2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[ThatNFLChick]

The reports about the in-person interviews are going to be so interesting. I expect Michael Penix to really shine there - everyone loves hin and he's a huge team guy (stitching all of his teammates names into his coat for the Heisman ceremony) and I honestly don't have any idea how the top 3 will do. Obviously there are rumors about Williams so curious to see how that goes, Maye seems somewhat quiet but well liked (I remember one of the knocks on Herbert was that he wasn't fiery or vocal enough) and Daniels will have to field questions about his weight and ability to protect himself. 

[clskinsfan]

14 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

so take the King's ransome of picks and turn them into multiple pieces.

Then what do we do about QB?

12 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

1. Payton Wilson NC State *Nobody is really that close IMO

I agree with you. Wonder how far his medicals make him fall?

[ThatNFLChick]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Then what do we do about QB?

I agree with you. Wonder how far his medicals make him fall?

 

Let's say the Bears take Caleb Williams What if the Cardinals want to trade from #4 to #2 to ensure they get Marvin Harrison Jr. Do you make that trade? It still means that either Maye or Daniels will be there at #4. 

Edited January 6 by ThatNFLChick

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

If he can’t learn to operate reliably in structure

He operates in structure at an elite level WHEN HE WANTS TOO. This is an excellent vid on Caleb. It goes into his elite processing and decision making. It shows how he turns down easy throws the defense gives him to look for the big play. But when he wants to play in structure his decision making and arm make him incredibly dangerous. Because he throws the ball so hard it gives his playmakers extra time to avoid initial hits and gain more yardage. It really is a great vid if you are into all 22 type stuff. And anyone into that should watch this vid. Caleb Williams is a dangerous weapon. And he is even more dangerous when he plays in structure.

 

3 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Let's say the Bears take Caleb Williams What if the Cardinals want to trade from #4 to #2 to ensure they get Marvin Harrison Jr. Do you make that trade? It still means that either Maye or Daniels will be there at #4. 

Probably not. Because I consider Maye a far better prospect than Daniels. But it would depend on the haul we got as well. 

[KDawg]

14 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Let's say the Bears take Caleb Williams What if the Cardinals want to trade from #4 to #2 to ensure they get Marvin Harrison Jr. Do you make that trade? It still means that either Maye or Daniels will be there at #4. 

I would… but I’d be afraid we’d get stuck with Maye.

[DWinzit]

This site will be bonkers if Maye or Daniels is selected with the first pick...And I do not think that is far fetched.

 

15 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Let's say the Bears take Caleb Williams What if the Cardinals want to trade from #4 to #2 to ensure they get Marvin Harrison Jr. Do you make that trade? It still means that either Maye or Daniels will be there at #4. 

That's up the new regime. Who are they comfortable having as their future starting QB...assuming that's what they want and need on draft day

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, Coopskin44 said:

    Can you really say that anyone of the so called top QB’s of this draft are cant  miss or we need to take one of the 3?I just don’t see any of the 3 worth picking that high.I was at the Notre Dame game vs USC and Williams got his ass handed to him and was completely frustrated.Maye makes some decisions that you just shake your head and Daniels is just to green.To many holes to fill I’m for trade back more picks get a QB later in the 1st or early 2nd.Just my opinion I know it won’t happen but I know some exciting times are ahead.

I'm leaning towards your way of thinking but only if we get an incredible offer for the #2 pick that is too good to refuse while knowing their is another QB who we really like that we can move up to get later in round one. If we deal out of #2 we will have plenty of ammunition to move around in multiple rounds if we want to which will give us even more flexibility to jump up or back to get other players that we really want. 

28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Then what do we do about QB?

I agree with you. Wonder how far his medicals make him fall?

What we do about QB is A). take one of the guys who falls later into round one or even round 2, B). Continue to evaluate Sam with a new staff and better offensive line to support him.

I keep going back to Darius Slay's comments about Howell and how impressed he was. That's no small thing in my book. Bring in a new staff, clear Sam's head and see what you have next season after he gained the year of experience he got this season. And add more weapons in free agency/draft to help him and the kid we draft out. 

[HTTRDynasty]

45 minutes ago, TrustTheProcessHTTR said:

. All the height talk is dumb imo bc just like the NBA certain players play above their height and some don't. Howell doesnt play above but Caleb does. 

I mean, height does matter for QBs. That’s just a fact. Unless you have the rare ability to consistently find open windows without scrambling like Brees, and that’s because he knew the playbook better than his coaches. 
 

I mean, I’m slightly in awe that Tua can see anything going on outside of the pocket based on the clip below (and remember, the camera is actually higher than his eyes are).  It’s very easy to understand why someone like Kyler Murray has to scramble around so often in order to be effective. 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

25 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

take one of the guys who falls later into round one or even round 2, B). Continue to evaluate Sam

I am gonna pass on both of these options. If we were picking out of the top 5? Maybe. But we arent. 

[FuriousD]

18 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I would… but I’d be afraid we’d get stuck with Maye.

