2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

McGinn in his QB rankings.

 

At this spot, the scouts nailed it since they had the exact same ranking of my QBs after the top 5. 

 

That is, Haener then Tune than Thompson-Robinson.  My only difference with them is I like Jaren Hall more than they do albeit I do indeed see Hall as a backup but IMO he could be a decent back up IMO.

 

I don't like these cognitive and personality assessment tests that the NFL is always trying to lean on as some sort of silver bullet for measuring personality/intelligence.  The testing function/results are always wildly misinterpreted, and the tests themselves are always some kind of pseudoscience given this veneer of academic legitimacy by someone tangentially related to psychology who has a business interest in selling this crap to major employers.  I just do not believe that any credible academic or researched in the field would think that you can figure out a guy's cognitive ability or personality from a 45 minute test/game, or that you could derive strong, actionable information for hiring from such testing.  This relatively new S2 cognition sounds to me like just the new Wonderlic, administered with a fancy gaming laptop.

 

I read some of the takes that McGinn shares from these scouts/executives and sometimes I'm stunned by how gullible they sound.  Anyone who thinks you can derive strong correlations, much less hard and fast rules like "nobody who scored low on the S2 will ever be a good QB," from a test with less than seven years of administration and an absolutely tiny sample pool of data is a fool.  It's such a leap.  These guys are so desperate to find some kind of magic code to picking QBs that they enthusiastically drink down snake oil.

 

I don't really have a dog in this fight, because I do like Bryce Young the best, I like Levis, and I haven't been super high on Stroud outside of a handful of his performances, like in the Georgia game.  I just don't like these personality/cognition tests and don't think they have any business (much less scientific) value at all.

 

That said, the market for these players will still react to the information the S2 provides because lots of executives seem to believe in its value.  What does this do for CJ Stroud's draft stock?  Does it put him in play for us at 16?  We've never really talked about him because we assumed there was no way he'd be there.  AFAIK, our team hasn't even talked to him.  Do we like him?

[DWinzit]

I was reviewing the lists I could find of all the players the team has met with. It makes me happy to they not only met with many day one and two players that fit needs/wants, but they also spent time with many day 3 players. I feel they have done some due diligence in many areas in planning perhaps for the trade downs and having many day 3 selections. 

 

I wrote the above before @Going Commandos post. I have stated before that I don't want a QB in the first round. I would stand by that. Hope for trade downs and fill the roster with players you are comfortable with like and fit needs and your plan

EDIT it is a shame this stuff comes out, and right before the draft. Strouds stock may very well dump

Edited April 21, 2023 by DWinzit

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I don't like these cognitive and personality assessment tests that the NFL is always trying to lean on as some sort of silver bullet for measuring personality/intelligence.  The testing function/results are always wildly misinterpreted, and the tests themselves are always some kind of pseudoscience given this veneer of academic legitimacy by someone tangentially related to psychology who has a business interest in selling this crap to major employers.  I just do not believe that any credible academic or researched in the field would think that you can figure out a guy's cognitive ability or personality from a 45 minute test/game, or that you could derive strong, actionable information for hiring from such testing.  This relatively new S2 cognition sounds to me like just the new Wonderlic, administered with a fancy gaming laptop.

 

I read some of the takes that McGinn shares from these scouts/executives and sometimes I'm stunned by how gullible they sound.  Anyone who thinks you can derive strong correlations, much less hard and fast rules like "nobody who scored low on the S2 will ever be a good QB," from a test with less than seven years of administration and an absolutely tiny sample pool of data is a fool.  It's such a leap.  These guys are so desperate to find some kind of magic code to picking QBs that they enthusiastically drink down snake oil.

 

I don't really have a dog in this fight, because I do like Bryce Young the best, I like Levis, and I haven't been super high on Stroud outside of a handful of his performances, like in the Georgia game.  I just don't like these personality/cognition tests and don't think they have any business (much less scientific) value at all.

 

That said, the market for these players will still react to the information the S2 provides because lots of executives seem to believe in its value.  What does this do for CJ Stroud's draft stock?  Does it put him in play for us at 16?  We've never really talked about him because we assumed there was no way he'd be there.  AFAIK, our team hasn't even talked to him.  Do we like him?

 

So far it seems to be a pretty good measurement. Will it have outliers? Yup. They always do. But I wouldn't discount it as snake oil. 

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

So far it seems to be a pretty good measurement. Will it have outliers? Yup. They always do. But I wouldn't discount it as snake oil. 

Agreed. Seems a relatively good indicator at this stage. 

12 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 I just don't like these personality/cognition tests and don't think they have any business (much less scientific) value at all.

You may well be true over time, but getting 18% is a pretty bad look isn’t it ?

 

The S2 website showcases the results of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who was the No. 1 pick in 2020. His total score of 97% was broken down into four sections: 94% on visual learning, 97% in instinctive learning, 97% in impulse control and 93% in improvisation.

