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2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread


zCommander

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4 minutes ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

Fuaga will keep rising up the boards. He is similar to Darnell Wright in a way. I would argue a handful of teams would prefer him to Fashanu. Fashanu has a very high ceiling but his run blocking is pretty average at this point. 

Yeah.  I could see him being OL1 to be honest with you

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How is Fuaga’s arm length? I think he has the feet and movement skills to play tackle, but I’ve seen people say he could project as a guard. Also, our two 2nds should be able to get us back up to about pick 15 if we really want him. I’d be in favor of doing that and moving Jon Allen for a 3rd, which I suspect is all you’d get. 

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10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Interesting Hoffman saying he knows some of the scouts in the building preferred Gonzalez 

 

 


God. That’s the thing. Nobody here would have picked Forbes. Nobody would have taken Jamin Davis. Even those of us that liked the pick were talking ourselves into it because it had already happened. Everyone knew OL would be a problem. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more clueless personnel management. An entire forum of amateurs would have done better than a bunch of highly paid professionals that are supposed to know better. 
 

Thank God we are going to have professionals running the building now. 
 

I will say that really, the incompetence was a bit of a gift. Dan may have stuck around if we were winning. And we got the 2nd pick overall. That no doubt helped us recruit Peters and is going to help recruit a HC, so even if we miss with the pick, getting it was of enormous value. Nevermind the chance to potentially lock down the QB spot for the next 10 years. 

Edited by Anselmheifer
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14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Interesting Hoffman saying he knows some of the scouts in the building preferred Gonzalez 

 

 

 

I would be absolutely shocked if that wasn't true. Most people with eyes had Forbes way down the list. If every scout had Forbes as the #2 corner, then fire them all into the sun. They're all worthless.

 

I recently looked up my 2023 CB tier list of prospects and I had Forbes as Tier 4, way down the CB rankings. Ugghhh. My top 3 guys all had stellar rookie seasons. What a waste of an opportunity. These drafts will bite us in the ass as we try and rebuild. We've got very little residual talent that's young.

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1 minute ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 These drafts will bite us in the ass as we try and rebuild. We've got very little residual talent that's young.

What’s done is done. At least now we are on a good path. Assuming 50% hit rate in our picks and some big FA, UDFA hits I would think a rebuild should take 2 full seasons. 

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1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

Yeah.  I could see him being OL1 to be honest with you

 

I want to watch more of Alt to see if some games he flashes differently. Right now Fuaga is my #1 in a tier by himself, and then down a tier is Alt and Fashanu. All of them can still move up/down a bit from senior bowl/combine/etc but currently he just moves better into and through contact than the others.

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1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

I would be absolutely shocked if that wasn't true. Most people with eyes had Forbes way down the list. If every scout had Forbes as the #2 corner, then fire them all into the sun. They're all worthless.

 

I recently looked up my 2023 CB tier list of prospects and I had Forbes as Tier 4, way down the CB rankings. Ugghhh. My top 3 guys all had stellar rookie seasons. What a waste of an opportunity. These drafts will bite us in the ass as we try and rebuild. We've got very little residual talent that's young.

We don’t know yet if Forbes was  a mistake or not till we actually see how next year plays . We had an awful coaching staff . 

Edited by Commander202
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25 minutes ago, Commander202 said:

We don’t know yet if Forbes was  a mistake or not till we actually see how next year plays . We had an awful coaching staff . 

 

Yeah, I'm not counting out Forbes.  I was really down on Quan and he flashed big time during the end of the year.  I could see Quan being our 3rd best defender by next year honestly.

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1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

 

Yeah, I'm not counting out Forbes.  I was really down on Quan and he flashed big time during the end of the year.  I could see Quan being our 3rd best defender by next year honestly.

Forbes has a few traits that scare me in terms of tackling. I wouldn’t count anyone out until this defense has an identity. Jack/Ron’s defense was a soft zone that didn’t have any linebacker coverage underneath. I think a high school coach could have game planed for us last year.

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6 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

How is Fuaga’s arm length? I think he has the feet and movement skills to play tackle, but I’ve seen people say he could project as a guard. Also, our two 2nds should be able to get us back up to about pick 15 if we really want him. I’d be in favor of doing that and moving Jon Allen for a 3rd, which I suspect is all you’d get. 

 

That's selling ultra low on Allen.  And in trading the seconds, you're also losing the picks needed to find a credible replacement for him.  I'm tired of trading off our Probowl stud linemen for crap returns.  It's something that should never happen again.

 

I think I'm landing on a position of not packaging the seconds together unless it's to go up and get a bonafide star like Jared Verse or Brock Bowers.

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Don't know if this was posted (at least in this thread) but it's fitting...

 

 

Some of his follow up posts:

 

"Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success."

- 4,000+ passing yards in a season

- 30+ TDs in a season

- 80+ career starts

- Winning a playoff game

- Making the Pro Bowl

Here's what I found...

