CNN: Report: N. Korea fires on S. Korea, injuring at least 16

[ardowling]

He can't, he lives for it. China imho is the one to blame here, they pull all the strings in NK and could cut them off in a heartbeat. The problem is with moments such as this and the sinking of the patrol boat earlier in the year is that NK goes by the beg for forgiveness rather than ask for permission principle and until China cracks down on them the **** with just continue to escalate and it won't stop just because Jung Il dies his son is taking over and at age 27? I doubt he's going anywhere soon without help. (China).

[DarrellsMyHero28]

This made me laugh

[JMS]

there are some myopic people in this thread..

I'm your huckleberry..

What was Bush Sr going to do.

He basically ratched up the confrontation. Left office pretty shortly after North Korea anounced their intention to develop a bomb.

I think Bush Sr was a pretty good president. Exceptionally good one term president. I don't give him bad marks for N. Korea.

What was Clinton going to do.

Clinton did fairly good. He negotiated an agreement which put north korea back into a box for 8 years. 1994-2002.

What was Bush2 going to do.

I think any review of the facts leads one to believe Bush really screwed the pooch in North Korea. He screwed the pooch and then ignored the problem until it had become a full blown active crisis. It's impossible to justify his handling of this crisis.

What was President Obama going to do.

Looks like the game plan is shapping up. China had no knowledge of this attack on south korea. It seems they are as shocked by it as anybody else. Obama's game plan is thus to engage China in another stronger line of embargo's against North Korea. and come out with joint statements and joint approaches to chastize them. North Korea hurt themselves in this attack, and Obama's going to exploit that growing rift between N. Korea and their greatest ally the Chinese.

The work of the 6 countries was the closest thing to real and it wasn't.

It was the exact same deal the three allies ( S Korea, Japan, and the United States agreed to in 1994 ) with North Korea. Aid, oil, and light water nuclear reactors in exchange for inspections and freaze on future development.

China is one of the Security Council Heavy Weights?

All the security council permanent members are heavy weights.

China has the Largest Military

North Korea has the second largest army in the world behind Russia. China has the 6th largest and has been shrinking their army consistantly since 1990 when they were the largest. The United States has the 8th largest army in the world today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_troops

When Iraq invaded Kuwait America had the third largest army in the world behind #1 China and #2 Russia. Iraq was #4. In operation desert storm the United States took about 140,000 guys or 10% of our military and smack around Iraq's vaunted million man army like a red headed step child. China took note and has ever since been shrinking their military in favor of a more modern force built on the US model.

China is in that area and prop the N Koreans up.

It seems not. China is saying they are as shocked as we are by North Korea's behavior. They are joining with us in issuing condemnation of this unprovoked attack on South Korea.

Where is the United Nations on forcing this again?

Looks like we are going to get a new round of tougher sanctions on N. Korea. Looks like N. Korea finally stepped across a line which China didn't want crossed.

[section 130]

St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday. Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90859/7208907.html

Ummmmm, this can't be good.....

[nonniey]

I'm your huckleberry..

Clinton did fairly good. He negotiated an agreement which put north korea back into a box for 8 years. 1994-2002.

I think any review of the facts leads one to believe Bush really screwed the pooch in North Korea. He screwed the pooch and then ignored the problem until it had become a full blown active crisis. It's impossible to justify his handling of this crisis.

.

Well a review of the facts is something you certainly have not done despite several posts in this thread indicating you should in fact review them.

From the CRS Issue Brief to Congress.

http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/crs/IB91141.pdf

"The Bush Administration disclosed on October 16, 2002, that North Korea had revealed

to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly in Pyongyang that it was conducting a secret

nuclear weapons program based on the process of uranium enrichment. North Korea

admitted the program in response to U.S. evidence presented by Kelly. The program is

based on the process of uranium enrichment, in contrast to North Korea’s pre-1995 nuclear

program based on plutonium reprocessing. North Korea began a secret uranium enrichment

program after 1995 reportedly with the assistance of Pakistan. North Korea provided

Pakistan with intermediate range ballistic missiles in the late 1990s. The Central Intelligence

Agency issued a statement in December 2002 that North Korea likely could produce two or

more atomic bombs annually through uranium enrichment after 2004.

