must be in the twilight zone or something because I have never heard anyone say that turning the ball over does not limit your opportunities for scoring and turning the ball over does not lead to the other team scoring quite often. Because it does. So you can cite 2010 as an example and if you like do some research on 1947 and 1963 as well. But....But...I was talking about 2011 and what happened last year because THAT team is what is coming back into 2012 plus a couple of additions. Cofield, Bowen, Merriweather, Kerrigan, Perry Riley...none of these guys were playing or starting for us in 2010 so I have absolutely no idea why you will try to rain on my optimism parade by coming up with some out of this world statistical base from other years when other players were on the team.

I have made my observations and optimistic prediction from what I consider a valid statistical base. Instead of try with all your might to try and disprove something unproveable, do something positive and prove your own point and make your own prediction. I said based on my stats and observations, I concluded that the Redskins can indeed keep themselves in more games and win 10 games this year. I gave all the reasons and none of it really had to do with emotion. So give us your prediction and leave my optimism alone. LOL

[FSUSkins24]

Well now you certainly have a right to your belief system. And you can post facts and figures all day from other seasons in order to make an attempt at having us understand your point. The problem is that you haven't made a point. You are attempting to find flaws with what I stated instead of making some solid points on your behalf. I stated a fact. I must be in the twilight zone or something because I have never heard anyone say that turning the ball over does not limit your opportunities for scoring and turning the ball over does not lead to the other team scoring quite often. Because it does. So you can cite 2010 as an example and if you like do some research on 1947 and 1963 as well. But....But...I was talking about 2011 and what happened last year because THAT team is what is coming back into 2012 plus a couple of additions. Cofield, Bowen, Merriweather, Kerrigan, Perry Riley...none of these guys were playing or starting for us in 2010 so I have absolutely no idea why you will try to rain on my optimism parade by coming up with some out of this world statistical base from other years when other players were on the team.

I have made my observations and optimistic prediction from what I consider a valid statistical base. Instead of try with all your might to try and disprove something unproveable, do something positive and prove your own point and make your own prediction. I said based on my stats and observations, I concluded that the Redskins can indeed keep themselves in more games and win 10 games this year. I gave all the reasons and none of it really had to do with emotion. So give us your prediction and leave my optimism alone. LOL

You're right, I should just leave your optimism alone. I won't rain on your parade, or try and point anything out to you. Your statistical evidence is clearly better than mine so in the future I won't bother putting my two cents in.

/sarcasm

You realize people come on this board to discuss things right? Not everyone will see things exactly the same as you (one of the things I enjoy about ES) I often find myself learning things I wouldn't otherwise know because of it. I also get to see the point of view of others.

My point, because you claim I never really had one, was stated in my original post.

You're right to believe, your reasoning is just flawed. I gave in my opinion some very good reasoning behind my opinion. You disagreed, and that is fine. Some people don't always see eye to eye. Not sure about this "trying with all my might" to disprove something that can't be proven stuff though. I'm just offering up a different perspective.

[BTBIRD 227]

Well now you certainly have a right to your belief system. And you can post facts and figures all day from other seasons in order to make an attempt at having us understand your point. The problem is that you haven't made a point. You are attempting to find flaws with what I stated instead of making some solid points on your behalf. I stated a fact. I must be in the twilight zone or something because I have never heard anyone say that turning the ball over does not limit your opportunities for scoring and turning the ball over does not lead to the other team scoring quite often. Because it does. So you can cite 2010 as an example and if you like do some research on 1947 and 1963 as well. But....But...I was talking about 2011 and what happened last year because THAT team is what is coming back into 2012 plus a couple of additions. Cofield, Bowen, Merriweather, Kerrigan, Perry Riley...none of these guys were playing or starting for us in 2010 so I have absolutely no idea why you will try to rain on my optimism parade by coming up with some out of this world statistical base from other years when other players were on the team.

I have made my observations and optimistic prediction from what I consider a valid statistical base. Instead of try with all your might to try and disprove something unproveable, do something positive and prove your own point and make your own prediction. I said based on my stats and observations, I concluded that the Redskins can indeed keep themselves in more games and win 10 games this year. I gave all the reasons and none of it really had to do with emotion. So give us your prediction and leave my optimism alone. LOL

Not to "Rain on your Optimism" or anything, but FSUSkins24 was offering some constructive criticism, so take this with a grain of salt. Take a pill and chill. Enjoy the season!!, Haii:logo:

[heels2skins]

its going to be a great year to be a Redskins fan. I don't believe RGIII will give the ball away as much as Rex did last year, but he is a rookie and there are going to be mistakes. I can only say the future looks bright and I gotta wear shades . you gotta have faith.

