Election 2024 & Presidential Cage Match: Dark Brandon 46 vs Felonious Farty 45

[TradeTheBeal!]

Of the top of my head, I think Minnesota has maybe a quarter million Muslims living there…most of which originate from Somalia.

 

Could be wrong…

[PleaseBlitz]

Yea, I think the Minnesota "uncommitted" vote was largely organized by pro-Palestinian organizers among MN's very large Muslim population and geared towards influencing Biden's Israel policy in the near-term.  While I certainly respect their right to a protest vote, I can't really see them voting for the "Muslim Ban" guy in November or even staying home.

Edited March 6 by PleaseBlitz

[Fergasun]

https://sahanjournal.com/democracy-politics/abandon-biden-uncommitted-vote-minnesota-primary/

 

Above is a good article.  I am still convinced "Abandon Biden" is a right wing dark money (or even Russian or foreign) dark money funded movement. 

Quote

Salam said he’s well aware that the effort could lead to another Trump presidency. Salam said he is anti-Trump, disliking him so much during his presidency that he rarely uttered his name out loud.   “I find him distasteful,” Salam said of Trump. “He prevented our friends and family and colleagues from entering the country. But Mr. Biden killed them.”  A vote for Biden this fall would “reward” that behavior, Salam reasoned. 

Blaming Biden for the post Oct 7 Israel response is just.... especially since I am sure Bibi would prefer Trump.

 

But "Biden killed them"?

[PleaseBlitz]

Also starting to get somewhat interested in the TX senate race.  Obviously, Texas is a bit pie-in-the-sky, but Ted Cruz seems to get more and more unpopular as the years go by and Colin Allred is pretty impressive and could certainly appeal to the TX tough guy ethos. 

 

Some early polls have Cruz up huge (like 14 points).  Others have it as a dead heat right now.  

[PeterMP]

2 hours ago, Simmsy said:

Biden is the ACTUAL incumbent, he won the last election, why would Dems need to come out and vote for him in the primary when he IS the Dem's guy. Dems don't need to come out for Biden in the primary because he actually beats any other option handedly. I don't understand why so many of you want to put an asterisk on everything Trump does, why do you move the goalposts for him? Once again, look at the history of the results: Trump is a loser. His name on a ballot is a loser, its been that way since 2016, his ONLY election win. Seriously, you think Trump is suddenly going to carry VA now? Based skewed primary results? When Biden loses a primary state or consistently loses a third of the vote to anything else...then you can talk to me about primary results. It just feels to me that some of you bend over backwards to find anyway to give Trump a positive where there is none. Trump is winning the primary, but he is far from "cruising".

 

"Tonight, pretty much running as an incumbent president and against only one other person still in the race, he's pulling 65 percent of the vote in VA. "

 

You can't have it both ways.  Either Trump is essentially equivalent to Biden (essentially an incumbent) in which case comparing vote totals between the two is reasonable.  Or he's not, in which case comparing him to 2016 Trump is reasonable.

 

And either way, he's doing really well.  If he's essentially Biden, that's good for Trump because it appears he's out competing Biden now.  If he's not comparable to Biden (and not essentially an incumbent), then that's still good for Trump because he's still easily out preforming 2016 Trump and he won the GE that year.

 

You're making two different arguments that contradict one another.

 

And again, the national polls look very good for Trump.  And the pollsters got the MI primary pretty much right.

 

To me, it seems you are ignoring all of the "good" news for Trump by making contradictory arguments and ignoring the data that is good for Trump w/o any reason really other than you don't like it.  The loser talk is also just nonsense.  His name is on the ballot in all of these primaries, and he's winning easily.  He's won as many Presidential elections as Biden on fewer tries.  And if he had wanted to be a Senator or something, he could have absolutely moved to some red state 2 years agon and won.

