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The Official QB Thread- With Howell the Season Went and the #2 Pick, What's next. Including Rookie QB Talk.


Koolblue13

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As for the O lines.  At least by PFF metrics its interesting to go through.  I noticed there is good overlap though with DVOA ratings too on the O line.

 

Some of the teams in the playoffs not hot at O line according to PFF.  From worse to best below

 

30th Giants

28th Bengals

27th Seahawks

23rd Bills

22nd Dolphins

19th Jaguars

17th Chargers

13th Vikings

12th Cowboys

9th Tampa

7th 49ers

4th Chiefs

2nd Ravens

1st Eagles

Tampa Bay no.9?  Seattle no.27? 

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6 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Tampa Bay no.9?  Seattle no.27? 

 

 

giphy.gif

 

 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2022-nfl-offensive-line-rankings

9. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (UP 1)

Week 18 Starters:

LT Brandon Walton
LG Nick Leverett
C Robert Hainsey
RG Shaq Mason
RT Luke Goedeke

  • Tampa Bay shuffled its line with little to play for in Week 18. No lineman allowed more than a single pressure against Atlanta.
  • The unit finished first in the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency, giving up 130 pressures as a unit from 776 pass-blocking snaps. Tom Brady also finished with the fastest average time to throw in the league.

Best Player: Tristan Wirfs

  • Tristan Wirfs allowed just five total pressures all season, albeit two of them being sacks. 

27. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (UP 2)

Week 18 Starters:

LT Charles Cross
LG Damien Lewis
C Austin Blythe
RG Gabe Jackson

RT Abraham Lucas

  • Seattle’s rookie tackles each earned PFF pass-blocking grades of 63.9 or better, performing at least at an average starter level all season.
  • The Seahawks’ line placed dead last in the PFF offensive line rankings before climbing as high as 11th only to collapse down the stretch.

Best Player: Damien Lewis

  • Damien Lewis allowed just 19 pressures all season and finished the regular season with the best PFF run-blocking grade of the group (66.7).
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9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The Giants have owned us long before Daniel Jones.

 

And yes if we judge the Giants based on their games against us, they are world beaters.  

 

2 of our players, I recall Wynn was one of them who played for both teams said its part of the culture of the Giants to own Washington.  They expect to beat us.

 

I recall one of their beat guys say after they lost to Washington one season it was the low point of the year because they always expect to beat Washington.

 

I recall Andrel Rolle saying the Giants if they played Washington would beat them 99 times out of 100.

 

It's far from just a Daniel Jones thing.

 

Mara said of all teams in the NFC East, Washington is the one he enjoys beating the most

 

like I said if you watched the Giants play against the other two teams vying for that playoff spot this season -- the Lions, Seattle, the Giants looked like hot garbage.  Other teams have no problem scoring against them.      

 

It's really pathetic on this team's end as to how the Giants are basically their daddy.  And I've whined about this on game threads long before Daniel Jones got here.

 

Does that mean the Giants are really good just about every year and we just don't recognize it because we are homers?  Nope IMO.  It means they own this rivalry.  Just like Indy even when they were better couldn't beat Jax in Jax.  Patriots struggiling in Miami.  It's our version of that but much worse.

 

 

Why would any of this matter? I dont care what Mara thinks, what the giants players think or their fans. Ignore them, they've been as irrelevant as we have the past decade, king of the ---- pile of irrelevant NFC East teams is still king of only a ---- pile.

 

We should aim higher than shutting up irrelevant players, and owners and fans. We should aim to build a team that contends year in and year out. It starts with launching Snyder out of here with a Trebuchet, and then goes to finding that QB and building out the lines and the rest of the team, we've got one line done, do the other and go from there and STOP wasting valuable pick assets in stupid trades. Theres more than one recipe for building a great team, but other than trading for a young franchise QB, any trade involving picks should be oriented towards getting more, not losing more, and go from there. The way to do this is pretty simple and straight forward and there's a reason Philly has risen to the top of the heap. Great roster management, smart, precise trading and value based drafting etc. 

