hail2skins Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 19 minutes ago, Simmsy said: Its not bad for Biden, just like its not good for Trump. Dems have overperformed in the polls for over six years, don't know why you want to chaing yourself to polling months out. Biden won the 2020 election, but did not overperform the polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 7 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said: —— looking great guys. Full speed ahead. All the polls are wrong, no reason to take caution going into an election that is going to have massive impacts for the next 50 years why should we care what our own voters think? if they don’t already love us then **** them, right? Would've been nice if your poll would've included that fact that it includes 3rd party candidates not shown on that graph and includes non-voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 (edited) 12 minutes ago, samy316 said: Sorry to burst your little bubble, but if AIPAC has its hooks on Biden, chances are that they definitely have their hooks in on Harris. In fact there’s this: So one issue isn’t resolved by Biden’s biggest weakness with voters is addressed. It’s still a win 2 minutes ago, Simmsy said: Would've been nice if your poll would've included that fact that it includes 3rd party candidates not shown on that graph and includes non-voters. lol does that change anything? No. Since some of those candidates will be on the ballots in those states. Nothing will ever convince you there is cause for concern. You find a reason to ignore literally everything Edited July 15 by Momma There Goes That Man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 @samy316 That's a dumb take. Being 2 decades younger than the other candidate far outweighs the stupid nits about her being a prosecutor and getring funded by AIPAC (her husband is Jewish). The energy and optics (contrasted to Biden) will be major get out the vote positives. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purbeast Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Can someone explain the logic to me behind the whole "this shooting guarantees Trump victory in November" like I am a 5 year old? I am not understanding how this would change anyone's mind and would like it explained to me like I'm a child. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Just now, purbeast said: Can someone explain the logic to me behind the whole "this shooting guarantees Trump victory in November" like I am a 5 year old? I am not understanding how this would change anyone's mind and would like it explained to me like I'm a child. people that are undecided may select Trump for sympathy, if they feel Dems targeted their opponent through messaging, it makes him look strong etc. several reasons to think it might impact undecided voters but nobody really knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 minute ago, Momma There Goes That Man said: So one issue isn’t resolved by Biden’s biggest weakness with voters is addressed. It’s still a win lol does that change anything? No. Since some of those candidates will be on the ballots in those states. Of course it would. You don't think people who aren't registered and aren't going to vote for someone not on the ballot wouldn't sway results? Just now, purbeast said: Can someone explain the logic to me behind the whole "this shooting guarantees Trump victory in November" like I am a 5 year old? I am not understanding how this would change anyone's mind and would like it explained to me like I'm a child. Hit yourself in the head with a rock and start handwringing...you'll get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 13 minutes ago, hail2skins said: Biden won the 2020 election, but did not overperform the polls. they say this all the time. 2022 was pretty accurate polling going into the election. Only Rs were saying landslide red wave etc they weren’t realistic about their candidates and the situation they were in same thing with 2020 etc also, counting on polls being heavily wrong in your favor every time is not a recipe for success. Just now, Simmsy said: Of course it would. You don't think people who aren't registered and aren't going to vote for someone not on the ballot wouldn't sway results? it speaks to the quality of those candidates and what is breaking through and the preference of people not actively engaged in politics which aligns with many actual voters. It’s not as good as likely voters but it still matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 33 minutes ago, Simmsy said: Its not bad for Biden, just like its not good for Trump. Dems have overperformed in the polls for over six years, don't know why you want to chaing yourself to polling months out. Once again, this is an election thread, not the "...but Clooney said...", thread. Talking about Biden stepping down needs to be its own thread at this point. I don't appreciate the gatekeeping on this topic. All the polls are just devastating to Biden. And it's clear from the polling why Biden is not as competitive as 2020. And it's clear that the debate changed things. Did you watch the debate? Multiple Biden backers in here had the same thought... "oh ****, he's done!". Hoping the polls are wrong? You mean the ones that show a huge enthusiasm gap? This isn't some media driven conspiracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Wiggles Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, purbeast said: Can someone explain the logic to me behind the whole "this shooting guarantees Trump victory in November" like I am a 5 year old? I am not understanding how this would change anyone's mind and would like it explained to me like I'm a child. Well even Emperor Palpatines was viewed favorably after the evil jedi tried to assassinate him. 🤷🏻♂️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins24 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, purbeast said: Can someone explain the logic to me behind the whole "this shooting guarantees Trump victory in November" like I am a 5 year old? I am not understanding how this would change anyone's mind and would like it explained to me like I'm a child. 