The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Going Commando]

So we have to wait till after 2016, then. That sucks. guaranteed contracts seem even stupider to me now. Can we in theory resign Webster knowing it will put us over the luxury tax next year? This site shows a serious drop with Ariza and okafor gone after 2014.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/washington.htm

The salary cap is probably going to be about 58 million or so for next season. It's extremely probably we're already over the cap next year. That means we have to use cap exceptions to sign new contracts. The only exceptions available to us to sign Martell specifically are the minimum contract exception (which he would not accept) and the Mid Level Exception, which might do it.

I think we're going to have to use the full MLE which is about 5 and a half to just under 6 million up to four years with built in annual raises. I think he probably deserves the full MLE, maybe deserves more. But his options are going to be limited:

1.) He's not one of the top guys at his position on the market this summer. He's been great for us, having the best year of his career by far. But he's still just having a 13.8 PER season. There are going to be a lot of three point shooting wings out there that will cost as much as him, if not less.

2.) Not a lot of teams have a lot of money to spend this summer. Few are going to be under the cap, so the best Martell might be able to do is a full MLE offer.

There are a few things working in our favor:

1.) We clearly offer an ideal situation for Martell. He's literally never been a better player than he has for us.

2.) We can offer him a starter's job. And he knows he fits in here with the guys and is at home here.

3.) We can offer the full MLE for sure. He can't get that from any teams that paid luxury tax this year (which is most of the "contenders").

I think bringing Martell back is a no-brainer for both sides and we should be able to offer him a good deal. I'm confident we can bring him back.

Some other things to consider:

- If Ariza doesn't pick up his player option, we'll be under the cap and probably be able to offer Martell more than the full MLE if need be. I think Ariza would be crazy to walk away from 7.5 million dollars though, I doubt he does that.

- Okafor as an ETO on his contract I believe. That might give us a way to get out of his deal this summer without trading him. But getting rid of Okafor this year creates a big whole in the front court. You've got to find an immediate starting 5 if you buy him out.

A.) Move Nene to the 5 and pray he stays healthy + find a new starting 4.

B.) Find a bargain starting 5 in FA...

C.) Draft a kid that can immediately start at the 5...

Those options range from bad to worse to worst IMO. We'd probably take a step back next season. The defense and the rebounding certainly would. I think maybe, maybe Zeller could start at C beginning next season. I think Nerlens might be able to start at C by January or February next season when his leg is healed. Neither would be as good as Okafor next season though. And they would need to be available to us in the draft and, ideally, the BPA. So dumping Okafor for a rookie draft pick is a prayer, not a strong team building strategy for a team looking to make the playoffs next season.

I think hoping for a cheap vet starting C in FA is also a prayer. It's not unheard of, Portland salvaged JJ Hickson this year. But it's unlikely, and we're not a great FA destination obviously. Relying on Nene as our only credible big man is also a huge risk, and replacing him with a good starting PF in FA or the draft for cheap wouldn't be much easier than finding a true C via the same methods.

The other options out there for us involve trades. We could theoretically replace Okafor with a cheaper starting C with an opportunistic trade then use the savings to keep Martell and sign other pieces. DeMarcus Cousins. But you obviously have to find someone willing to accept your trade, which is hard. And you have to give up something of value to get something valuable in return. And DeMarcus Cousins is a fairly serious risk depending on what you have to give up to get him.

In an ideal world, we'd be able to just resign Martell with the MLE. If not, we've got some really hard choices to make.

[Skin'emAlive]

I agree, moving Okafor would be disastrous in the short term. Heck, i would be ok if we signed him for another 3 years. Dude is solid. I personally would try to move Nene before he completely falls apart. Ariza will not be going anywhere. He isnt losing that 7.5 mil, even if it means he is coming back as a backup.

[SiCkSoULjA]

http://i.minus.com/isM40fQ8tklbq.gif

That's elevation

He was prepared to block Dragic if he shot it instantly, hung in the air and still emphatically blocked it after Dragic adjusted.