 

We shouldn't care about the giants. They haven't built squat. I ---- on Jones during the week and with good reason and sure enough they were annihilated saturday. They aren't relevant. Defense is too garbage, Offense is too limited. We can pass them pretty easily with better QB play, and fix up of the OL and some health. If Howell is a legit hit, and we can patch up what we don't simply need to get healthy for the OL, we should not have a problem escorting them back to the cellar in 2023. I might be more bothered by New York Giants fans, but I don't have to deal with them being out west, and like us, they've been irrelevant out here for decades other than two wild outlier super bowl runs that were flukey as hell in 2007, 2011 (as I posted a long time ago, it aint always fun to be a giant fan I imagine, but man, 1990 (fluke Roger Craig fumble), 2007, and 2011 all stand out as some of the nuttiest, biggest outlier super bowl wins imaginable. They got them so scoreboard, but honestly, since that 1990 run (when they were genuinely at the end of a great 8 or so year run) they have not been very good, better than us, but again, more often than not, they've been in the ---- pile right next to us. They shouldn't matter to us. Getting rid of the cancer that is the ownership, and rebuilding the reputation of the team and the strength of the roster is about 10,000x more important than whatever those idiots say. 

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9 hours ago, KDawg said:

Bottom line is that it doesn’t matter how explosive your offense is. If weather gets tough and you have no run game you lose. See: Buffalo.

I think its relevant, I just don't think its efficient, but considering how insanely cheap quality RB's are these days, and how important OL's are independent of them, it shouldn't be hard to fix a ---- running game. I don't always hit on my evals, but since I started dynasty, the RBs that were obvious values stuck out generally pretty well:

 

'17: 

Mixon, Cook, Jones, and Marlon Mack pre-injury. I liked Alvin Kamara but had no idea he'd be that good. Fournette and McCaffrey were overdrafts but McCaffrey mostly made up for it (Fournette did not obviously). 

 

'18:

Chubb, Penny (didnt hit mostly due to injuries), Guice (we didn't know he was a monster)

 

'19: Miles Sanders

 

'20: Swift, Taylor, Akers, Dobbins were the obvious guys, Gibson was hyped and I thought delivered, Robinson surprised, CEH disappointed.

 

'21: I was an Etienne guy, most were a Najee guy, I ddin't like many of the other RB's that much.

 

'22: Breece Hall then Kenneth Walker, then a steep drop off to a bunch of guys similarly valued (James Cook, TDP, Brian Robinson etc)

 

Basically, if you want a bell cow, sniff around in round 2 and you can get 4 years of top end production typically at little cost. There are land mines for sure, 2018 was particularly rife w/them, but generally its not that hard to tell, '16, '17, '19, '20, '21, and '22 all played out almost exactly as suspected. Its basically the perfect recipe, wait for round 2, and then pay for their age 22-25 seasons and let someone else pay for their declines in free agency. Do not resign them, prepare for their replacement during their age 25 season, age 26 at the latest. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I think its relevant, I just don't think its efficient, but considering how insanely cheap quality RB's are these days, and how important OL's are independent of them, it shouldn't be hard to fix a ---- running game. I don't always hit on my evals, but since I started dynasty, the RBs that were obvious values stuck out generally pretty well:

 

'17: 

Mixon, Cook, Jones, and Marlon Mack pre-injury. I liked Alvin Kamara but had no idea he'd be that good. Fournette and McCaffrey were overdrafts but McCaffrey mostly made up for it (Fournette did not obviously). 

 

'18:

Chubb, Penny (didnt hit mostly due to injuries), Guice (we didn't know he was a monster)

 

'19: Miles Sanders

 

'20: Swift, Taylor, Akers, Dobbins were the obvious guys, Gibson was hyped and I thought delivered, Robinson surprised, CEH disappointed.

 

'21: I was an Etienne guy, most were a Najee guy, I ddin't like many of the other RB's that much.

 

'22: Breece Hall then Kenneth Walker, then a steep drop off to a bunch of guys similarly valued (James Cook, TDP, Brian Robinson etc)

 

Basically, if you want a bell cow, sniff around in round 2 and you can get 4 years of top end production typically at little cost. There are land mines for sure, 2018 was particularly rife w/them, but generally its not that hard to tell, '16, '17, '19, '20, '21, and '22 all played out almost exactly as suspected. Its basically the perfect recipe, wait for round 2, and then pay for their age 22-25 seasons and let someone else pay for their declines in free agency. Do not resign them, prepare for their replacement during their age 25 season, age 26 at the latest. 

