2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

OT and Center in the first 3 rounds would be great. Even rounds 1 and 2. Grab a CB in the 3rd. Sign a LB and a Guard in FA. Go from there. 

[mhd24]

12 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I was thinking trade down feels likely too, because I think Skoronski and PJJr will be picked ahead of our choice.  I think they will want to move down and get into the linebacker/OG range.

 

I think there are some potential curveball scenarios out there, that would match up with their past tendencies.

 

1 - I think they could pick Bresee at 16 if his health checks out.  That feels like a very Star Lotuleilei-esque pick, and I think they could do it to hedge against being unable to get a deal done with DaRon.  I also think any edge faller of the caliber of Myles Murphy or Tyree Wilson has to be in play.

 

2 - I can't stop thinking about how many first round LBers Hurney and Rivera have drafted.  I think there is a chance that Trenton Simpson is a surprise choice.

 

3 - I also think Bijan is going to be really tempting for them.  He's that board meltdown style pick that ends up being the top selling Commanders jersey for the next five years.  On a team lacking elite star power and an identity-defining player on offense, we can't be turning our noses up at someone being widely rated as a top five talent in the class.  I have really mixed feelings on picking him, personally, but I'm starting to back off my take against picking him.  I can't be against BPA picks.

 

I want to call my shot and say that I think Olu Oluwatimi is going to be one of the OLs we draft if he makes it into a third-fourth round range.  It just feels like a perfect fit.

 

Excellent analysis as usual!

 

I'd argue that Jones might also tempt them if he slips to 16.  However, I'm doubting he falls there.  The only players I could see tempting teams to trade up are Bijon or one of the top 3 CBs (whom we could draft instead).

[KDawg]

Man, we are on a lot of different pages with the draft this year. Which makes it interesting.

 

I'm not at all on the Steve Avila train as of now. Dude is a bulldozer but he has very little redirect skills and doesn't play with his head on a swivel when I've watched. 

 

I have no interest in Bresee. Good player, plays too high, but relentless motor. Hard worker. But not a guy we'd need/get the most value for. Wouldn't be MAD at having him by any means. A good player is a good player. Just not a guy I want. 

 

Bijan is a luxury pick that I don't see us making...

 

Glad to see Ivan Pace making some noise at the Senior Bowl. Not shocking to me. He'd be my LB target but he's going to move up boards with a good Senior Bowl so he'd need to be targeted earlier than later...

 

 

[skinsfan66]

10 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I was thinking trade down feels likely too, because I think Skoronski and PJJr will be picked ahead of our choice.  I think they will want to move down and get into the linebacker/OG range.

 

I think there are some potential curveball scenarios out there, that would match up with their past tendencies.

 

1 - I think they could pick Bresee at 16 if his health checks out.  That feels like a very Star Lotuleilei-esque pick, and I think they could do it to hedge against being unable to get a deal done with DaRon.  I also think any edge faller of the caliber of Myles Murphy or Tyree Wilson has to be in play.

 

2 - I can't stop thinking about how many first round LBers Hurney and Rivera have drafted.  I think there is a chance that Trenton Simpson is a surprise choice.

 

3 - I also think Bijan is going to be really tempting for them.  He's that board meltdown style pick that ends up being the top selling Commanders jersey for the next five years.  On a team lacking elite star power and an identity-defining player on offense, we can't be turning our noses up at someone being widely rated as a top five talent in the class.  I have really mixed feelings on picking him, personally, but I'm starting to back off my take against picking him.  I can't be against BPA picks.

 

I want to call my shot and say that I think Olu Oluwatimi is going to be one of the OLs we draft if he makes it into a third-fourth round range.  It just feels like a perfect fit.

Trade down, just like last year, maybe 2 if possible early 2nd If OL you want is not there.  But ?

 Agree, If Bresee is there and nobody wants to trade, it opens up many possibilities.  

1. They could trade DaRon, 1st next year and 2nd. or 3rd.... this year, draft day trade?   2. Breese on rookie contract.  3. Breese is a local HS product too, Damascus MD. 4. He makes us younger could be used in 3/4 as he is more like Allen and you have the rookie this year for the middle. Just increases options. 5. would get rid of big contract problem at DT. 6. Also you would have more money to spend on FA or own players Sweat, Holcum, Curl...?

Agree with Bijan take, Same thing as Breese, possibilities.  

1. Could be impact player,   2. They could trade Gibson and maybe Pick up a 3rd this year or 2nd.... next year?   3. Another rookie contract.  Gibson would be a nice get for a needy team and he has a good contract too. 4. Solves a future problem. 5. Adds another receiver for passing game with a all around back.

