CNN: Report: N. Korea fires on S. Korea, injuring at least 16

[JMS]

Loggin 20 pts and 9 boards a game, to go along with 12 stiches.

Seriously, what could Obama say now that could possibily ease tensions? Perhaps issue a joint statement with the Chinease Priemer (dictator??)?

The entire reason north korea is provoking this confrontation is because they want to reopen talks with the US. They got caught with another nuclear refinery abrocating our deal with them, and now they want to negotiate a resumption of aid. Obama and the US doesn't want to reward bad behavior and thus are going to take their time at resuming negotiations. Let North Korea sweat a litte. This is north korea's way of making the US and our allies sweat too.

Obama is trying to show solidarity with South Korea via the military exersizes, but not reward N. Korea with direct talks... yet...

It's about the 30th time we've done this.

[The 12th Commandment]

How does the prospect of trouble impact Obama? A clear antagonist that the whole country agrees is a madman. Very provocative actions by the madman and a strong likelihood of more to come. He killed civilians this time and forced the evacuation of a fairly sizable island. The South Koreans are finally getting pissed enough to maybe start supporting some military action going the other way (and even more likely cutting off food) though they are still scared ****less of the north and rightly so.

Then you've got China involved who we seem particularly scared of lately. The prospect of getting rough with someone you owe that much money to has got to impact policy.

Could it be a winner in the political arena although, of course, I strongly hope nothing escalates it to that point? Would get peoples minds off the economy for a while at least. Would probably ensure we get out of the ME at the soonest. It would be a very different thing than the wars over there I would think. Maybe someone more familiar with Korea can speculate what kind of action it might entail? I can't imagine a repeat of the Korean war although I don't know much about the situation there today.

[heyholetsgogrant]

If you have Google earth, here is a KMZ file you can put into Goggle Earth to see North Koreas defenses, no question it would be a bloodbath and Seoul would be flattened.

Link for file:

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=1339740

Here is a more in depth look using google earth and the actual weapons they have:

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-(2009)&p=4310966#post4310966

Here is a screen shot of North Koreas defenses from my mac.

[JMS]

How does the prospect of trouble impact Obama? A clear antagonist that the whole country agrees is a madman. Very provocative actions by the madman and a strong likelihood of more to come. He killed civilians this time and forced the evacuation of a fairly sizable island. The South Koreans are finally getting pissed enough to maybe start supporting some military action going the other way (and even more likely cutting off food) though they are still scared ****less of the north and rightly so.

South Korean busboys and waiters you mean. Not the South Korean government. That's because North Korea has like 100,000 artilery tubes within range of Seul. Even if we take them out as they are used that's still going to do a lot of damage to South Korea's most populous zone. South Korea's government want's no part in that, and who can blame them.

Then you've got China involved who we seem particularly scared of lately. The prospect of getting rough with someone you owe that much money to has got to impact policy.

Haven't you read the newspaper... China's US debt doesn't seem to be that important. The fed is just printing more dollars. 600 billion last month, another hundred billion this month.... What's another trillion next month?

Could it be a winner in the political arena although, of course, I strongly hope nothing escalates it to that point? Would get peoples minds off the economy for a while at least. Would probably ensure we get out of the ME at the soonest. It would be a very different thing than the wars over there I would think. Maybe someone more familiar with Korea can speculate what kind of action it might entail? I can't imagine a repeat of the Korean war although I don't know much about the situation there today.

I think if N. Korea did something dumb and Obama responded strongly it would certainly help him. Not sure it would help anybody else though. Certainly not South Korea.

[sjinhan]

South Korean busboys and waiters you mean. Not the South Korean government. That's because North Korea has like 100,000 artilery tubes within range of Seul. Even if we take them out as they are used that's still going to do a lot of damage to South Korea's most populous zone. South Korea's government want's no part in that, and who can blame them.

Yeah South Korea and EVEN North Korea have their hand tied.. Going to war is a lose-lose scenario for both countries. Heck probably its lose-lose scenario for China, US, and Japan as well...

Haven't you read the newspaper... China's US debt doesn't seem to be that important. The fed is just printing more dollars. 600 billion last month, another hundred billion this month.... What's another trillion next month?

Like everyone else.. China doesnt want anything that is going to hurt their business... Having a war on the Korean peninsula is bad for business for China. More than likely destablized region will take down Japan's economy as well since they are in even worse shape than we are. Probably Japan as a nation wont be able to take on the burden of spend hefty amount of cash on national defense. Having two world class economies (and customers) get stablized is bad business for China and we are not even talking about the war's impact on USA which also affects China.

