CNN: Report: N. Korea fires on S. Korea, injuring at least 16

[Mickalino]

Here is what I know about his son... He got detained at the Japanese airport with his wife and child trying to sneak into Disney World.... The Japanese got suspicious of his documents and detained him... He said.. "dudes, I'm the sone of Kim Jong-il". Japan which had no diplomatic contacts with N. Korea asked china to confirm his identiy. China said it wasn't him. Then came back a day latter and said, um... you bertter let him go..

Japan deported him to China.

As idiotic as that was, I'm thinking a guy who trys to sneak into disney world is more in touch than the current leader is there. (1) He knows about Disney World. (2) He wanted to take his son there..

I think that's a guy we might be able to do business with.

Yet, you admit that his Dad is extremely familiar with Elvis - yet he is the furthest thing from being negotiable and sane.

[JMS]

Yet, you admit that his Dad is extremely familiar with Elvis - yet he is the furthest thing from being negotiable and sane.

No, I admit that his father copied Elvis's hair from the 1950's.... along with old ladies sun glasses Elvis wouldn't be caught dead in... Even now when he's dead.

Kim Jong Il is stuck in the 1950's. That's not current....

[Mickalino]

Kim Jong Nam, 29, is the eldest known son of Mr Kim and is regarded as the designated heir to the world's last remaining Stalinist dictatorship. Japan's Kyodo news agency reported that he told police: "I wanted to go to Disneyland."

.

His son, is 27, not 29. So maybe it really wasn't his son.

[JMS]

His son, is 27, not 29. So maybe it really wasn't his son.

Naw, it was him. The Chinese government confirmed it... I think Japan should have let the guy go to Disney World, and should have paid for it too.... What's he going to do steal

a hat?

Send him to disney, give him a free lifetime subscription to half a dozen news magazines and papers.. Tell him to come back soon and he can go to Universal and six flags too.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

His son, is 27, not 29. So maybe it really wasn't his son.

He has more than one son.

[Mickalino]

He has more than one son.

What I meant was, maybe it wasn't the son that is to be heir, since that's who we were discussing.

[Hubbs]

What is the South's advantage? I don't really see one for them. The longer they wait, the more they suffer unprovoked attacks. The South already appears afraid to retaliate (despite verbal claims) and the rest of the world hasn't done anything yet either. NK pushes a little more every time. It's the cliche "damned if you do..."

That has to do with will, not ability. Mick (I think it was Mick) said that the longer this goes on, the more NK will build up. Well, South Korea doesn't just twiddle its thumbs while North Korea builds up. They build up, too. And they build up better. The fact that they don't have the will to use their weapons is another matter entirely.

Many in the South disagree

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/TOE6AN06M.htm

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's government was criticised at home on Wednesday for its slow response to a North Korean attack, with lawmakers and media saying it was now time to get tough.

Lee has vowed a firm response to Tuesday's attack by North Korea, but Seoul too has no desire for a serious conflict. While North Korea would certainly lose any war, it would be able to do enormous damage to the South with its vast artillery.

Lee won office in 2008 vowing to take an uncompromising stand with neighouring North Korea, but for the second time this year his conservative government is being criticised for being indecisive in responding to crises involving the mercurial state.

In March, Lee's government was criticised for responding too slowly to the sinking of a South Korean warship in the same area. Forty-six sailors were killed in the attack the South blamed on the North. Pyongyang said it wasn't to blame.

A day after the North fired a barrage of artillery shells at the island of Yeonpyeong, killing two civilians and soldiers, members of Lee's own party and opposition lawmakers accused the South's military of being too weak and responding too late.

In a fiery parliamentary hearing, Defence Minister Kim Tae-young was grilled by lawmakers who said the government should have taken quicker and stronger retaliatory measures against the North's provocation.

"I am sorry that the government has not carried out ruthless bombing through jet fighters during the North's second round of shelling," Kim Jang-soo, a lawmaker of the ruling Grand National Party and a former defence minister, was quoted as saying by Yonhap news agency during the national defence committee.

"Why did we shoot only 80 shells even as the North fired 170?" asked Sim Dae-pyung, chairman of the minor opposition People First Party.

Again, that's will, not ability. Your article says nothing about ability.

How so ?

Technology, training, logistics, intelligence, and the economic strength to support further military improvements. The gap between SK and NK grows in all four areas - even training, NK's is obviously ruthless and effective but SK has access to most of the new training tools we develop - with every passing day.

[Larry]

Here is what I know about his son... He got detained at the Japanese airport with his wife and child trying to sneak into Disney World.... The Japanese got suspicious of his documents and detained him... He said.. "dudes, I'm the sone of Kim Jong-il". Japan which had no diplomatic contacts with N. Korea asked china to confirm his identiy. China said it wasn't him. Then came back a day latter and said, um... you bertter let him go..

Japan deported him to China.