In admitting to the secret program, Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju (an important

figure in the North Korean regime) declared to Kelly that North Korea also possesses “more

powerful” weapons. North Korea proposed a new U.S.-North Korean negotiation of a

bilateral non-aggression pact and an agreement for the United States to cease “stifling” North

Korea’s economy. The North Korean proposal, which Pyongyang reiterated at the Beijing

talks in April 2003, asserts that these agreements would open the way for resolving the

IB91141 08-27-03

CRS-2

nuclear issue. Some U.S. experts, however, believe that the non-aggression pact proposal

is a “smokescreen” for North Korea’s long-standing proposal (since 1974) of a U.S.-North

Korean bilateral peace treaty. As stated, both proposed pacts would replace the 1953 Korean

armistice, and neither would include South Korea as a participant. North Korea has long

stated that a negotiation of a bilateral peace treaty would include provisions for the

withdrawal of U.S. military forces from South Korea. The United States and South Korea

have rejected consistently the bilateral peace agreement proposal. Some experts also believe

that North Korea’s demand for the cessation of U.S. “stifling” of its economy is a subterfuge

for Pyongyang’s demand since 1999 that the United States remove North Korea from the

U.S. list of terrorist countries, thus, in effect, making North Korea eligible for financial

assistance from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Asian

Development Bank.

By their own admission, Bush Administration officials were surprised by the intensity

of North Korea’s moves in late December 2002 to re-start nuclear facilities at Yongbyon and

expel officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency placed there under the U.S.-North

Korean Agreed Framework of 1994 to monitor the shutdown. North Korea announced that

it would re-start the small, five megawatt nuclear reactor shut down under the Agreed

Framework and resume construction of two larger reactors that was frozen under the

agreement. The reactor began operating in February 2003.............."

Click Link for the rest of the brief.

[Switchgear]

October 9, 2006

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test

So where did 25 May 2009 come from? That was the date you initially listed as the first North Korean nuke test.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

He can't, he lives for it. China imho is the one to blame here, they pull all the strings in NK and could cut them off in a heartbeat. The problem is with moments such as this and the sinking of the patrol boat earlier in the year is that NK goes by the beg for forgiveness rather than ask for permission principle and until China cracks down on them the **** with just continue to escalate and it won't stop just because Jung Il dies his son is taking over and at age 27? I doubt he's going anywhere soon without help. (China).

North Korea really isn't controlled by China. China has repeatedly tried to push North Korea into accepting more free market elements into their economy and NK has told them to **** off, that they are on the true path to socialism and that China sold out. But you are right, China could do a whole hell of a lot more to help reel them in. I think going forward, you're going to see them exert more pressure on them. If China wants to really step up a global economic power, they don't really have any other choice imo.

JMS, I was thinking about your Guns of August comparison. I think the one big thing that lead to WWI was a complete lack of understanding and underestimation of what warfare in a new age would entail. They thought it would be a quick and limited war. Germany had defeated France and laid siege to Paris in just 7 weeks, 50 year prior to WWI. I think they thought it would be similar to that. And I think for a lot of the leaders, it was nothing more than a game. A political/power/territory grab. They didn't grasp the gravity of the situation.

On the other hand, there can be no illusions by the North Koreans on what firing on Seoul would mean. The consequences of it. Thus I don't think the situation is comparable to the whole Guns of August.

(I'm fascinated by WWI btw. I think it gets overshadowed by WWII but is just as fascinating. WWII was really just chapter 2 of WWI. And I'll never get over how monumentally stupid it all was and the miscalculations of EVERYONE involved.)

[nonniey]

So where did 25 May 2009 come from? That was the date you initially listed as the first North Korean nuke test.

He was error that was their 2d test (First was in 2006).

