2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

You can game plan against that to some extent -

quick game, screens, RPO etc etc. Just don’t get behind. If we get behind against a team with a really good pass rush it’s going to get ugly.

 

Agree the key is don't get behind.   

 

You likely are going to eventually have some clear passing downs, 3rd and medium-long, etc where lets say playing the Giants, Leno will have to win against Thibodeux, Wylie will have to beat Ojulari, Charles-Paul beat Dexter Lawrence.  I think the big boy D lines will gives them problems in some key spots in compeititve games.  But hopefully I am wrong.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[redskinss]

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

think this is my fault.

 

For years I did a "Who would you have taken" thread.  And this year I was busy and I didn't. I also used to track guys through the season based on the "who would you have taken" entries.  

 

What I found out from doing this for several years: the late round man-crushes almost always, with a few exceptions, had the type of careers you would expect most late round players to have.  An odd guy hit here or there, but most didn't.  Some folks had somewhat better track records for finding guys later in the draft than others, but eh, most guys flamed out.  

 

Anyway, I was busy and I didn't do it this year.  If there is interest, I'd be happy to start the 2023 version of the thread, and have folks put in up to 4 guys they would have taken AT THE SPOT THEY WERE AVAILABLE.  The biggest issue I always had was somebody would suggest a guy for a round when he wasn't there.  

 

Then what I did is track them after the first quarter of the season, the half-way point, and end of the season.

No worries I just had a hair across my ass this morning, It wasn't really the topic per se that was frustrating.

And there is a thread on it already.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, redskinss said:

No worries I just had a hair across my ass this morning, It wasn't really the topic per se that was frustrating.

And there is a thread on it already.

I've never heard "hair across my ass" as a phrase.  Not sure I really wanted to?

 

Which thread?  Because I actually was considering starting one.  I really enjoyed tracking people's picks throughout the season.  And I think it was well received. 

[redskinss]

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I've never heard "hair across my ass" as a phrase.  Not sure I really wanted to?

 

Which thread?  Because I actually was considering starting one.  I really enjoyed tracking people's picks throughout the season.  And I think it was well received. 

Really?

Maybe it's a massachusetts thing, just means upset about something, like "woke up on the wrong side of the bed"

 

There's a hindsight picks thread, it's on page 2 right now. 

Edited August 7, 2023 by redskinss

[Skinsinparadise]

To bring home my point on O line versus good D lines, etc.

 

They have 8 games against teams that were top 13 in sacks last year.

 

As for pass rush, they face the top team from 2022, 3rd best, 4th best for 5 of those 8 games.

 

The easy part of the schedule where they face teams that were bottom rung pass rushing teams last year are all during the first 6 games of the year:  Arizona, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago. Denver has a really good secondary but not much of a pass rush.

 

It can all change but i don't see enough off season upgrades to likely change this narrative that dramatically as far as these defenses go. 

 

 

34 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

Anyway, I was busy and I didn't do it this year.  If there is interest, I'd be happy to start the 2023 version of the thread, and have folks put in up to 4 guys they would have taken AT THE SPOT THEY WERE AVAILABLE.  The biggest issue I always had was somebody would suggest a guy for a round when he wasn't there.  

 

 

It's covered, we did that thread

Edited August 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[MartinC]

It’s been noted before but worth noting again all three teams in our Division have strong D’Lines and pass rush. To win a Championship you first have to be built to win your Division - so developing a good O’line would seem something we should put emphasis on.

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree the key is don't get behind.   

 

You likely are going to eventually have some clear passing downs, 3rd and medium-long, etc where lets say playing the Giants, Leno will have to win against Thibodeux, Wylie will have to beat Ojulari, Charles-Paul beat Dexter Lawrence.  I think the big boy D lines will gives them problems in some key spots in compeititve games.  But hopefully I am wrong.

I agree. 2 additional thoughts:

 

1. I think the "big boy" DLs are going to cause a problem for every OL they face. Ours more than other "stouter" lines. I hope to hell our "big boy" DL causes havoc for every OL, including the Eagles, who should, once again, have a very good OL.  

 

2. Literally every team struggles in known passing situations and 3rd and longs.  I couldn't find data for 2021-2022, but for 2020:

- 3rd and 1/2: 67%

- 3rd and 3/4: 51.9%

- 3rd and 5/6: 42.5%

- 3rd and 7/8: 35.7%

- 3rd and 9/10: 31.4%

-3rd and 10+: Pray for Devine intervention.  

