CNN: Report: N. Korea fires on S. Korea, injuring at least 16

[JMS]

Oh I doubt China would be happy about the unification of the Korean peninsula. But if it naturally occurs, I don't think they go to war over it. It's not the existential threat that it once was. Kinda like Taiwan isn't the big deal it used to be. Now if it comes down to shots being fired and a forced unification I'm not sure what would happen.

True but we aren't talking about naturally occuring. We would be talking about a repeat of the Korean war here with South Korean troops and American troops invading North Korea. Do you honestly think China will sit that one out?

Though I gotta say, I don't know that South Korea would even want to absorb North Korea. That country is a disaster. I can't imagine them wanting to be responsible for the people there. I'm sure they want nothing more in life than a different regime/government that stops posing a threat, but I'm not sure they'd want complete unification.

I think South Korea would definitely want to absorb them. The people of the north are their relatives and friends. That was one country for centuries, both sides still consider it one country; except for the ****s on the other side. That thing would fall back together like east and west germany if N. Korea's leaders would allow it.

[AsburySkinsFan]

China has no interest in deterring him because they know we'll do nothing about it. So they get to trade with him and make $ and have zero threat to themselves.

Allowing China to have any influence over our foreign policy is a mistake.

Ok, after threatening to start WWIII and now this I think I can effectively ignore your foreign policy ideas from here on out.

[JMS]

As for the nuclear question.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/25/north-korea-hiroshima-nuclear-test

If they are faking then they are doing a really good job of it.

Larry is right. N. Korea conducted a nuclear test and declaired it sucessful. US intelligence however believes that their bomb misfired and never reached critical mass. It blew itself appart before achieving it's designed threashhold.

[Kilmer17]

Ok, after threatening to start WWIII and now this I think I can effectively ignore your foreign policy ideas from here on out.

Awesome, I've been ignoring your kumbaya sing along vision of the world for years.

We WONT do anything because the POTUS (as those before him) is a feckless leader who will allow the deaths of many because of the fear of the deaths of many more COULD occur.

Where would NK be today if Bush 1 or Clinton had shown some stones?

[JMS]

China has no interest in deterring him because they know we'll do nothing about it. So they get to trade with him and make $ and have zero threat to themselves.

Allowing China to have any influence over our foreign policy is a mistake.

China doesn't exactly trade with N. Korea. They have an defense alliance and they are allies. North Korea doesn't have much China wants. China is however N. Korea's oldest benifactor and supplies north Korea substantial assistance both military and non military aid.

The problem dealing with China isn't that we don't know what China will do. The real problem with dealing with China is China doesn't know what it will do. Their government is so flakey with so many heads, it's hard for them to reach concensus or predict what random alliance will occur resulting in what policy decision. How China will react to any unplanned emergency is thus not very predictable.

I agree with Kilmer though. This isn't about China. China does not enhance or diminish this threat significantly by their involvement. In the 1950's the big fear was Russia's nuclear weapons if the US invaded China. Today Nukes are still the big fear only this time the flakiest flake in leadership globally has those nuclear weapons... ( THANKS GEORGE W BUSH... )... Nothing that China would bring to the table would caste a larger shadow against our policy than North Korea's nuclear weapons..

This equation becomes simple. We let N. Korea do what they do and protest and go through the niceties; until they cross the line. That line is likely moving against Seul. We don't advertise that line, frankly because advertising it would make it more likely to happen not less likely. That's the way N. Korea rolls. If they cross that line and this war goes full on we see if South Korea can handle it themselves. The US military contingent in Korea is nothing but a trip wire. We get those guys back away from the frey, if we can. If the south can handle it with weapons transfers and air support... We do that. If they can't then we have to put boots on the ground. If we have to strike, we strike as fast and as hard as we can.... Let China figure out what they want to do, it's not our concern.

Figure China after all has a nuclear arsenal only marginally larger than N. Korea's. Around 100 warheads. China as unilaterally pledged not to go nuclear first. When you are the most populous country on earth, nuclear weapons are not to your advantage. China isn't the problem here unless they decide to become the problem. North Korea is problem enough all buy themselves.

[Hunter44]

We should just end this. Why worry about the Chinese? We owe them so much money that if they step in then we're debt free!! Win win!!

[No Excuses]

[Tweedr01]

Ok as a 17 year old, I'm not in touch with international happenings so my question is ... " how concerned should this make me?"

Go watch Team America: World Police then you will know all

[TD_washingtonredskins]

We should just end this. Why worry about the Chinese? We owe them so much money that if they step in then we're debt free!! Win win!!

Debt-free with World War 3. I like it!