 

QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.

4,000+ yards: 70%

30+ TDs: 45%

80+ starts: 81%

Playoff win: 70%

Pro Bowl: 70%

 

Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards.

 

Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.

- 4,000+ yards: 25%

- 30+ TDs: 24%

- 80+ starts: 35%

- Playoff win: 38%

- Pro Bowl: 33%

 

Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit.

 

You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.

 

Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)

- 4,000+ yards: 29%

- 30+ TDs: 26%

- 80+ starts: 41%

- Playoff win: 54%

- Pro Bowl: 63%

 

Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)

- 4,000+ yards: 26%

- 30+ TDs: 22%

- 80+ starts: 39%

- Playoff win: 35%

- Pro Bowl: 43%

 

This chart visualizes how much safer a QB at No. 1 overall is compared to other first-round QBs.

 

 

image.png.28853889fb39be2e9acf2fbcacf836cd.png

 

 

Again, these are arbitrary marks. There are more and better ways to define "success." But if you want a QB who will throw for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, make a Pro Bowl, win a playoff game, and start for 5+ years, you're most likely to get that guy at 1.01.

 

****************

 

Bears should send this info to every team in the league lol...

 

It also doesn't take into consideration if those #1 overall picks accomplished these benchmarks with the team that drafted them.

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2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

That's selling ultra low on Allen.  And in trading the seconds, you're also losing the picks needed to find a credible replacement for him.  I'm tired of trading off our Probowl stud linemen for crap returns.  It's something that should never happen again.

 

I think I'm landing on a position of not packaging the seconds together unless it's to go up and get a bonafide star like Jared Verse or Brock Bowers.

 

I don't think any good tackles are going to land at #36 frankly.  Too many teams needs them and this draft has got them in spades.  We'll have to trade up huge to get someone like Fuaga and it will cost many of our day 2 capital.  The top tier (however you rank them) of Fuaga, Guyton, Alt, Fashanu, Latham, etc will be long gone.   I think I'm with you on targeting defense with those early 2nd rounders.  Now, I could see us taking a young guard with one of those two 2nd rounders since I think they will be around there.  I could also see us taking a top tier center at 36 and signing a vet guard in FA to pair help that center along with Cosmi and Caleb/Drake assuming the new staff doesn't warm to Stromberg. Stromberg was also thought by the previous staff to be playing well at guard.  I wonder if he gets shot at LG?   

 

We are going to have to spend in FA for a credible RT.  Do we spend big bucks on Tyron Smith and ask him to be the RT (somewhere he has never played) as a stopgap?  He's injury prone, but he's basically like Whitworth at his stage of his career when the Rams got him.  Dallas is going to have to let him go as they are in a cap crunch with looming extensions f or Lamb and Parsons.   

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11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:


God. That’s the thing. Nobody here would have picked Forbes. Nobody would have taken Jamin Davis. Even those of us that liked the pick were talking ourselves into it because it had already happened. Everyone knew OL would be a problem. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more clueless personnel management. An entire forum of amateurs would have done better than a bunch of highly paid professionals that are supposed to know better. 
 

Thank God we are going to have professionals running the building now. 
 

I will say that really, the incompetence was a bit of a gift. Dan may have stuck around if we were winning. And we got the 2nd pick overall. That no doubt helped us recruit Peters and is going to help recruit a HC, so even if we miss with the pick, getting it was of enormous value. Nevermind the chance to potentially lock down the QB spot for the next 10 years. 

 

This is one of the better posts I've read.  You are right, after the fact I did try to talk myself into like the Forbes and Davis picks. I told myself to trust the pros and disregard all we have read.  We all know how fortunate we are to getting rid of Dan and Ron while obtaining the 2nd pick in the draft. Never really thought to put the Forbes pick into the equation but you may be right.  If we had won just one more game, and maybe Forbes over Gonzales produced the loss, then it was a great long term pick as it helped us obtain Peters and perhaps the QB to build around.  

Edited by Darrell Green Fan
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45 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@mhd24 I’m the the OL can be fixed up a bit with a couple tweaks and better coaching. But I can’t see this FO going QB at 2 and then not emphasizing OL. We’ll likely go BPA to an extent but I’m trusting these guys to find a couple solid OL- options in the draft. 

 

Oh, I think we'll take an OL with one of those early second rounders, just that it'll likely be an IOL vs tackle.  Frankly, the LG & C positions killed us last year.  

 

The top tier tackles are going to be long gone.  I don't see anyone slipping to 36.  At that stage, we're looking at Patrick Paul and the Yale T.  We've already had bad experiences with Chris Paul, so I don't think Patrick Paul is going to intrigue us.  Better to see if any of the top centers or IOL make it to 36.

 

Heck, Carolina (33), Arizona (34, and NE (35) all need OL help too.  

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