 

Those are the "average" numbers, so ~half the teams were somewhat better and half the teams were somewhat worse than those numbers.  

 

But the point remains, you're just not going to make a living in 3rd and 7+ in the NFL. The defense has the advantage in those situations in a very meaningful way.  

 

Which is why I think the entire key to this season rests on how well they can do on first down. Can they run efficiently enough and throw enough COMPLETE quick passes on early downs where they are consistently in 2nd and <= 5. 

 

One of the issues with the offense the last few years is there were SO MANY runs for -1 to 1 yards on first down combined with incomplete passes, they were behind the sticks all the time. And that put very limited QBs with a very limited OLs in the worst possible situation.  

 

I'm REALLY eager to see what EB schemes up on early downs to get into a situation where they could run or pass for a first down on second down.  If they can do that, I think they can have a very good season.

 

If they end up in a lot of 3rd and 7+, then they're going to have a very inconsistent offense and punt a lot, with a lot of sacks and turnovers.  These are bad things.  

 

I don't like the matchup with our OL against very stout DLs in known passing situations.  (Especially if Charles is playing, because he's just going to get knocked on his ass until he pulls a groin.)

 

But I think if EB/Howell can keep the team out of situations where a DL can just "pin it's ears back" they should be ok.

 

I think we kindof agree on this.  I might have been taking a more extreme position just to counter-balance some of the over-the-top doom and gloom positions on the OL. I think there are times they will be ok, times when they will struggle.  But to me, it's less of them struggling against "big boy" DLs, and more struggling with situations where they have to block for extended periods of time against anything.  The better DLs are going to feast on that.  The key is to keep them out of those situations.  

 

But I am somewhat optimistic EB/Howell can keep them out of those situations, for the most part.  And if they can, the offense as a whole should be "ok."

[ExoDus84]

7 minutes ago, MartinC said:

To win a Championship you first have to be built to win your Division - so developing a good O’line would seem something we should put emphasis on.

 

Sounds like you're a better fit for head coach than Ron.

 

Would you take vet min + incentives?

[Voice_of_Reason]

10 minutes ago, MartinC said:

It’s been noted before but worth noting again all three teams in our Division have strong D’Lines and pass rush. To win a Championship you first have to be built to win your Division - so developing a good O’line would seem something we should put emphasis on.

Well, we drafted OL in the 3rd and 4th with the hopes they can produce in 2026, so in that regard, I think Ron IS looking to develop a strong OL.  

 

Just ... possibly for the next coach. 

[Hooper]

2 hours ago, Daniel.redskins said:

I don't really care about camp.  I remember in 2020 when Haskins was reportedly having an excellent camp.  Apparently Dak is having a terrible camp, but if I was a betting man I would bet that Dak has a strong season.  

 

The Cowboys letting Kellen Moore go.... worst move of the offseason. He makes it so easy on quarterbacks. Herbert is going to break records.

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It all depends on the perspective behind your point.

 

I've hit the point about my angst relating to the O line probably too much.   But i've tried to couch my point, to. 

 

A.  I think the O line will be bad but not a disaster

B.  I think the O line will hold up fine in plenty of games

C.  I think the O line will sink us in tough matchups against teams with strong D lines which alas on paper is about half the matchups this year.

 

So while i don't think this O line will get undressed like they did against the Eagles in game 1 from last season.  I think it will be more in the mode of how the Giants suffocated this O line on some key drives with the game on the line. 

 

So looking at the start of the season.  I think O line will be overwhelmed enough to lose to the Bills and Eagles.  The Cardinals though have a meh D line.  Denver has a good defense but they aren't a team that sacks the QB much.   The Bears and Falcons were last and next to last in sacks last year.

 

So just by chance their lighter D line foes come early.    

 

The Cardinals D-Line may be the worst in the league.  The O-Line may look decent week 1.   Week 2 we go against the Bronocos.  They have a solid Defense overall, but the D-Line is the weakest unit on their D.   Their DB's are really good so Howell could struggle, but I would rate their O-line somewhere in the low to mid-20's so I am not expecting that to be the game that really exposes our O-Line even if we do have some struggles.  Week 3 is against the Bills.  When fully healthy they have a beast of a D-Line.  However we pretty much know they will be missing their best D-Lineman (Von Miller) for at least the first month of the season.  Without Von Miller they still have a solid D-Line, but its not near as fearsome as it is with Miller.  Without Miller they may have a D-Line right around the middle of the pack.  So its possible the D-Line sinks us that game,  but its also possible they hold up.   Philly should have a legit D-Line and that is where our guys could get seriously exposed for the first time.