[JMS]

Ok, after threatening to start WWIII and now this I think I can effectively ignore your foreign policy ideas from here on out.

A war with China would not be WWIII. A war with China would be a regional conflict not unlike Iraq or Afghanistan just on a much larger scale. China has almost no means to project power extended from their boarders. Certainly any such projection would not measure well against our own ability to project power. China would not use it's rather small nuclear deterant unless we used nukes first. We could control that.

China would have to know if she went to war against us it would be pretty easy for it to spread, something whch did not occur in the 1950's Korean war. Today you've got several regional powers who have no love lost against china. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam. If China decided to involve itself with N. Korea they would risk a much broader war whcih their military is entirely unsuited for. Give them 30 years and it might be different story, but today. North Korea is really the threat to be concerned with here. China's involvment would broaden that fight, but not significantly... Our forces would face a numerically superior enemy which was technololgically backwards. We played that dance in Kuwait in 1990 and Iraq in 2003. We know how that dance plays out. It's the nuclear card which would be new. And that card is in North Korea's hand.

[JMS]

We should just end this. Why worry about the Chinese? We owe them so much money that if they step in then we're debt free!! Win win!!

War is expensive and unpredictable. It's infinintely better to avoid war. If the troubles with N. Korea can be contained we should do that. If we can buy off N. Korea again we should do that. The only way we should entertain a war is if the cost of doing nothing becomes worse than the cost of action. A movement against the capital of south korea and it's tens of millions of people would be one such move.

That's how wars like this start. One side miscalculates and the other side has no choice.

[nonniey]

China has no interest in deterring him because they know we'll do nothing about it. So they get to trade with him and make $ and have zero threat to themselves.

Allowing China to have any influence over our foreign policy is a mistake.

There is one way to do it. Let the Chinese know we are going to destroy whatever limited objective (Lets say the North Korean Navy) or they can cut off all fuel deliveries for three months. Idea is to basically negotiate a painful penalty with the Chinese, in otherwords force the Chinese hand.

[twa]

It would be nice if the world dumped it in Chinas lap...they want to be a world leader,then lead in their backyard.

Make it a matter of face.

added

jms...buying them off is a path to destruction we have tread too long.

[nonniey]

..........I agree with Kilmer though. This isn't about China. China does not enhance or diminish this threat significantly by their involvement. In the 1950's the big fear was Russia's nuclear weapons if the US invaded China. Today Nukes are still the big fear only this time the flakiest flake in leadership globally has those nuclear weapons... ( THANKS WILLIAM J CLINTON via jimmy carter... )... Nothing that China would bring to the table would caste a larger shadow against our policy than North Korea's nuclear weapons..........

.

Fixed that for you.

[Hunter44]

War is expensive and unpredictable. It's infinintely better to avoid war. If the troubles with N. Korea can be contained we should do that. If we can buy off N. Korea again we should do that. The only way we should entertain a war is if the cost of doing nothing becomes worse than the cost of action. A movement against the capital of south korea and it's tens of millions of people would be one such move.

That's how wars like this start. One side miscalculates and the other side has no choice.

I understand all that and what I said was partially in jest. The other part wasn't. I guess as long as it's not Americans being killed we're okay with it..... How many attacks on the South will be permitted without retaliation? How many more millions of dollars in bribes will be made before we realize that we're being played.... I think we'll find out sooner than later.

[Sikbug]

People are a little worried here in Japan, most people know some people in SK, me included, or they are SK themselves. I hope it doesn't get any worse.

[19Skins72]

I think the answer is simple, if NK starts a ware, get the chinese to let us use their ground to stage an attack from the north, and when we conquer/liberate NK have China, SK, the US, and perhaps Russia sit on a panel of some kind to help rebuild their society like we did in Iraq. Once civil governance has returned we can get out of the peninsula and stop worrying. Setup a treaty with China ahead of time stipulating then when its all done a new NK will be put together, and the peninsula remains divided.

I have a better idea, albeit incredibly unrealistic. We strike a deal with China - they roll over NK and completely absorb it into China, and for their trouble we abandon Taiwan to China's mercies, and pull our troops out of SK because frankly they would no longer be needed in the region.

[The Sisko]

A war with China would not be WWIII. A war with China would be a regional conflict not unlike Iraq or Afghanistan just on a much larger scale. China has almost no means to project power extended from their boarders. Certainly any such projection would not measure well against our own ability to project power. China would not use it's rather small nuclear deterant unless we used nukes first. We could control that.