[Mickalino]

We're wanting to put missile defense in Europe, so could we supply Seoul with missile defense against an NK attack, and possibly enable strikes within NK without fear of the destruction of SK ?

[Destino]

We're wanting to put missile defense in Europe, so could we supply Seoul with missile defense against an NK attack, and possibly enable strikes within NK without fear of the destruction of SK ?

SK isn't under threat simply because of a nuclear bomb. They have major population centers within conventional weapons range if memory serves me. After all they were under threat prior to NK gaining a nuclear bomb. No matter what you set up SK is going to sustain heavy losses if NK decides to unleash hell.

The danger right now is that this is the second attack on SK that really saw now reprisal of great significance. They sank a ship and now they shelled an island. These aren't war game and warning shots. These are two direct attacks on SK's armed forces.

It's an act of war.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

Yup. NK has thousands and thousands of pieces of conventional artillery aimed at Seoul.

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-the-day-how-north-korea-could-destroy-seoul-in-two-hours-2010-5

[DarrellsMyHero28]

I feel like this situation isn't getting enough attention.

[visionary]

It seems not. China is saying they are as shocked as we are by North Korea's behavior. They are joining with us in issuing condemnation of this unprovoked attack on South Korea.

Looks like we are going to get a new round of tougher sanctions on N. Korea. Looks like N. Korea finally stepped across a line which China didn't want crossed.

Hopefully something good will come of this.

I'll wait until I see the results to trust everyone to follow through fully though.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

Lol, wrong thread.

[visionary]

Yup. NK has thousands and thousands of pieces of conventional artillery aimed at Seoul.

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-the-day-how-north-korea-could-destroy-seoul-in-two-hours-2010-5

It's too bad there's no way to neutralize the artillery before they can take Seoul apart.

I can't help but worry that the next time (or some time after that) when NK makes a provocative attack, it might be infinitely worse than what we've seen so far.

[Vilandil Tasardur]

This is one of the toughest things ever. You can't ignore an act of war, but you can't retaliate knowing that you're long time ally won't survive. Imagine if Canada had nukes aimed at us, England pisses them off, and Canada says "**** it, we can't reach the English, so lets nuke D.C."

It's not really our place or our right to mobilize against the North at the expense of the South. Now, if the South asks for us to attack, and are willing to risk Seoul being shelled, that's different. But we can't just "decide" that we'll sacrifice the city of Seoul because we, who aren't really affected, have had enough to Pyongyang.

[Hubbs]

But that's true for any sub.

Of course. Which is why we could take out all of their out-of-port subs if we wanted to. Whose active sonar do you think is superior? Whose torpedoes? Whose noisemaker decoys? Whose subs cavitate more often? Who has the ability to paint the Korean coastline with airdropped sonar buoys and then relay targeting information to submerged subs towing VLF arrays? Who can detect enemy subs from space if they're not hiding under thermoclines?

Would they detect our subs? At some point, of course they would. Most often that point would be when one of our guys fires several torpedoes at our latest target. If we want to take out the NK sub fleet, trust me, we'll take out the NK sub fleet.

SK isn't under threat simply because of a nuclear bomb. They have major population centers within conventional weapons range if memory serves me. After all they were under threat prior to NK gaining a nuclear bomb. No matter what you set up SK is going to sustain heavy losses if NK decides to unleash hell.

The danger right now is that this is the second attack on SK that really saw now reprisal of great significance. They sank a ship and now they shelled an island. These aren't war game and warning shots. These are two direct attacks on SK's armed forces.

It's an act of war.

This is beyond correct. If the North Koreans were to launch an all-out invasion tomorrow, I'm pretty confident that they would overtake Seoul without a single nuke going off before eventually being repelled and losing the war. North Korea doesn't need nukes to kill millions of people in the South.

[JMS]

So where did 25 May 2009 come from? That was the date you initially listed as the first North Korean nuke test.

It was a later test..

