2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Warhead36]

Feel like with the depth at T in the draft well draft a T and address G in FA.

[RWJ]

25 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Feel like with the depth at T in the draft well draft a T and address G in FA.

Seems like most mocks have the really good OTs going by the mid to late 2nd round.  Looks like we have to nab one after our #2 overall pick.  Fun to see how Peters works the draft.  

[Warhead36]

23 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Seems like most mocks have the really good OTs going by the mid to late 2nd round.  Looks like we have to nab one after our #2 overall pick.  Fun to see how Peters works the draft.  

I could see us packaging a 2nd and 3rd to move up to the late 1st to grab one of the last few 1st round graded OTs. If someone like say Mims or Latham were available. 
 

My dream scenario is QB at 2 and two OL from our 2nds(either staying at 2 or trade ups). 

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Why do you hate yourself and all of us?

They're already on the roster, so what ya gonna do?

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

They're already on the roster, so what ya gonna do?

Build a yacht and send them halfway across the world in luxury for the length of their contract.

[Riggo#44]

13 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

He will be dead soon

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Feel like with the depth at T in the draft well draft a T and address G in FA.

 

I dunno, this Guard FA class looks super weak to me. Who would we go for?

[RWJ]

8 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I dunno, this Guard FA class looks super weak to me. Who would we go for?

2024 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac  See how many Detroit OG are on it. 

[Warhead36]

27 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I dunno, this Guard FA class looks super weak to me. Who would we go for?

Jonah Jackson would be the prize. Just hitting his prime as an IOL, comes from the Ben Johnson Lions offense, and fits a massive need at LG for us.

 

But you also got guys like Damien Lewis, Robert Hunt, and Dalton Risner. All guys who were starting IOL for some good offenses. Now I don't know about how they'd fit within the system, if they play L or R, etc. but there are some quality guys out there.

 

The guy I REALLY wanted was Connor Williams the Dolphins C but he tore his ACL and apparently has torn an ACL in the past so I think I'd just stay away and hope to draft someone and/or hope Stromberg can develop in year 2.

[skinny21]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Jonah Jackson would be the prize. Just hitting his prime as an IOL, comes from the Ben Johnson Lions offense, and fits a massive need at LG for us.

 

But you also got guys like Damien Lewis, Robert Hunt, and Dalton Risner. All guys who were starting IOL for some good offenses. Now I don't know about how they'd fit within the system, if they play L or R, etc. but there are some quality guys out there.

 

The guy I REALLY wanted was Connor Williams the Dolphins C but he tore his ACL and apparently has torn an ACL in the past so I think I'd just stay away and hope to draft someone and/or hope Stromberg can develop in year 2.

Funny, was just reading about Lewis.  Has played on left and right.  PFF says Seahawks use both zone and gap blocking, which Ben Johnson also blended in Detroit.  But of course, we have to see who they bring in as HC/OC, what kind of scheme they like to run, and then there’s the chance that someone like Johnson, who likes to scheme around his olinemen’s strengths, throws a wrench in the thinking.  Lot of interesting options at guard though in FA.

 

I’d still look hard at Williams.  The prospect of getting a player of his caliber, at a discount, even if he misses the first part of the year, is pretty appealing… assuming his surgery went well of course.  I’d also understand if they go for more stopgap types just to open up the draft (and not necessarily block off a guy like Stromberg from earning a starting gig).

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[skinny21]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

 

WAR.  What is it good for?

[HTTRDynasty]

18 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

WAR.  What is it good for?

 

https://www.pff.com/war

Quote

 

METHODOLOGY

Broadly, the PFF WAR model does these things, in order:

• Determine how good a given player was during a period of time (generally a season) using PFF grades;
• Map a player’s production to a “wins” value for his team using the relative importance of each facet of play;
• Simulate a team’s expected performance with a player of interest and with an average player participating identically in his place. Take the difference in expected wins (e.g., Wins Above Average);
• Determine the average player with a given participation profile’s wins above replacement player, assuming a team of replacement-level players is a 3-13 team;
• Add the terms in the last two calculations to get that player’s WAR.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.sloansportsconference.com/research-papers/pff-war-modeling-player-value-in-american-football

