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2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

Conn

By Conn
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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

He's a little bit better than Leno by AV.  He has 34 AV in 5 seasons, and no season that was a very high AV anomaly.  So basically he averages 7 AV, which roughly equals a slightly above average starter.  This is why I can't accept the prediction that the OL is going to be the same (or worse) than last year.  At minimum, we basically added another Leno while only losing Wes.  Roullier was never really a positive factor last season.

 

 

Good post but I think you are the only one I know who uses AV as a metric somewhat regularly.  For those that don't know what it is a web site called pro football reference which decided to rank players by factoring the overall unit's performance versus the player alone and factor that in the players grade.

 

So that in turn helps for example a lesser player in a good unit for example and punishes a good player as part of a bad unit.  Its the perfect stat to prop up Wylie.  The weak link on a strong unit should end up with stronger number than otherwise.  It would be like being the 5th starter in baseball, so so player, so so stats but you have Schertzer in his prime, Cole and Verlander in their prime in that same rotation.  If so the 5th starter will be credited to some extent for the studs ahead of them and will be graded above their stats. 

 

I get its different to compare baseball because the performances are isolated variables but its the best analogy I can think of to bring the point home.  

 

I like the stat in some context.  Mostly about grading a unit overall.  But I think its really misleading as an individual metric.

 

But to play along with the thought.  If we are riding with AV for Wylie.  Then you got to live and die with that same sword for everyone else.  You've touted that this interior O line likely will be fine.  Cosmi had a 3 AV, Gates had a 3 AV, S. Charles had a 2 AV.  That would translate to a train wreck this season if the AV was telling on that front.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

 ..I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."

 

Starters on good teams are, as a group, better than starters on bad teams. Starting WRs who had lots of receiving yards are, as a group, better than starting WRs who did not have many receiving yards. 

 

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MartinC

MartinC

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15 minutes ago, Conn said:


Vikings rookie WR Addison just got arrested for going like 144 mph on the highway. Can you imagine the arrogance and disregard for human life to do that for any reason? He gave some bull**** excuse that his dog was having an emergency at home. Okay. As if that would excuse anything. Some people are just selfish and incapable of seeing beyond a two minute window. I was in my early 20’s once, it’s not an excuse for **** like this. 

 
I enjoy driving and have a very fast sports car. When the mood takes me I head to the mountains and canyon roads and drive ‘enthusiastically’. I love speed and the sensation of driving a fast responsive car. 
 

But I keep it to the bounds of what’s reasonable and bear in mind where there are blind bends and possible oncoming traffic. I also bear in mind it’s not just me who can make a mistake it’s people around me. 
 

If I want to get close to the potential of the car I head to a race track. Let’s hope Davis learns a lesson. 

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ExoDus84

ExoDus84

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9 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 I enjoy driving and have a very fast sports car. When the mood takes me I head to the mountains and canyon roads and drive ‘enthusiastically’. I love speed and the sensation of driving a fast responsive car.

 

Plot twist:

 

Martin drives a high-mileage Prius, but put Cup 2 tires on it and a K&N air filter.

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zCommander

zCommander

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2 hours ago, Llevron said:

it is unbelievably easy to get reckless in VA. Not excusing him, just saying going over that bridge from MD to VA is like a whole other planet when it comes to traffic/Law enforcement 

 

I learned that the hard way when I use to commute to Sterling every day. If a cop doesn't show up in court the judge gives the cop a continuous. I was furious when that happened because in MD if a cop doesn't show up and you say not guilty the judge gives you the evil eye and says don't do it again and have a nice day with zero to pay. In MD this has happened to me 3 times. In VA the cops don't even listen to anything you have to say after being stopped. But, in MD a cop even thanked me for not running him over (he pulled me over by walking into my driving lane and signaled me to pullover, I think I was going 80+). Oh and he didn't show up either :D 

 

As for Davis yeah that was pretty stupid and not thinking it. A life was lost and he has to live with that though. 

