Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[LD0506]

5 minutes ago, tshile said:

Maybe long term the economic stuff will make them change and stop. But. Even then it’ll be long term with much death and destruction.

 

otherwise this won’t be over until ukraine has been defeated or the Russian structure ceases to exist (because who knows what happens if putin is replaced, this mentality is baked into who they are as people)

 

Essentially you are right- as things stand right now- with what we know about Russia and their history. These people are trapped in their history, guarding their wounds like family heirlooms that can never be healed or forgotten.

 

BUT

 

There is a generation in Russia that has seen for themselves what the modern world offers. They have also been exposed to it enough to understand that not only do we not wish for their destruction, a helluva lot of us really don't think about Russia much at all. And there's the rub, the Russian character has this incredible inferiority complex and has been clamoring for respect and attention and admiration while working so hard to render themselves irrelevant in the eyes of much of the world. 

 

IMO the real battle raging is not in Ukraine, it is in Russian homes. Societally it is still very common to have multiple generations living together and conversations are being had they we are not privy to. Think the US in the 60s/70s but there was nowhere for the hippies to move out to so they stayed home and the arguments went on. 

 

In many ways this is it, this is the boss level battle of People VS History, if Russia succeeds here we slide back down into the kind of neverending warfare we saw in the Middle Ages. If Russia is stressed to the point where it cracks, where the Russian people rise up, knowing the rest of the world knows and supports them, if Russia comes out the other side of the singularity with a free, Russian-style democracy that can willingly coexist with the rest of the world and the rest of the world steps up and responds positively, everything changes. Everything. We don't need a Russian Revolution, we need a Russian Evolution, and we need it as much as they do. 

 

Is this possible? Yes. Is it likely? Not yet but those odds have been creeping up. The value in this makes the cost worthwhile. 

[RansomthePasserby]

13 minutes ago, tshile said:

edit: I see all the posts above mine about how their tactics won’t work. I hope they’re all right. I’m not trying to argue with it. I’d love to be wrong 

 

I wouldn’t go that far. 
 

their tactics work, more or less. Even when they don’t (chechen war 1 in the 90’s), they just stop until they feel they’ve amassed enough soldiers and go back (chechen war, only a few years later) and win. 
 

theyre barbarians. So long as that culture/military doctrine exists, they won’t give up until they win. Russias been invaded and conquered only to regain control throughout their entire history. 
 

while we are dumb tactics that couldn’t possibly work for us because we’d hold our government accountable (even if only eventually after much loss), they will not stop and the result is just carnage. Unending death and destruction. 
 

Maybe long term the economic stuff will make them change and stop. But. Even then it’ll be long term with much death and destruction.

 

otherwise this won’t be over until ukraine has been defeated or the Russian structure ceases to exist (because who knows what happens if putin is replaced, this mentality is baked into who they are as people)

It worked against the Chechens because Chechnya is a tiny country with a population of less than 2 million. Ukraine is a totally different situation. And historically, when they fought the Germans with human waves in WWII, Ukraine and the American lend-lease was on their side. Now they’re the invading army against the Ukrainians and against American lend-lease. I just don’t see how the Russians win in the long run.

 

But yes, you’re right that this was is going to be long, bloody, and destructive. 

[Wildbunny]

13 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

I just don't think that strategy is going to work well in the modern era.   Iraq tried it in 1991/2003 and got pummeled.  Modern artillery and airpower will turn that human wave into ground beef quite quickly.   It will also ensure whats left of Russia's economy is destroyed as they will not have a labor force. 

 

12 hours ago, RansomthePasserby said:

Human waves worked back in the USSR days when Russia’s population was booming compared to the rest of the world and reinforced by other members of the USSR like Ukraine. These days, they don’t have the rest of the USSR to fill the ranks and their population is declining. They have committed close to their entire active duty army to Ukraine, and the losses they have sustained so far are close to crippling their current military (hence why they pulled out of the Kyiv region). Their fighting force is not the giant mass of troops that it once was, and losing 1 to 2M men would completely destroy the entire reserve they haven’t called up yet, and would be devastating to their country in the long term. 

I know all of this, but that's not really how Russia is doing war.

As @tshile said, they're mostly barbarians causing chaos and destructions wherever they go. They don't give a damn about civilians or their own casualties. And they'll never stop until they get a win. Russia losing war is not an option for them. Mind you, the Chechen that are on Russia's side are also there to make sure the Russians soldiers are fighting Ukraine, not fleeing from the enemy. Those that don't fight are often executed for example.

 

They're still hanging on Stalin's thought.

[RansomthePasserby]

3 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

 

 And they'll never stop until they get a win. Russia losing war is not an option for them.

It appears Ukraine won’t stop until they get a win either. So now, like two cage fighters, they will both fight until their war machines can no longer function. Russia has genocide and destruction on their side, but my money is on the Ukrainians who are fighting for their very existence using the resources of the entire west. 

[tshile]

Like for example - one of their main defenses strategies against the nazi invasion was to burn everything down before the invading force got there. 
 

so the battle over an area became nazis fighting for and defending an area that had nothing resource wise for them. No food, no reasonably good shelter, etc. 