From Chinese perspective, they have no reason to make a strong statement against the North Korea. The world already thinks that they are the big kid on the block in the region.. If China comes out with a strong statement and North Korea still goofs around.. it is just going to hurt China's image... China will know before anybody if North Korea is really intending to go to war. If it comes to that I see China putting North Korea in its place, not for the good of the world but for themselves...

I think if N. Korea did something dumb and Obama responded strongly it would certainly help him. Not sure it would help anybody else though. Certainly not South Korea.

Kind of going in line with my point above.. actually only people that is benefiting from this is North Korea's controling party. If USA and South Korea respond too strongly then you will probably see North Korea try to rally its people on "its war time" propagenda in order to solidify the power transfer from Kim Jung Il to his youngest son.

This is my hope. After Kim Jung Il's youngest son solidify his base, I really hope the young man would try to open up economically. He has been schooled in Europe and hopefully some of the good idealogy from rest of the world have imbeded deep in his head from his time outside his country. Probably won't happen but I am still going to hope.

[JMS]

Kind of going in line with my point above.. actually only people that is benefiting from this is North Korea's controling party. If USA and South Korea respond too strongly then you will probably see North Korea try to rally its people on "its war time" propagenda in order to solidify the power transfer from Kim Jung Il to his youngest son.

We can take moves though that wouldn't be in North korea's advantage or benifit. If their bad behaivor has pushed China more into our camp; a joint resolution with China on these troubles might be such a move....

Perhapse even a new round of sanctions with Chinese support. I think that's what Obama is going for.

This is my hope. After Kim Jung Il's youngest son solidify his base, I really hope the young man would try to open up economically. He has been schooled in Europe and hopefully some of the good idealogy from rest of the world have imbeded deep in his head from his time outside his country. Probably won't happen but I am still going to hope.

IT will probable take years for him to solidify power. The Old N. Korean Leadership will be very influencial for years to come. But as they die out. I think the world hopes your model becomes reality.

I think that's the best hope to address this problem.

[DjTj]

South Korean defense minister Kim Tae-young was questioned by one politician why the South's retaliation was delayed 13 minutes and not forceful enough, to which Kim replied, "This isn't StarCraft."

http://gizmodo.com/5701402/south-korean-politician-on-korean-crisis-this-isnt-starcraft

[sjinhan]

We can take moves though that wouldn't be in North korea's advantage or benifit. If their bad behaivor has pushed China more into our camp; a joint resolution with China on these troubles might be such a move....

Perhapse even a new round of sanctions with Chinese support. I think that's what Obama is going for.

Well I think China has always been in the corner of not wanting war on the peninsula. But still there is no reason for China to make a joint resolution with USA over North Korea. China has that in their back pocket and can take it out whenever. Personally, I will be worried if I hear China make some public "joint resolution" type of deal toward North Korea. If China suddenly changes their position on North Korea then you know something is not operating as usual.

IT will probable take years for him to solidify power. The Old N. Korean Leadership will be very influencial for years to come. But as they die out. I think the world hopes your model becomes reality.

I think that's the best hope to address this problem.

Oh no I dont think this power struggle is to get Kim Jong Il's son power directly.. I think it is more of a power struggle between different groups within North Korea. We just want this power struggle to end quickly. Plus South Korea can't absorb North Korea socially, logistically, and financially anyways so although we want the Korea to be unified at some point, it shouldn't want it to happen over night. The impact of unification would be even greater than when West Germany unified with East Germany. We need North Korea to stay together for another 15-20 years to develope somewhat before the Koreas unify.

[visionary]

Whoa!

New leaks suggest China losing patience with N. Korea

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/29/latest-updates-wikileaks-diplomatic-cables-release/?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

WikiLeaks documents posted on the websites of the Guardian and the New York Times suggest China is losing patience with its long-time ally North Korea, with senior figures in Beijing describing the regime in the North as behaving like a "spoiled child."

According to cables obtained by WikiLeaks and cited by the Guardian, South Korea's vice-foreign minister Chun Yung-woo said he had been told by two senior Chinese officials (whose names are redacted in the cables) that they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

In a cable sent by U.S. Ambassador Kathleen Stevens earlier this year, Chun said the North had already collapsed economically and would collapse politically two to three years after the death of leader Kim Jong-il.CNN has viewed the cables posted on the newspapers' websites.

Chun dismissed the prospect of a possible Chinese military intervention in the event of a North Korean collapse, noting that China's strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan and South Korea - not North Korea.