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So that in turn helps for example a lesser player in a good unit for example and punishes a good player as part of a bad.  So its for example the perfect stat to prop up Wylie.  The weak link on a strong unit should end up with stronger number than otherwise.  It would be like being the 5th starter, so so player, so so stats but you have Schertzer in his prime, Cole and Verlander in their prime in that same rotation.  If so the 5th starter will be credited to some extent for the studs ahead of them.

 

That's not how the stat works.  It is a stat designed specifically to measure the individual contribution of a player within their offense.  So if their offense is good, the AV accumulated by the group as a whole will be high.  But it will be distributed the most to the guys who contributed the most to the units performance.  For example with the Chiefs, they are a high achievement offense.  But Mahomes and Orlando Brown Jr and Creed Humphrey and Travis Kelce are the ones getting all of the AV because they are the major contributors and win all of the awards.

 

It's actually much, much easier to get high AV totals for a season if you're the only good (sometimes not even good, but productive will do) player in a bad offense or defense.  Check out the AV totals for Taylor Heinicke and John Bostic when they were here to see what I mean.  Somebody's gotta produce in even the worst offense or defense in the league, and those guys get inflated AV totals.

 

AV starts losing it's meaning at the extremes.  4 AV isn't meaningfully different from 1 or 2 beyond probably that it means you were healthier and probably played more snaps, but it's all replacement level guys if you are talking about healthy seasons with steady availability.  Likewise everything over 13 or so means virtually the same thing: that they are one of the very best players in the league regardless of position, and the higher you climb from there means the player had a great season of large availability, or that they were the best player in a better offense or defense.  But a 13 AV player is probably in the same tier as a 17 AV player, the tier being All Pro caliber.

 

The vast majority of the league lives below 10 or 11 AV though, and you can definitely parse out differences in quality between say a 5 AV player in a healthy season, and a 7 or 8 AV player in a healthy season.  It's meaningful in the huge middle class of the league.

 

I like AV because it's the only comprehensive stat I've seen that attempts to quantify the individual contribution of every player within the context of their offense or defense.  Baseball and Basketball have a bunch of stats that do this, but nobody else has really tried doing it for football.  It's the quickest way to reference how well a player generally played in any given season, especially when you reference it against the snap count stats pfr tracks too.  And I think it has been promisingly reliable in assessing/projecting the quality of players who are regular starters.  For example, looking at AV was how I recognized that William Jackson was an overrated bum the off-season we signed him when places like PFF were lauding him as one of the best free agents in that market.

 

As far as the low AV totals of our linemen from last year, a lot of that is the product of their low snap counts.  You can't accumulate AV without playing, so when you only play 300 snaps like Charles, or 500 snaps like Cosmi, you will have low AV.  Give me 1100 snaps from Cosmi and he'll get me 6 or 7 AV, maybe more since it would likely mean he's healthy and not struggling on a bad leg for most of the year.  Also give me fewer line combos and he'll be better too, as anyone would since he wouldn't have to be making position switches as frequently.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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The other thing AV is good for us determining roster quality, by giving you a quick reference for how many good players a team has on their roster.  I was able to predict that the Bengals and Eagles were about to make big win total jumps based on how many guys they had on their roster coming off 7+ AV seasons.  If you understand that a 7 is a nice cutoff meaning good starter, then these rosters with 15 or more good starters on them were pretty easy to see coming, and with few exceptions, generally constituted the high seends in the playoff field.  And on the flip side when Houston only had three players hitting those marks, they were going to be in contention for the #1 pick.  Actually was able to come up with a cutoff of about 12 players being necessary to make the playoffs, or roughly at least half of your starters being good starting caliber or better in order to get in, and I don't remember many, if any, exceptions to that.

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

That's not how the stat works.  It is a stat designed specifically to measure the individual contribution of a player within their offense.  So if their offense is good, the AV accumulated by the group as a whole will be high.  But it will be distributed the most to the guys who contributed the most to the units performance.  For example with the Chiefs, they are a high achievement offense.  But Mahomes and Orlando Brown Jr and Creed Humphrey and Travis Kelce are the ones getting all of the AV because they are the major contributors and win all of the awards.

