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The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc


BRAVEONAWARPATH

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Max deals are almost always a leap of faith though. Any big contract is. You're not really paying them for past performances, you're betting on a level of play you think they'll have in the future.

The lackluster stretches of Wall's career can typically be explained by either injuries or the horrifically bad team we put around him. There's good reason to expect him to play much better than he has before. The team is a lot better than it used to be and he's gotten better individually. He's started showing a level of play suggestive of what he might become.

Using the first overall pick on Wall was a big bet. From that moment on we made a commitment to him as our franchise player. Letting a #1/#1 pick walk or trading him after his rookie deal is over is something that really only happens if the guy is a bust.

I agree, just looking at from the prism of our franchise. Our leaps of faith usually involve a crash landing.

Break the cycle Wall, break the damn cycle.

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Max deals are almost always a leap of faith though. Any big contract is. You're not really paying them for past performances, you're betting on a level of play you think they'll have in the future.

The lackluster stretches of Wall's career can typically be explained by either injuries or the horrifically bad team we put around him. There's good reason to expect him to play much better than he has before. The team is a lot better than it used to be and he's gotten better individually. He's started showing a level of play suggestive of what he might become.

Using the first overall pick on Wall was a big bet. From that moment on we made a commitment to him as our franchise player. Letting a #1/#1 pick walk or trading him after his rookie deal is over is something that really only happens if the guy is a bust.

Are they? I'll have to look to see what point guards looked like prior to getting a max deal. You might be right but I suspect that Walls production is very far off the mark. The guy had two very mediocre seasons and then missed half a season with a knee injury a 22 year old PG simply shouldn't have. He also said knee tendinitis is something he deals with all the time. All of that is offset by ONE WEEK of max level play?! I can't believe this is the norm in the NBA.

edit:

Are there any max salary point guards in the league not named Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, and Russell Westbrook? I can't find any.

I've pulled the numbers for the max point guards in their third year:

Chris Paul: 21.1ppg .488fg% 11.6apg 2.5to

Deron Williams: 18.8ppg .507fg% 10.5apg 3.4to

Derrick Rose: 25.0ppg .445fg% 7.7apg 3.4to **NBA MVP**

Russel Westbrook: 21.9ppg .442fg% 8.2apg 3.9to

It looks to me like the max contract "always being a gamble" theory doesn't work with the max contract point guards. They were all putting up great numbers before they entered the final year of their rookie deals.

John Wall: 15.6ppg .444fg% 7.5apg 3.6to

Here is what John Wall has done in March of this season, his best month ever as a pro.

20.1ppg .524fg% 7.7apg 3.5to

In other words the only way he does what the other max PGs did prior to get a max deal is essentially sustaining the level of play he's reached in his best month as a pro... for all of next season.

Edited by Destino
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Beal down, reinjures his ankle. Can't really say I enjoy having him as the primary ball handler just yet in his career. With Price out we're definitely thin, but I think that's a coaching mistake.

Edited by MonkFan8
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Beal couldn't have picked a worse way to get injured. Everything about that sequence was horrible.

---------- Post added March-21st-2013 at 12:06 AM ----------

Beal down, reinjures his ankle. Can't really say I enjoy having him as the primary ball handler just yet in his career. With Price out we're definitely thin, but I think that's a coaching mistake.

His handles are bad. We all know that. His dribbling is limited to a quick move to set up a better shot. That will improve over the next couple of years.

---------- Post added March-21st-2013 at 12:13 AM ----------

I'm still blown away by John Walls suddenly fantastic jump shot. If steroids could give you a J I'd suspect him of doping. It's a sudden dramatic major improvement.

---------- Post added March-21st-2013 at 12:27 AM ----------

How often does a team score 29 in the 2nd half and still win? :ols:

Edited by Destino
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His handles are bad. We all know that. His dribbling is limited to a quick move to set up a better shot. That will improve over the next couple of years.

Oh yeah, I have no doubt that's true. I just don't get why the coaches are asking him to handle the ball so much and facilitate when Temple is in the game, since they're playing him a lot when Wall is out of the game.

Damn that was an ugly win.

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Honestly of all the ****ed up things about the Wizards organization, this one to me is the most frustrating. Every year, every year they win down the stretch like the 1980's Celtics and this makes the brass and fans think they are finally putting it together. They think since they are winning down the stretch they have the right coach is place (they don't) they have the right GM in place (they don't) and the plan is working (it isn't).

They don't even know how to tank correctly. They have taken themselves from the third pick to the 9th pick. It is maddening.

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Honestly of all the ****ed up things about the Wizards organization, this one to me is the most frustrating. Every year, every year they win down the stretch like the 1980's Celtics and this makes the brass and fans think they are finally putting it together. They think since they are winning down the stretch they have the right coach is place (they don't) they have the right GM in place (they don't) and the plan is working (it isn't).