My take on CB and TE at 16 is   1. I think OL or LB are more of a need and impact more for the team, I hope they would trade down first if possible.  2. I would want them to draft one of those 2 above if it came down to it and top OL is gone and no trade available. Only if BPA on board and no options would I want them to draft a CB or TE at 16.

 

[DWinzit]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Bijan is a luxury pick that I don't see us making...

 

Glad to see Ivan Pace making some noise at the Senior Bowl. Not shocking to me. He'd be my LB target but he's going to move up boards with a good Senior Bowl so he'd need to be targeted earlier than later...

 

 

Totally with you on Bijan. Frankly, I don't understand even considering him due to the significant needs added to the current ownership/coaching environment in Washington. 

 

I am a bit bummed when I hear guys I like receive a lot of hype, Pace is not going to around late on day 3 for sure

[KDawg]

Just now, DWinzit said:

Totally with you on Bijan. Frankly, I don't understand even considering him due to the significant needs added to the current ownership/coaching environment in Washington. 

 

I am a bit bummed when I hear guys I like receive a lot of hype, Pace is not going to around late on day 3 for sure

 

I understand the BPA argument for him. But as always I think weighting BPA with need and RB comes in as a possible spot to take someone... but not as early as Round 1 Pick 16.

 

I'm not sure he makes it that far, anyways.

 

Chicago trading back a few times and getting him would be a hell of a chess move.

 

 

[Warhead36]

Just say no to 1st round RBs. And I'm fine with Gibson/Robinson as a duo.

[Koolblue13]

I'd be happy with Pace in the 3rd. We definitely need a pass rushing LBer. Seeing what Reddick is doing for the Eagles and Parsons occasionally for the Cowboys.

[Skinsinparadise]

Logan Paulsen, who I think I like even more than I liked Cooley when it comes to film review -- mainly because its easy to see he dives deep and watches a lot and is very detail oriented.  On his last podcast.   He's at the Senior Bowl reporting what he's seen.  Some of his points.

 

A.  He likes the tackle group.  Just a point on that on my own.  There arguably isn't that top tier of studs that you typically get so the class is weak on the front.  But so many B level talent with upside.   To use an old school analogy, not much as to there being Chris Samuels.  But more Jon Jansen types than typically.  And am far from alone on that take.

 

B.  The tackles have looked good at the Senior Bowl.

 

C. He loves what he saw about my guy, Darnell Wright, he said he'd take him at 16 but then at another point said could be late first.

 

D.  Likes what he saw from Dawand Jones, especially in pass protection, not sure about his athleticism in the run game if they go for an outside zone scheme.

 

E.  Jaeyln Duncan looks uber athletic, doesn't look as good as Wright or Jones.  Sees him good in a zone oriented scheme because of his athleticism.  Worries about his inconsistent play this past season and he talked to a Commanders scout who told him the exact same thing which is they want to sit down and talk to Duncan to explore the reasons for his inconsistency. 

 

F. Sat with Zampese on the plane headed to the Senior Bowl.  Zampese told him personality means a lot and its one of the key variables to see and gather when they meet with these guys.  Suggested that he's been burned by ignoring that as a factor in the past so its a big deal.

 

G.  Michael-Schmitz has looked good, Oluwatimi has looked good too but not as good as Schmitz.  He sees Schmitz as the better anchor in pass protection and Oluwatimi is more twitchy and better in zone. 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

43 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'd be happy with Pace in the 3rd. We definitely need a pass rushing LBer. Seeing what Reddick is doing for the Eagles and Parsons occasionally for the Cowboys.

 

I am partial to Pace in part because he's the first LB I really studied hard this year and loved what i saw. 

 

But as I said when I dived into him on this thread months back, I am wondering at the same time why the the bigger names in the draft media aren't into him so i'll keep my eyes open for that, maybe there is something I am missing., you mentioned Reddick, the draft media loved that dude.  Not that I need validation from the draft media but its odd he's not even in the top 15 on some LB lists.   

Edited February 2, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am partial to Pace in part because he's the first LB I really studied hard this year and loved what i saw. 

 

But as I said when I dived into him on this thread months back, I am wondering at the same time why the the bigger names in the draft media aren't into him so i'll keep my eyes open for that, maybe there is something I am missing., you mentioned Reddick, the draft media loved that dude.  Not that I need validation from the draft media but its odd he's not even in the top 15 on some LB lists.   

I watched a bit of Herbig and think he could be a good get in the 4rth. Small though.

 

When it comes to LBers, production matters to me. Probably why I wasn't high on Davis (who I do really like now). 

 

Small twitchy LBers who can cover a little, but rush the passer are the future IMO. Too fast and small for the larger Onlineman to slow down.

[DWinzit]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I watched a bit of Herbig and think he could be a good get in the 4rth. Small though.