As idiotic as that was, I'm thinking a guy who trys to sneak into disney world is more in touch than the current leader is there. (1) He knows about Disney World. (2) He wanted to take his son there..

I think that's a guy we might be able to do business with.

Kim Jong Il, Jr, you've just been named Emperor of North Korea! Now what are you going to do?

[twa]

Ability to what Hubbs?....retaliate?

easily...,go toe to toe w/o us?.... probably not.

JMS how do ya like his pool and waterslide?

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/elite1.JPG

[Thiebear]

I believe the Gulags will bear out both their minds more than the tv. characters they like or the vacations they want.

[mistertim]

Couldn't we do a massive Shock and Awe and simultaneously bomb all of their missile launchers with hundreds of fighter planes before they have a chance to shell Seoul ?

Are you talking about bombing their artillery or the potential nuclear launching systems all at once? Neither will work or do much good, probably. Taking out all of the artillery is, for lack of a better word, impossible with any type of conventional forces. You would first have to get aircraft carriers in range and then start sending bombers and cruise missiles. NK would see all of this coming and likely say "**** it" and just start hammering away. Even if our bombers and cruise missiles eventually managed to take out a good amount of their artillery, the damage would already have been done. Seoul would be a graveyard by that time.

The only other option would likely be nuclear SLBMs aimed at the areas where the artillery is...but do we really want to open up that can of worms? First you would have the USA initiating a pretty large scale first strike nuclear attack which would have huge global tactical and political implications. Then you would have the fact that NK would still likely have nuclear capable missiles of their own up their sleeves and would then not hesitate at all to fire them at SK and turn it into a radioactive wasteland (and maybe see if one or two of their longer range ones could reach the West Coast of the US). Third, even if, for some reason, NK didn't let loose with their nukes, you would still have a radioactive cloud hovering right around the border of the two countries which could, depending on the wind and other weather, easily slide right over to SK or other close by countries..

As far as taking out all of their nuclear launching mechanisms, we might know where some or even most of them are, but not all. So lets say we miss some. Then they decide to use the remaining ones on SK. Again, radioactive wasteland that used to be Seoul. Or lets say we managed to get very lucky and took out all of their nuclear capabilities. Well, while we were doing that (it would take up quite a bit of resources to be sure we got them) NK would be raining hell down on Seoul with their artillery. This situation is really iffy and, despite what some here would like, is going to require some delicate work to get through. Just going in guns blazing (even if they are extremely high tech guns) is likely only going to tip things from "semi-unstable" to "****, its all out war now" very fast.

[Hubbs]

Ability to what Hubbs?....retaliate?

easily...,go toe to toe w/o us?.... probably not.

JMS how do ya like his pool and waterslide?

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/nk-uploads/elite1.JPG

Please. The south could defeat the north without America even knowing a war was going on. We're there to make it end sooner and with fewer casualties. Can you name the types of tanks NK has? Types of fighters? Types of SAMs? Can you tell me how other copies of their equipment bought by other Soviet allies have fared in recent wars?

People always want to look at the size of the active militaries and say, "My goodness! However could the south win without our help?" That's not how it works.

"Ability" meant ability to fight a war and win.

[twa]

But would they be allowed to use that superior technology before being a smoking hole?

Offense is much different

[skinfan133]

But would they be allowed to use that superior technology before being a smoking hole?

Offense is much different

South Korea's force multipliers across the board give them a 10 to 1 advantage on North Korea on a bad day at the very least. My guess would be that South Korea has 15 to 1 force multiplication on the North.

for a comparison, at this time in Iraq and The 'Stan the U.S. Army will never green-light a mission without 3-1 combat superiority through force multiplication.

[Predicto]

But would they be allowed to use that superior technology before being a smoking hole?

Offense is much different

Yes, they could use that technology and they would defeat the North. But before that happened, hundreds of thousands or even millions of civilians in Seoul would be dead.

It is amazing to me how many people seem to think that when North Korea provokes South Korea by shelling South Koreans, the appropriate AMERICAN response is to escalate the dispute and endanger the lives of millions of SOUTH KOREANS. If a full scale shooting war breaks out, the US will be there alongside the South Koreans and the North Koreans will be wiped up. But we damn sure better take into account the welfare of those South Koreans that we are protecting before we escalate this thing. Remember- "It became necessary to destroy the village in order to save it?"

[Larry]

Actually, I like the pundit who pointed out that, if we went into Iraq, the antique shop rule applies: If you break it, you own it.

If a war over there destroys, say, 20% of SK's GDP, and 5% of Japans, but we "own" NK, then did we win?

[twa]

How effective are SK(edited for a Palin:silly:) force multipliers against hardened targets and prepositioned artillery/missiles?

I respect SK forces capabilities,but I wouldn't put money on them winning by themselves,not to mention the real costs of a victory to the civilian pop and infrastructure

added

When a hawk such as myself preaches restraint it ain't no walk in the park.

agreeing with Predicto does make me question my reasoning though

[Predicto]

How effective are SK(edited for a Palin:silly:) force multipliers against hardened targets and prepositioned artillery/missiles?