That block was sweet. John Wall has been absolutley balling the past few games, he has these moments where he teases us and play like a top 5 point guard then he haves stretches where he struggles for weeks. How good Wall is going too be through out his career is up too him.

[Destino]

The wizards have $57,065,517 committed for next season and the following players are UFAs:

Martell Webster

Jason Collins

Leandro Barbosa

Cartier Martin

A.J. Price

Garrett Temple

The NBA cap is nightmare to figure out though because of all the exceptions. Can someone explain to me the difference between the cap and the tax threshold? What significance does the cap number have if the tax really starts at the threshold?

For example the tax this season was $58.044 million. The tax however doesn't start until teams go over the tax threshold of $70.307 million. So what is the significance of the 58.044 number?

Edited March 17, 2013 by Destino

[Going Commando]

The wizards have $57,065,517 committed for next season and the following players are UFAs:

Martell Webster

Jason Collins

Leandro Barbosa

Cartier Martin

A.J. Price

Garrett Temple

The NBA cap is nightmare to figure out though because of all the exceptions. Can someone explain to me the difference between the cap and the tax threshold? What significance does the cap number have if the tax really starts at the threshold?

For example the tax this season was $58.044 million. The tax however doesn't start until teams go over the tax threshold of $70.307 million. So what is the significance of the 58.044 number?

58 million is the soft cap. 70 million is the tax threshold. The hard cap is somewhere in the 90 million range IIRC.

The significance of the soft cap is that you can't sign any new contracts that put you over the soft cap unless you use a cap exception. The exceptions are limited by situation and are usually strictly structured. For example, the full Mid Level Exception has been something like ~ 5.7 million annually up to four years with certain built in raises. You can divide that 5.7 million up between multiple players, but then those contracts can't exceed the full MLE threshold. And teams can only use the MLE once per season. And teams that paid luxury tax the previous season don't get to use the full MLE, it's something like half that threshold.

The MLE was designed so that teams over the cap can get one decent vet FA every year but they can't go buck wild with their spending. Just a mid level guy, hence the name.

There are other cap exceptions of note:

- Rookie contract exception, teams can sign their draft picks to rookie scale deals even if they're over the cap. We'll be using this for our draft picks this year most likely. It's so teams can actually keep their draft picks.

- Minimum contract exception (Non bird rights vet exception), you can fill out your roster with min contract players even if you're over the cap. The min deal is set according to a formula and depends on seasons of veterancy I believe but they're usually ~800K a season. You're not going to get any difference makers with this exception most likely. Just Garrett Temples to fill out the roster so you can always have enough bodies to play.

- Bird Rights and Partial Bird Rights exceptions. This exception was designed so teams could keep their own core players. A team can sign any player that they've got Bird Rights for, up to a max contract, even if they're over the cap or the deal would put them over. This exception is designed for teams to keep their own crucial guys. You get full Bird rights on a player if he's with your team for three years. You get Partial Bird rights if he's with you for two years. Partial Bird deals are more limited than full Bird deals IIRC. I don't think you can sign guys to max contracts with just partial rights.

Now there are some notable features of Bird Rights. First, it doesn't have to be three years on one contract. It can be that you had him for one year then re-signed him to two more one year deals in a row or a two year deal after the first year. They just have to be three consecutive full years and you can't have waived him at any point.

Second, Bird rights can be transferred through trades. Say you trade for a player that's on year three of a three year contract that he signed with some previous team. His Bird rights come with him in trade. So when his deal is up that summer and he becomes a FA, you can use the Bird rights exception to sign him up to a max deal even if you are over the cap or the deal would put you over the cap.

So we will have full Bird Rights on both Okafor and Ariza even though we just got them this year. This summer Ariza is entering the final year of a five year deal he signed with Houston back in 2009 and Okafor is entering the final year of a six year deal he signed with Charlotte back in 2008. We'll have full Bird rights on all of our first round draft picks that we've made because their rookie deals extend beyond the three year threshold. And we'll have full Bird rights on Nene when his contract is over.