 

It's actually much, much easier to get high AV totals for a season if you're the only good (sometimes not even good, but productive will do) player in a bad offense or defense.  Check out the AV totals for Taylor Heinicke and John Bostic when they were here to see what I mean.  Somebody's gotta produce in even the worst offense or defense in the league, and those guys get inflated AV totals.

 

AV starts losing it's meaning at the extremes.  4 AV isn't meaningfully different from 1 or 2 beyond probably that it means you were healthier and probably played more snaps, but it's all replacement level guys if you are talking about healthy seasons with steady availability.  Likewise everything over 13 or so means virtually the same thing: that they are one of the very best players in the league regardless of position, and the higher you climb from there means the player had a great season of large availability, or that they were the best player in a better offense or defense.  But a 13 AV player is probably in the same tier as a 17 AV player, the tier being All Pro caliber.

 

The vast majority of the league lives below 10 or 11 AV though, and you can definitely parse out differences in quality between say a 5 AV player in a healthy season, and a 7 or 8 AV player in a healthy season.  It's meaningful in the huge middle class of the league.

 

I like AV because it's the only comprehensive stat I've seen that attempts to quantify the individual contribution of every player within the context of their offense or defense.  Baseball and Basketball have a bunch of stats that do this, but nobody else has really tried doing it for football.  It's the quickest way to reference how well a player generally played in any given season, especially when you reference it against the snap count stats pfr tracks too.  And I think it has been promisingly reliable in assessing/projecting the quality of players who are regular starters.  For example, looking at AV was how I recognized that William Jackson was an overrated bum the off-season we signed him when places like PFF were lauding him as one of the best free agents in that market.

 

As far as the low AV totals of our linemen from last year, a lot of that is the product of their low snap counts.  You can't accumulate AV without playing, so when you only play 300 snaps like Charles, or 500 snaps like Cosmi, you will have low AV.  Give me 1100 snaps from Cosmi and he'll get me 6 or 7 AV, maybe more since it would likely mean he's healthy and not struggling on a bad leg for most of the year.  Also give me fewer line combos and he'll be better too, as anyone would since he wouldn't have to be making position switches as frequently.

 

By their own explanation of the stat, they say they weigh the overall units performance in the grade of the player.   And ditto the reverse if the unit isn't good. 

 

They give an aggregate score to the unit and then divide the credit.  Your point is focus on how they divide the credit.  But still you got the overall grade spiking the wealth to distribute among everyone.

 

So if you got some great players the size of the pizza will then be bigger.  14 slices to dole out instead of the normal 8.  If its a bad unit, then lets say instead of 8 slices they distribute 6 and divide the wealth that way. 

 

The web site itself explaining the stat isn't shy about making the point that players will be graded up as being part of a good unit, and graded down for being part of a bad unit. 

 

Good example for me to bring it home, Kam Curl.  He would scream as a dude who wouldn't chart well with AV.  The secondary overall hasn't been that good -- Curl has been arguably the best of the lot for that unit.  But the overall wealth grade of the unit to divvy up won't be that high.  His score should be weighed down because tough luck if you are a good player on a bad unit.  That's indeed true to their scores.  He got a 4 last year.  He got a 4 the year before.   In 2021, he got the same AV score as William Jackson. 

 

The 2019 defense was bad.  Ranked 27. Daron Payne got a 5 AV.   Tough luck for him, etc.   If he were playing on the Ravens, i bet it would have been a 13.

 

As far as Cosmi, Gates, Paul weighted down because of lack of reps.   The point is they didn't contribute enough to get a high AV.  That speaks to their durabilty.  That's fine.  I'll run with that but if we are lionzing their metric shouldn't we also respect their take of weighing down players that way?

 

Gates played half a season and gets 3.  The one season he played in full he gets a 5.  That's not hot.  Cosmi with a 4 and a 3 in his career.  I grant the point that they weigh him down because of his durabilty.  But if we are going to celebrate that metric, shouldn't we factor that since they do?  that's what i mean by if you are going to live by that metric, I don't think you can be selective and just use it when it works in your favor. 

 

I am not a big AV guy as far as individual grades.  I do like it via showcasing overall units.  But i wanted to ride the AV train, i can argue down this O line pretty easily using their metrics.