[SkinInsite]

http://gizmodo.com/5701402/south-korean-politician-on-korean-crisis-this-isnt-starcraft

Nuclear Lunch Detected!!!!!!!!!

[sjinhan]

Whoa!

New leaks suggest China losing patience with N. Korea

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/29/latest-updates-wikileaks-diplomatic-cables-release/?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

yeah but you quoting it out of context...

here is rest

They also show that talk of the North’s collapse may be rooted more in hope than in any real strategy: similar predictions were made in 1994 when the country’s founder, Kim Il-sung, suddenly died, leaving his son to run the most isolated country in Asia. And a Chinese expert warned, according to an American diplomat, that Washington was deceiving itself once again if it believed that “North Korea would implode after Kim Jong-il’s death.”

[visionary]

yeah but you quoting it out of context...

here is rest

I quoted what there was to quote about North Korea (at least at the time I read it)

Hmmm. I'm confused. I still don't see your quote in the article.

[twa]

The gaining ground part is critical,which is usually used for a minority opinion

[Toe Jam]

South Korea prepares emergency shelters.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/south-korea-prepares-emergency-shelters-69600

Last week's deadly attack on Yeonpyeong island has escalated military and diplomatic tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and for some in the South Korean capital, Seoul, there is an increasing fear of North Korean retaliation.

Hence, evacuation centres were being prepared in the city on Monday, amidst mounting tensions.

There are 3919 emergency shelters across Seoul - many are housed in subway stations or underground carparks.

According to local officials, evacuation shelters can be easily reached by everyone within five minutes and can accommodate more than 20 million people

click link for more

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Wow...I hope that those shelters are simply a precaution.

[twa]

Gee this sounds familiar, now what does it remind me of?

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/01/world/asia/01seoul.html?hp

US, Japan, South Korea have nothing to talk about with Norks

Obama administration officials said that a return to the table with North Korea, as China sought this weekend, would be rewarding the North for provocative behavior over the past week, including its deadly artillery attack on a South Korean island and its disclosure of a uranium enrichment plant. Beijing called for emergency talks with North Korea, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Russia, participants in the six-party nuclear talks, which have been suspended indefinitely.

“The United States and a host of others, I don’t think, are not interested in stabilizing the region through a series of P.R. activities,” said Robert Gibbs, the White House spokesman.

[Larry]

You're right, it sounds familiar.

(And I still disagree with it.)

[JMS]

You're right, it sounds familiar.

(And I still disagree with it.)

When Obama doesn't talk to North Korea for five long years, then it will sound familiar....

As it stands this is totally justified. North Korea get's caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Then they ratchet up the crisis to force talks... Because only through talks can they regain their aid package they desparately require.....

I think Obama is entirely justified to hold out for a short time. Ultimately though he will go back to the table... It's in our interest to get a deal done. It's also in our interest to avoid these hysterics in the future.

[twa]

You're right, it sounds familiar.

(And I still disagree with it.)

You have the right to be wrong

JMS...what has going to the table brought us?

[Larry]

what has going to the table brought us?

Every single agreement we've ever had.

[Predicto]

Every single agreement we've ever had.

With anyone in history.

[Hubbs]

South Korea maintains 9 million men (roughly) under arms. About 4 times the size of the United States. 3rd largest military in the world. Exactly what makes you say they aren't relying on numbers to prevail in a war against North Korea? As for them keeping a larger force... Sure they could aford to keep a larger force. but currently about 50% of the men (15-64) are in the service. That's pretty significant.

I didn't say they weren't using numbers to their advantage whenever they can. I said they weren't relying upon numbers to win.

Well as long as we are taking your word for it. Their military is 4x's as large as ours and they spend 4% of our yearly budget on defense. You should write a letter to the Pentagon and tell them 96% of our defense budget is wasted. According to you per man we could probable get away with 1% of our current defense budget and still maintain a decisive advantage..... Rather silly your premise.

I have absolutely no idea how you came to that conclusion. Making numbers your core strategy and making them one part of many that make up your strategy are two very different things. North Korea has done the former. South Korea has done the latter. And the north has largely failed in its efforts, because it doesn't have a significant numbers advantage in total men (and women) under arms in a total war scenario.

The side which is the agressor as TWA was saying would have the advantage. The population size is meaningless.

Right, because SK hasn't had 50 years to prepare its reserves to respond rapidly to a surprise attack. It would catch them totally off guard.

I was not speaking of unconventional tactics,but rather weapons,of which NK in more than enough numbers.