But, notably, we have neither full nor partial Bird rights on Martell because he signed a one year FA deal with us last summer.

There are some other more obscure cap exceptions out there like the disabled player exception and the traded player exception, etc. Pretty sure those aren't a factor for us this summer.

And finally, it bears mentioning that if you're far enough under the soft cap, you can sign any player to any kind of deal structured in any way up to the max that you want. That's the value of having cap space beneath the soft cap.

There are limitations though. That's what max deal means. Following the 2011 CBA, teams can only sign players for a maximum of four years. There are two exceptions that each team gets to use though, they can add a fifth year on the contract for two of their own players. This exception is designed for teams to be able to keep at least two of their star players. It helps them beat the offer of other teams by giving them a fifth year to dangle.

And the maximum amount of annual salary a player can earn is determined at three levels:

< 6 years of veterancy = 25% of the team's total cap (of 58 million) with set annual raises which I think are about 7% or so but I'm not sure. It comes out to about 13 or 14 million annually. AKA the rookie max.

6 to 9 years veterancy = 30% of the team's cap with set annual raises built in. ~ 17 or 18 million annually.

10+ years veterancy = 35% of the team's cap. Kobe's deal for example.

There's an exception to this (there's always an exception somewhere). Players who have less than six years of veterancy but who win an MVP or get named a starter on two All Star games or two All NBA teams are eligible for the 30% max deal. This is called the Derrick Rose Rule.

Basically we've only got two exceptions available to use on Martell if signing him puts us over the cap (which it will unless we shed salary this summer): the min contract exception (which won't be enough to get him) and the MLE. To keep him, we're going to have to shed a lot of salary to get far enough under the 58 million dollar soft cap that we can sign him. Or we're going to have to hope he signs for the MLE.

My instinct is that the MLE will do it. But I don't really know. That's just based on my speculation of what the market for SG/SFs is going to be like this summer and what Martell will want to do for the next stage of his career. My gut tells me that Martell will want to stay here if possible, assuming someone doesn't bowl him over with a giant contract offer. I think he'll want to keep playing for the team where he just had the best season of his career. And he could keep his starting job with us, that should carry weight. And I'd be surprised if teams offer him more than the MLE because there aren't a ton of teams out there with a lot of cap room that have openings/needs at SF. And there is a good amount of three point shooting wings out there almost every summer.

---------- Post added March-18th-2013 at 12:23 AM ----------

If Wall continues the level of play he's achieved the past four games, I'm 100% positive he's going to cost the rookie max to extend. And we'd be thrilled to pay it to him.

- He'll be an RFA the summer after this one. At his current level of play, every team in the league with room for a max deal and a need at PG would offer him the max etension. But we have the right to match any contract. So basically, Wall isn't going anywhere as long as we want him.

- I think there's a decent chance we might negotiate with Wall this summer, a year before he hits the FA market. This is what Houston did with Harden, Denver did with Lawson, GS did with Curry, and Boston did with Rondo for example. Pretty sure OKC did it with both Durant and Westbrook too.

- Wall will almost certainly get one of our two 5 year deals. The way it's shaping up, Beal will probably get the other one when his rookie deal is over.

- The most Wall can cost is the 25% max contract of about 14 million a year. The ONLY way he can cost more is if he wins the MVP next year. There is no way for him to get two All NBA selections or start two AS games since he did not/will not receive those honors this season and didn't his first two years either. So if Wall wins an MVP next season, we'll have to pay him 18 million a year. But if Wall wins an MVP next year, right in the heart of the LeBron/Durant era, then he would absolutely be worth whatever amount of money we'd be allowed to throw at him.

This is full on homer talk, but Wall could feasibly win an MVP next year if he put together an entire season at the level he and the rest of the team has played the past four games. He'd be at like a mid 20s PER and the team would win 70+% of its games. Wall would be powering the way as the sole star. That winning percentage would make us the #1 or #2 seed in the East. It'd be the same circumstances that led to Rose winning the MVP.