2 hours ago, tshile said:

@PeterMP

the only thing I’ll add is my experience the last few days… the number of people that didn’t know there was an election and/or that it’s not limited to people officially registered to the Republican Party… I’m skeptical if any of my friends actually voted …

 My favorite is when someone who complains about politics all the time, has a laundry list of reasons why they couldn’t vote. 

 

Taking anything from a primary is hard as I said initially.  I'd not overly look at these results with any significance and only made my comment because there was the claim that the primary results are bad for Trump and are evidence that the general polls are wrong.

 

I'd really not be comfortable drawing any conclusion from these results, but if anything if I'm running the Trump campaign, I'm pretty happy.  You can say Trump is running as an incumbent in which case the results look pretty good (he's out doing Biden in states Biden has to win), or he's not an incumbent (he's easily out performing 2016 Trump in the primary and that was good enough to win the GE).  Either way, it is a good look.

[Ball Security]

3 hours ago, PeterMP said:

Trump got over 100K more votes in VA than Biden in a state that Biden must win in Nov to win the Presidential election.

 

In MI, even if you throw in the ~100K Democrat uncommitted vote Trump still out gained Biden.

 

(It is hard to pull much meaning out of these for the GE because the turnout will be much higher for the GE, but anybody looking at those numbers and thinking Trump is weak or that the general polls are wrong are deluding themselves IMO.  I'll note that the polls in MI pretty much nailed the out come of he MI primary.  If I'm working for the Trump campaign, I'm feeling pretty good.)

 

I would think Trump only having 100k more votes than Biden in VA would be concerning for Trump. I read (admittedly not positive of the source) that Fairfax County only had a 10% turnout and that Hailey won the Republican primary vote.

 

Slightly over 1M people voted in the primary. 4.375M voted in the 2020 election. 2.4M voted for Biden. 346k voted in the Democratic primary.

[TheGreatBuzz]

2 hours ago, ixcuincle said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39663644/republican-steve-garvey-vie-us-senate-seat-calif

 

LOS ANGELES -- Former Major League Baseball MVP Steve Garvey is advancing to a November election to fill the U.S. Senate seat held for three decades by the late Dianne Feinstein, a rare opportunity for the GOP to compete in a marquee statewide race in a Democratic stronghold.

 

Garvey, a 10-time All-Star who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, will face Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff.

 

"Let's celebrate," Garvey told his supporters Tuesday night. "Welcome to the California comeback."

 

"What you all are feeling tonight is what it's like to hit a walk-off home run. Kind of like San Diego in 1984."

 

Garvey famously hit a walk-off home run off Lee Smith in Game 4 to keep the Padres alive in the 1984 National League Championship Series against the Chicago Cubs. San Diego then won Game 5, and Garvey was named series MVP.

 

Hall of Fame Orioles pitcher Jim Palmer is supporting him. I'm going to have fun pushing back against that.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

Nikki dropping out tomorrow. Which is weird, when you don't actually stand for anything, will anyone notice you are gone?

 

Also lol at GOPers who are happy that Garvey made it through. They all hate Schiff with a burning passion and he'll win 65% of the vote come November. They'd have been better off giving him a real challenger in Porter. 

 

That was a brilliant move on his part. Slimy and underhanded, but some good, old-fashioned politics. 

[Simmsy]

6 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

"Tonight, pretty much running as an incumbent president and against only one other person still in the race, he's pulling 65 percent of the vote in VA. "

 

You can't have it both ways.  Either Trump is essentially equivalent to Biden (essentially an incumbent) in which case comparing vote totals between the two is reasonable.  Or he's not, in which case comparing him to 2016 Trump is reasonable.

 

And either way, he's doing really well.  If he's essentially Biden, that's good for Trump because it appears he's out competing Biden now.  If he's not comparable to Biden (and not essentially an incumbent), then that's still good for Trump because he's still easily out preforming 2016 Trump and he won the GE that year.

 

You're making two different arguments that contradict one another.

 

And again, the national polls look very good for Trump.  And the pollsters got the MI primary pretty much right.