Which unconventional weapons? And which ones does NK have that a guy on a Redskins message board can discuss, but South Korea hasn't known about for years?

Even w/o those NK could decimate SK's population and infrastructure,leaving a rather hollow 'victory' if your technological advantage perhaps prevails.

Of course the Norths ability to hit anywhere in the South w/o even utilizing air power makes that victory less than certain.

Don't confuse our tactics and abilities with SK's as we have never fought from their exposed starting position....there is no Shock and Awe from a distance there

Oh, a war would destroy the peninsula. All I'm talking about is who would ultimately win, even if it was a pyrrhic victory. And I'm certainly not talking about a "shock and awe" campaign. I'm talking about what would happen if NK struck first.

[twa]

Every single agreement we've ever had.

And what has every single agreement with NK brought us?

added

Hubbs, being prepared for massive bombardment with chemical weapons or nuclear is not that simple

http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/NK/Chemical/index.html

The DPRK ranks among the world's largest possessors of chemical weapons. If official reports and testimonies from North Korean defectors are to be believed, the DPRK military possesses between 2,500 and 5,000 metric tons of chemical weapons (it is unclear if this amount includes only CW agents or agents and munitions). The DPRK's chemical arsenal allegedly include four of the five major classes of CW agents, including phosgene (choking), hydrogen cyanide (blood), mustard (blister), and sarin (nerve agent) (it does not appear to possess nervous system incapacitants such as BZ). However, a 2002 report by the commander of U.S. Forces in Korea, General Thomas A. Schwartz, suggests that DPRK is self-sufficient only in World War I era CW agents such as phosgene, lewisite, and mustard blister agents, but not the modern nerve agents.[1] Reports and documentary evidence from North Korean defectors suggest that the regime tested chemical agents on humans, especially prisoners, as recently as 2002. One witness describes how he stole transfer authorizations for prisoners, stating: "Each document gives sparse biographical details of an individual and authorises his or her transfer from a prison specifically for the purpose of 'human experimentation of liquid gas for chemical weapons testing in live experiments.' Forms are dated as late as July 2002."[2]

The Suspected DPRK Chemical Weapons Arsenal

The DPRK is believed to possess mustard, phosgene, sarin, and V-series nerve agents. Dr. Cho'ng Yo'ng-sik from the Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology has estimated that DPRK is capable of producing an annual 5,000 metric tons of CW agents in times of peace. According to him, the DPRK could increase this production to 12,000 metric tons should the country be placed on war footing.[9] While an unknown quantity of CW agents is stored in bulk, reportedly a significant portion of the DPRK stock of BW agents is loaded into artillery shells and rocket warheads. Due to the DPRK having limited indigenous sources for precursors of CW agents, it is believed to be concentrating on producing as much as it can of phosgene, mustard, sarin, and V-agents.[10]

Delivery Systems

Over half of DPRK's 1.2 million-man army, supported by thousands of artillery systems, is deployed within 90 miles of the DMZ. Possibly because chemical agents are best delivered by larger caliber artillery shells and rockets, beginning in 2002 the DPRK has acted to substantially increase the number of long-range multiple rocket 280 mm and 320 mm launching systems near the DMZ. The country's arsenal includes thousands of artillery of various calibers, hundreds of forward deployed Scud-B, Frog-5, and Frog-7 missiles, as well as Scud-C missiles capable of being fitted with chemical warheads. The ROK government has asserted that half of the DPRK's long-range missiles and almost one-third of its other artillery weapons are capable of delivering either biological or chemical agents,[13] although the effectiveness of these weapons are not known. In October 2007, a South Korean lawmaker, citing intelligence data, claimed that the DPRK had developed a new short range missile, the KN-2, which reportedly is a modified version of the Russian SS-21. The solid fuel-propelled KN-2 reportedly has a 120 km range, is capable of delivering a 500 kg payload, and can carry a chemical warhead.[14]

According to the MND 2008 Defense White Paper, DPRK deployed a new intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) in 2007. The white paper also states that the DPRK is believed to be continuing to develop its Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile which is estimated to have a range of 6,700 kilometers. The MND notes further that the the missile's maximum range could be extended if the DPRK reduces the missile's weight or adds a third propulsion rocket.[17] The implications of these developments for CW are not yet known, but it is wise to assume that these new missiles are designed to carry a variety of warheads, including a chemical one.