“Get stuck with Maye” is a very odd/curious choice of words considering he could be the safest of the three overall. Add to that the move from 4 to 2 would cost a 1st rd pick (20th approx) or multiple 2nd/3rd rd picks in this or next years draft and this hypothetical trade scenario would go down as one of the teams greatest ever

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

15 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Thought this was an interesting chart.  No surprise both Maye and Williams charted better in 2022. The view that 2023 Daniels is viewed as a better passer, but less athletic version of Lamar Jackson holds up as well. 
 

This chart clearly didn’t translate as it relates to predicting Justin Herbert’s success in the pros.  
 

 

 

1st Chart:

I disagree with the comparisons he's making. Trevor Lawrence's EPA dot grouping is nowhere near Drake Maye, somehow Mahomes is but that's also a terrible playstyle comp. Michael Penix would compare more favorably with CJ Stroud than Winston, as both Penix and Stroud were throwing to a good WR group, and the playstyles match up a bit better.

Look at Russell Wilson's dots in comparison to Caleb Williams. Minus the 2022 season for Williams, they're fairly comparable.

 

2nd Chart:

Unfortunately doesn't include Penix.

Caleb Williams looks fairly comparable on an EPA per play basis for pass, run, and sack to Russell Wilson across multiple years. This is starting to look like a really good comp.

Drake Maye's sacks are less harmful than Caleb Williams sacks, it looks like Williams just takes sacks in brutal moments.

Bo Nix keeps looking like premier backup potential. The guy you want to draft if you think you have an injury prone starter. If the Giants can't land their guy in the draft, I could see them going Nix on Day 2.

Drake Maye's EPA per play for run/pass/sack and volume (for 2022 but not 2023) are close to Mahomes last 2 college seasons. They don't play the same styles, but the outcomes are surprisingly similar.

 

Would we draft Russell Wilson +2 inches with the 2nd overall pick in the draft?

Would we draft CJ Stroud +injury risk with the 2nd overall pick?

Would we draft a Patrick Mahomes +2 inches but had more offensive help with the 2nd overall pick?

 

The Mahomes and Maye comp doesn't feel quite right, especially since Maye had an actual running game to complement him while Mahomes had absolutely nothing. Mahomes was the leading rusher on his team with 28 more attempts than the top running back, while Maye's running back had more than double his attempts. The high scoring offense Mahomes led was solely because of Mahomes. While Maye had more help on the ground.

 

For weapons, Mahomes best WR's were drafted in the 4th, 6th, and 6th rounds, while Maye's current best WR's is talked about as a possible 2nd rounder, and his best WR's for his best college season in 2022 were drafted in the 3rd and 7th rounds. With that 3rd rounder producing a better rookie season in the NFL than any of the guys Mahomes threw to. Production on a per play basis might be similar, but Mahomes was more of the offense and had less help than Maye.

[KDawg]

20 minutes ago, FuriousD said:

“Get stuck with Maye” is a very odd/curious choice of words considering he could be the safest of the three overall. Add to that the move from 4 to 2 would cost a 1st rd pick (20th approx) or multiple 2nd/3rd rd picks in this or next years draft and this hypothetical trade scenario would go down as one of the teams greatest ever

Not a big fan as a top three selection. So no, not an odd set of words for my preferences.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

29 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I mean, height does matter for QBs. That’s just a fact. Unless you have the rare ability to consistently find open windows without scrambling like Brees, and that’s because he knew the playbook better than his coaches. 
 

I mean, I’m slightly in awe that Tua can see anything going on outside of the pocket based on the clip below (and remember, the camera is actually higher than his eyes are).  It’s very easy to understand why someone like Kyler Murray has to scramble around so often in order to be effective. 

 

 

 

 

The Saints also really prioritized IOL for Drew Brees. Routinely gave out monster Guard contracts in free agency (Ben Grubbs), had a likely Hall of Famer at Guard for a bit too (Jahri Evans). They traded for a pro-bowl Center at one point (Max Unger). They drafted Centers in the 2nd and 1st round as Brees got older.

 

Some QB playstyles really benefit from a strong IOL the most.

 

If you note, Tua's stats have kind of fallen off lately as the IOL got weaker. A starting Guard and Center are on IR now. In fairness part of that is also Tyreek Hill being banged up. But Tua is averaging only 1 TD and 3 Sacks a game in the past 4 games, yet prior to that he was averaging 2 TD's and 0.7 Sacks a game. Combination of factors hurt, and for a short QB that's not mobile, the IOL weakness is slowing them down.

[clskinsfan]

19 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Minus the 2022 season for Williams

So you are going to ignore his Heisman winning season? Bwahahahaaha!

[ThatNFLChick]

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

This site will be bonkers if Maye or Daniels is selected with the first pick...And I do not think that is far fetched.

 

That's up the new regime. Who are they comfortable having as their future starting QB...assuming that's what they want and need on draft day

 

LOL nobody is considering it but its definitely a possibility. 

 

Last year the Panthers were supposedly torn on Stroud or Young but ultimately picked Bryce Young over CJ Stroud for two reasons - Dave Tepper and his wife really liked him when they met him and he scored off the charts on the S2. 