 

To me, it seems you are ignoring all of the "good" news for Trump by making contradictory arguments and ignoring the data that is good for Trump w/o any reason really other than you don't like it.  The loser talk is also just nonsense.  His name is on the ballot in all of these primaries, and he's winning easily.  He's won as many Presidential elections as Biden on fewer tries.  And if he had wanted to be a Senator or something, he could have absolutely moved to some red state 2 years agon and won.

 

Taking anything from a primary is hard as I said initially.  I'd not overly look at these results with any significance and only made my comment because there was the claim that the primary results are bad for Trump and are evidence that the general polls are wrong.

 

I'd really not be comfortable drawing any conclusion from these results, but if anything if I'm running the Trump campaign, I'm pretty happy.  You can say Trump is running as an incumbent in which case the results look pretty good (he's out doing Biden in states Biden has to win), or he's not an incumbent (he's easily out performing 2016 Trump in the primary and that was good enough to win the GE).  Either way, it is a good look.

 

I said Biden is the ACTUAL incumbent for a reason, he is the actual incumbent. Trump is not the incumbent. What I said, is that the GOP is treating Trump like he is and he IS their guy. Hell, Trump just had an interview where he wouldn't even admit he lost the election, he thinks he is the incumbent and the GOP are treating him as such.

 

That being said, if he is THE GUY, losing states to someone else is not doing well. You can't spin that in his favor, we all knew he was going to win the primary. His numbers should be higher. 

 

I feel like we have the same argument over and over again, Trump's name on the ballot loses the GOP elections. You keep saying that him winning the primary is good for him, like I said, that is expected, but he should be winning by more. He is unpopular, highly unpopular. If Biden got those percentages (not numbers, percentages) I would be worried. If he lost a state to Nikki Haley, I would be worried. If a third of the party said they wouldn't vote for him, I would be worried. What are these good things? I don't see them.

 

I don't even know where to begin with you saying that Trump winning on his first try means anything, sure he won one, but he's also lost one...to Joe Biden. He lost the White House, senate and the house in one election cycle. The polls also said the Dems would get moderate returns in the 2018 midterms, that was wrong. Pay attention to the vote and not the polling. 2022 polling said a massive red wave was coming in, pay attention to the vote. The GOP had an embarrassing return, it was a joke. I don't care what the polling says, the GOP aren't winning elections on their own and adding Trump to the ballot makes it worse.

[Dan T.]

3 hours ago, PeterMP said:

Trump got over 100K more votes in VA than Biden in a state that Biden must win in Nov to win the Presidential election.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I would think Trump only having 100k more votes than Biden in VA would be concerning for Trump. I read (admittedly not positive of the source) that Fairfax County only had a 10% turnout and that Hailey won the Republican primary vote.

 

Slightly over 1M people voted in the primary. 4.375M voted in the 2020 election. 2.4M voted for Biden. 346k voted in the Democratic primary.

 

At the polling stations in Virginia you were asked if you want to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary. You could choose which, regardless of your party affiliation.

 

This is anecdotal, but there was a lot of talk about Democrats and Independents, knowing that Biden was a shoo-in, choosing to vote for Haley as a way to repudiate Trump.  Haley garnered 240,839 votes, 34.8% of GOP votes.  I'm betting a good chunk of those were non-GPO voting anti-Trump.

[Fergasun]

And re: Muslim vote against Biden... 

 

This is absolutely how you destroy any political capital you have in your governing coalition.  

[Spaceman Spiff]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/michelle-obama-former-first-lady-not-running-president-2024-rcna141767

 

Just so you guys are fully aware, I also won't be running for president.

[88Comrade2000]

 

[88Comrade2000]

4 hours ago, PeterMP said:

Trump got over 100K more votes in VA than Biden in a state that Biden must win in Nov to win the Presidential election.

 

In MI, even if you throw in the ~100K Democrat uncommitted vote Trump still out gained Biden.

