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2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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3 hours ago, DWinzit said:

My top 5:

Bowers

Stover/Sanders

Sinnett

Bell

 

The rest fall from there.

Sinnett is my favorite....3rd rounder please!

Bowers goes without saying. 

 

I really like the blocking of the three I listed and I like the size/speed combos.

 

Sinnott I started watching Beebe and my eyes just kept finding him. Strangely the same thing happens when I watch Sinnott, I keep finding Beebe. 

 

I want them both. Maye, XL, Beebe, JPJ, Paul, Sinnott I think is my want right now.

 

Cupp in the 7th or UDFA, but I think he's going to light up the combine.

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2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Howell right now is a wildcard.

I'm eager to see what Ben Johnson, when hopefully hired as new HC and our OC & QB coach can do to restore Howell or at least get the most out of him.  

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3 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

You wont get very many people agreeing with you on this, but I will.  I look at the past few drafts in San Fran and these day two picks are amazing. 

 

We have nine total picks right now, and WAY more than nine holes on the roster. Trading down makes sense unless you have one of these QB prospects rated as "cant miss".  I dont therefore I am trading down.

 

The leaks from scouts-personnel guys have been that they are high on this Qb class especially the ones on the top.   Maybe they are wrong.  IMHO they are right.  Will see though.

 

If they trade down and don't take a QB it will go from being the off season that I've been the most jazzed to see unfold to the most dissapointing.  But I seriously doubt it happens.

 

As for trading down, it can be with their other picks.  Doesn't have to be just that first rounder. 

 

5 minutes ago, The Rook said:

 

Boy, that was a beautifully blocked play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

:229:The Rook

 

It was but Watson IMO is an intriguing player.  Explosive.  Passing weapon.    I did a longish take on him days back after watching a few games.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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From the cutups I've watched so far of Maye, I do see some accuracy issues, and in my (completely amateur) assessment, a lot of his pocket inaccuracies come from his footwork being inconsistent and getting very sloppy at times. He'll definitely need to clean that up in the NFL. But IF that is the main source of his accuracy issues, then it can be improved.

 

The lack of touch/accuracy on the move is more of a "have it or don't" thing IMO. Williams 100% just has it. Maye IMO doesn't so much. Which is why, even though he can run, I see Maye as being more in the Herbert pocket passer mold vs Williams who creates out of nothing (but also takes lots of negative plays at times due to that as well).

 

I think Maye is a safer prospect, but Williams is a far more electric playmaker.

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I don't think Maye is as inaccurate as say Josh Allen was im college but definitely noticed it watching film. Accuracy issues are hard for me to overlook because there are sooooo few QBs who have been able to overcome them. They are one of the best predictors of success at the NFL level..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone points to Josh Allen as an example rather than the 100 other QBs that had accuracy issues and couldn't. Allen is the exception. There are a lot more Desmond Ridder inaccurate in college/inaccurate in the NFL stories than stories like Josh Allen.

 

I followed Allen. The amount of work he did to improve was well documented and his work in the Buffalo community off the field was why fans were willing to be so patient with him to improve it

 

 

 

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Its funny how Maye and Daniels get compared so often to Allen and Lamar when the latter two could barely hit the broadside of a barn in college.

They are both light-years ahead of those two as college passers. Allen and Lamar were legit horrible accuracy-wise.

 

There is more to it than completion % but Maye and Daniels put up 63% and 72% respectively. Allen and Lamar were 56% and 59% in their final college years.

 

 

Neither Maye nor Daniels need to have the monstrously uncommon accuracy gains seen from Allen and Lamar to be successful in the NFL, because they are not the garbage tier passers those two were coming into the league. If Maye and Daniels improve just a little, they will be fine. They are starting from a much higher floor, the distance they have to climb is effectively much shorter.

 

 

If either Maye or Daniels had the passing chops of college Allen or Lamar I wouldn't want to touch either w/ a ten foot poll b/c the odds of them improving to the degree needed to be successful is nearly a statistical impossibility.

Edited by FootballZombie
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10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So any of these theortical examples of outliers do not move the needle with me.   They exist in every walk of life and if you place your bets on the outlier -- there is a very good chance you will lose.