[tibbidoe]

Aside from RGIII's development as the season goes along, the only things I'm curious/worried about on the team are the OL and the safety play. Still big questions, but (to me) it seems like those are the only ones we really have at the moment. Of course, that may change along the way, but the same is true for every team with injuries, breakout seasons, etc.

We've seen other rookie QBs come in and do well fairly quickly, so it's not impossible that RGIII could continue that trend. There's no guarantee that it'll lead to wins right away, but there's a chance.

Plus, there's a team (or two) almost every year that comes out of nowhere and makes the playoffs. It's not like we see the exact same 12 teams make the playoffs from one year to the next. So, can we? Sure. Will we? That remains to be seen. (Possibility v Probability)

[HeluCopter29]

Well now you certainly have a right to your belief system. And you can post facts and figures all day from other seasons in order to make an attempt at having us understand your point. The problem is that you haven't made a point. You are attempting to find flaws with what I stated instead of making some solid points on your behalf. I stated a fact. I must be in the twilight zone or something because I have never heard anyone say that turning the ball over does not limit your opportunities for scoring and turning the ball over does not lead to the other team scoring quite often. Because it does. So you can cite 2010 as an example and if you like do some research on 1947 and 1963 as well. But....But...I was talking about 2011 and what happened last year because THAT team is what is coming back into 2012 plus a couple of additions. Cofield, Bowen, Merriweather, Kerrigan, Perry Riley...none of these guys were playing or starting for us in 2010 so I have absolutely no idea why you will try to rain on my optimism parade by coming up with some out of this world statistical base from other years when other players were on the team.

I have made my observations and optimistic prediction from what I consider a valid statistical base. Instead of try with all your might to try and disprove something unproveable, do something positive and prove your own point and make your own prediction. I said based on my stats and observations, I concluded that the Redskins can indeed keep themselves in more games and win 10 games this year. I gave all the reasons and none of it really had to do with emotion. So give us your prediction and leave my optimism alone. LOL

You made a post and he criticized it. That's what happens on a forum. If you're looking for a place where everyone will find some way to validate your opinion you might want to look elsewhere.

Welcome to ES!

[SWFLSkins]

It will be later this week before I check the dupe acct stuff, but aside that, I already have the feeling you're not going to last long here---not a good sign for you. So I'd make sure you read the rules and keep yourself a bit more in check until you've been around awhile, shown yourself to be a solid poster, and have just learned this turf better (assuming I don't find you'r a dupe acct ot I forget to follow-up)

Ole Red has a scent and somebody's drawers are about to drop.

No reason not to believe either in the team or Jumbo's abilities.

[MWAI]

You made a post and he criticized it. That's what happens on a forum. If you're looking for a place where everyone will find some way to validate your opinion you might want to look elsewhere.

Welcome to ES!

Actually I don't mind some criticism if I say something stupid. But everyone talks about you can't turn the ball over consistently and win games. You can't turn the ball over more than you get it and win games. We hear it all the time from coaches and players. We see it all the time for ourselves. Then when I point that out and draw a correlation between 30 point games being scored against a team with an inordinate amount of turnovers, the first response from somebody is terming it "WRONG".

Sorry but if he had said "in my opinion" then fine, but he was stating that it doesn't happen that way when in fact anybody with a brain can look at the stats, or watch NFL Sunday and see it for yourself. Turn the ball over twice 3 or 4 times in a game and yes, most likely you are gonna give up 30 points. And he says "WRONG". What kind of twilight zone logic is that. I just defended my position and then one of the mods has determined somehow that I have "duplicate" accounts because I disagreed with a disagree-er. Come on. I'm all grown up and can handle a little debate.

There are mods here who have favorite's here apparently and don't like anyone making them look silly. If that's the case perhaps I don't belong here. I can follow the Skins with my television, cable, and ESPN without a problem I can go to the games. But some of those Skins fans and mods just need to take a chill pill and realize that not everybody falls in line with the status quo.

Just because ESPN and every expert predicts the Skins will fall nicely into last place, I don't because Rex Grossman is not the QB anymore and for the other reasons I stated. If you don't believe that, fine...don't look for me to argue and tell you that you are wrong. But when we state facts, that word should not be used. That pretty much was the whole point.