That's not going to happen though. Wall hasn't proven consistent enough to play at this level a whole year--he's had slumps for an entire month practically in each of his seasons. We're also the Wizards and we're not as good as the Bulls were in 2010/2011. We've got some good players though. Especially if we keep Webster. And the East is not that great.

What's fun is that, after watching John the past four games, we can break out the Kool-Aid again and visualize Wall playing like a Superstar.

[Skin'emAlive]

Wall is not winning the MVP while Lebron and Durant are still dominating. Doesnt matter how good he plays.

Secondly... we need to make the playoffs for him to even be considered part of any all-anything.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Skin'emAlive

[StillUnknown]

http://washingtonexaminer.com/martell-webster-lights-up-suns/article/2524563

The Wizards will embark on a four-game road trip and play 11 of their final 17 games away from the District. But Webster's performance had John Wall (17 points, 11 assists, three steals) looking ahead to the summer, when his teammate, who is averaging a career-high 11.2 points per games and is the second-leading 3-point shooter in the NBA (45.3 percent), will once again be a free agent.

"I already talked to [Wizards owner] Ted [Leonsis] about that one," Wall said. "That's an easy hands down question about trying to get him back here because him being a free agent. There's a lot of people that are going to come after him, especially after the season he had this year and is having."

In the meantime, Webster put himself in the Wizards record book with at least four 3-pointer for the fifth game in a row.

"I would love to be here next year," Webster said. "But this is a business, and we'll see what happens. I'm having an extraordinary time here. The city is great, the fans are great, and my teammates are awesome, freakin' awesome, really freakin' awesome."

So whats the max you pay Webster?

He is universally loved and everybody wants him back, but bad teams don't get good by overpaying guys like Webster

[nuposse87]

i think the most we can offer is the MLE, which is probably ok by me...It is also kind of helps in negotiating since he knows that is high as we can possibly go anyways.

[Going Commando]

The max I'd pay is the full MLE.

[Hersh]

http://washingtonexaminer.com/martell-webster-lights-up-suns/article/2524563

So whats the max you pay Webster?

He is universally loved and everybody wants him back, but bad teams don't get good by overpaying guys like Webster

I don't think he's in a Wizards uniform next year. It's great he's having a career year and he's still young, but this team needs to keep maximum cap space available come 2014 off-season. Plus, how good is he really? A big time 14.23 PER isn't so great and this team doesn't need to keep players around in an attempt to keep any other player happy.

[StillUnknown]

I don't think he's in a Wizards uniform next year. It's great he's having a career year and he's still young, but this team needs to keep maximum cap space available come 2014 off-season. Plus, how good is he really? A big time 14.23 PER isn't so great and this team doesn't need to keep players around in an attempt to keep any other player happy.

The bolded part is how we got stuck with Wittman.

[Destino]

58 million is the soft cap. 70 million is the tax threshold. The hard cap is somewhere in the 90 million range IIRC.

Thanks for the explanations, I'm not going to mess the exemptions because frankly, I just don't want to. Here is where the Wizards stand if they resign Martin, Price, and Temple at min contracts, they sign the 4th overall pick, and Martel Webster gets the full 5 million MLE:

Emeka Okafor - 14,487,500

Nene Hilario - 13,000,000

Trevor Ariza - 7,727,280

John Wall - 7,459,924

Martell Webster - 5,000,000

Bradley Beal - 4,319,280

Jan Vesely - 3,340,920

4th Overall Pick 3,214,200

Kevin Seraphin - 2,761,113

Trevor Booker - 2,350,820

Chris Singleton - 1,618,680

Cartier Martin - 1,106,942

A.J. Price - 1,027,424

Garrett Temple - 947,907

Total - 68,361,990

The team would need to add one player to reach a 15 man roster.

If Wall continues the level of play he's achieved the past four games, I'm 100% positive he's going to cost the rookie max to extend. And we'd be thrilled to pay it to him.