I respect SK forces capabilities,but I wouldn't put money on them winning by themselves,not to mention the real costs of a victory to the civilian pop and infrastructure

Oh, they are useful. Eventually, air superiority will win out, and those immovable artillery positions will become rubble. But not before Seoul is ablaze.

added

When a hawk such as myself preaches restraint it ain't no walk in the park.

agreeing with Predicto does make me question my reasoning though

How do you think I feel? You've only been correct three times since you came on to this board, and two of those times involved barbeque sauce recipes.

[visionary]

Can you name the types of tanks NK has? Types of fighters? Types of SAMs? Can you tell me how other copies of their equipment bought by other Soviet allies have fared in recent wars? .

This seems like an interesting article on the subject (I think it's pretty recent too)

Although I haven't had time to do more than skim it myself.

North Korea's military aging but sizeable

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/24/north.korea.capability/index.html?hpt=T2

It's a bit like train-spotting but rather more serious. On October 10, Korea-watchers pored over live televised coverage of a massive military parade in Pyongyang, held to mark the 65th anniversary of North Korea's ruling party. Just like the Soviet parades of yore, it was a chance to see what military hardware the North might be showing off.

The official news agency said the parade showed "the will and might of Songun Korea to wipe out the enemy." The hardware was accompanied by slogans such as "Defeat the U.S. Military. U.S. soldiers are the Korean People's Army's enemy." And besides the incredible synchronized goose-stepping, there were tanks and new missiles.

Analysts paid special attention to the first public appearance of a road-mobile ballistic missile with a projected range of between 3,000 and 4,000 kilometers (roughly 1,900 to 2,400 miles), though reports of its existence had circulated for several years. There was also a new version of the No-dong ballistic missile, with a tri-conic nosecone, on show. That led Aviation Weekly and others to observe design similarities to Iran's Shahab missiles, suggesting further military cooperation between the two governments....

[Renegade7]

I hear a lot of people saying "this ain't our war", but we have troops right on the border that will be on of the first thing attacked if war goes full blown again. SK probably can do it by themselves, but if SK says war, we might as well step in to make sure it goes right, given how many of our troops we have there like sitting ducks.

[Passepartout]

Kim Jong is way, way, beyond dangerous. As long as he's in power thre!

[visionary]

Uh oh....

N. Korea warns of new attacks; S. Korea to boost rules of engagement

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/25/koreas.crisis/index.html?hpt=T2

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- North Korea will launch additional attacks on South Korea if it continues "reckless military provocation," the North's state media said Thursday.

Pyongyang "will deal without hesitation the second and third strong physical retaliatory blow" if provoked, its KCNA news agency said.

As an example of provocation, it indirectly referred to a military drill that South Korea and the United States plan to hold in the Yellow Sea starting Sunday.

Meanwhile, South Korea said Thursday that it will strengthen and supplement its rules of engagement in the Yellow Sea, following North Korea's shelling of the South's Yeonpyeong Island on Tuesday.

[Sikbug]

If any American soldiers are harmed, **** will get real, real fast. I was going to go over there in a month, I think I'm going to hit up China instead.

[Larry]

I like the assumption that things can never change unless everyone starts shooting at each other.

After all, that's how we finally took down the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe, right? The democracies taking over virtually all of Latin American could not have happened without lobbing in some American ordinance. Things would never have changed in apartheid South Africa if we hadn't sent in the troops.

As we showed in Iraq, the best, safest, least expensive, and least controversial way to get regime change is an American invasion.

Wanted to bump this post, because I thought it was so well reasoned, and supported, that it's been stuck in my head ever since I read it.

(And because, near as I can tell, it hasn't been responded to, once.)

[visionary]

Wanted to bump this post, because I thought it was so well reasoned, and supported, that it's been stuck in my head ever since I read it.

(And because, near as I can tell, it hasn't been responded to, once.)

I'm not advocating for a war here, but so far things have been done the other way for around 60 years and North Korea doesn't seem to have gotten a whole lot better.

So while not doing anything militarily with them may...may be the safest route...there's no guarantee it will do much to change them either.

People could be having the same discussion decades from now.

(which I suppose would be good news in that nothing majorly bad happened this time)

On the other hand who knows how many generations of North Koreans have had to live lives of pure horror and misery and how many will continue to over the years while we sit around and debate this.

Again this isn't to say that we should go in there missiles blazing.

I just think it's a lot more complicated than just assuming that things will work out for the best if we leave things alone.

I will agree that it seems as if a non-military solution is the best option right now.

Will this option open up North Korea like Russia and Eastern Europe are now, anytime soon?

I doubt it and I don't know if North Korea will be any better off for a long time.

(This is all assuming they don't do something crazy this weekend, as they're threatening to right now. In which case, who knows what happens.)