2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[ntotoro]

1 hour ago, ixcuincle said:

35 dollars for one of these. Crazy.

 

 

He'll be a rare collectors item soon... 

[hail2skins]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

I don't believe Blackjack in a casino is that doable through math or systems. Blackjack on a 52 card deck, absolutely. But a casino's randomness is over the top.

 

Casino's will use 5 or 6 decks, all shuffled together, and then a random cut that removes 25-40% of all the cards. You could have an awkward shuffle/cut where all the Aces are missing, or most of the low cards, or whatever. How do you quantify the randomness and develop a strategy when you have no idea which cards are even playable?

They've also changed the payouts on the lower limit tables on the Vegas Strip to where blackjack pays 6/5 instead of 3/2. Pretty much makes the game unbeatable, even if you attempt some sort of counting.

 

Its that way at MGM National Harbor too. Will cost you at least $25 for a 3/2 table, and more often it'll be $50. Takes a nice bankroll to play that, as well as craps there, where the tables are usually $50 min. MGMNH, for atmospherics, might be the most miserable casino I've ever been in.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

6 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

They've also changed the payouts on the lower limit tables on the Vegas Strip to where blackjack pays 6/5 instead of 3/2. Pretty much makes the game unbeatable, even if you attempt some sort of counting.

 

Its that way at MGM National Harbor too. Will cost you at least $25 for a 3/2 table, and more often it'll be $50. Takes a nice bankroll to play that, as well as craps there, where the tables are usually $50 min. MGMNH, for atmospherics, might be the most miserable casino I've ever been in.

 

The craps pass line at MGM is $50? That's crazy! You've gotta back it up to get odds right too, so it's quickly serious money.

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Damn man, this feels like an entirely different team now. Like night and day. This is amazing.

 

Oh no, this season is now doomed! You said night and day when we traded for Wentz 😂

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, Skinsfan1311 said:

Shhhhhh!!!!

It's cool that it worked for you, but it's kind of a head-scratcher, because the on-site parking is supposed to be STH perk for those of us who selected who selected the business package with our accounts and signed up for VIP access. 

 

I’m thinking the 3 buses to shuttle was such a disaster they gave up and just started parking anyone that wanted to.  Likely more organized moving forward.

[NewCliche21]

8 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Oh no, this season is now doomed! You said night and day when we traded for Wentz 😂

 

It was. Just like in Alaska when the sun never rises for a couple weeks.

[hail2skins]

15 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

The craps pass line at MGM is $50? That's crazy! You've gotta back it up to get odds right too, so it's quickly serious money.

They have been better at leaving some tables at $25, but more than likely most of the open tables you'll see there will be $50.

 

Also, they have converted three out of 10 tables in the craps pit there to a "crapless" layout, where 2, 3, 11, and 12 become point numbers on the come-out instead of winners/losers. With few exceptions, an inferior game to regular craps, as the house edge is higher.

 

Also, about 40 percent of the roulette games there have been converted to adding a "000" number to the standard wheels which have "0" and "000," which again, increases the house edge significantly.

 

Same thing has been happening on the Vegas Strip. Higher minimums and inferior games are simple greed from the casinos. But people are still coming in droves, so why stop?

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Basically if you are negative on the OL, your analysis is wrong no matter what happens but if it’s good- those who predicted that are correct.  

I’ve never actually said that.  I don’t think anybody knows how the OL is going to do, good or bad, and that’s my point.  It’s 4 starters in new positions, new scheme, new play caller and new QB.  
 

My point has been the doom and gloom is not warranted. Yet. Literally nobody is posting/reporting that they think they OL will be the next version of the Hogs, but I’d say the same thing.  
 

Shrug.  You (all) might be right.  I might be crazy. (But it might just be a lunatic you’re looking for?) -Billy Joel

 

Maybe the season is already over because the OL is going to stink. 
 

I’d like to see it play out a bit before its judgement time.  

[Conn]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I’ve never actually said that.  I don’t think anybody knows how the OL is going to do, good or bad, and that’s my point.  It’s 4 starters in new positions, new scheme, new play caller and new QB.  
 

My point has been the doom and gloom is not warranted. Yet. Literally nobody is posting/reporting that they think they OL will be the next version of the Hogs, but I’d say the same thing.  
 

Shrug.  You (all) might be right.  I might be crazy. (But it might just be a lunatic you’re looking for?) -Billy Joel

 

Maybe the season is already over because the OL is going to stink. 
 

I’d like to see it play out a bit before its judgement time.  

So your stance is that there’s no realistic way to attempt to prognosticate these things? If you try, you’re immediately full of ****? Idk man, can’t really get behind that. There are unknown factors, unknown chemistry, etc. to factor in. But there is a lot of preexisting knowledge about a lot of the players involved so to say that just because you’re throwing all these pieces in a blender with new ingredients, it’s impossible to make an educated guess as to how that smoothie might taste—I don’t think that’s fair. 

[RVAskins]

28 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’m thinking the 3 buses to shuttle was such a disaster they gave up and just started parking anyone that wanted to.  Likely more organized moving forward.