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NoVaSkins21

NoVaSkins21

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No question Rivera and the FO are aware of the situation, but no official press release has come out about Davis.  It's easy for us to jump to conclusions and presume his release, but the team has yet to take action.  Right now it's probably a fluid situation.  Wait and see at this point.  

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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19 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

The other thing AV is good for us determining roster quality, by giving you a quick reference for how many good players a team has on their roster. 

 

I think its a good metric as I said as well to grade a unit.  I think its misleading to grade the players one by one especially the weak links in a good unit and the strong links in a bad unit. 

 

So for example i might not agree with how they distribute the scores player to player but I would agree with the overall score of the unit.  So i'd agree with them for example that the Washington secondary wasn't hot.  But I don't agree with them that Curl sucks.  Or Curl was just as bad as William Jackson in 2021.

 

But i agree it gives the vibe of the overall strength of a roster.  I don't think i've ever heard any football talking head, anaylist ever use the stat on air.   So if pro football reference wants that stat to take off, they got some work to do. :ols: 

 

But I do love that site overall.  I'd have no idea that the stat even existed if it weren't for me going frequently to that site for various reasons.

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Conn

Conn

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JAG with EB familiarity, good to have someone less important around to take dozens of preseason garbage time carries (assuming they see enough from someone like Rodriguez to not want to risk injury to him) 

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Always A Commander Never A Captain

Always A Commander Never A Captain

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1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

AV starts losing it's meaning at the extremes.  4 AV isn't meaningfully different from 1 or 2 beyond probably that it means you were healthier and probably played more snaps, but it's all replacement level guys if you are talking about healthy seasons with steady availability.

 

Unfortunately I'm positive it's not snaps, it's only games started. AV is meant to compare players contribution to overall team performance across multiple era's. So they can only use stats that were around back in 2010, 1990, 1970 etc.

 

They recently did a ton of work on tabulating unofficial sack numbers from before the NFL started officially counting it. I think they might have tweaked AV to account for sacks after they added 2 decades of sack totals to their database, but I'm not sure on that one. That said, I am positive that snap count is not inside the AV stat as most of that data is only recent history (compared to the NFL's existence).

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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Keim's latest podcast just now

 

A.  While he doesn't think they've done a hot job upgrading some units like the O line, he thinks they did an excellent job upgrading the secondary judging by camp

 

B.  Mathis looks stout at stopping the run

 

C.  Howell wasn't that good today but was better than how he played on Saturday

 

D.  They do like though Howell is good at self correcting mistakes

 

E.  Barton is looking better than he did in minicamp.  Moving fast and looks impressive.  Hudson decent, too

 

F.  Pringle getting a lot of 1st reps, good chance he makes the roster

 

G.  He thinks Chris Paul has a shot to break into the lineup.  He's in better shape this camp (heard multiple beat guys say he wasn't in hot shape last camp) and looks less raw.  He's getting some first team reps including at RG not just LG. 

 

H. Curtis Hodges is having a pretty good camp.  But he needs to work on his hands.   Logan Thomas looks good, like his prime self.  

 

I.  Howell needs to improve on his timing of the throws.

 

J.  The offense needs to make progress, otherwise they might hold back the season.  He's totally sold on the defense.

 

K.  The secondary is looking really good, just about every player on that unit, they are showcasing how they can disguise coverages, undercut routes, etc

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MartinC

MartinC

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Offense being behind the D should not be a surprise. Pretty much everyone thought this team would be led by the D - and given the resources invested on that side of the ball it had better be.

 

What I hope for is steady improvement from Howell in particular as they bed in a new scheme and Howell gets more and more comfortable and consistent with decision making and accuracy. He’s got the arm talent - it ‘just’ comes down to how fast he can process and his decision making. 

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Conn

Conn

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4 minutes ago, dyst said:

I hope they don’t over coach Howell. Sometimes you got to let guys be who they are.


Would be pretty surprised if the guy who helped coach Mahomes for 4 years struggles with this concept. Mahomes has to be one of the most “set him up to succeed but let him be himself when he needs to break the rules” QBs I’ve ever seen. 

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