[Jumbo]

Intelligent but passionate debate and discussion on the QB position for this team, and by more than just a few people, is like a beautiful dream compared to what is more the norm on the matter. 🙂🙂🙂

 

 My appreciation to the participants. 👍🤓

 

We've had historically epic dunderhead campaigns waxing on the matter and over the years it can wear me down 😁

 

I barely survived the year of the hive and having Ron managing the QB position. 😛

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

So you are going to ignore his Heisman winning season? Bwahahahaaha!

 

You know that's not the takeaway from that statement, and you know you're interpreting it incorrectly. But to really make it clear, here you go:

 

 

And if you're still unclear about that comp I made from the 2nd chart, here it is spelled out. There's a lot of similarities between them.

 

 

You can also compare volume vs per play for responsibility shouldering the load, judge supporting casts, etc. Have fun!

[skinsmania123]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Compare then protection he had at both as well. His line in Washington is amazing. He would get obliterated behind this OL. At least Williams, Maye or Daniels would be able to scramble themselves into protection. 

I am not 100% sure how he would do behind our line.  But I think the further he gets away from those devastating injuries the stronger he seems to get. He is two years removed now from those injuries. He definitely has wheels.  I saw that against Texas. He has the speed and explosiveness needed to create first downs with his legs and seems to have learned when to go down to avoid big hits.  Obviously if he does well on Monday, he is going to shoot up the draft board.  I can't see Washington beating Michigan, but it does not mean he will not play well. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Ja’Tavion Sanders declared. I guess he is considered a R1 prospect so maybe he doesn’t get to R2. But if he does, would be a tempting option. 

[Jumbo]

24 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

You know that's not the takeaway from that statement, and you know you're interpreting it incorrectly. But to really make it clear, here you go:

 

 

And if you're still unclear about that comp I made from the 2nd chart, here it is spelled out. There's a lot of similarities between them.

 

 

You can also compare volume vs per play for responsibility shouldering the load, judge supporting casts, etc. Have fun!

 All that hurt my head a little. 🤫

[xxprodigyxx]

1 hour ago, FuriousD said:

“Get stuck with Maye” is a very odd/curious choice of words considering he could be the safest of the three overall. Add to that the move from 4 to 2 would cost a 1st rd pick (20th approx) or multiple 2nd/3rd rd picks in this or next years draft and this hypothetical trade scenario would go down as one of the teams greatest ever

unless we hypothetically pass on the next justin herbert (whoever that is). it'll be chase young angst in this forum all over again.

[Anselmheifer]

 

Mel Kiper really likes Jayden Daniel’s here and says that some teams have him as QB1.

[Jumbo]

2 hours ago, DWinzit said:

This site will be bonkers if Maye or Daniels is selected with the first pick...And I do not think that is far fetched.

 

Of course it's not. The site going bonkers on the topic of QBs has been s thing throughout its history. 😀

 

Look at the feverish pitch just the previous season over championing somebody who's ability level even as a short term back up is highly limited. The same venue will then have multiple members who will dramatically overdo the minimization of the playing ability of a Kirk Cousins.  

 

QBs quickly become an even more glandular-driven topic than normal for we extremists. 😁

[DWinzit]

36 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 All that hurt my head a little. 🤫

As long as no one starts pointing at the chart saying we "see, we should have kept TH" 🤮

[Ghost of]

Unfortunately several key changes in both the college and pro game have made it harder (and in some ways,  easier) to understand the pro potential of QBs. It used to be besides Peyton you could basically dismiss SEC QB prospects. You could just about always dismiss option QBs, then Run n Shoot variants like Andre Ware. Now I don't really know. I remember objections re Sam Bradford and looking to the sideline for playcalls (less so the offensive system.)

 

Now I'm confused and that big chart confuses me more.  So I'd rather go on intuition mixed with physical tools. I don't know enough about Maye to comment.  I really like both QBs in the national title game. They both seem like fantastic teammates from good organizational cultures AND great physical talent. Penix can move and throw with touch anywhere on the field. Cool as a Cucumber and has command of the offense.  McCarthy is probably top 2 of QBs career wise to ever play at Michigan and it's clear he puts team ahead of his stats or profile.  He's mobile, a winner and can make NFL window throws but less so than Penix. He also has not had elite NFL talent at wideout but has had a tendency to make plays that win games when up against the wall.  In a league with Daniel Jones, I don't see why he wouldn't have more potential.

 

Something about Caleb Williams is appealing but ultimately he just seems less likely to blow up positively but I can imagine him having a really good early career due to his talent and extending plays.

 

I would like an analysis of what contributes to a QB success from college to pro aside from the various derivatives that might be in use. Does organizational culture matter? How do we define a regime in college? Does Caleb Williams need to be understood as someone almost crippled by being at USC vs. even a Louisville? What made Buckeye QBs such a guaranteed miss in the NFL across multiple regimes and offensive systems? (And now seems to have changed with Stroud. I won't count Burrow since he did his thing at LSU)

Edited January 7 by Ghost of