Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[visionary]

Getting worse.

 

[The Sisko]

What I'd like to see happening is the rotation into the west of Ukrainian military personnel for training on some key modern western weapons systems and then send those groups back with the systems they've trained on. Over time, we could eventually build their capabilities to make Russian losses untenable. After this is over, even if they're officially neutral, they need to be transitioned over to western equipment. Ditto for all the other former Warsaw Pact countries still using Soviet era systems. Aside from improving their capabilities, I think it would also decrease the market for Russian systems since many of them are based on or improvements on the Soviet era stuff.

Edited April 8, 2022 by The Sisko

[Wildbunny]

I'm not sure they would have enough time for training and such. They need help ASAP.

And once it's over, I'd love to see Ukraine and anybody else officially join NATO/EU the very next day just to piss Russians in a "Go **** yourselves" kind of move.

2 hours ago, visionary said:

 

Yes it is.

Then on it left in the Russian Parliament you do have the Communists. And on the right the other party are fans of the Romanoff dinasty, which aren't good guys either.

[DogofWar1]

So, assuming Russia isn't completely stupid, their objectives to declare a "victory" are probably:

1. Control the south portion of the Kherson region south of the Dniper River to ensure control of the North Crimean Canal. (This is presently accomplished)

2. Hold the coastline of the Sea of Azov (this is 95% accomplished and Mariupol's situation seems to be further deteriorating).

3. Take the Donbas region or at least to Kramatorsk, as that seems to be where the main access to the Yuzivska gas field is.  (Not accomplished but they are about 25 miles out from it on North side and are semi-encircling it from North, South, and East).

 

I suspect if they take those they will be willing to declare "victory" in their special military operation.

 

Ukraine will not agree to a ceasefire/armistice/treaty, but there will be pressure to lower active hostilities most likely.

 

Russia ends up with another frozen conflict to add to the pile.

 

Now if Russia fails to get to Kramatorsk, then all bets are off.  I dunno what they'll do then.

Edited April 8, 2022 by DogofWar1

[DCSaints_fan]

Came across this guy Peter Zeihan.  He's got some pretty controversial ideas but his basic thesis was that this is basically Phase 1 of Russia's plane to "plug the gaps" as it has always historical sought to do so since the time of Catherine the Great.  Unfortunately alot of those gaps are in NATO countries. 😟 So its in the West's interest to keep Russia in Ukraine as long as possible, definitely do not let them border NATO country or Moldova.
 

 

[Die Hard]

30 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Came across this guy Peter Zeihan.  He's got some pretty controversial ideas but his basic thesis was that this is basically Phase 1 of Russia's plane to "plug the gaps" as it has always historical sought to do so since the time of Catherine the Great.  Unfortunately alot of those gaps are in NATO countries. 😟 So its in the West's interest to keep Russia in Ukraine as long as possible, definitely do not let them border NATO country or Moldova.
 

 

Too funny. One of my patients, who is Ukrainian, shared this video with me last weekend. 

All geopolitical stuff. Apparently he called this Russian invasion into Ukraine 8 years ago… said they would invade in 8 years from now. He says the Ukraine is phase 4 of 9 to close all the gaps because the age demographics are declining and they won’t have a military to defend so many borders.

 

But the takeaway is… the invasions aren’t ending.

 

I suppose it sounds logical. I guess we’ll see in the next 30-40 years.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Die Hard

[PleaseBlitz]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

So, assuming Russia isn't completely stupid, their objectives to declare a "victory" are probably:

1. Control the south portion of the Kherson region south of the Dniper River to ensure control of the North Crimean Canal. (This is presently accomplished)

2. Hold the coastline of the Sea of Azov (this is 95% accomplished and Mariupol's situation seems to be further deteriorating).

3. Take the Donbas region or at least to Kramatorsk, as that seems to be where the main access to the Yuzivska gas field is.  (Not accomplished but they are about 25 miles out from it on North side and are semi-encircling it from North, South, and East).

 

I suspect if they take those they will be willing to declare "victory" in their special military operation.

 

Ukraine will not agree to a ceasefire/armistice/treaty, but there will be pressure to lower active hostilities most likely.

 

Russia ends up with another frozen conflict to add to the pile.

 

Now if Russia fails to get to Kramatorsk, then all bets are off.  I dunno what they'll do then.

 

So then the question becomes, what happens after Russia declares "victory" or otherwise ceases active hostilities?  Russia is going to want to get back to its old economic position, and a lot of interests will want that to happen (i.e., Russia has a lot of resources that people want/need).  

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

[DogofWar1]

 

[DogofWar1]

22 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

So then the question becomes, what happens after Russia declares "victory" or otherwise ceases active hostilities?  Russia is going to want to get back to its old economic position, and a lot of interests will want that to happen (i.e., Russia has a lot of resources that people want/need).  