North Korea tests nuclear weapon 'as powerful as Hiroshima bomb'

Country risks further international isolation as underground nuclear explosion triggers earthquake

Monday 25 May 2009

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/25/north-korea-hiroshima-nuclear-test

[JMS]

Well a review of the facts is something you certainly have not done despite several posts in this thread indicating you should in fact review them.

.

Aren't you the guy that said North Korea got the bomb in 2002 while the IAEA was still on the ground there?

So what specifically do you think I got wrong? I guess that's too much to ask?

• Did Bush say he was discontinueing Clinton Era talks with N. Korea in 2001?
  
• Did Bush label North Korea part of the Axis of evil May 6, 2002
  
• Did Bush call the leader of North Korea Evil in 2002?
  
• Did Bush say he had the right to pre-emptively invade evil countries after Sept 11 2001?
  
• Did Bush refuse to give security guarantees to North Korea in early 2002?
  
• Did Bush administration say they would not build North Korea the agreed upon light water reactors due to be delivered in 2003 essentially unilaterally breaking the 1994 Clinton peace agreement. ( we were continuing oil and aid called for under the Clinton plan though )...
  

Did all of this occur before North Korea told the State Dept representative James Kelly that they had reopenned their nuclear processing plant and deported the international nuclear inspectors in Oct 2002? and before North Korea pulled out of the nuclear non proliferation treaty in 2003?

Then after Oct 2002 did Bush / Cheney boycott and actively sabatoge Chinese and European talks with North Korea on trying to stop their enrichment?

• Did Cheney say "we don't negotiate with evil, we defeat it". undermining a chinese initiative in 2003?

  
  Cheney's tough talking derails negotiations with North Korea
  http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/12/21/1071941611806.html
  

• Did Bush / Cheney say our only policy in North Korea was regime change, giving N. Korea no where to go?
  
• Did Bush Cheney refuse to even negotiate/talk with North Korea for 4 years while they progressed towards there bomb?
  

Or do you think I'm wrong that the deal Bush negotiated with North Korea in 2007 was nearly identical to the one Bill Clinton negotiated in 1994, which Bush destroyed both by his over the top rhetoric and by not living up to the terms of the deal? Only in 2007 under Bush's deal North Korea had the bomb; something which was not the case in 1994 or even 2001 when Bush began his reckless actions.

Bush Channels Bill

The new North Korea deal is surprisingly Clintonian.

Feb. 13, 2007

http://www.slate.com/id/2159736/

Here is a pretty good timeline..

In March 2001, just weeks after his inauguration, Bush was asked by reporters why the U.S. wasn't continuing Clinton's negotiations with Pyongyang. "We're not certain as to whether or not they're keeping all terms of all agreements," he replied, in what Time Magazine's Tony Karon called "a potentially catastrophic gaffe." According to Karon, "as U.S. officials hurried to emphasize immediately after Bush's statement, Washington has no evidence that North Korea is not complying with the terms of that agreement. Given the epic paranoia and unpredictability of the regime in Pyongyang, the last thing you want to do is accuse them of cheating - unless you're consciously setting out to take it to the next level."

But surely that was the point---to take it to the next level! (Why is the Eagles' "Take It to the Limit"---with its lyrics about dreaming, being shown signs, and burning out---echoing in my head as I write?)

While South Korean President Kim Dae-jung sought to pursue "sunshine diplomacy" with the north, which had resulted in the summit between him and Kim Jung-il in Pyongyang in June 2000, neocon ideologues gathered around Vice President Dick Cheney were actively sabotaging any diplomatic efforts. In 2002 the U.S. ceased the fuel oil shipments specified in the Agreed Framework, thereby unilaterally abrogating the Clinton-era pact (along with so many other international agreements deemed wimpy by these cowboys).

In January 2002, President Bush told an America shell-shocked by 9-11 that North Korea was part of an "axis of evil," deliberately tarring it with the same brush as al-Qaeda. Pyongyang was obviously in Washington's crosshairs, much to the dismay of Kim Dae-jung and South Korea's sunshine diplomacy advocates. As the U.S. attack on Iraq (based on lies about weapons of mass destruction) loomed in January 2003, the DPRK with little to lose announced its withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Agreement.