 

I'd like to agree to disagree but placing your bet on the top 5 QB pick isn't a great bet either. This isn't about what moves the needle with you, that's totally up to you, but history shows, as I tried to point out, that chances are we will not hit on the franchise QB with the #2 pick this year the same as it hasn't for most franchises over the years. The examples I give are facts, ignore them if you like, and whether my examples are the outlier to conventional drafting or not, they are what's real history. Troy Aikman said it best a couple of weeks ago, picking a QB in the first round is a 50-50 proposition and that's OK...if our GM falls in love with Maye or Daniels then I trust the pick, if not I'm not opposed to trading back and acquiring extra picks and having 2 first round picks next year plus more picks this year. 

I'll add this, history shows that teams that have traded out of the #1 or #2 pick have fared better than the teams that have traded up. That can't be ignored if we get a great offer to deal the pick. The Bears this year are where I want to be next year and that was all set up by dealing the #1 overall pick last year. They are in the catbirds seat for sure...and we ain't winning the SB in 2024. 

 

3 hours ago, RWJ said:

I'm eager to see what Ben Johnson, when hopefully hired as new HC and our OC & QB coach can do to restore Howell or at least get the most out of him.  

I am too...I can't stop thinking about the praise Darius Slay laid on Howell after playing him twice; he showed tremendous respect and actually praised Sam. In no way am I giving up on Sam Howell after we just committed a full season towards his growth. Similar to Browning in Cincy, I can see Sam getting better in the league as he learns and gets better coaching with more talent around him.

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1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

I don't think Maye is as inaccurate as say Josh Allen was im college but definitely noticed it watching film. Accuracy issues are hard for me to overlook because there are sooooo few QBs who have been able to overcome them. They are one of the best predictors of success at the NFL level..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone points to Josh Allen as an example rather than the 100 other QBs that had accuracy issues and couldn't. Allen is the exception. There are a lot more Desmond Ridder inaccurate in college/inaccurate in the NFL stories than stories like Josh Allen.

 

I followed Allen. The amount of work he did to improve was well documented and his work in the Buffalo community off the field was why fans were willing to be so patient with him to improve it

 

 

 

The one thing we do know, is that we have a Bonafide GM now and Peters, along with input from the HC and Harris will be making the final call.  it is his to make.  He has the eye for talent but has missed on players too.  He will find the right guy.  He will have the HC in mind especially the HC is an OC.  Either way, Peters, who is one of the best at finding talent, will get the best QB for the team.  Right now, I think that guy is Maye. I was on the Daniels train for a long time, so we wait and see who Peters, HC and Harris and ultimately Peters selects.  :)  

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8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Some do it from the jump like Kuechly, some not right away.  Pierce did it his first year as a starter. 


Given how complicated offenses have gotten since then, I think it is even harder for a rookie to be a green dot LB day 1 (as the last moronic staff tried to do w Jamin). A veteran who has been around has become even more important. 
 

As examples, in this FA class, Al Shaair was the 3rd LB in SF and learned over 4 years before becoming the green dot in TN this past year. Similarly, Luvu just earned the green dot this year after years in the league as a special teamer in NYJ first.

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2 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

I'd like to agree to disagree but placing your bet on the top 5 QB pick isn't a great bet either. This isn't about what moves the needle with you, that's totally up to you, but history shows, as I tried to point out, that chances are we will not hit on the franchise QB with the #2 pick this year the same as it hasn't for most franchises over the years. The examples I give are facts, ignore them if you like, and whether my examples are the outlier to conventional drafting or not, they are what's real history. Troy Aikman said it best a couple of weeks ago, picking a QB in the first round is a 50-50 proposition and that's OK...if our GM falls in love with Maye or Daniels then I trust the pick, if not I'm not opposed to trading back and acquiring extra picks and having 2 first round picks next year plus more picks this year. 

I'll add this, history shows that teams that have traded out of the #1 or #2 pick have fared better than the teams that have traded up. That can't be ignored if we get a great offer to deal the pick. The Bears this year are where I want to be next year and that was all set up by dealing the #1 overall pick last year. They are in the catbirds seat for sure...and we ain't winning the SB in 2024. 

 

 

Hitting on a QB in the 1st round is a sub 50% likelihood (IIRC it's somewhere between 30-40%, though "hit" is also relative to how you define it). Hitting on a QB after the 1st round? That's in the single digits percentage-wise. I have no idea why you keep ignoring this fact. For every Dak, Brady, or even Kirk there are about 50 who do nothing.