- He'll be an RFA the summer after this one. At his current level of play, every team in the league with room for a max deal and a need at PG would offer him the max etension. But we have the right to match any contract. So basically, Wall isn't going anywhere as long as we want him.

If he continues at his current level he's a max player. An efficient 20ppg, 7+apg, and less than 3.5 turnovers a game is a max point guard. He'd have to show that he can sustain that level of play or a season.

- I think there's a decent chance we might negotiate with Wall this summer, a year before he hits the FA market. This is what Houston did with Harden, Denver did with Lawson, GS did with Curry, and Boston did with Rondo for example. Pretty sure OKC did it with both Durant and Westbrook too.

There is a chance but I think the smart money is to see if he plays his way out of a max deal. A weeks worth of games doesn't discount a few months. He's got to be able to sustain a high level of play over a long period of time.

- Wall will almost certainly get one of our two 5 year deals. The way it's shaping up, Beal will probably get the other one when his rookie deal is over.

If Beal has a long way to go before he earns a max deal. Wall is showing that he can put up points and assists on his own. Beal has to show that he can AVERAGE 20ppg or greater and do at least some of that without requiring an assist in order to command a 5 year max deal. SG's have to be elite scorers typically to command max contracts and that requires elite level shot creation because players aren't going to sustain 21ppg if their scoring is too dependent on assists. He hasn't averaged 20ppg this season in any month despite several eyebrow raising games. Sustaining high level production is not easy.

I think the team needs to add a big in the draft this year. Bennett or Len are the most realistic options. I think Noel and Zeller go top three. I'd be fine with either, both have a mid range jump shot which we've seen Randy like to use but with Okafor and Nene struggling to hit it consistently he's been unable to do so. That shot is a killer with Wall Webster and Beal creating so much space.

---------- Post added March-18th-2013 at 12:49 PM ----------

I don't think he's in a Wizards uniform next year. It's great he's having a career year and he's still young, but this team needs to keep maximum cap space available come 2014 off-season. Plus, how good is he really? A big time 14.23 PER isn't so great and this team doesn't need to keep players around in an attempt to keep any other player happy.

Cap flexibility shouldn't be a problem in 2014-15 being that the Wizards currently have ONE player they have to pay that season. All players other than Nene either become RFAs, UFAs, or are a club option. Obviously the team will add some names to that list this off season, our draft pick for instance, but the point is the Wizards don't have a lot of committed money that off season yet. I think Randy Wittman and Ernie Grunfeld expire as well. It looks like Ted Leonsis built in a nuclear option for himself.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Destino

[Going Commando]

John's FG % made a huge jump after last week. He's now shooting .443 on the season and his PER jumped from in the 16s to 18.6. His efficiency last week was massive.

This has been a rough year for him because of the injury and his limited minutes early on. But if you look at his per minute metrics rather than per game, he's shown marked improvement so far this season. He's also gotten steadily better each year according to his numbers.

His PER has climbed a little every year. As have his win shares / 48. His FG% and FT% has too. His Assists & Points / 36 has risen each season as well. And his Drtg has gotten better each season and he's got a 102 right now which is already very good for a young PG. His usage rating and FGA / 36 have also climbed but they're still at relatively low numbers for a star player. He's only at 12.9 FGA per game but he's at just over 15 FGA / 36 this year which is a good number for him to be at IMO. I want to see both him and Beal settling in somewhere North of 15 FGA per game in the future.

[Destino]

John's FG % made a huge jump after last week. He's now shooting .443 on the season and his PER jumped from in the 16s to 18.6. His efficiency last week was massive.

This has been a rough year for him because of the injury and his limited minutes early on. But if you look at his per minute metrics rather than per game, he's shown marked improvement so far this season. He's also gotten steadily better each year according to his numbers.