I guess I'll just go on believing and wait here for the season to start and when it does, watch and see how multiple turnovers turn into 30 point games and no turnovers tend to be low scores against the Redskins defense.

[PerryMason]

If Andy Dalton, a stone cold rookie last season, can elevate the Bengals.....yes, the Cincinnati BENGALS...to the post season, then I don't know why we say it's impossible for RG3 to have the same kind of effect.

While I agree with you, in all fairness Dalton doesn't play in the NFC East. That's gunna make it tougher for RG3.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Looking at some of the tone of the OP's responses as this thread has developed, particularly parts of the last one, the philosophical words of the mom of Mr. F Gump Esq springs to mind:

'Stupid is as stupid does.'

Hail.

[Tsoe]

There are mods here who have favorite's here apparently and don't like anyone making them look silly. If that's the case perhaps I don't belong here. I can follow the Skins with my television, cable, and ESPN without a problem I can go to the games. But some of those Skins fans and mods just need to take a chill pill and realize that not everybody falls in line with the status quo.

.

Its ok man. Not everyone gets along with the Mods 100%( they are people with opinions too, believe it or not ) or sips the ES flavor of the month. I for one agree with your post, but still share a bit of pessimism until the team starts winning.

[MR2Drift]

While I agree with you, in all fairness Dalton doesn't play in the NFC East. That's gunna make it tougher for RG3.

Bengals do play the Ravens and Steelers so the division is not the NFC West horrible by any means. Redskins and Bengals both went 2-4 in the division also which means its not necessary to have a winning record in your division to be a playoff contender. I think we were in the same position last time we made it to the playoffs IIRC, 3rd place in division and still made it in 2007.

[Tsoe]

Bengals do play the Ravens and Steelers so the division is not the NFC West horrible by any means. Redskins and Bengals both went 2-4 in the division also which means its not necessary to have a winning record in your division to be a playoff contender. I think we were in the same position last time we made it to the playoffs IIRC, 3rd place in division and still made it in 2007.

Very true, I'm pretty sick of just scraping by though. Can't we just have the division in the bag by week 14?

[HeluCopter29]

Actually I don't mind some criticism if I say something stupid. But everyone talks about you can't turn the ball over consistently and win games. You can't turn the ball over more than you get it and win games. We hear it all the time from coaches and players. We see it all the time for ourselves. Then when I point that out and draw a correlation between 30 point games being scored against a team with an inordinate amount of turnovers, the first response from somebody is terming it "WRONG".

Sorry but if he had said "in my opinion" then fine, but he was stating that it doesn't happen that way when in fact anybody with a brain can look at the stats, or watch NFL Sunday and see it for yourself. Turn the ball over twice 3 or 4 times in a game and yes, most likely you are gonna give up 30 points. And he says "WRONG". What kind of twilight zone logic is that. I just defended my position and then one of the mods has determined somehow that I have "duplicate" accounts because I disagreed with a disagree-er. Come on. I'm all grown up and can handle a little debate.

There are mods here who have favorite's here apparently and don't like anyone making them look silly. If that's the case perhaps I don't belong here. I can follow the Skins with my television, cable, and ESPN without a problem I can go to the games. But some of those Skins fans and mods just need to take a chill pill and realize that not everybody falls in line with the status quo.

Just because ESPN and every expert predicts the Skins will fall nicely into last place, I don't because Rex Grossman is not the QB anymore and for the other reasons I stated. If you don't believe that, fine...don't look for me to argue and tell you that you are wrong. But when we state facts, that word should not be used. That pretty much was the whole point.

I guess I'll just go on believing and wait here for the season to start and when it does, watch and see how multiple turnovers turn into 30 point games and no turnovers tend to be low scores against the Redskins defense.

I don't think anyone's disagreeing with you that Rex Grossman hurt us big time last year being the turnover machine that he is or any of the other very obvious stats that you showed. But stats can be deceiving, THT averaged 3.8 YPC last year for example.

And because of these "deceptions" FSUSkins24 disagreed with you. And yeah, he was a little harsh with his comments but you didn't do yourself a whole a lot of favors with your response. If you're looking for a place where everyone agrees with you, then I wish you the best of luck on what's going to be an endless voyage.

That being said, I actually agree with you on what you said about turnovers and their correlation to points given up by the defense. But be mindful that you're now on the internet and you're going to get responses that aren't only unfavorable, but rude.