 

Well that's the 1.71 trillion dollar question.

 

For Russia/Ukraine, Russia probably wants to reinforce their gains to the same extent as the pre-Feb 24 lines, which Zelenskyy acknowledges would cost like 50k deaths to make major gains and the Russians would just come back.

 

Not to mention, if Russia declares the land theirs, legally they can send in conscripts.

 

That puts pressure on Zelenskyy to lessen combat actions, if not to outright cut a deal, though that seems unlikely.

 

As for the economies, I don't think normalization is happening soon.  Russia will cozy up to China who will probably feel more comfortable working with Russia after major hostilities end.  The west has a tough call then, to start hurting economic relations with China over largely simmering hostilities or to let it happen.  Considering the energy crunch Europe will be under, I don't think there's a lot Europe can do bc you can't spurn Russia AND China (for long) without major economic consequences.

 

Ukraine probably joins the EU.  Probably does not join NATO but gets a bunch of stuff from them.  Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia probably sticks nukes in Belarus as a counter move.

 

Then we start to get out a ways in time and it's really hard to say.  How is the Russian economy doing?  How is Europe's?  Has North/South Korea done something stupid?  Has China attacked Taiwan?  Who wins the midterms in the US, and who wins elections in Europe?

 

And of course all of this is based on many many assumptions that could be made all bad very quickly.  So we'll see.

[FrFan]

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by FrFan

[FrFan]

 

[88Comrade2000]

Macron upset Putin played him like a fiddle. Well, Macron you might have to worry about it muvh longer, as Marie Le Pen is closing on you fast.

[DCSaints_fan]

17 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Macron upset Putin played him like a fiddle. Well, Macron you might have to worry about it muvh longer, as Marie Le Pen is closing on you fast.

I think Putin is banking on internal NATO infighting eventually disintegrating the alliance. Because thats the only chance he has at the Baltics and Poland.  A Le Pen win would push that goal along quite well.  German reliance on Russian natural gas is another problem. So lets say Le Pen wins, and economic pressures on Germany either force them to accept Russian ultimatums, or if they do deicide to cut off Russian NG imports, the affect on the economy is so disasterous that widespread unemployment leads to a right-wing, pro-Putin, anti-NATO faction taking power.

 

So lets assume the worst case that France and Germany leave NATO.  Would it still hold under that pressure?

Edited April 8, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[88Comrade2000]

5 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

I think Putin is banking on internal NATO infighting eventually disintegrating the alliance. Because thats the only chance he has at the Baltics and Poland.  A Le Pen win would push that goal along quite well.  German reliance on Russian natural gas is another problem. So lets say Le Pen wins, and economic pressures on Germany either force them to accept Russian ultimatums, or if they do deicide to cut off Russian NG imports, the affect on the economy is so disasterous that widespread unemployment leads to a right-wing, pro-Putin, anti-NATO faction taking power.

 

So lets assume the worst case that France and Germany leave NATO.  Would it still hold under that pressure?

NATO will eventually fold; if that happened.

 

If Trump won, we would’ve left already and if he wins in 24; he’s leaving NATO.

 

Guarantee you Putin us interfering in every NATO countries future elections until those countries elect pro-Putin leaders.

[RansomthePasserby]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

That probably matches about what the Russians have lost in killed and wounded. They need replacements. 

[tshile]

Does anyone else find it odd so many people are visiting ukraine?

 

I just don’t get how, given russias actions to date, anyone would think that’s a good idea. Much less to announce it beforehand. 
 

most of them were visiting Kiev if I recall correctly. 

[Wildbunny]

3 hours ago, Die Hard said:

All geopolitical stuff. Apparently he called this Russian invasion into Ukraine 8 years ago… said they would invade in 8 years from now. He says the Ukraine is phase 4 of 9 to close all the gaps because the age demographics are declining and they won’t have a military to defend so many borders.

The truth is that the invasion started 8 years ago when Russia entered Crimea and claimed it was theirs. Fights never stopped since then.

That's how it's been for 8 years in the Donbass. We tend to think it started a month ago, because it wasn't on many westerns media since 2014 but it never stopped.

 

So his claim is really not a big deal.

 

2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Macron upset Putin played him like a fiddle. Well, Macron you might have to worry about it muvh longer, as Marie Le Pen is closing on you fast.

Too bad, election is in two days. And honestly, I don't see her won on April the 24th. She won't go through the 50% mark. She might be close, and probably will, Macron will more than likely get a second term.

