Will Venezuela invade Guyana, and what should we do

[Riggo-toni]

I didn't see a thread on this, but Venezuela held a sham referendum over whether they should take over the western 2/3 of Guyana and annex it.  Guyana has discovered massive oil reserves offshore and is rapidly becoming fairly wealthy on a per capita basis, but it has a population of less than a million and no real army to defend itself against an invasion. 

 

Here's some background

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article282650633.html

In what was declared as an existential threat by Guyana, the Caracas socialist regime held the five-question referendum asking Venezuelans if they were in favor of creating a new state to be called Guayana Esequiba, in what would amount to adding to the Venezuelan map about three quarters of the land occupied by Guyana.

[Renegade7]

Yikes...can't save every country from being invaded, especially if we working out a deal to buy oil from the invading country and they doing it to get more oil...good luck getting so much as a finger wag from us on that one...

[Destino]

The US should send a message that if Venezuela agrees that conquest is once again acceptable, and is willing to say so publicly, the US will not stop the invasion Guyana. They should then float and invasion force just outside of Venezuelan waters. 
 

choice is theirs. 

[tshile]

Weren’t we starting to normalize relations with them? 

[bearrock]

Feels like Security Council has to hand down crippling sanctions if Venezuela does that.  ICJ just issued an injunction not long ago pending final resolution over tye territory dispute.  If UN does nothing, might as well close shop on the international courts (may not make much of a real difference quite frankly).

 

Some experts were thinking Maduro is just sabre rattling to drum up support before next year's election (though I thought elections were a sham in Venezuela anyway).

[Riggo-toni]

Personally I would rather negotiate boots on the ground and weapons transfer before any invasion can take place as a preventive measure/deterrent.  Re-applying sanctions on Venezuela after an invasion would hurt the world economy and would be unlikely to persuade Venezuela to back out after it's already gone in.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

It sure seems like the not-western civilization is winning. The west is too worried about internal politics to make any big world-order maintaining moves. So the world order is being chipped away piece by piece.

 

This is just another chip.

Edited December 7, 2023 by CousinsCowgirl84

[TheGreatBuzz]

Open up a base there in exchange for discounts on their new found oil stock.

 

FAFO

[Renegade7]

Isn't Guyana one of the most underdeveloped countries on earth?

 

I'm trying to find the YouTube video I watched  while ago, but there are parts of the country that aren't even connected to each other, it's almost entirely jungle that jus realized how much oil they have.

 

It wouldn't be going down their to give folks back their country, it'd be giving them back their jungle.  I thought we learned our lesson on nation building?

 

Unfortunately this feels very much like sometimes the bug sometimes the windshield...

[CousinsCowgirl84]

22 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Open up a base there in exchange for discounts on their new found oil stock.

 

FAFO

Was thinking this same thing but held back….

5 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Isn't Guyana one of the most underdeveloped countries on earth?

 

I'm trying to find the YouTube video I watched  while ago, but there are parts of the country that aren't even connected to each other, it's almost entirely jungle that jus realized how much oil they have.

 

It wouldn't be going down their to give folks back their country, it'd be giving them back their jungle.  I thought we learned our lesson on nation building?

 

Unfortunately this feels very much like sometimes the bug sometimes the windshield...

They are, but the newly found oil deposits were beginning to bring in foreign investment which would have helped develop the country…

[Renegade7]

7 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

They are, but the newly found oil deposits were beginning to bring in foreign investment which would have helped develop the country…

 

Like Dubai in the UAE?  Seen the rest of that country?

[mcsluggo]

Gross national income per capita (GNIPC, the stat that the World Bak uses to characterize countries as low-income, lower-middle-income, upper middle income, or high-income) shot up by over 40-percent last year.   yes...in a single year.   pushing guyana into high-income classification (in the neighborhood with chile, uruguay and estonia) but the distribution of income is obviously not well-spread from growth that fast, and the country is far from an advanced economy, and lacks basic social  infrastructure.  Guyana is the only high-income country that still has access to IDA financing (the world bank's most concessional sovereign loans program), not even on blended terms.   

the country is the beverly hillbilies right now... they have lots of money flowing suddenly, but they don;t yet know hw to spend it to make the country a better place. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

10 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Like Dubai in the UAE?  Seen the rest of that country?

Yea. I’m not sure what your point is… it’s not like Venezuela takes care of its people. The only real difference is that Venezuela is openly hostile towards the United States and Venezuela is not. Is rather have the oil in the hands of someone who will work with us.

[Renegade7]

3 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Yea. I’m not sure what your point is… it’s not like Venezuela takes care of its people. The only real difference is that Venezuela is openly hostile towards the United States and Venezuela is not. Is rather have the oil in the hands of someone who will work with us.

 

This isn't to defend Venezula at all, jus if we get involved what are we fighting for?

 

Dubai is a notorious example of how outsiders and a select few insiders were got the best of that oil money and the rest of the country is still basically a third world wasteland.  There's no indication from a planning stand point Guyana was about to be anything different, they looked lost with what to do with their new found wealth, ripe for someone to take cold blood advantage of them.

 

And the real problem here is Venezula is working with us now as we're working with them in part to get their oil back in the US amd global market to help stablize oil prices.  This is the price of who you do business with, we get in the middle of this it undoes our work to potentially get Maduro to leave power willingly and a chance to stabilize Venezuela.

 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[Cooked Crack]

12 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

And the real problem here is Venezula is working with us now as we're working with them in part to get their oil back in the US amd global market to help stablize oil prices

Doesn't seem like they're holding up to their end of the bargain when it comes to actually allowing legitimate elections. Maduro seems more interested in attacking a neighbor than seeing his power reduce.