[RWJ]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I just rewatched a Drew Sanders game to refresh myself on him.   I need to do that on a bunch of players I watched months ago like him.

 

He has a really good feel for how to pass rush from the LB spot.  He IMO at his best when hovering close to the line of scrimage and rushing via delayed blitzes in particular. He can be a handful in general -- rip move, bull rushing, etc, and has good slippery hands with a motor.

 

But I am also not blown away.   I think the best way to use him is close to the box and as a weapon as a blitzer.  As a pure LB in coverage and against the run, I give them that he's a ball of energy and his recognition skills seem fine -- but overall, he's sort of hit and miss for me when he plays traditional LB. 

 

He has a wirey frame and isn't that hot at shedding tackles -- so he's more of an open field keep him clean type of LB but I noticed he's sort of a sloppy tackler and doesn't finish his tackles well.  After watching him I looked at his numbers and saw he has almost a 20% miss tackle rate -- which is the 2nd highest miss tackle number in this group and only a hair away from being the top miss tackle player in this group.  In coverage he looked ok but not as fluid as some other LBs I've watched.

 

I like Nolan Smith easily over Drew Sanders.  Sanders is about the same weight yet ran a 4.66.  He's a good athlete but doesn't bring that Reddick type of speed coming from the edge.  And I have more doubts that Sanders pass rushing chops translate to the NFL versus Nolan's style.

 

I think Sanders has a shot of being a good player.  But he's not a pound the table player for me.  But if they took him at 47, he's unlikely would be one of my top desires at that spot but I'd be cool with it, too.

 

 

I watched the interview, it was clunky tweet description of it.  They asked about trading up or trading down.  He said he prefers trading down typically and if they traded up theoritically they would not want to give up much.

Riley Moss from Iowa is a LB I like in the late 3rd round/early 4th round.  

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

Riley Moss from Iowa is a LB I like in the late 3rd round/early 4th round.  

Riley Moss is a corner. 

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Riley Moss is a corner. 

Sorry KDawg. Mind was somewhere else.  Yes, I meant CB and at the range I posted in the draft.  Should have had that V-8 this morning.  

[justice98]

With this Shake Toney news, definitely puts DE in play I'm the draft.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, justice98 said:

With this Shake Toney news, definitely puts DE in play I'm the draft.

 

I don't know if it changes the plans much. I think we were looking to add a top-tier DE in the mid rounds anyway. This just might cement that, or at the very least increase the odds that we add a late-round DE purely for back-end roster depth. 

[Rex Tomb]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I got draft man crushes (too many ) on so many TEs and DEs in this draft -- that if they take someone at that spot anywhere from round 1 through round 4, the odds are I'll be very happy. 

 

As for TEs, Kincaid is definitely one of my many TE draft crushes.   For a TE especially you got to be able to make catches in traffic and having a TE who has glue for hands is an asset.  He gets open so seamlessly in the flat, Jordan Reed style, that IMO he's a perfect sort of safety outlet for a QB.

I was going to say that in a couple of those clips that I've watched, it's like the guy has fly paper on his palms the way he snags those hard throws right out of the air.

[Est.1974]

6 minutes ago, justice98 said:

With this Shake Toney news, definitely puts DE in play I'm the draft.

I mean he was fairly undersized 6-3 230 ish. We’ve been looking at those type of LB/Edge type prospects. Clearly knew it was coming.

On 4/19/2023 at 6:58 PM, Est.1974 said:

When I was looking at him for the ES mock draft, a comparison player noted was Shaka Toney. 6-3, 230 and we drafted in the 7th.

Damn I mention him and next thing he’s gone. My guy Mohamoud Diabate on day three is just the ideal replacement... 

[Rex Tomb]

13 minutes ago, justice98 said:

With this Shake Toney news, definitely puts DE in play I'm the draft.

What's the news? I googled it but didn't find anything concrete.

[KDawg]

Just now, Rex Tomb said:

What's the news? I googled it but didn't find anything concrete.

Indefinite suspension for gambling.

[tmandoug1]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Indefinite suspension for gambling.

Shaka didnt just get suspended he  just got expelled.....at least from the Commanders.

[Koolblue13]

I'm glad that we're not in the QB frenzy this year. I'm not high on any of them.

 

I'm never drafting a QB from Ohio. That's some fools gold. Great offensive system and supporting cast. Bad QBs.

 

I do like some of the day 3 QBs and I hope we get one. Haener or Tune I guess.

 

Nobody cares about Shaka Toney. He wasn't making the roster any way.

[Skinsinparadise]

40 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Riley Moss from Iowa is a LB I like in the late 3rd round/early 4th round.  