 

When it comes to LBers, production matters to me. Probably why I wasn't high on Davis (who I do really like now). 

 

Small twitchy LBers who can cover a little, but rush the passer are the future IMO. Too fast and small for the larger Onlineman to slow down.

Yes plus Pace has the other great intangible for LB's, football smart and instinct!

[Going Commando]

42 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am partial to Pace in part because he's the first LB I really studied hard this year and loved what i saw. 

 

But as I said when I dived into him on this thread months back, I am wondering at the same time why the the bigger names in the draft media aren't into him so i'll keep my eyes open for that, maybe there is something I am missing., you mentioned Reddick, the draft media loved that dude.  Not that I need validation from the draft media but its odd he's not even in the top 15 on some LB lists.   

 

I'm telling you guys, it boils down to him being small.  At 5'10 he's a little smaller than I expected, and has a short wingspan too so he's not compensating for being short with length.  He's going to be in like the 1 percentile for height and wingspan at the position.  It's an uphill climb for someone that size to be drafted as a linebacker.  Especially a linebacker whose particular skill requires you to use him as a pressure player.

 

His film and drill work look fantastic, but his draft stock is now going to hinge on how fast he runs the 40.  If he runs in the 4.6s, then he should be OK.  If he runs 4.8, he's probably not getting drafted.

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I'm telling you guys, it boils down to him being small.  At 5'10 he's a little smaller than I expected, and has a short wingspan too so he's not compensating for being short with length.  He's going to be in like the 1 percentile for height and wingspan at the position.  It's an uphill climb for someone that size to be drafted as a linebacker.  Especially a linebacker whose particular skill requires you to use him as a pressure player.

 

His film and drill work look fantastic, but his draft stock is now going to hinge on how fast he runs the 40.  If he runs in the 4.6s, then he should be OK.  If he runs 4.8, he's probably not getting drafted.

5-10 is also smaller than I thought based on info we had. That will affect him. But London Fletcher was also 5-10. Of course, he ran a sub 4.4 40 so it’s not apples to apples. 
 

But I’m not as into measurements as much as you and Consigliere are, either. 
 

But I don’t outright dismiss them, either. Being 5-10 will hurt him.

[Going Commando]

Julius Brents's measurements:

Height: 6030

Weight: 202

Arm: 33 3/4"

Hand: 9 1/2"

Wingspan: 82 7/8"

 

This guy is definitely going to be on our radar.  That wingspan measurement is 5 inches longer than the next best at corner in the senior bowl.  It's 2 inches longer than any of the tight ends or receivers too.  He's in OL territory with that number.  He's got a St-Juste build and this is the kind of dude we like for outside corner.

 

Looking at Chris Smith's measurements, I think he's going to drop on draft day into mega-value territory because he's pretty small for a safety.  He's the smallest safety at the SB by a noticeable margin.  I could see him being a surprise day three pick who ends up being a good starter.

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

5-10 is also smaller than I thought based on info we had. That will affect him. But London Fletcher was also 5-10. Of course, he ran a sub 4.4 40 so it’s not apples to apples. 
 

But I’m not as into measurements as much as you and Consigliere are, either. 
 

But I don’t outright dismiss them, either. Being 5-10 will hurt him.

 

London went undrafted, but there is much more of a path for short linebackers to be drafted on day 1/day 2 now than in the late 90's.  Devin Bush and Nick Bolton were a little taller than Pace, but close enough in height, and they were drafted early.  But the key for each was Bolton ran a 4.6 and Bush ran a blazing fast 4.4.  They also were more traditional linebackers that weren't really used as rushers as much as Pace, which is going to make Pace's size hurt him a little more than theirs did.

 

I like Pace.  I definitely like his film more than Devin Bush's, who I didn't really like at all.  I thought he was wildly overrated and didn't have anywhere near the same level of instincts or football IQ that Pace has.  I actually want to draft Pace, but not before we have to.  Determining where he his draft range ends up will be a pretty straightforward calculation after he runs the drills.  If he runs 4.6, then he could go as high as third or fourth round.  If he runs 4.8, then he's probably going to go 7th round or UDFA.  I think we could make sure we get him by using a late sixth on him.

[Chump Bailey]

Quote

Speaking of TCU, Steve Avila got reps at both guard and center, and was impressive in both. His power reflects his size, but his mobility is surprising at first glance. He’s making money this week.

 

https://nflmocks.com/2023/02/01/senior-bowl-cody-mauch-john-michael-schmitz-headline-day-two/

 

Cody Mauch is getting looks at OC, then I'd prefer him but Big Steve is getting some attention too. I want some help for Sam. We all know how pressure up the middle poses a huge problem for QB's.