[MartinC]

13 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

Sounds like you're a better fit for head coach than Ron.

 

Would you take vet min + incentives?

Not sure I could take the pay cut.

 

😂

[Skinsinparadise]

42 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I agree. 2 additional thoughts:

 

1. I think the "big boy" DLs are going to cause a problem for every OL they face. Ours more than other "stouter" lines. I hope to hell our "big boy" DL causes havoc for every OL, including the Eagles, who should, once again, have a very good OL.  

 

 

My pessimism is driven by profile wise this is likely a poor offensive line in pass protection and the run game.  So I think they are likely limited on both fronts as to moving the ball.  My slight optimism is their run blocking has looked better in camp than pass blocking so maybe that bodes well for the run game, will see. 

 

I actually like Howell's potential more than most.  And I am high on Bieiniemy.  But I think its unfair to expect Bieniemy to easily scheme his way around an O line's deficiencies.  I think people are likely going to be disappointed in him if that's the expectation.

 

In the Giants game last year when they were backed up deep by their end zone and had to make a play and Thibodeaux beat Leno (for the 2nd pivotal time in the game) and changed that game.I suspect too many moments like that will happen in key games especially within the division.

 

The idea that Bieiniemy will scheme around the weakness while is true that he will try to do that clearly, but it also comes off to me a bit overblown.  Naturally every head coach tries to scheme around their team's weaknesses.  If a corner is weak, shade a safety their way.   If a receiver struggles against press, move them to the slot.  Help a poor run stuffing D line by bringing up the LBs closer in key running downs, etc.  So yeah O line is part of that scheme party, too. 

 

Every team will do something to help mitigate a weakness but clearly its easier said than done.  And teams counter punch.  If you are going to throw a million screens, teams can cue into that and work to stop them especially if they have LBs and safeties with good sideline to sideline range and have good play recognition skills.  

 

If its so easy to work around a pass rush and a stout D line it says even less about Rivera and his roster building since our resources are slanted heavily into that spot.

 

I get your point about if the offense moves the ball well on first down and 2nd -- then it will mitigate the third down situations where we need good pass protect.  Sounds great.  But i don't expect the offense to move the ball well on early downs and that has zero to do with any lack of faith in Howell or Bieniemy.  I am higher on both than most.  But the O line is a factor in some fashion on every down on offense.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

If your Oline competes and wins against the below average to average Dlines, that’s a huge achievement. My hope is competence and depth is established early on and EB shows himself to be a difference maker as a play caller/schemer. 
 

Your QB often times must be elite to compete with the great defensive fronts. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, wit33 said:

If your Oline competes and wins against the below average to average Dlines, that’s a huge achievement.

 

 

Why?  Baby steps for a bad O line?  Not sure i get the logic.

 

21 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Your QB often times must be elite to compete with the great defensive fronts. 

 

 

We talking now 2024?  Because we clearly cannot expect Howell to be elite against great defensive lines to overcome this O line.  Brady was a special QB, best of all time, yet the Giants believe they beat the Pats in both SBs by their D line overwhelming the Pats O line.    Heck even a porous O line is too much for Brady let alone a young QB with almost no pro experience

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[wit33]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Why?  Baby steps for a bad O line?  Not sure i get the logic.

 

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

We talking now 2024?  Because we clearly cannot expect Howell to be elite against great defensive lines to overcome this O line.  Brady was a special QB, best of all time, yet the Giants believe they beat the Pats in both SBs by their D line overwhelming the Pats O line.    Heck even a porous O line is too much for Brady let alone a young QB with almost no pro experience

Compete and sometimes dominate against the 70-80% of the league (average), against the elite fronts… hope the scheme is great that day, a TO goes your way, your defense does better than their defense, or your QB makes a few backyard type plays. Individual games are incredibly fickle, even for the elite QBs. 
 

No doubt about Brady, no way saying it’s absolute or static. 
 

Side note: I believe an elite defensive front is third to an elite QB and/or OC in terms of win/loss value. 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Compete and sometimes dominate against the 70-80% of the league (average), against the elite fronts… hope the scheme is great that day, a TO goes your way, your defense does better than their defense, or your QB makes a few backyard type plays. Individual games are incredibly fickle, even for the elite QBs. 