They don't even know how to tank correctly. They have taken themselves from the third pick to the 9th pick. It is maddening.

If this team was healthy to start the season, we would be battling for the 6th or 7th seed. Not great, but a solid playoff team. Having your guard play be led by a 19 year old for the first 3 months of the season seriously limits your chances. Since Wall came back, we are over .500. I would rather win and add pieces than tank and cross fingers on the lottery. We have been in the lottery how many years in a row? And we have Wall, Beal, Vesely, Singleton and Seraphin to show for it.
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Came across this on Grantland:

Busts (the Michael Olowokandi Society)

Cody Zeller (Indiana)

I'm sure Zeller will end up having a decent NBA career. He's a skilled 7-footer who runs the floor like a guard and has looked like the best player in the country on a few occasions this year. But for a guy who was hyped as the preseason national player of the year, a potential top overall pick, and the savior of Indiana basketball, I just can't envision a scenario in which he lives up to these expectations. As Indiana fans know all too well, Zeller lets stronger big men push him around far too easily, he doesn't play great defense other than hedging ball screens, and he just isn't that aggressive. That last bit is the source of most of my doubts — Zeller lacks that "give me the damn ball and get out of my way because I'm about to drop-step dunk on someone and rip down the rim" kind of tenacity. That's something you want to see from a big man. Again, I think he'll be a decent NBA player. But considering he'll likely be drafted in the top five and will therefore be expected to be a franchise-changer, "decent" won't be good enough.

The NBA Fan's Guide to March Madness....Which NCAA tournament players will make an impact at the next level?

If we're picking 7th or 8th and need a big man (assuming a few others are off the board), Kelly Olynyk is my guy.

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Came across this on Grantland:

The NBA Fan's Guide to March Madness....Which NCAA tournament players will make an impact at the next level?

If we're picking 7th or 8th and need a big man (assuming a few others are off the board), Kelly Olynyk is my guy.

Meh, I guarantee I've seen more of Zeller play this year than that writer. He's completely wrong on at least one account: Zeller plays great defense. And on another, the "give me the damn ball and get out of my way because I'm about to dunk on someone and rip down the rim" complaint is generic and could be used against almost every big man to come out in a long time. It makes me think he's lost touch with CBB because no bigs, especially underclassmen, are like that. CBB is a guard's game where they dominate the ball and have trouble working it inside as a rule. The guards use the ball at extraordinarily high rate and dribble penetration and 3 point shooting are about 80% of CBB offense. Zeller is actually an anomaly in usage rate for a big and how high he scores per game considering he's a sophomore and he probably gets doubled more than any player in the country.

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If this team was healthy to start the season, we would be battling for the 6th or 7th seed. Not great, but a solid playoff team. Having your guard play be led by a 19 year old for the first 3 months of the season seriously limits your chances. Since Wall came back, we are over .500. I would rather win and add pieces than tank and cross fingers on the lottery. We have been in the lottery how many years in a row? And we have Wall, Beal, Vesely, Singleton and Seraphin to show for it.

Yeah I don't really care about tanking any more. We've got what will hopefully be a two All Star core in Wall and Beal down the road. It's time to start winning.

What I don't think proponents of tanking realize is that Wall is our franchise player. That's been the design since he was drafted. He needed to start proving he could be that guy for us more than anything else this season and the only way that was going to happen is to start leading the team to wins. It's year three of his career. This is the year we were to expect him to get good and power us to wins. Wall knew it and said so himself when he first got back. He's finally starting to do it this March and that's the best thing that could have possibly happened for us.

If Wall didn't start winning and we finished this season like we started it with him playing, then Wall would be considered a bust and probably be out of here sometime next season and we'd have a new GM and HC come in and blow up the entire roster and we're starting from square one all over again, probably two or three years more of lotto picks before we see any progress and the whole time we're filled with doubts. And we probably don't get another #1/#1 pick again and we probably don't get a player as talented as Wall to build around next time.

Not good. We just needed to start winning with our #1/#1 pick.

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as a few others have said....I'd rather instill a winning culture rather than tank for a draft pick. We have a chance to get our Win total up into the mid-high 30s....that would be a nice ending to the season. I don't think this draft has a franchise changing player, but like Steve said....we already have the guy we are building our franchise around...now we need complimentary pieces around him. I say we go BPA no matter what (even if it is a PG) ....We really need a backup PG...would be nice if we got someone with size like Carter-Williams to be the first guard off the bench...play the 1 and 2. I'd take Mason Plumlee to add some toughness and grit to the front line...of course I'd love to have a guy like Otto Porter Jr. We've got a nice package of players moving forward...we've seen Wall/Beal/Webster/Okafor/Nene/Ariza/Seraphin/Temple play as a solid core. On the short term, I'd like to add some scoring (front court or back court) and in the long term we need to find a young big man. I don't see Booker, Vesely, Price, as contributors in the future.

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