Undersecretary of State for Arms Control John Bolton pursued the "axis of evil" attack theme, describing life in the DPRK as a "hellish nightmare" and Kim Jong-Il as "tyrannical" in July 2003. Pyongyang responded in kind, calling the present U.S. UN ambassador "human scum" and a "bloodsucker." Late that year, China proposed a plan for North Korea to dismantle its nuclear programs in return for security guarantees and economic aid. But Cheney, according to an official quoted by Knight-Ridder newspapers, insisted on impossible revisions in an effort to sabotage that plan. "I have been charged by the President with making sure that none of the tyrannies in the world are negotiated with," Cheney growled. "We don't negotiate with evil; we defeat it."

The Chinese and South Koreans have appealed to the U.S. to cool the rhetoric and to engage in the bilateral talks with North Korea that the latter has repeatedly demanded. Mainstream U.S. newspaper editors have urged Washington to formally promise not to attack the DPRK in exchange for the dismantling of its military nuclear program. \

But it seems that Washington indeed, as Time Magazine suggested six months before 9-11---before simplistic "evil" had yet entered the American political vocabulary---is "consciously setting out to take it to the next level." That could be around 45,000 feet, the altitude of the mushroom cloud over Nagasaki on August 9, 1945.

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/2070

[twa]

Jms ..why do you ignore our intel showed the NK subverting the agreements under Clinton and continuing to under W?

Foolishness

[JMS]

Jms ..why do you ignore our intel showed the NK subverting the agreements under Clinton and continuing to under W?

Foolishness

There is no intel which shows that. Give me a link! No clinton administration official ever made that claim.. When Bush made that claim in 2001 a month after he got into office He did so answering a reporters question, not as a policy statement. Then his own handlers corrected him saying they had no evidence North Korea was cheating...

Bush used the same flimsey accusations a month after he took office to tarnish both Iraq and N. Korea; sighting pipes purchased abroad which Bush claimed were centrifuge tubes in both cases. Those tubes were purchased as artilery tubes; Bush claimed the specifications were too precise to be just artilery tubes thus proving they must have been purchased to refine uranium. The problem turns out the specifications were exactly the same ones the United States military uses for it's own artilery tubes. And of coarse in the case for Iraq these tubes were proven to be artilery tubes...

Made up stuff. Bush talking off script. That's what got the ball rolling. That's what we are talking about. But in the case of N. Korea the Bush administration specifically stated in 2001 when they pulled out of the Clinton era talks that they had NO Evidence North Korea had breached the agreement. Conflicting/correcting Bush's own statement which were termed a gaff by news organizations of the day including Time Magazine. The Administration ultimately justified their unilateral move to suspend the Clinton eara talks not by saying N. Korea was cheating on the plan but by calling for a review of the N. Korea policy. A policy which had been reviewed by the Clinton administration just 18 months prior to Bush's new review. This suspention and review was the beginning of several steps the administration took to roll back the Clinton era plan before finally breaking it preceeding N. Korea's own announcement to the state dept envoy James Kelly Oct 2002, they were re-openning their uranium refinery..

[nonniey]

There is no intel which shows that. Give me a link! No clinton administration official ever made that claim.. When Bush made that claim in 2001 a month after he got into office He did so answering a reporters question, not as a policy statement. Then his own handlers corrected him saying they had no evidence North Korea was cheating...

Bush used the same flimsey accusations a month after he took office to tarnish both Iraq and N. Korea; sighting pipes purchased abroad which Bush claimed were centrifuge tubes in both cases. Those tubes were purchased as artilery tubes; Bush claimed the specifications were too precise to be just artilery tubes thus proving they must have been purchased to refine uranium. The problem turns out the specifications were exactly the same ones the United States military uses for it's own artilery tubes. And of coarse in the case for Iraq these tubes were proven to be artilery tubes...