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, Cooked Crack said:

Doesn't seem like they're holding up to their end of the bargain when it comes to actually allowing legitimate elections. Maduro seems more interested in attacking a neighbor than seeing his power reduce.

 

Last I checked presidential elections still on track for next year, but yes, there's going to be concerns along the way:

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/venezuelas-government-and-opposition-agree-on-appeal-process-for-candidates-banned-from-running

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

This isn't to defend Venezula at all, jus if we get involved what are we fighting for?

 

Dubai is a notorious example of how outsiders and a select few insiders were got the best of that oil money and the rest of the country is still basically a third world wasteland.  There's no indication from a planning stand point Guyana was about to be anything different, they looked lost with what to do with their new found wealth, ripe for someone to take cold blood advantage of them.

 

And the real problem here is Venezula is working with us now as we're working with them in part to get their oil back in the US amd global market to help stablize oil prices.  This is the price of who you do business with, we get in the middle of this it undoes our work to potentially get Maduro to leave power willingly and a chance to stabilize Venezuela.

 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Well Exxon and Mobile are American companies that might stand the gain a nice slice the oil… Maduro isn’t going to leave power willingly because we talk nice to him. This is straight from the dictator playbook. 
 

Having countries hostile toward America in charge of the worlds oily supply is always against americas strategic interests so we have an interest in Venezuela loosing.

Edited December 7, 2023 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Renegade7]

4 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Well Exxon and Mobile are American companies that might stand the gain a nice slice the oil… Maduro isn’t going to leave power willingly because we talk nice to him. This is straight from the dictator playbook. 
 

Having countries hostile toward America in charge of the worlds oily supply is always against americas strategic interests so we have an interest in Venezuela loosing.

 

The only reason we are wnganging with Venezuela like this is on the condition of Maduro leaving power. 

 

So lets talk if their election falls through next year and he's still in charge in 2025.

 

Should be a pretty healthy topic of discussion during our own presidential debates if it goes down like that, won't want to give Biden benefit of the doubt he won't let himself get punked into not atesst getting a regime change out of all this.

[PeterMP]

12 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Like Dubai in the UAE?  Seen the rest of that country?

 

I know nothing about Guyana.  I couldn't even have told you it was a country before reading this post.

 

But to judge them and what they will do with their oil money based on what other people that have done a bad job have done.

 

Nobody in a certain situation wasn't to be judged based on the bad out comes from previous people in that situation, and it isn't fair.  Maybe Guyana will go the route of Dubai and the UAE.  Maybe the won't.

 

That can't be an important factor in what we do.

[Renegade7]

Just now, PeterMP said:

 

I know nothing about Guyana.  I couldn't even have told you it was a country before reading this post.

 

But to judge them and what they will do with their oil money based on what other people that have done a bad job have done.

 

Nobody in a certain situation wasn't to be judged based on the bad out comes from previous people in that situation, and it isn't fair.  Maybe Guyana will go the route of Dubai and the UAE.  Maybe the won't.

 

That can't be an important factor in what we do.

 

Even if you're right, I can't with a straight face say the right thing to do is blow up what we're trying to work out with Venezula to save Guyana.

 

Sometimes the right thing to do is not the right thing to do, unfortunately.  It's fair to call me out for rationalizing my way out of this one in this manner, but this isn't even like Ukraine where they could put up a fight if we sent them weapons they are so underdeveloped and lacking any sort of defense to support.

 

This is in context we struggling to get a new bill for Ukraine and shockingly even Israel right now.

[PleaseBlitz]

Seems like the USS Gerald Ford is in need of an extended refueling at a Guyana port. 

[Riggo-toni]

I was not suggesting nation building in Guyana, but rather providing them with enough military capacity to deter an invasion. An ounce of prevention.

Guyana's mess is mostly of its own doing from ethnic rivalries between blacks and (asian) Indians, but the US is partly responsible for interfering during the cold war and installing regimes viewed as anti-communist.  Whether or not Guyana succeeds in elevating the well being of its populace or if the benefits fall disproportionately on whichever ethnic group grabs power, any scenario in which we can prevent Venezuela from annexing 2/3 of its territory, especially if it can be done through deterrence rather than a military intervention, seems like a good idea.

[Renegade7]

14 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

I was not suggesting nation building in Guyana, but rather providing them with enough military capacity to deter an invasion. An ounce of prevention.

Guyana's mess is mostly of its own doing from ethnic rivalries between blacks and (asian) Indians, but the US is partly responsible for interfering during the cold war and installing regimes viewed as anti-communist.  Whether or not Guyana succeeds in elevating the well being of its populace or if the benefits fall disproportionately on whichever ethnic group grabs power, any scenario in which we can prevent Venezuela from annexing 2/3 of its territory, especially if it can be done through deterrence rather than a military intervention, seems like a good idea.

 

This feels hopeless if we keep buying oil from the country were giving them weapons to fight. 

 

Totally agree we are not innocent in how it got to this point, case can be made Maduro is trying to rally up internal support ahead of the election next year might lose otherwise.

 

This could also be all talk until they actually move troops into Guyana, I jus want to keep the conversation honest about whether our intervention will do anything but look good versus actually getting appropriate results.

 

It eventually comes back to what's more important potentially getting Maduro our of power so his replacement may backed Guyana or throw resources we might not have in fight that's potentially already overmatched?

 

Usually I'm not this pessimistic, but feeling forced to be pragmatic here.

[mcsluggo]

i can't believe we are 2-days and 25ish posts in without a single reference to Jim Jones or Kool-Aide... what is this world coming to?

 

 

 

[Riggo-toni]

That was French Guyana, which is a different country. Guyana is British Guyana post-independence.