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7 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

I'd like to agree to disagree but placing your bet on the top 5 QB pick isn't a great bet either. This isn't about what moves the needle with you, that's totally up to you, but history shows, as I tried to point out, that chances are we will not hit on the franchise QB with the #2 pick this year the same as it hasn't for most franchises over the years. The examples I give are facts, ignore them if you like, and whether my examples are the outlier to conventional drafting or not, they are what's real history. Troy Aikman said it best a couple of weeks ago, picking a QB in the first round is a 50-50 proposition and that's OK...if our GM falls in love with Maye or Daniels then I trust the pick, if not I'm not opposed to trading back and acquiring extra picks and having 2 first round picks next year plus more picks this year. 

 

 

It's not lost on anyone that taking a QB always involves risk.  But the odds are better the higher you take them.  No guts no glory.  It's been said to death here from me and a zillion others. 

 

If we don't want a shot to play with the cool kids.  Then no one should complain if we are back playing with the nerds which we are used to where 9-8 is our occasional fun with a one and out playoff run every 5 years or so.  If we want that, then trade down and we will be back in the familiar country we are used to living in.  As Josh Harris said there is a short cut to mediocrity.  IMO the short cut back to 8-9 turf is skipping Qb and going on that familiar ride. 

 

7 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

 

I'll add this, history shows that teams that have traded out of the #1 or #2 pick have fared better than the teams that have traded up. That can't be ignored if we get a great offer to deal the pick. The Bears this year are where I want to be next year and that was all set up by dealing the #1 overall pick last year. They are in the catbirds seat for sure...and we ain't winning the SB in 2024. 

 

 

You keep using the trading up versus trading down analogy.  All that does is weaken your point not strengthen it.

 

We are picking 2nd.  We aren't trading up to pick 2nd.  We are actually there. 

 

5 hours ago, method man said:


Given how complicated offenses have gotten since then, I think it is even harder for a rookie to be a green dot LB day 1 (as the last moronic staff tried to do w Jamin). A veteran who has been around has become even more important. 
 

As examples, in this FA class, Al Shaair was the 3rd LB in SF and learned over 4 years before becoming the green dot in TN this past year. Similarly, Luvu just earned the green dot this year after years in the league as a special teamer in NYJ first.

 

Linebackers tend to take some time to develop, so no argument.  Part of the reason why a veteran is likely the better bet.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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1 hour ago, KDawg said:

If you think Maye/Daniels have the same accuracy issues Lamar/Allen had… I’m not sure what you’re watching. 

 

I'm still not positive why those comparisons keep getting made anyway. In college Allen was definitely less accurate than Maye but also much more of an off-script playmaker who shined the most when he had to create outside of the system. From what I can tell so far, while Maye can do that, he's better as more of an in-system pocket passer.

 

Lamar was a much worse passer in college than Daniels, but also a much more electric runner. Daniels is more of a straight line speed guy, while Lamar has the crazy lateral agility as well. I saw someone in a Tweet compare Daniels to RG3, which I think may be closer than Lamar. RG3 also had that straight line speed. They also both share a propensity for taking unnecessary hits. This is even more concerning with Daniels, given how thin his frame is.

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I am a Maye over Daniels guy and by a nice margin.

 

But I don't agree with the straight line speed drill that I've seen a little here and a little on twitter.  I think it comes from all the RG3 comparisons.  And I do think he looks like RG3 physique wise and the flick of the wrist deep ball throwing reminds me of him, too.  So if we are running with RG3 why not say the whole package is RG3?  I've made the comparison to RG3 the first time I watched him but...

 

But IMHO they are different type of runners.  Yes they both look like car crashes when they get hit.  But RG3 to my eyes looked slightly faster but will see at the combine.  And while RG3 was a straight line runner, Daniels has plenty of zig and zag lateral movement in open field and also including in the pocket.

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Accuracy does generally translate.  But there are some outliers. 
 