His PER has climbed a little every year. As have his win shares / 48. His FG% and FT% has too. His Assists & Points / 36 has risen each season as well. And his Drtg has gotten better each season and he's got a 102 right now which is already very good for a young PG. His usage rating and FGA / 36 have also climbed but they're still at relatively low numbers for a star player. He's only at 12.9 FGA per game but he's at just over 15 FGA / 36 this year which is a good number for him to be at IMO. I want to see both him and Beal settling in somewhere North of 15 FGA per game in the future.

I think it's more about the tools than the numbers for John Wall. His issue hasn't been shot selection as it's been simply that he's too limited in how he can score. Until about a week ago John wall had to get to the rim or the foul line and that was essentially all he could do. If he can develop his midrange jumpshot into something he can hit consistently while contested in the typical NBA fashion (late hand in the face) his scoring will greatly increase in effectiveness. Eventually he could turn that into a pull up jump shot similar to the one Westbrook uses to absolutely demoralize teams that lack anyone that can match his speed.

The other thing Wall needs to do is embrace the realities of what he is and what he isn't. He thinks his handles are better than they really are and he gets in trouble when he tries to get fancy. He's not the ball handler that Irving is and in truth he's not even close. Wall still dribbles the ball too high and he loses his dribble and gets up into the air when he shouldn't. He's getting less out of his talent than he should be because of these mental issues. This is not to say that he doesn't have his own advantages, he does. He's faster to the rim than Irving will ever be and he's better at getting to the foul line because he beats defenders to spots on the floor and forces the issue. This stuff comes with experience if players are humble and smart enough to identify it, accept it, and work to improve it. Wall doesn't lack intelligence but I think he's lack humility in the past and this season has been a learning experience for him. He's likely never been questioned as harshly as he was this season and he seems to have taken well. If he can improve these aspects of his game he'll be better in the post season, if he ever sees it, and he'll have a longer career.

He has everything he needs to be a dominant player and I will be rooting for him to succeed. The wizards are due dammit and Wall turning into a star is the shortest path to a much improved team.

[Going Commando]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/226772/Wall-Aldridge-Named-NBA-Players-Of-The-Week

Wall got POTW. First time in his career and first time a Wizard has done it since Antawn in 2008.

According to the article, Wall is the first player ever to have a four game stretch posting these incredibly specific but amazing stats:

- 24+ PPG

- 11+ APG

- 5+ RPG

- 2+ SPG

- .600+ from FG

- .800+ from 3

- .850+ from FT line.

I'm betting Larry Bird has come close to that before but the very high APG is probably the stat the rules him out.

The .800 3 pt % isn't as impressive as it sounds since he only made 4 and 1 3PM a game isn't that special. Though it's admittedly good for a non three shooter like Wall.

[StillUnknown]

Must win game tonight

We cannot lose a season series to this version of the Bobcats :twitch:

---------- Post added March-18th-2013 at 07:16 PM ----------

That arena in a Charlotte is a ghost town.

[mmzznnxx]

We look hideous right now.

Damn, that Booker screen.

Edited March 18, 2013 by mmzznnxx

[Destino]

We look hideous right now.

Damn, that Booker screen.

Booker is a solid dude, he didnt even rock from the contact.

[MonkFan8]

4 point play for Wall. I think I just fainted.

[Destino]

Of all the people to torch us... Pargo? Noooooo

---------- Post added March-18th-2013 at 07:52 PM ----------

Both teams are shooting 60%. Allstar game minus all of the allstars.

[StillUnknown]

Where the hell is our defense?

63 points in 24 minutes by the Charlotte Bobcats.

[MonkFan8]

Nene is having a beastly game. Triple double a real possibility.

---------- Post added March-18th-2013 at 08:45 PM ----------

Booker needs to hang his head in shame after that.

[StillUnknown]

Oh my damn, that Gerald Henderson block was amazing.

[mmzznnxx]

If we actually lose the season series to the Bobcats I won't be satisfied unless I see the Wizards and the front office personally doing construction on the highway or curing sick puppies or something. They'll probably just be big dumb jerks and lose though.

[StillUnknown]

That block changed the entire momentum of the game.