Quote

Player valuation is one of the most important problems in all of team sports.  In this paper we use Pro Football Focus (PFF) player grades and participation data to develop a wins above replacement (WAR) model for the National Football League.  We find that PFF WAR at the player level is more stable than traditional, or even advanced, measures of performance, and yields dramatic insights into the value of different positions.  The number of wins a team accrues through its players’ WAR is more stable than other means of measuring team success, such as Pythagorean win totals.  We finish the paper with a discussion of the value of each position in the NFL draft and add nuance to the research suggesting that trading up in the draft is a negative-expected-value move.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 24 by HTTRDynasty

[slidegood]

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d5486181-9906-42f4-b55f-cef64d3c513d

 

I think you missed the joke

[Riggo#44]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Jonah Jackson would be the prize.

 

Especially if we have Johnson as HC. He won't break the bank either

[The Consigliere]

15 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Go look at Mayes 22 stats instead. Sam never had a season close to it.  He was fantastic. Not making excuses for his 2023. But he did have a new OC and system to play in this past season. Along with an awful OL and only one good WR. Howell has a very good arm. Mayes is stronger. They both will throw the ball into tight windows. But Maye does it better. Maye will need some work on his footwork in the pocket. He gets his feet crossed up on occasion. But even when he does he can still throw a 40 yard lazer because of his arm strength. 

Seems like they both got smashed a bit by graduations to the NFL, Howell lost 2 RB's and 2 WR's after his '20, leading to a lesser '21, Maye lost Josh Downs to the Colts and Antoine Green to the Lions after his '22, leading to a lesser '23 (I don't know about RB and TE). 

 

UNC seems to have issues recruiting, then again college football itself at this point is totally ridiculous. Conferences are a joke, the transfer portal, while totally justifiable, has made a mess of team building, and in general, the old system is no longer viable for college or for scouting. You have to pay attention to far more variables, its gonna get harder to evaluate rather than easier, though, otoh, you'll also have instances where a guy like Daniels will leave the defensively challenged Pac-12 (that disintegrated) for the defensively stout SEC, and give you better data on how he can handle more legit defenses, so in that sense, there's a tiny bit more of usable data, sometimes, on prospects because you get a greater variety of windows to interpret them from (sometimes). 

[Warhead36]

The Howell and Maye comparisons are lazy. Its like people last year saying Stroud would suck because Fields and Haskins were bad.

 

Maye is just superior to Howell in every way. Their only similarity is their college uniform. That's it.

 

Howell was a 5th round pick in a god awful QB class. Maye has been hyped as a top QB prospect and is considered a top 2, top 3 at worst, in a very strong QB class.

 

Stop the non sense please.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I could see us packaging a 2nd and 3rd to move up to the late 1st to grab one of the last few 1st round graded OTs. If someone like say Mims or Latham were available. 
 

My dream scenario is QB at 2 and two OL from our 2nds(either staying at 2 or trade ups). 

My only trade up target would be Bowers. I have seen a lot of mocks lately with him falling to like 14-17 due to lack of value in the position. If that starts happening I would jump up and grab him. If not we need the rest of our picks. And it is a deep OT draft. We will get one of the good ones with our first 2nd rounder imo. 

[88Comrade2000]

If we need to trade up for an ot, we could always put out 25 #1 in the deal.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Jonah Jackson would be the prize. Just hitting his prime as an IOL, comes from the Ben Johnson Lions offense, and fits a massive need at LG for us.

 

But you also got guys like Damien Lewis, Robert Hunt, and Dalton Risner. All guys who were starting IOL for some good offenses. Now I don't know about how they'd fit within the system, if they play L or R, etc. but there are some quality guys out there.

 

The guy I REALLY wanted was Connor Williams the Dolphins C but he tore his ACL and apparently has torn an ACL in the past so I think I'd just stay away and hope to draft someone and/or hope Stromberg can develop in year 2.

Its also a really good FA for the center position. I would go after Biadasz. Strengthen our team and weaken an opponent. 

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

The Howell and Maye comparisons are lazy. Its like people last year saying Stroud would suck because Fields and Haskins were bad.

 

Maye is just superior to Howell in every way. Their only similarity is their college uniform. That's it.

 

Howell was a 5th round pick in a god awful QB class. Maye has been hyped as a top QB prospect and is considered a top 2, top 3 at worst, in a very strong QB class.

 

Stop the non sense please.