 

I don't expect the O line to dominate against any team.  But yeah do I think a bad O line can compete with a bad D line?  Sure.   Bad CBs can likewise hold their own against bad WRs.

 

Using the same logic.  McDonalds isn't the greatest cuisine.  but I think it can fare fine against Burger King in a taste test.   

 

Unfortunately we aren't dealing with Burger King level cuisine in our division.  And half the season, will be our McDonalds competing against restaurants with fine cuisine.

 

But yeah I don't think this season will be a disaster like most of the national media does.  I think Ron has another 8-9 type season in him where the O line will hold up in some games to avoid an awful season while crash in enough of them to thwart any hopes for the playoffs.

 

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

49 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My pessimism is driven by profile wise this is likely a poor offensive line in pass protection and the run game.  So I think they are likely limited on both fronts as to moving the ball.  My slight optimism is their run blocking has looked better in camp than pass blocking so maybe that bodes well for the run game, will see.

 

They also say the RB's look good, specifically Robinson looks great. I feel like the OL has to be doing something right for people to notice the RB's playing well.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

They also say the RB's look good, specifically Robinson looks great. I feel like the OL has to be doing something right for people to notice the RB's playing well.

 

I've mentioned that.  The run blocking as to the O line has had some moments.   Most of the raving about Brian Robinson has centered on his hands and speed.  Apparenty, his hands have been unbelievable. 

 

My gut is they still won't be a good run blocking unit because player by player its not a high pedigreed run blocking unit aside from Cosmi.    But its possible they can be OK on that front. 

 

If I had to guess it now.  Run blocking = average.  If I had to lean in a direcftion, I'd lean below average.  I am torn between a 4 or 5 as to my guess.   Pass blocking below average.  I lean more in the direction of below average than awful.   I lean somwhere between a 3 or 4. 

 

The rap has not been all roses as to the run blocking.  I recall Tischler (played o line in college) from Finlay's podcast being unimpressed with the O line in goal line situations as to running the ball and they struggled against the 2nd unit.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Daniel.redskins]

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

That's a bad look for our 3rd and 4th round picks.  The starters are locked.  Backups are obviously Lucas, Paul, and probably Larsen (because of Gates gets hurt we are absolutely screwed without some experience at center).  Do we take 9 or 10 o-line?  Because if Trent Scott looks good at tackle Stromberg or Daniels may not even make the team.  What a terrible draft.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Daniel.redskins

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

5 minutes ago, Daniel.redskins said:

Stromberg or Daniels may not even make the team.  What a terrible draft.

Stromberg is gonna make the team. 

[FootballZombie]

Hard to see us not stocking as many C's as possible after last year.

 

Especially if Gates' airmail problems don't go away. Can't imagine they let that go for long in season w/ Larsen sitting right there.

[wit33]

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't expect the O line to dominate against any team.  But yeah do I think a bad O line can compete with a bad D line?  Sure.

 

There will be games where Washington runs for 150 plus yards and wins 23-17 spearheaded by the rushing attack. Would that be dominant? 
 

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

   Bad CBs can likewise hold their own against bad WRs.

 

I disagree, an NFL game rarely is this linear. 
 

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Using the same logic.  McDonalds isn't the greatest cuisine.  but I think it can fare fine against Burger King in a taste test.   

 

Unfortunately we aren't dealing with Burger King level cuisine in our division.  And half the season, will be our McDonalds competing against restaurants with fine cuisine.

 

Time, location, people involved, craving on that day, how much time you have to eat, nostalgia, desire to pass down favorites to kids can all play a significant role in what wins that day: fine cuisine or McDonald’s. 

 

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

But yeah I don't think this season will be a disaster like most of the national media does.  I think Ron has another 8-9 type season in him where the O line will hold up in some games to avoid an awful season while crash in enough of them to thwart any hopes for the playoffs.

 

 

 

Great accomplishment for this to be the expectation. If Howell can be dynamic just enough the win total will increase. 
 

Coaches should be graded on a +3/-3 curve depending on if they have an elite QB or not. Tough to project more wins than 8 without an elite starter. 

[KillBill26]

16 minutes ago, Daniel.redskins said:

Do we take 9 or 10 o-line?  

I think we have to take 10 due to the uncertainty of guys like Charles, Paul, Daniels, Stromberg, and Brooks.  Our backups have potential, but have a long way to go so the extra guy would really help.