 

 


Not going to lie, I have no idea what this has to do with my point that you need a running game.

 

The Bills running game is lacking due to a back that can shoulder the load, but more so because their OL isn’t very good. In fact, their line is overall worse than ours imo. Allen made them look better than they were.

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I should add, you should do this in advance as a front office. Its annoying to hear people use the fantasy angle, but dynasty fantasy players knew that:

The '15 RB class was top heavy.

The '16 RB class was as bad and maybe worse than the '09-'13 drought other than Zeke.

The '17 RB class was loaded.

The '18 RB class was loaded (it wasn't as it turned out, Guice busted on character and injuries, Michel was fake, Ronald Jones was fake, Kerryon got hurt). 

The '19 RB class was shallow and lacked top end guys (true).

The '20 RB class was loaded (true).

The '21 and '22 RB classes were top heavy with big drop offs (true both years).

The '23 RB was predicted to be pretty erratic after Bijan and it is. Pretty steep drop off. Bijan is as good as any prospect the last 20 years in terms of his upside, but after him, the class looks a lot like '19 and '21-'22 with guys that are probably 3rd rounders, late 2nds, and 4th rounders being interesting but very risky. This is a draft where if we hadn't already taken Robinson last year, I'd be looking at Charbonnet as a value (bet he goes 55-100 but I may revise that with the combine #'s), seeing if Tucker and Gibbs can be had in a trade down in round 2 or 3, Bijan is great, but not worth a 1st because you should never put yourself in a situation where you feel like you should give them a second contract. It almost never works out. 

 

Gurley

Melvin Gordon

Zeke and beyond, it just doesn't work. So pass on him.

 

That being said, i think we're fine with Gibson and Robinson, I'd start looking at RB again for the '24/'25 drafts, though I'm not sure the '24 guys are that great either.

 

After a great run of RB's '17-'20, it's been a bit tougher sledding '21-'23.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think any new stat that showed that Heinicke and Wentz sucked isn't a revelation of any kind.

 

It's part of my optimism for next season.  They went 500 with abysmal QB play and bad pass protection.

Every season is its own thing, every story its own story. What happens if we're healthier? What happens if the Giants can stay healthier at WR? What happens if the Eagles are less healthy? What happens as the Cowboys have to figure out what to do at RB and as their OL finally begins to fall apart. So many pieces.

 

To me the easiest way to look at it is this:

If we can fix our OL to solid.

If we can fix our QB play to league average.

 

We should be at least a league average team. Our big problem is we are in one of the toughest divisions. While I'm not sold there is a single world beater team in it, I do think the Giants and Cowboys are inside the 10th-15th, and the 5th-10th area, and that the eagles have climbed into the 1-6 or so area. That is part of the reason why our strength of schedule #'s for draft position nearly always suck. Our 6 divisional games are usually against 2 playoff teams and usually a .500 team whereas most teams usually have at least one team that is total ---, most years the NFC East is typically 2 top 10-12 teams and 2 teams somewhere in that 10-20 zone. 

 

SO while we might solve OL, and we might move forward to solid QB play, our division is still more difficult to play in the North, South or West, and the AFC's South is inferior and maybe the East too (the West is just weird). 

 

Not sure. the way I'd play it is this way:

Improved OL+Howell or whatever we get in addition to him is league average: 

Ceiling: 11 wins

Expectation: 9.5 wins

Floor: 8 wins

 

OL+Howell Mystery Box:

Ceiling: 9 wins

Expectation: 7.5 wins

Floor: 5 wins.

 

By mystery box, I mean, they play out randomly based on reasonable odds.

 

It's a weird season, I think we could grab 2nd place in division, but I also think we could be irrelevant again and picking 10-15th again as a result, and if we rock bottom at QB and OL, then all the rest of the good things (DL, playmakers some CB play) means ---- all, and we could win just 4-5.

 

Remember, we were one of the worst 4 teams in football coming out of september. We could be again if things don't go our way. It's a real, real weird spectrum of possibilities. 

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Some talk here about the Giants.  They got a really interesting off season ahead because the one thing they really did well IMO is run the ball -- both Barkley and Jones.  But doing the math, if they just want to keep them and their interior O line/depth and lets say 1 of their best 2 Wrs -- they are likely up against the cap. 