China would have to know if she went to war against us it would be pretty easy for it to spread, something whch did not occur in the 1950's Korean war. Today you've got several regional powers who have no love lost against china. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam. If China decided to involve itself with N. Korea they would risk a much broader war whcih their military is entirely unsuited for. Give them 30 years and it might be different story, but today. North Korea is really the threat to be concerned with here. China's involvment would broaden that fight, but not significantly... Our forces would face a numerically superior enemy which was technololgically backwards. We played that dance in Kuwait in 1990 and Iraq in 2003. We know how that dance plays out. It's the nuclear card which would be new. And that card is in North Korea's hand.

You're correct in saying this would probably be a regional conflict. Again though, one can never know what Kim has planned. Perhaps N. Korea has plans for dirty bombs or other non-conventional tactics designed to bring other players into the fray.

Also, I disagree that China has much if any worry over any of the regional powers they have problems with. Japan? Sure they have a technologically advanced military, but with a pacifist attitude that would prevent them from intervening other than under direct attack. In other words, if China doesn't attack them but Kim does, I think they'd be willing to let us handle it. **Edit** Just saw Sikbug's post. I'd love to hear his/her opinion about this**

Even if China's regional neighbors did jump in, they have enough sheer numbers to manage any such threat while still conducting operations in Korea. OTOH, we're tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan and have become war weary as a nation. China has none of that to worry about. As in the first Korean conflict, they could and probably would use human wave tactics taking losses of 10 or more to 1 for weeks, perhaps months or even years. How long would we be willing to stick around under those circumstances, especially once a point of stagnation is reached? Probably not long.

Finally, there's the economic angle. We've gone on about the deficit for some time now. How much more deficit spending can we absorb to pay for another war before a tax increase becomes inevitable? An increase in taxes would probably cause more political uproar than even military casualties. And that doesn't even take into account the fragile state of the global economy...

IMHO the wild card this time around is how much the N. Koreans have suffered and been brainwashed. I have to wonder how long the average N. Korean soldier would be willing or even able to fight for "Dear Leader" once their meager rations of food got cut off and they started seeing tangible proof of the amount and magnitude of the lies that have been fed to them over the years...instead of food. That wildcard might make conventional operations relatively quick.

Again though, the uncertainty about Kim and what he's got up his sleeve is what makes this a dangerous undertaking.

[Predicto]

If one nets everything down isn't NK just a proxy for China??

Nope.

Things would be a lot easier for everyone if it was.

[Predicto]

China has no interest in deterring him because they know we'll do nothing about it. So they get to trade with him and make $ and have zero threat to themselves.

You are spewing utter nonsense in this thread, and this is the most obvious example of it. North Korea has nothing useful to trade with China, or with anyone. China is not making $$$ off of that relationship.

China does what it does for two reasons:

1) They don't want 25 million starving North Korean refugees entering China.

2) They don't want to lose face by looking like they gave in to US demands.

That's it.

[Predicto]

Awesome, I've been ignoring your kumbaya sing along vision of the world for years.

We WONT do anything because the POTUS (as those before him) is a feckless leader who will allow the deaths of many because of the fear of the deaths of many more COULD occur.

Where would NK be today if Bush 1 or Clinton had shown some stones?

Proably dead. Along with about 3 million innocent South Koreans.

Or maybe we all would be dead and the world would be irradiated for the next 180,000 years. Who knows?

"Showing stones" isn't a goal in itself.

[PeterMP]

War is expensive and unpredictable. It's infinintely better to avoid war. If the troubles with N. Korea can be contained we should do that. If we can buy off N. Korea again we should do that. The only way we should entertain a war is if the cost of doing nothing becomes worse than the cost of action. A movement against the capital of south korea and it's tens of millions of people would be one such move.

It would have been less expensive 10 years ago, and will be more expensive 10 years from now.

[AsburySkinsFan]

Proably dead. Along with about 3 million innocent South Koreans.

Or maybe we all would be dead and the world would be irradiated for the next 180,000 years. Who knows?

"Showing stones" isn't a goal in itself.

No Predicto, don't you understand, foreign relations is like a video game, it's not like there are real lives at risk, you shoot first and ask questions later and if Kim Jong Il nukes SK then you sit back and be glad that you're on the other side of the world. Although, later you'll have to cut the tumors out of your sushi but still it's not our problem.

[grhqofb5]

It would have been less expensive 10 years ago, and will be more expensive 10 years from now.

Yes, especially when you throw the "big tobacco" firms into the equation.

[Predicto]

I have a better idea, albeit incredibly unrealistic. We strike a deal with China - they roll over NK and completely absorb it into China, and for their trouble we abandon Taiwan to China's mercies, and pull our troops out of SK because frankly they would no longer be needed in the region.

China wants Taiwan, but they do not want the garbage pile that is North Korea.