Made up stuff. Bush talking off script. That's what got the ball rolling. That's what we are talking about. But in the case of N. Korea the Bush administration specifically stated in 2001 when they pulled out of the Clinton era talks that they had NO Evidence North Korea had breached the agreement. Conflicting/correcting Bush's own statement which were termed a gaff by news organizations of the day including Time Magazine. The Administration ultimately justified their unilateral move to suspend the Clinton eara talks not by saying N. Korea was cheating on the plan but by calling for a review of the N. Korea policy. A policy which had been reviewed by the Clinton administration just 18 months prior to Bush's new review. This suspention and review was the beginning of several steps the administration took to roll back the Clinton era plan before finally breaking it preceeding N. Korea's own announcement to the state dept envoy James Kelly Oct 2002, they were re-openning their uranium refinery..

JMS gotta love how you always throw us softballs.

this from the Jan 2010 Congressional Research Service.

"..........U.S. intelligence agencies also tracked North Korea’s import of components which could be used in

an HEU program. Initial imports began in 1998 and 1999 and accelerated in 2000 and afterwards.

Major imports included 150 tons of aluminum tubes from Russia, equipment for uranium fuel and

withdrawal systems, uranium hexafluoride from Pakistan, an industrial inverter from Japan that could

be used in an HEU program, and three specialized power supply devices.65 In April 2003, a North Korean shipment of 200 tons of aluminum tubing, purchased in Germany, was seized at the Suez

Canal.

The Clinton Administration reportedly learned of an HEU program in 1998 or 1999, and a

Department of Energy report of 1999 cited evidence of the program. In March 2000, President

Clinton notified Congress that he was waiving certification that “North Korea is not seeking to

develop or acquire the capability to enrich uranium.” Reportedly, according to a CIA report to

Congress, North Korea attempted in late 2001 to acquire “centrifuge-related materials in large

quantities to support a uranium enrichment program.”66..........

www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33590.pdf

Question for you. Are you even capable of admitting error?

[nonniey]

Looks like this thread got the jump ahead of media on the Nuclear issues. This from the WSJ (JMS you are not going to like it, as it throws even more cold water on your theory about Bush's unjustified actions on North Korea).

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704369304575632470933720174.html

".....In 1994, Clinton administration negotiators acknowledged that North Korea might be experimenting with uranium enrichment, but they chose to focus on an agreement called the Agreed Framework freezing the North's plutonium production at the Yongbyon facility. Intelligence agencies followed the uranium trail, but policy makers ignored it. As North Korea's most senior defector, Hwang Jang Yop, told us in 2004, the regime negotiated the Agreed Framework with every intention of "confronting the U.S. with a nuclear deterrent" before the reactors were complete and inspections became necessary.

In 2002, the Bush administration received compelling intelligence about active North Korean efforts to procure the equipment and materials necessary for a highly enriched uranium (HEU) facility. The experts had put together multiple-source information like a Rosetta Stone in an amazing piece of sleuthing. The exact state of the program was still unclear, but estimates were that it could be up and running within the decade. This was right on target, as we now know.

The North's clandestine HEU program was a blatant violation of the Agreed Framework, and in response the Bush administration suspended shipments of heavy fuel oil to North Korea. Critics immediately accused President Bush—not Kim Jong Il—of destroying the nuclear deal, even though the evidence demonstrated that the North had been assembling the HEU program since at least the 1990s......."

[Thiebear]

At no point has NK actually stopped anything.. At no point has Iran stopped anything.

(that is the beginning and the end of the detailed intelligence and everyday common sense.

I drove around in Seoul and the DMZ, its such a short distance i can't imagine catching a large % of the shells/missiles.

It's like having Fort Myer Wash D.C. shelling Quantico Virginia. (traffic a bit worse there).

[Mickalino]

Couldn't we do a massive Shock and Awe and simultaneously bomb all of their missile launchers with hundreds of fighter planes before they have a chance to shell Seoul ?