2 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said: people that are undecided may select Trump for sympathy, if they feel Dems targeted their opponent through messaging, it makes him look strong etc. several reasons to think it might impact undecided voters but nobody really knows I don't think this really changes the needle all that much on the truly undecided. I do think it does however from undecided or on the fence repubs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 minutes ago, Simmsy said: Of course it would. You don't think people who aren't registered and aren't going to vote for someone not on the ballot wouldn't sway results? also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purbeast Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 8 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said: people that are undecided may select Trump for sympathy, if they feel Dems targeted their opponent through messaging, it makes him look strong etc. several reasons to think it might impact undecided voters but nobody really knows So because a convicted felon, rapist, traitor, liar, adulterer .... was shot at ... that cancels out all of the negatives? The logic is still not computing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 But, if the mods do want us to have a "Should he stay or should he go: Biden" thread... I am fine moving the discussion there. I do agree that it is dominating on the Dem side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 minute ago, Fergasun said: I don't appreciate the gatekeeping on this topic. All the polls are just devastating to Biden. And it's clear from the polling why Biden is not as competitive as 2020. And it's clear that the debate changed things. Did you watch the debate? Multiple Biden backers in here had the same thought... "oh ****, he's done!". Hoping the polls are wrong? You mean the ones that show a huge enthusiasm gap? This isn't some media driven conspiracy. Its not gate keeping, Biden said he isn't stepping down. End of story. When he steps down, then there is a story. As much as you think, want hope he should/would/could step down, its not going to happen. Whining about it here won't make it happen, its been discussed to death. If something new happens...like...Biden decides to step down, then lets have a conversation. Until then, we've had this conversation. Hell, since the debate we've had a shooting, immunity ruling, a dismissed case and you guys are still harping on this...even the media has let up for a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said: also: But I thought Biden was costing the down ballot seats? Now I'm confused. Swear someone just posted that argument. Edit..fwiw I have a hard time comprehending someone voting down ballot Dem and then not voting same party (Biden) at the top. Edited July 15 by The Evil Genius 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 13 minutes ago, purbeast said: Can someone explain the logic to me behind the whole "this shooting guarantees Trump victory in November" like I am a 5 year old? I am not understanding how this would change anyone's mind and would like it explained to me like I'm a child. People are dumb animals that let emotions and other random **** cloud their judgement. it’s not supposed to be a rational thing that makes sense when you’re analyzing things. It’s an observation of how people tend to behave. 4 minutes ago, Simmsy said: Its not gate keeping, Biden said he isn't stepping down. End of story. When he steps down, then there is a story. As much as you think, want hope he should/would/could step down, its not going to happen. Whining about it here won't make it happen, its been discussed to death. If something new happens...like...Biden decides to step down, then lets have a conversation. Until then, we've had this conversation. Hell, since the debate we've had a shooting, immunity ruling, a dismissed case and you guys are still harping on this...even the media has let up for a little bit. that’s what gate keeping is. You deciding what everyone else gets to take about. The why you use, and how much you believe it, is irrelevant. You’re trying to control the entire conversation by (for some stupid reason) barring a specific topic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 (edited) Just wait til Project 2025 tax changes gets fully dissected to the average voter. People aren't going to want to pay 2500+ more in taxes a year. Edited July 15 by The Evil Genius 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busch1724 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 19 minutes ago, purbeast said: Can someone explain the logic to me behind the whole "this shooting guarantees Trump victory in November" like I am a 5 year old? I am not understanding how this would change anyone's mind and would like it explained to me like I'm a child. Don't think it'll change minds, but I would think it'll help turnout for Trump and therefore impact down ballot races. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, purbeast said: So because a convicted felon, rapist, traitor, liar, adulterer .... was shot at ... that cancels out all of the negatives? The logic is still not computing. His negatives have no bearing at all to his base and likely many more of those on the fence, which is not exactly earth-shattering news I know. For me, America is just uniquely obtuse/ignorant in this regard. Right or wrong behavior does not seem to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Just wait til Project 2025 tax changes gets fully dissected to the average voter. People aren't going to want to pay 2500+ more in taxes a year. Was curious as to whether the 168k mark that divided the 15 and 30 percent brackets were for individuals or for married filing jointly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purbeast Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said: His negatives have no bearing at all to his base and likely many more of those on the fence, which is not exactly earth-shattering news I know. For me, America is just uniquely obtuse/ignorant in this regard. Right or wrong behavior does not seem to matter. If his negatives have no bearing to someone, they aren't on the fence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 minute ago, hail2skins said: Was curious as to whether the 168k mark that divided the 15 and 30 percent brackets were for individuals or for married filing jointly Believe it doesn't differentiate. But the proposed 15% is a 2600 increase for the average couple with 2 kids making 100k right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 9 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Just wait til Project 2025 tax changes gets fully dissected to the average voter. People aren't going to want to pay 2500+ more in taxes a year. Ain't no way this happens though. GOP ain't dumb enough and they be forced to put in details, etc. Goodness knows how pissed the blue states still are over the last Fed tax changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 29 minutes ago, purbeast said: Can someone explain the logic to me behind the whole "this shooting guarantees Trump victory in November" like I am a 5 year old? I am not understanding how this would change anyone's mind and would like it explained to me like I'm a child. Independents win elections. The majority here are Democrats. I am a Republican. We are set in our ways and our votes almost all of the time. Independents are not. And a near assassination will definitely increase Trumps votes with the them. Add in the Republicans enthusiasm gap when it comes to their candidate and it is most likely a bad time to be a Dem candidate in all but solidly blue districts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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