Quote

Accuracy

The most consistent quality from college to the NFL is accuracy. The most common statistic to determine accuracy is completion percentage. Of course, it does not completely account for accuracy because the simple calculation of completion percentage cannot account for the fact that certain quarterbacks attempt more difficult throws than others. While some sites attempt to consider the difficulty of pass attempts using a completion percentage over expected metric, the simple completion percentage stat is more accessible and simpler to use and understand. 
 

screen-shot-2021-04-09-at-10.17.50-pm.pn

Correlation: r = 0.368

 

The quarterbacks that were very accurate throwing the ball in college often had good accuracy in the NFL. The correlation coefficient (r) of 0.368 indicates a moderate correlation, although touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and yards per attempt all had lower values. There are numerous examples of players that were accurate in both college and the NFL, including Deshaun Watson, Teddy Bridgewater, and Russell Wilson. On other other hand, players like Derek Anderson and Michael Vick were not very accurate in college nor the NFL. There were only a few major outliers: Brandon Weeden and JaMarcus Russell were two players that were accurate in college but not in the NFL, while Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins were among the few that had average accuracy in college but superb accuracy in the NFL. For the 2021 quarterback prospects, this finding bodes well for Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields, who had the three best completion percentages of the prospects for this year. Conversely, Sam Ehlinger, Jamie Newman, and Kellen Mond had the three worst completion percentages of this year’s prospects, meaning they could struggle to be accurate in their NFL futures.


https://bestballstats.com/2021/04/17/nfl-draft-the-stats-that-correlate-to-quarterback-success/

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21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But IMHO they are different type of runners.  Yes they both look like car crashes when they get hit.  But RG3 to my eyes looked slightly faster but will see at the combine.  And while RG3 was a straight line runner, Daniels has plenty of zig and zag lateral movement in open field and also including in the pocket.

 

I don't like the straight line speed argument for him either. It looks like Daniels has very good wiggle as a runner to me as well.

There were plenty of cut ups from when he won the Heisman were his weaving ability and lateral movement is excellent. He seems very good at making guys miss and miss big in open field.

 

If he was in NFL street his "O Moves" rating would be great.

 

What he seems to lack is that protective instinct to finish a run by protecting himself rather than running until he is taken down. You can only bob n weave so long before somebody gets an angle. Lamar is really great at that. You rarely see Lamar get in car crashes not only b/c he is elusive, but b/c when he gets what he can get out of a play, he is more than willing to eat dirt at the end of a run before someone can lay the wood on him. He will even eat dirt in the backfield if he does not see anything there. This is a learnable skill, one Daniels has to acquire, and that will be the difference between a good run and a good run that ends in a car crash.

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First look at Tyler Guyton.  An even more raw Broderick Jones?  Really inconsistent at sustaining blocks both as a pass protector and as a run blocker.    At his best though, he looks really fluid, good athleticism.  Another project type IMO.  

 

 

 

 

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IMO DeShaun Watson is the NFL comparison for Daniels.  Kind of a middle class man's version of DeShaun.  He's skinnier and less aggressive and wasn't as good as early in his college career as DeShaun.  DeShaun is a risk taker who gets hit hard too.  I'll never forget the hit Reuben Foster put on him on a scramble in the CFP game that Clemson won in the final minute.  He popped back up from that right away and you could see it kind of broke Bama's spirit.

 

DeShaun without the personal demons (hopefully) feels like a really strong endorsement for Daniels.  It's why I like him as a top five pick. That third rounder nonsense about him is pure idiocy.

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3 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I don't like the straight line speed argument for him either. It looks like Daniels has very good wiggle as a runner to me as well.

There were plenty of cut ups from when he won the Heisman were his weaving ability and lateral movement is excellent. He seems very good at making guys miss and miss big in open field.

 

If he was in NFL street his "O Moves" rating would be great.

 

What he seems to lack is that protective instinct to finish a run by protecting himself rather than running until he is taken down. You can only bob n weave so long before somebody gets an angle. Lamar is really great at that. You rarely see Lamar get in car crashes not only b/c he is elusive, but b/c when he gets what he can get out of a play, he is more than willing to eat dirt at the end of a run before someone can lay the wood on him. He will even eat dirt in the backfield if he does not see anything there. This is a learnable skill, one Daniels has to acquire, and that will be the difference between a good run and a good run that ends in a car crash.

 

No doubt he doesn't protect himself.  He has some highlight runs like the one around the left hash against Florida where it was a very straight line looking run among some others but plenty of runs where he darts around defenders, zigs and zags and shows good vision.

 

If he had a different body type and protected himself better he might be #2 for me in this class but alas that's not the case.

 

To me I think the hardest adjustment for him will be when he's flushed out of the pocket, he can't almost always just take off.

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