[Going Commando]

What about this for a need-focused mock that's assuming that Chris Smith and Ivan Pace drop because they don't run super fast 40s, and Kancey drops because he measures small:

 

16 - Darnell Wright

47 - Calijah Kancey

Rd 3 comp - Julius Brents

115 - Olu Oluwatimi

147 -  Sam LaPorta

179 - Christopher Smith

Rd 6 comp - Ivan Pace

211 - Jake Haener

[Chump Bailey]

9 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

What about this for a need-focused mock that's assuming that Chris Smith and Ivan Pace drop because they don't run super fast 40s, and Kancey drops because he measures small:

 

16 - Darnell Wright

47 - Calijah Kancey

Rd 3 comp - Julius Brents

115 - Olu Oluwatimi

147 -  Sam LaPorta

179 - Christopher Smith

Rd 6 comp - Ivan Pace

211 - Jake Haener

 

I'd love it but Max Duggan is my QB

[KDawg]

17 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

What about this for a need-focused mock that's assuming that Chris Smith and Ivan Pace drop because they don't run super fast 40s, and Kancey drops because he measures small:

 

16 - Darnell Wright

47 - Calijah Kancey

Rd 3 comp - Julius Brents

115 - Olu Oluwatimi

147 -  Sam LaPorta

179 - Christopher Smith

Rd 6 comp - Ivan Pace

211 - Jake Haener

I don’t hate it. I like Hendon Hooker if he falls to the fifth. But not against this draft. 

[Going Commando]

Just now, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'd love it but Max Duggan is my QB

 

What are you thinking for his draft range?  I thought about Duggan, but the reason I went with Haener is because I saw some rankings that had him around the early 7th and Duggan was ranked in a spot that probably ends up in the sixth once the comp picks come out.  I wanted to get Smith and Pace with the sixth rounders.

 

I do want to take a QB flier this year, and I liked Hooker, Duggan, and Haener as candidates for that choice.  But I didn't see a way to work Hooker in to an ideal class without a first round trade down that picks us up an extra 3rd/4th.   Ultimately, I think he gets picked in that range.

[Chump Bailey]

2 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

What are you thinking for his draft range?  I thought about Duggan, but the reason I went with Haener is because I saw some rankings that had him around the early 7th and Duggan was ranked in a spot that probably ends up in the sixth once the comp picks come out.  I wanted to get Smith and Pace with the sixth rounders.

 

I do want to take a QB flier this year, and I liked Hooker, Duggan, and Haener as candidates for that choice.  But I didn't see a way to work Hooker in to an ideal class without a first round trade down that picks us up an extra 3rd/4th.   Ultimately, I think he gets picked in that range.

 

I doubt if Max lasts after the 4th round unless he craps the bed at the Senior Bowl and interview process. I think he's underrated to a good extent.

[Going Commando]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don’t hate it. I like Hendon Hooker if he falls to the fifth. But not against this draft. 

 

I really like Hooker at 5th round value.  Not sure how I feel about him in the third or fourth, but fifth is too good to pass up.  His draft stock feels really murky to me.  I can't think of a precedent where a midround guy was ascending into a first round range in his final season until he tore his ACL.  My gut says someone is going to fall in love with him in interviews and pick him at the end of the third or in the fourth, but QB draft value is super unpredictable and irrational once you get out of the first round.  Honestly, anywhere from second round to fifth round wouldn't shock me for him.

 

I think our best outcome involves trading down in the first to get another third, but still coming away with a rookie starting OT like Darnell Wright.  That'd give us so much more flexibility.

[Chump Bailey]

One other note @Going Commando I don't think Chris Smith is going to last that long. Chris Smith the Georgia S prospect? That Chris Smith?

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

I'm telling you guys, it boils down to him being small.  At 5'10 he's a little smaller than I expected, and has a short wingspan too so he's not compensating for being short with length.  He's going to be in like the 1 percentile for height and wingspan at the position.  It's an uphill climb for someone that size to be drafted as a linebacker.  Especially a linebacker whose particular skill requires you to use him as a pressure player.

 

His film and drill work look fantastic, but his draft stock is now going to hinge on how fast he runs the 40.  If he runs in the 4.6s, then he should be OK.  If he runs 4.8, he's probably not getting drafted.

 

His speed-agility drills at the combine should make or break him I presume.

 

Jon Ledyard took a lot of grief on twitter for making the case against Ryan Anderson.  He goes a dude with short arms, and poor agility and poor speed without freakish strength is destined to be "meh" in the NFL and he was right.

 

 

18 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

One other note @Going Commando I don't think Chris Smith is going to last that long. Chris Smith the Georgia S prospect? That Chris Smith?

 

He's one of my fav players in the the 4th round range if he lasts that long.  I've talked about him a bunch lately.  IMO a poor man's Brian Branch. Good player.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Skinsinparadise