 

(It is hard to pull much meaning out of these for the GE because the turnout will be much higher for the GE, but anybody looking at those numbers and thinking Trump is weak or that the general polls are wrong are deluding themselves IMO.  I'll note that the polls in MI pretty much nailed the out come of he MI primary.  If I'm working for the Trump campaign, I'm feeling pretty good.)

 

The Democrats have no race, so don’t take much at those numbers. Dems voting now is more for down ballot races than president.

 

The so called republican race ended last night.

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

Since I’m independent, I’ve never voted in a primary.  The 3 states I voted in didn’t allow independent in primaries. West Virginia:88, Ohio: 00,04,08 and Florida: 12,16,20.

 

I voted in New York in 92, but was only there for general election.

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, PeterMP said:

 

"Tonight, pretty much running as an incumbent president and against only one other person still in the race, he's pulling 65 percent of the vote in VA. "

 

You can't have it both ways.  Either Trump is essentially equivalent to Biden (essentially an incumbent) in which case comparing vote totals between the two is reasonable.  Or he's not, in which case comparing him to 2016 Trump is reasonable.

 

And either way, he's doing really well.  If he's essentially Biden, that's good for Trump because it appears he's out competing Biden now.  If he's not comparable to Biden (and not essentially an incumbent), then that's still good for Trump because he's still easily out preforming 2016 Trump and he won the GE that year.

 

You're making two different arguments that contradict one another.

 

And again, the national polls look very good for Trump.  And the pollsters got the MI primary pretty much right.

 

To me, it seems you are ignoring all of the "good" news for Trump by making contradictory arguments and ignoring the data that is good for Trump w/o any reason really other than you don't like it.  The loser talk is also just nonsense.  His name is on the ballot in all of these primaries, and he's winning easily.  He's won as many Presidential elections as Biden on fewer tries.  And if he had wanted to be a Senator or something, he could have absolutely moved to some red state 2 years agon and won.

 

Taking anything from a primary is hard as I said initially.  I'd not overly look at these results with any significance and only made my comment because there was the claim that the primary results are bad for Trump and are evidence that the general polls are wrong.

 

I'd really not be comfortable drawing any conclusion from these results, but if anything if I'm running the Trump campaign, I'm pretty happy.  You can say Trump is running as an incumbent in which case the results look pretty good (he's out doing Biden in states Biden has to win), or he's not an incumbent (he's easily out performing 2016 Trump in the primary and that was good enough to win the GE).  Either way, it is a good look.

Since this only happened once in 1892, not much to go on.

 

Joe Biden is the incumbent but Trump  is a recent former president, who lost reelection and is now running to get a second term again.

 

You have the 2 recent presidents running for a second term.

[Larry]

2 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Big open question now is what % of Haley voters are actually Never Trumpers.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if 90% of them were Democrats.  

[The Evil Genius]

Unless there was a logical downballot reason to vote in your state, the # should always be deflated for total votes for the incumbent President in each state during the primaries. Not sure why that's even up for discussion. 

 

At least the GOP #s will likely deflate now that Diaper Donny has officially eliminated everyone else.

 

It's going to be fun to see how they try to keep Trump on script moving forward. The dementia is progressing quite rapidly.

Edited March 6 by The Evil Genius

[88Comrade2000]

Muslim vote more on geopolitical stuff like Israel-Palestine.

 

I know the Muslim community in my hometown in 2000 were debating whether to vote for Bush or Gore.

 

They felt Gore was too pro Israel, ironic. So, I think many of them voted Bush; just over that.

 

Not really rational view but it does drive Muslims.

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

I would think Trump only having 100k more votes than Biden in VA would be concerning for Trump. I read (admittedly not positive of the source) that Fairfax County only had a 10% turnout and that Hailey won the Republican primary vote.

 

Slightly over 1M people voted in the primary. 4.375M voted in the 2020 election. 2.4M voted for Biden. 346k voted in the Democratic primary.