 

Yeah I've talked about him on and off here.  i like him.  High floor player.  Stick in coverage. For some reason he doesn't get much credit for his athleticism even though he ran a 4.45.  the draft media is all over the map on him, have seen him in the late 2nd in some mocks, and in the 6th round in some others.

 

Switching to safety.  A more obscure player from the same school, Kaevon Merriweather, safety.  He gets almost no attention but very solid, all around the board -- pass-run, but not spectacular at any one thing -- always seems to be around the ball.  Just average athlete -- average ball skills so I think he likely drops to the 7th round range but if they don't take a safety earlier he's on my radar. 

 

The other one as a late round safety, i like but more of an in the box type. Demarcco Hellams.  Both I've put up posts about months back but i need to refresh.

 

\

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Jumbo]

Fyi, if anyone one is curious about its disappearance, I deleted a post I just made about cognitive ability assessment tools and "personality" (behavioral) assessment tools, that I thought could result in an off topic extension and possible pissing contest. 

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm glad that we're not in the QB frenzy this year. I'm not high on any of them.

 

I'm never drafting a QB from Ohio. That's some fools gold. Great offensive system and supporting cast. Bad QBs.

 

I do like some of the day 3 QBs and I hope we get one. Haener or Tune I guess.

 

Nobody cares about Shaka Toney. He wasn't making the roster any way.

 

Always thought being in the middle of the QB frenzy was the most depressing position. I'm happy with our QB situation for this year, and happy we're not in the QB frenzy.

 

There are random QB years that just blow, and nothing changes that besides all the hope those teams have due to desperation.

[Skinsinparadise]

42 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I mean he was fairly undersized 6-3 230 ish. We’ve been looking at those type of LB/Edge type prospects. Clearly knew it was coming.

 

 

Yeah Toney is clearly a fringe roster player.  I don't think what happens with him changes anything.  But regardless, at least according to Keim they will take a DE or pass rushing LB.  Will see.

[Est.1974]

Prospect we’ve had in, day 3 I assume. Looks more than decent IMO.
 

 

[Koolblue13]

10 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Always thought being in the middle of the QB frenzy was the most depressing position. I'm happy with our QB situation for this year, and happy we're not in the QB frenzy.

 

There are random QB years that just blow, and nothing changes that besides all the hope those teams have due to desperation.

I love the hope and upside of our current QB room. Heck, the East is back to being one of the best divisions in football and you've got a 4rth, 2nd and now a 5th round starter. 

 

Draft another and hope he becomes the best of the bunch. I also like Brissett this past season and hoped we'd bring him in. And Howell was my boy the draft before. 

 

Been a long time since we've had this kind of real home grown optimism. 

[KDawg]

I want the best player we can get at the best value. So if we can trade back, and get more value from two players versus one, I'm in. 

 

But, if Jahmyr Gibbs is the best value we can get at 16, I want him.

 

What do I mean?

 

If I were doing this for a living I'd assign a numerical value to each draft position, each position, each player and a need value.

 

So let's say if we trade back and we get 21 and 37 and the players we get at those spots bring our value to a 70...

 

And the player we would have taken at 16 is a 65 value.

 

Then we made a good move.

 

If the total value of the two players is a 58 value vs. the 65 value, then we made a bad value.

 

Some day I will toy with actually doing this for the first round or two but for now I just have theory. 

[Est.1974]

38 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I want the best player we can get at the best value. So if we can trade back, and get more value from two players versus one, I'm in. 

 

But, if Jahmyr Gibbs is the best value we can get at 16, I want him.

 

What do I mean?

I think that’s logical, and also basic common sense to be honest. The OL talk at #16 is really reaching IMO. So is Gibbs at at #16, but you are pushing him having taken him in the mock draft, right ?

[Koolblue13]

12 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I think that’s logical, and also basic common sense to be honest. The OL talk at #16 is really reaching IMO. So is Gibbs at at #16, but you are pushing him having taken him in the mock draft, right ?

If you get the next Alvin Kamara with Gibbs, how is that not worth 16?

[philibusters]

I think is worth noting the difference between best player available and most valuable player available.   Not all positions have the same value.   Lets say you think a RB projects as a pro bowler and a Tackle projects as a decent starter (say top 40 Tackle in a league with 64 theortically starting tackles).  Who is better?  Clearly the RB.  Who is more valuable?  For that I think you have to look at the open free agent market and the answer is probably the RB, but it will be closer.   Lets say you can get a pro bowl RB in free agency for 14 million, whereas a top 40 starting T costs about 10 million a year.   So the RB is more valuable.  But lets say the Tackle was not pro bowl level but solidly  above average (say top 20 e.g. Orlando Brown).  Then even though the RB is still better, the Tackle would be more valuable as he would be worth say 16 million per season.   

 

Realistically, usually a RB won't be the most valuable prospect on the table until somewhere later in the first round because they have to be so much better than the guys available at the premium positions.