They're just not used to dealing with crowds. I'm sure they'll work it out. I hope fans will be patient.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

8 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Maybe the season is already over because the OL is going to stink. 
 

I’d like to see it play out a bit before its judgement time.  

That’s the beauty of it, everyone gets to see it play out.  It’s just hard to be optimistic about them and if you asked me to pick any unit that gives me concern - it’s OL and warranted.  It’d be great if EB and Howell can mask some of that with play-calling and off script plays.  I think we are all rooting for that.

[Morneblade]

6 minutes ago, Conn said:

So your stance is that there’s no realistic way to attempt to prognosticate these things? If you try, you’re immediately full of ****? Idk man, can’t really get behind that. There are unknown factors, unknown chemistry, etc. to factor in. But there is a lot of preexisting knowledge about a lot of the players involved so to say that just because you’re throwing all these pieces in a blender with new ingredients, it’s impossible to make an educated guess as to how that smoothie might taste—I don’t think that’s fair. 

 This. We should know that we don't have any top tier talent here. We have guys that "should be ok", or "might be ok." We don't have "good" anything there, and we certainly don't have great. OL is the biggest area of concern, and it really was not addressed.

[Skinsfan1311]

31 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’m thinking the 3 buses to shuttle was such a disaster they gave up and just started parking anyone that wanted to.  Likely more organized moving forward.

Makes sense.

I can't wait!   We've been to every TC for the past 20 years, or so, (but only once in Richmond), but a big part of the reason is to soak up the atmosphere and get our football fix.

Glad that you had a good time!

 

[gortiz]

Just now, Morneblade said:

 This. We should know that we don't have any top tier talent here. We have guys that "should be ok", or "might be ok." We don't have "good" anything there, and we certainly don't have great. OL is the biggest area of concern, and it really was not addressed.

logan paulson was on the junks a few days ago.  he's bullish on them and says a big reason is scheme. he feels the right scheme and good play call/design can go a long way in helping an OL compensate.  

[Skinsfan1311]

52 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

They've also changed the payouts on the lower limit tables on the Vegas Strip to where blackjack pays 6/5 instead of 3/2. Pretty much makes the game unbeatable, even if you attempt some sort of counting.

 

Its that way at MGM National Harbor too. Will cost you at least $25 for a 3/2 table, and more often it'll be $50. Takes a nice bankroll to play that, as well as craps there, where the tables are usually $50 min. MGMNH, for atmospherics, might be the most miserable casino I've ever been in.

 

45 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

The craps pass line at MGM is $50? That's crazy! You've gotta back it up to get odds right too, so it's quickly serious money.

Can you please stick to the thread topic, or start a gambling thread in the Tailgate?   This thread is long enough as it is.🍻

[Morneblade]

2 minutes ago, gortiz said:

logan paulson was on the junks a few days ago.  he's bullish on them and says a big reason is scheme. he feels the right scheme and good play call/design can go a long way in helping an OL compensate.  

Well, Wylie was in the same scheme and gave up 8 sacks last year. I don't know if that is going to be enough. I get wanting lighter, more mobile guys, for the scheme. But that's only going to go so far if you don't have talent. And we really don't have it. Maybe they end up being "ok", but does anyone honestly think that this could be "good"?

[MartinC]

28 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I’ve never actually said that.  I don’t think anybody knows how the OL is going to do, good or bad, and that’s my point.  It’s 4 starters in new positions, new scheme, new play caller and new QB.   

 

No one KNOWS, that's true. But its fair game to look at past performance, judge the changes made and express significant concern about the unit. 90+% of posts on ES are projections about what MIGHT happen based on what has happened. Heck 90+% of life for that matter!

 

I dont think anyone is saying for certain the O'line is going to be an absolute disaster - some might be edging that way but thats the fringe. Most people are expressing concern and that concern is rooted in a IMO reasonable review of where we where last season and whats been done to date in the offseason for that unit.

[NewCliche21]

7 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

<snip> 90+% of posts on ES are projections about what MIGHT happen based on what has happened. Heck 90+% of life for that matter!

 

I doubt you'll be saying that at the end of the season

[MartinC]

6 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

I doubt you'll be saying that at the end of the season

Why?

 

If we are looking back on what did happen I guess you’d be right 🙂 

[NewCliche21]

28 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Why?

 

If we are looking back on what did happen I guess you’d be right 🙂 

 

Just a joke using a projection to doubt the use of projections.

[RVAskins]

1 minute ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

Just a joke using a projection to doubt the use of projections.

Me thinks thou doth project too much.

[Captain James]

18 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Well you picked the best casino game out there. If all you do is play the pass and don't pass lines, and back them up then that is the best odds in any casino. It's something like 49.9% for you and 50.01% for the house. Indistinguishable difference and even odds unless you play 10,000 times. Long live craps! Especially if the table vibe is right, then it's just fun times for everyone! You can play and probably not lose money, then pickup some free ****tails (besides tipping the waiters)

This guy craps

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

What is with the bad audio and video when Rivera speaks to the media? It's brutal.

[Conn]

brutal 

[MartinC]

Speaking of O’line.