 

salt the earth is built into their doctrine whether on the offensive or defensive. We see it with reducing Ukrainian cities to rubble and we see it with them sowing farmland with land mines on their way out. 
 

not that any of that is to argue with anything any of you are saying. Just adding it to the discussion. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by tshile

[Wildbunny]

15 minutes ago, tshile said:

salt the earth is built into their doctrine whether on the offensive or defensive. We see it with reducing Ukrainian cities to rubble and we see it with them sowing farmland with land mines on their way out. 

Yeah, and that's a point I really don't get. Even if they're succesful they won't have the necessary ressources to rebuild those cities. So they're gonna be rulers of rubbles. Which doesn't make much sense either.

[visionary]

 

[gbear]

Wow, 22 years old and already a former marine.  Don't people usually serve in our military longer?  I feel bad for his wife and daughter. 

[Peregrine]

1 hour ago, Wildbunny said:

So they're gonna be rulers of rubbles.

Rulers of rubbles defines Russia very well, and also goes a long way to explain their currency...

[CousinsCowgirl84]

18 minutes ago, gbear said:

Wow, 22 years old and already a former marine.  Don't people usually serve in our military longer?  I feel bad for his wife and daughter. 

Thought the same thing. I think he served his 4 years and was going to try and stay home for his child but I guess his since his of duty was too strong.

[88Comrade2000]

14 hours ago, China said:

Rand Paul is a traitor on Russia's payroll.

 

Rand Paul argues US should not have backed Ukraine's NATO aspirations, citing Russia's stated reasoning behind invasion

 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken forcefully pushed back Tuesday when Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky pointed out that Ukraine and Georgia were once part of the Soviet Union as Paul appeared to raise Moscow's alleged rationale about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

 

"I firmly disagree with that proposition," Blinken said during a congressional hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in responding to Paul's assertion that "you could argue" that the countries Russia has attacked were part of the Soviet Union. Paul seemed to indicate Russia's anger about Ukraine possibly joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization -- especially given it used to be in the Soviet Union -- could have triggered the invasion.

The back and forth was prompted by Paul questioning why the US had been "agitating" for Ukraine to join NATO last fall, which was something Russia ardently opposed as a "red line."
Blinken argued that it was important to continually defend NATO's open door policy.

"It's the right of these countries to decide their future and their own destiny," Blinken goes on to say, saying their history does not give Russia the right to attack them.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

Rand says Ukraine was part of Soviet Russia; so we shouldn't care. So, if Puty goes for Alaska; we shouldn't care.After all, Russia owned Alaska once.

[Wildbunny]

20 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Rand says Ukraine was part of Soviet Russia; so we shouldn't care. So, if Puty goes for Alaska; we shouldn't care.After all, Russia owned Alaska once.

Yeah. I love that kind of thinking.

Let's go back to the France of Napoleon.

[RansomthePasserby]

43 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

Yeah. I love that kind of thinking.

Let's go back to the France of Napoleon.

Yeah, and I guess the US east coast should go back to the UK too. 

[DCSaints_fan]

5 minutes ago, RansomthePasserby said:

Yeah, and I guess the US east coast should go back to the UK too. 

Kentucky used to be part of Virginia so I suggest we take it back

[RansomthePasserby]

2 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Kentucky used to be part of Virginia so I suggest we take it back

Yes!

 

Wait. 
 

*looks over at West Virginia*

 

I don’t like where this is going. 

[tshile]

Well it was first the native Americans so….

[TradeTheBeal!]

1 hour ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Kentucky used to be part of Virginia so I suggest we take it back

 

1 hour ago, RansomthePasserby said:

Yes!

 

Wait. 
 

*looks over at West Virginia*

 

I don’t like where this is going. 

The solution to all our nations problems.

 

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Wait does that mean NC has to take back SC and TN? 😬

 

[China]

Putin accepts his invitation to the G20 summit in November

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted an invitation to attend the G20 summit that will be held on the Indonesian island of Bali in November, the country's President Joko Widodo said in a statement Friday. 

 

“Indonesia wants to unite the G20. Don't let there be a split. Peace and stability are the keys to the recovery and development of the world economy,” Widodo said in the statement from Indonesia’s Cabinet.

 

Widodo also extended an invitation earlier this week to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who tweeted he was “grateful” for the invite, but did not specify whether he would attend the summit.

 

Earlier this week, Widodo spoke with Putin and Zelensky in separate phone calls, during which he conveyed to Putin the importance of ending the war in Ukraine "immediately" and Indonesia’s desire to contribute to a peaceful resolution to the conflict, according to the statement.

 

Widodo said he conveyed to Zelensky Indonesia’s readiness to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine but not military assistance, which he said is prohibited by Indonesia’s constitution and its foreign policy principles.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Putin unleashes submarine missiles for first time in terrifying strike

 

Moscow announced the use of its submarine fleet with a terrifying video showing a volley of missiles emerging from the sea heading into the horizon.  This is the first time Russia's military has used submarine strikes against Ukrainian military targets. It comes after the Kremlin confirmed forces destroyed the facility of a space-rocket plant in Kyiv as part of its "special military operation", Russia's defence ministry said. It added: "High-precision long-range air-based weapons destroyed the production facilities of the Artem rocket and space industry enterprise in the city of Kyiv."