They aren’t lazy. It’s a good conversation to have. And they have a lot of the same pros and cons.

 

Both have strong arms, Maye’s is slightly stronger.

 

Both run into sacks.

 

Both can use their legs deceptively well.

 

Both are tough, Howell has a slight edge.

 

Both have a nice deep ball and can make all the throws.

 

Howell is a touch better mechanically.

 

Maye is much better in height and overall athleticism.

 

In the end, Maye is a better prospect because of the items you can’t teach and mostly on par or better in the rest. And the fact he does it while having poor mechanics means that if he corrects the mechanics the sky is the limit.

 

You can’t teach height, speed and athleticism. Maye is better than Howell in those variables.

 

It’s not a lazy comparison at all. 

Edited January 24 by KDawg

[OtisDriftwood25]

18 minutes ago, KDawg said:

They aren’t lazy. It’s a good conversation to have. And they have a lot of the same pros and cons.

 

Both have strong arms, Maye’s is slightly stronger.

 

Both run into sacks.

 

Both can use their legs deceptively well.

 

Both are tough, Howell has a slight edge.

 

Both have a nice deep ball and can make all the throws.

 

Howell is a touch better mechanically.

 

Maye is much better in height and overall athleticism.

 

In the end, Maye is a better prospect because of the items you can’t teach and mostly on par or better in the rest. And the fact he does it while having poor mechanics means that if he corrects the mechanics the sky is the limit.

 

You can’t teach height, speed and athleticism. Maye is better than Howell in those variables.

 

It’s not a lazy comparison at all. 

I agree with all of this. 
 

People should also look at ACC in general. Trevor Lawrence was god in cleats coming out a few years ago. It’s a hard league to translate. The number one undefeated ACC team didn’t even get selected to final 4. There quarterback got injured but he is still only projected 4th/5th round pick.

Edited January 24 by OtisDriftwood25

[skinny21]

23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It’s also a really good FA for the center position. I would go after Biadasz. Strengthen our team and weaken an opponent. 

I haven’t watched him, but I like the idea of Coleman Shelton from the Rams.  Probably on the cheaper end, can play both C and RG, and can be used in both zone/gap run schemes.  Cheap(er) means it doesn’t feel a waste if Stromberg beats him out, ability to play RG gives us insurance for a Cosmi injury, and I believe Ben Johnson (if we land him) ran both gap and zone in Detroit.

 

Now, I’m not looking to just add decent talent or guys with position flex, we need quality.  But as the 2nd of two FA olineman (say, Jackson or Onwenwu as their bigger signing), I think that works to keep draft options open, still allows an opportunity for Stromberg to earn a job, while improving the unit (even if he wound up as the next man off the bench).  With all of that said, I don’t know how different/better Shelton is from/than Gates.

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I haven’t watched him, but I like the idea of Coleman Shelton from the Rams.  Probably on the cheaper end, can play both C and RG, and can be used in both zone/gap run schemes.  Cheap(er) means it doesn’t feel a waste if Stromberg beats him out, ability to play RG gives us insurance for a Cosmi injury, and I believe Ben Johnson (if we land him) ran both gap and zone in Detroit.

 

Now, I’m not looking to just add decent talent or guys with position flex, we need quality.  But as the 2nd of two FA olineman (say, Jackson or Onwenwu as their bigger signing), I think that works to keep draft options open, still allows an opportunity for Stromberg to earn a job, while improving the unit (even if he wound up as the next man off the bench).  With all of that said, I don’t know how different/better Shelton is from/than Gates.

Stromberg already gives you Guard flexibility. He played both in college. Biadasz is a pure center. Only ever played center in college. And is a good one. Plus only 26 years old.

[Chump Bailey]

6 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Didn't Hamilton run a really bad 40? Nubin is a legit safety. 

 

Well, 4.59 is the official time. Yeah, I like Nubin a lot though I think he is better served in a SS role. I really do not see anyone the caliber of Hamilton or one of my favorite single-high safety prospects I've seen in a while and another Raven Marcus Williams in this group. I'm going through FS types now and to my eyes the top 2 thus far are Kinchens and Bullock.

 

Actually, I need to backpedal a bit. Cooper DeJean is that caliber easily. I just ranked him as a CB and not Safety.

Edited January 24 by Chump Bailey