 

Trump lost Farifax county in the 2016 primary and GE.  Why should he be worried about losing Fairfax county?  Especially in an election where Democrats can come vote against him.

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, Simmsy said:

If a third of the party said they wouldn't vote for him, I would be worried.

Much of your post is inaccurate.  I'm going to deal with this part specifically.

 

A 1/3 of the party hasn't said they wouldn't vote for him.  In some states, 1/3 of the people that are voting in the Republican primary have voted against him.  Those states have mostly been open primaries where Democrats can vote in a Republican primary.  Also, in any primary there are people that vote against a candidate that then vote for that candidate in the GE.  Having 1/3 of the voters in a primary like VA vote for the other candidate doesn't mean that a 1/3 of the party won't vote for him in the GE.  It means that 1/3 of the people that voted in the Republican primary, which could include Democrats, didn't vote for him.  And of those who knows how many will vote for him in a GE when it is just him and Biden.

 

Halley winning a 1/3 of the vote in VA isn't an indication that 1/3 of the GOP voters won't vote for Trump in a GE any more than the fact that he didn't win 50% of the vote the primary in VA in 2016 was an indication that 50% of the GOP in VA wasn't going to vote for him in the GE.

 

Do you understand that?

Edited March 6 by PeterMP

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

The Democrats have no race, so don’t take much at those numbers. Dems voting now is more for down ballot races than president.

 

The so called republican race ended last night.

 

 

 

But the GOP hasn't had much a race and so that GOP voting is also down isn't surprising.  The GOP race isn't and has never been about President.  That GOP turnout is down some and so especially in states that are open primaries Dems coming in and voting can distort the % of votes.

 

In 2016, over a 1 million people voted in the VA GOP primary.  This year, it was just over 600K.  The GOP race isn't a true race for President and voter turnout is corresponding down.

Edited March 6 by PeterMP

[TD_washingtonredskins]

5 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

Much of your post is inaccurate.  I'm going to deal with this part specifically.

 

A 1/3 of the party hasn't said they wouldn't vote for him.  In some states, 1/3 of the people that are voting in the Republican primary have voted against him.  Those states have mostly been open primaries where Democrats can show vote in a Republican primary.  Also, in any primary there are people that vote against a candidate that then vote for that candidate.  Having 1/3 of the voters in a primary like VA vote for the other candidate doesn't mean that a 1/3 of the party wouldn't vote for him.  It means that 1/3 of the people that voted in the Republican primary, which could include Democrats, didn't vote for him.  And of those who knows how many will vote for him in a GE when it is just him and Biden.

 

Halley winning a 1/3 of the vote in VA isn't an indication that 1/3 of the GOP voters won't vote for Trump in a GE any more than the fact that he didn't 50% of the vote in VA in 2016 was an indication that 50% of the GOP in VA wasn't going to vote for him in the GE.

 

Do you understand that?

 

Exactly. It's very similar to assuming that the 18-19% of Minnesota voters who chose "Uncommitted" are all not going to vote for Biden in November. Sure, a subset might stay home, a smaller subset might actually vote for Trump. But, most of those people will vote for Biden. 

 

That is the same on the Republican side (with different ratios). Some of those Haley voters will just not vote, some will vote for Biden, some might even vote for RFK or something...but many will vote for the Republican candidate. 

[PeterMP]

33 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

At least the GOP #s will likely deflate now that Diaper Donny has officially eliminated everyone else.

 

They've been deflated.  This year's turnouts aren't anywhere close to 2016s on the Republican side.

[Ball Security]

16 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Trump lost Farifax county in the 2016 primary and GE.  Why should he be worried about losing Fairfax county?  Especially in an election where Democrats can come vote against him.

Haley winning in FFX is illustrative of how blue the county is. Trump had 130k more votes than Biden statewide. What’s going to happen to Trump’s chances when the extra 450k FFX voters come out for the general? Biden won 70% of the FFX vote in 2020.