 

 

[Die Hard]

24 minutes ago, China said:

Putin accepts his invitation to the G20 summit in November

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted an invitation to attend the G20 summit that will be held on the Indonesian island of Bali in November, the country's President Joko Widodo said in a statement Friday. 

 

“Indonesia wants to unite the G20. Don't let there be a split. Peace and stability are the keys to the recovery and development of the world economy,” Widodo said in the statement from Indonesia’s Cabinet.

 

Widodo also extended an invitation earlier this week to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who tweeted he was “grateful” for the invite, but did not specify whether he would attend the summit.

 

Earlier this week, Widodo spoke with Putin and Zelensky in separate phone calls, during which he conveyed to Putin the importance of ending the war in Ukraine "immediately" and Indonesia’s desire to contribute to a peaceful resolution to the conflict, according to the statement.

 

Widodo said he conveyed to Zelensky Indonesia’s readiness to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine but not military assistance, which he said is prohibited by Indonesia’s constitution and its foreign policy principles.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Putin unleashes submarine missiles for first time in terrifying strike

 

Moscow announced the use of its submarine fleet with a terrifying video showing a volley of missiles emerging from the sea heading into the horizon.  This is the first time Russia's military has used submarine strikes against Ukrainian military targets. It comes after the Kremlin confirmed forces destroyed the facility of a space-rocket plant in Kyiv as part of its "special military operation", Russia's defence ministry said. It added: "High-precision long-range air-based weapons destroyed the production facilities of the Artem rocket and space industry enterprise in the city of Kyiv."

 

 

 

I thought this special military operation was supposed to be the denazification of Ukraine.
 

Why are they hitting space industry enterprises?

 

Or is every Ukrainian a nazi?

[tshile]

8 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

Yeah, and that's a point I really don't get. Even if they're succesful they won't have the necessary ressources to rebuild those cities. So they're gonna be rulers of rubbles. Which doesn't make much sense either.

They will round up any Ukrainians left when it’s over, ship them to random parts of Russia so that they cannot form any sort of resistance, then send Russians in to live in the area and they’ll happily go in and work hard to clean up and rebuild their new home. 

2 hours ago, Die Hard said:

 

I thought this special military operation was supposed to be the denazification of Ukraine.
 

Why are they hitting space industry enterprises?

 

Or is every Ukrainian a nazi?

Because obviously there are nazis in space because of ukraine. 
 

I mean we started the space force to go get them and Russia is trying to stop ukraine from sending more. 

[China]

Russia’s War on Ukraine Has Nearly Doubled Its Fossil-Fuel Revenues

 

Russia has nearly doubled its revenues from selling fossil fuels to the EU during the two months of its war in Ukraine, benefiting from soaring prices even as volumes have been reduced.

 

Russia has received about $65 billion from exports of oil, gas, and coal in the two months since the invasion began, according to an analysis of shipping movements and cargos by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

 

For the EU, imports were about $46 billion for the past two months, compared with about $147 billion for the whole of last year, or roughly $12.3 billion a month.

 

The findings demonstrate how Russia has continued to benefit from its stranglehold over Europe’s energy supply, even while governments have frantically sought to prevent Vladimir Putin using oil and gas as an economic weapon.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

------------------------------------------

 

In related news...

 

ExxonMobil took a $3.4 billion hit for exiting Russia. Its profit still soared

 

ExxonMobil took at $3.4 billion charge for exiting its business in Russia in the first quarter, but it still posted sharply higher profits on high oil prices

 

Revenue at ExxonMobil soared 53% to $90.5 billion. Even with the charge for exiting Russia, net income doubled to $5.4 billion. And excluding special items, its income more than tripled to $8.8 billion from $2.7 billion a year earlier.

But its earnings per share excluding special items were slightly lower than forecast by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) were down about 1% in premarket trading on the report.

In March, about a week after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ExxonMobil announced it would discontinue its Sakhalin-1 project in Russia.

BP (BP) and Shell also announced their intentions to leave Russia. The United States and some other allies announced they would stop purchases of Russian oil.

Despite the large charge ExxonMobil reported Friday, the Russia business it exited did not account for much of its revenue or oil assets. ExxonMobil's 2021 annual report put the value of its Russian assets at $4.1 billion, but that represented less than 2% of those assets worldwide.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Ooops...

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

2 minutes ago, China said:

Ooops...

 

 

Someone a gonna die for that mistake…

 

 

 

 

 

War is slow.

Edited April 29, 2022 by CousinsCowgirl84

[RansomthePasserby]

9 minutes ago, China said:

Ooops...

 

 

Fun fact: the measurements of a tank on a flat bed is the design constraint used for bridge clearances over US interstates for this exact reason.