[Hubbs]

twa, I would say that the very nature of chemical weapons suggests that NK has gathered them in response to paranoia about an attack from the south/US, not as an offensive weapon, simply by virtue of the fact that the use of chemical weapons in an offensive campaign would result in severe damage to the north's own forces. In general, chemical weapons linger for a long, long time, especially in places that can't be cleaned easily, like the undersides of bars in fences, the interiors of buildings that had a lot of people opening doors to moves in and out, and various vehicle parts. There's no way they have millions of chemical suits, and even if they did, wearing them would put NK at a severe disadvantage against all air attacks, as their vision and mobility would be limited.

Again, I'm not disputing that another war would decimate the peninsula. I'm disputing the notion that the north would have a decent chance at winning. The south knows more about the north's chemical weapons than you or I will ever know. The northern soldiers that could be successfully equipped to withstand toxic chemicals spread in the very territory they're trying to conquer would be met by southern and US soldiers equipped to withstand chemical warfare as well.

As for nukes, that's a battle that nobody wins. The north nukes the south, we nuke the north. The south won't win, but the north won't win, either.

[visionary]

South Korea's defense minister vows airstrikes if North Korea attacks

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/03/south.korea.threat/index.html

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- South Korea's new defense minister said his country would respond with airstrikes if North Korea attacks it again, South Korean state media reported Friday. It is some of the strongest rhetoric since the conflict broke out late last month.

"We will definitely air raid North Korea," Kim Kwan-jin said at his confirmation hearing when asked how the South would respond if struck again, according to the official Yonhap News Agency.

Kim was appointed defense minister last week amid growing tensions on the Korean peninsula following an exchange of gunfire between the two sides.

His comments reflect a potential shift in South Korea's policy toward provocations from the North. Previously, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak warned of severe consequences if the North launched another attack, but declined to name specifics.

"If the North commits any additional provocations against the South, we will make sure that it pays a dear price without fail," he said in a nationally televised address Monday.

Han Park, an expert on North Korea who has visited the country more than 50 times, called Kim's comments "an important development."

"The use of airstrikes is quite significant," said Park, a professor at the University of Georgia and director of the school's Center for the Study of Global Issues. "Just sending bullets from South Korea is one thing but sending aircraft over North Korea is something else."

However, he cautioned that the ramped-up rhetoric is "almost entirely for domestic consumption" as the South deals with criticism over what some have called a weak response to the North's November 23 shelling of South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island. The attack killed four South Koreans -- two civilians and two military personnel -- and the South returned fire.

Japan, U.S. begin joint military exercises

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/03/japan.us.drills/index.html

(CNN) -- The United States and Japan started joint military exercises Friday, the Japanese defense ministry said, as tensions simmered on the Korean peninsula.

About 10,500 U.S. service members are taking part in the drills, officials said.

The "Keen Sword" exercise will continue until December 10 on military sites in Okinawa, mainland Japan and the waters surrounding it, according to officials.

"Keen Sword will cap the 50th anniversary of the Japan-U.S. alliance as an 'alliance of equals,'" said Maj. William Vause, chief of operational plans, training and exercises. "It is the largest bilateral exercise between the United States and Japan military forces. [The exercise] will better enhance both of our countries' readiness to respond to varied crisis situations."

The drill is not directed to any nation, officials said.

U.S., South Korea reach free trade agreement

http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/03/news/international/south_korea_free_trade/index.htm?hpt=T1

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The United States has reached a tentative free trade agreement with South Korea, the White House said Friday.

The agreement, which must be ratified by Congress, strengthens economic ties between Washington and Seoul at a time when the longtime U.S. ally faces an increasingly hostile northern neighbor.

If ratified, the agreement would eliminate tariffs on over 95% of industrial and consumer goods within five years.

"It is a strong, balanced package," a senior administration official said during a conference call with reporters. "It is a win-win both for Koreans and for Americans."

The U.S. International Trade Commission has estimated that the tariff cuts alone in the U.S.-Korea trade agreement will increase exports of American goods by $10 billion to $11 billion, and the White House touted the agreement's job-supporting potential.

Clinton meeting with Japanese, S. Korean counterparts on North Korea

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/12/03/meeting.north.korea/index.html?hpt=T1

Washington (CNN) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will meet Monday with the foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan to discuss North Korea.

Officials from China and Russia are not invited, even though they are members of the six-party talks on North Korea.

A senior State Department official, speaking on background because of the diplomatic sensitivity of the issue, said the meeting is meant to bring together the three "cornerstones of security in the region" and "China should not view this as a snub."

North Korea wants six-party talks to resume but the United States has refused, insisting that Pyonyang show it is serious about ending provocations and development of its nuclear program.