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Will Venezuela invade Guyana, and what should we do

Riggo-toni

By Riggo-toni
in The Tailgate

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Bang

Bang

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, tshile said:

I’m not seeing why we’re really supposed to care?

 

If the argument is sanctions for violating international law - fine, that makes sense. The idea of trying to prevent it? I’m not seeing why we’re supposed to care. 

I feel much the same way.
Not everything is our business, unless we're going to fall on the Monroe doctrine.

 

~Bang

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
Just now, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

Oil.

See - that’s fine. 
 

Id prefer we not bother, but I can work with honesty. 
 

It’s the feigning concern about a nation no one gives a **** about in a world full of conflicts we don’t involve ourselves in (or even know about 😂) that irritates me 
 

 

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Larry

Larry

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, tshile said:

I’m not seeing why we’re really supposed to care?

 

Same reason we cared when Saddam invaded Kuwait?  Or when Russia invaded Ukraine?  

 

Me, I could see us having a legitimate interest in pushing the rule that, no, invading and conquering other countries isn't acceptable*. 

 

* unless you're Israel. 

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PeterMP

PeterMP

Posted
Posted

There is the oil component.  And really for any global commodity, the more people that control it pretty much the better for us.  And really the world.  It creates more of a free market.

 

Just from wikipeida, they do at least appear to be trying to be a democracy.

 

And saying that you can't invade another country, especially just because they have something that you want, has value in terms of global stability  Which helps us.

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Same reason we cared when Saddam invaded Kuwait?  Or when Russia invaded Ukraine?  

 

Me, I could see us having a legitimate interest in pushing the rule that, no, invading and conquering other countries isn't acceptable*. 

 

* unless you're Israel. 


well Russia is a major power we’re generally at odds with. I don’t recall anyone giving a crap about Ukraine and I recall a lot of people not wanting to get involved when it first started. Biden took some flack for it and continues to take flack for it from some people. Opinions have changed as it became clear Ukraine was willing to fight, and Biden was able to rally global support to sanction Russia (but otherwise not get involved)
 

Also seems getting involved in the Middle East has helped push the desire to stop getting involved everywhere. The oil production market is totally different than it was back then too. 
 

and side from your snark using bad examples, it’d have more meaning if it weren’t for all the other conflicts around the world we don’t get involved in and no one’s really clamoring for us to get involved in…

Edited by tshile
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NickyJ

NickyJ

Posted
Posted (edited)

Saddam invading Kuwait was oil. Ukraine actually has an army of its own, so as long as they're willing to fight, I'm fine with giving them the means to do so. Guyanna has 11,600 people in their military according to Wikipedia. They are armed with pickup trucks, 5 armored cars, WW2 weapons, AKs, M16s, and 24 1960s Soviet shoulder mounted rocket launchers. If they bring their best tactical minds together, they might be able to hold out against a Mexican drug cartel for a few weeks.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana_Defence_Force

Edited by NickyJ
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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

And saying that you can't invade another country, especially just because they have something that you want, has value in terms of global stability  Which helps us.

Sure but it also requires ignoring a long history of groups fighting over resources. 
 

The idea it can all be stopped if we just work together seems silly. Borders will continue to change, groups will go in and out of power, resources will be fought over. 
 

The only real change that seems to have happened is countries with nukes are treated differently. And even then we watched Russia invade a country and threaten nukes so its not totally clear what that change actually is or how long it’ll last. 

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Riggo-toni

Riggo-toni

Posted
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Posted

Simple cost benefit analysis - if a minor show of force can successfully deter a potential invasion, this avoids sanctions on Venezuela which as a consequence would gain hold over an even greater supply of oil and inevitably cause another spike in prices.  I don't honestly give a damn if Maduro holds fair elections in his own country (spoiler: he won't). I think it was stupid for Trump to impose sanctions on Venezuela in the first place just because he didn't like their internal politics. If he takes over Guyana, then he nearly doubles the reserves of a country hostile to western countries.

Venezuela is close to a failed state, so if it is made evident to Maduro an invasion would have devastating costs, he is unlikely to undertake such an action, similar to US showing forces in Taiwan.

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PeterMP

PeterMP

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tshile said:

Sure but it also requires ignoring a long history of groups fighting over resources. 
 

The idea it can all be stopped if we just work together seems silly. Borders will continue to change, groups will go in and out of power, resources will be fought over. 
 

The only real change that seems to have happened is countries with nukes are treated differently. And even then we watched Russia invade a country and threaten nukes so its not totally clear what that change actually is or how long it’ll last. 

 

It doesn't require me to ignore it or suggest that I think we can all work together.

 

Very simply, if we essentially act as a insurer of the security for a country like Guyana the chances of a country like Venezuela invading them goes way down.

 

@Riggo-toni has it right (to my knowledge IMO).  A few people on the ground, some ships in the area, and some equipment transfer might completely prevent this.

 

That ends up with Guyana with oil, us not being mad after the fact with Venezuela, and at least diminishes every other little country in the world from being afraid we'll just sit by if a larger (but not very powerful) country is going to gobble them up (which helps with things like preventing nuclear proliferation).

 

The downside is that Venezuela attacks anyway and we'll already have had to announce our intentions so, we'll be pulled into another war.

 

I have no idea of how much intelligence we have on Venezuela and how committed they are to this.  But if you go back to the Iraq/Kuwait war, there's little doubt we could have prevented the whole thing by telling Saddam to knock it off before he invaded.

 

(If anything, I'm a little afraid we're too late if they've already had this referendum.  We should have started moving before that.  Depending how much face they feel the lose by not acting after the referendum, might influence how much they are likely to act.  But with no intelligence/information knowing what to do is hard.

 

My guess would be the chances for the downside are very small.  But I don't know that.)

Edited by PeterMP
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Destino

Destino

Posted
Posted

You guys might not be aware of this, but Venezuelan immigrants are all over South America. Many nations are experiencing an uptick in illegal immigrants as people flee the socialist paradise Maduro has created. It’s possible that he’s desperate. This invasion provides two things. It unifies his people behind a common cause, and a winnable cause. Like taking candy from a baby if no one intervenes. If successful, it provides a new pile of money. It’s a familiar narrative for tyrants. 

 

timing is bad for the US too, which I suspect Venezuela may be counting on. How many conflicts can the US support at once?

 

oh and of course…

 

Quote

BOGOTA/HOUSTON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Venezuela on Wednesday arrested an opposition member for alleged treason, after the attorney general said earlier there are arrest warrants out for several people connected to the campaign of opposition presidential nominee Maria Corina Machado for crimes including treason.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-venezuela-arrests-opposition-figure-024504222.html

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Destino

Destino

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

Assassinating a head of state is illegal under US law - it became law after worries that the JFK assassination was payback for the myriad of failed attempts on Castro.

Yeah we can’t just kill him. Maybe we could send a drone with a claw game attachment, snatch him right off stage, and drop him off in Guyana. 

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PeterMP

PeterMP

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

Assassinating a head of state is illegal under US law - it became law after worries that the JFK assassination was payback for the myriad of failed attempts on Castro.

 

I believe it was an executive order that was put in place under the Carter administration. Ford signed one making political ones illegal.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_12036#:~:text=Executive Order 12036 is a,indirect U.S. involvement in assassinations.

 

 

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, PokerPacker said:

Why are assassinations of leaders so out of fashion?  Seems so much better than sending thousands of young people who have no quarrel with each other to their deaths.


why did the people that run countries agree it’s not cool to kill people that run countries and instead let thousands of young people duke it out and see who has the strongest/best young people?

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