 

2 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

I think Putin is banking on internal NATO infighting eventually disintegrating the alliance. Because thats the only chance he has at the Baltics and Poland.  A Le Pen win would push that goal along quite well.  German reliance on Russian natural gas is another problem. So lets say Le Pen wins, and economic pressures on Germany either force them to accept Russian ultimatums, or if they do deicide to cut off Russian NG imports, the affect on the economy is so disasterous that widespread unemployment leads to a right-wing, pro-Putin, anti-NATO faction taking power.

 

So lets assume the worst case that France and Germany leave NATO.  Would it still hold under that pressure?

There's more infighting within EU than within NATO right now. Mostly because NATO is ruled by Biden and nobody else. When Biden's speak, that's for US/NATO. When any European leader speaks, well, that's for their country.

 

Le Pen's improbable win wouldn't change much really. She probably wouldn't be able to rule the country with the renewal of the deputies in June. She'll never have enough deputies to get votes for. That one would be really astonishing. And Le Pen won't get out of NATO. She might retreat from commanding, but NATO? Don't see that happening. She used to be in favor of a Frexit type of move, and backed off from this.

 

Real problem in EU right now, is Germany. They are taking lots of heat from every side with their stupid position dating back from Merkel to please Ecologist so they shut down all their nuclear plant for coal plants and russian gas. That's because Germany have been entrenched in economics for so long that they forgot the geopolitical basics. The German president played it fair and square this week, asking his people what did they really wanted? No gas and defense of Ukraine, or not? That was gutsy. I'm not sure Germans will back this up really. When Russia cut off gas to Germany years ago, Germany bow down and bought even more gas from them to please the Russians. So the strongest economic country in Europe is also our Achilles' heel.

There's some cracks within EU right now, those were bound to happen, but they are all fixable. You just don't want them to spread further more becuse that would probably lead to the end of Europe. It survived so long because of the French/German will, nothing else.

 

And honestly, if Russia steps into Poland, there'll be war within Europe as everyone will goes in it. Poland is in NATO, EU. Both do have some kind of military agreement, so that'll triggers it.

But even if I thought Putin would do it, after Ukraine, with all the spanking is getting from Ukrainian, he'll need time to heal and reinforce before doing something else even more stupid.

[DogofWar1]

Has anyone ever force fed Russia a chill pill.

 

Like for real, they desperately need it.

 

 

[Redskins Diehard]

8 hours ago, The Sisko said:

What I'd like to see happening is the rotation into the west of Ukrainian military personnel for training on some key modern western weapons systems and then send those groups back with the systems they've trained on. Over time, we could eventually build their capabilities to make Russian losses untenable. After this is over, even if they're officially neutral, they need to be transitioned over to western equipment. Ditto for all the other former Warsaw Pact countries still using Soviet era systems. Aside from improving their capabilities, I think it would also decrease the market for Russian systems since many of them are based on or improvements on the Soviet era stuff.

We have been training Ukraine forces for years. Not only on how to order them but the best tactics to get the most out of them.  

 

Edit:

To your point...I agree. Doubt any former Eastern Bloc countries will be adding to their Soviet era weapons

Edited April 8, 2022 by Redskins Diehard

[@DCGoldPants]

3 hours ago, RansomthePasserby said:

That probably matches about what the Russians have lost in killed and wounded. They need replacements. 

 

Let's replace our full time soldiers who were beaten with reservists who are not as well trained. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by @DCGoldPants

[visionary]

 

[Die Hard]

What the heck is that May 9th celebratory date?!? 
 

Is it that big a deal? How is it honored/celebrated?

 

And what the heck is with this incessant narrative that something has to be won to honor by this arbitrary date?

 

Is this about ratings?

 

And I mean at this point…. does it really matter? Putin can say he just nuked the USA and killed all the Nazis in Europe. Tomorrow. And Russians won’t buy that?!? Anyone that says anything to the contrary is just fake news, Russophobia and staged pictures or false flags. What a playbook.

[DogofWar1]

21 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

What the heck is that May 9th celebratory date?!? 
 

Is it that big a deal? How is it honored/celebrated?

 

And what the heck is with this incessant narrative that something has to be won to honor by this arbitrary date?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_Day_(9_May)

 

Beeg holiday

Also can I say, I dunno, it seems mildly funny that like, it's a HUGE DEAL that they gave Zelenskyy a questionnaire for EU membership

 

 

Like, a questionnaire?

 

Just imagining it's like:

 

Name: _______________________

Country: _______________________

 

1. Why do you want to be part of the EU? _______________________________________________________

2. How big is your GDP? ________________________________________________________

3. Do you find German humor funny? __________________________________________________

4. Do you like to eat snails? _______________________________________________________

5. Why is Fish and Chips the best cuisine? THIS QUESTION HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

2 hours ago, visionary said:

 

He doesn’t care enough to meet with his dead generals…