 

On defense its their two DTs that get the love and justifably so.  But Lawrence is about to get a Payne like payday, he's a bargain now but that's about to change, his contract is up after this coming season. 

 

An ESPN writer speculated yesterday they will let Barkley go.

 

As for the O line. Thomas got off to a slow start his rookie season but he wasn't awful then, he was just ok and played some of his better games towards the end of the rookie seaon.  Neal wasn't just OK, he was bad, and he wasn't trending up as the season was ending.  And yeah I am rooting against Neal, don't want the Giants to be good. :D

 

 

 

 

Somebody is going to really give Saquon too much money but I will say he could be a guy that evades the RB age cliff. He's basically missed all or big chunks of what, every season in between 2018 and 2022. 

 

But it doesn't matter this is a league where you could get Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, Antonio Gibson, healthy Cam Akers, and Kenneth Walker in those '17, '18, 19, '20 and '22 drafts after round 1 on super, super cheap deals. Why on earth would you pay for Saquon's decline when you can see that track record? Especially when you see 2nd contracts for Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Zeke, Fournette if he'd gotten it, McCaffrey being such obvious mistakes? 

 

I'd be happier if they did give him a cap busting stupid deal. 

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31 minutes ago, KDawg said:


Not going to lie, I have no idea what this has to do with my point that you need a running game.

 

The Bills running game is lacking due to a back that can shoulder the load, but more so because their OL isn’t very good. In fact, their line is overall worse than ours imo. Allen made them look better than they were.

I was agreeing but arguing that you can set about building it cheaply. You don't need to prioritize it in the same way you do the OL piece of it. RB's are cheap as hell these days, so if you want the running game, build the OL, build the passing game, and then take your shots at legit rb prospects you can get in rounds 2 in 3 in drafts on the cheap. In most drafts since 2017 (excluding 2021)I've seen absolute stud RB prospects available after round 1 (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022). I think you can use it too, but I think the way to get it is to address OL and the passing game first, and then target the right classes w/the right prospects. 2015, 2016, 2019, 2021 all not great, but 2017, 2018 (didnt turn out great, but the prospects were legit, it doesnt always work out), 2020, 2022 all offered really legit and cheap answers as cherry's on top for offense. More than a dozen legit RB starters were available in those classes on the cheap and a lot of them were particularly obvious (It aint easy to find an Aaron Jones, or James Robinson, but guys like Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Kenneth Walker etc were all blatantly obvious talents). 

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52 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Why would he? I never thought he did. 

Yeah, it’s not really any cool news. My girlfriends friend used to date him and talks to him periodically, she saw him in Atlanta this past weekend and said he didn’t want to go back to Washington. I would have been surprised if he did 

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1 hour ago, max21 said:

Just know, that I know, that Heinicke doesn’t want to re sign in Washington. Obviously money talks, but just know 

I can see why he would want to go somewhere else to prove he isn’t just a system guy. Plus Ron threw him under the bus many times in the past two seasons.

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46 minutes ago, max21 said:

Yeah, it’s not really any cool news. My girlfriends friend used to date him and talks to him periodically, she saw him in Atlanta this past weekend and said he didn’t want to go back to Washington. I would have been surprised if he did 

I think he knows Howell is probably the guy and I don’t think he’s the kind of dude that wants to step on his shine because of the rabid fanbase. Plus with Turner gone he’ll want to clear space.

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45 minutes ago, max21 said:

Yeah, it’s not really any cool news. My girlfriends friend used to date him and talks to him periodically, she saw him in Atlanta this past weekend and said he didn’t want to go back to Washington. I would have been surprised if he did 

 

Might be telling theres another incoming vet because he stated at the end of the season he was okay being a back up to Howell but not if they brought in another vet.

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34 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

I can see why he would want to go somewhere else to prove he isn’t just a system guy. Plus Ron threw him under the bus many times in the past two seasons.


By throwing him under the bus do you mean understandably attempting to upgrade the position with someone better than Heinicke? 

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1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

Might be telling theres another incoming vet because he stated at the end of the season he was okay being a back up to Howell but not if they brought in another vet.

 

Well... Yeah,

Once we cut Wentz our QB room will be Howell and Fromm. Obviously not gonna cut it.

 

There is no question we are adding to the room. The only vagueness is who and how much we can spend.

We will add a vet, though I could also see a young addition in the draft on top of that to bump off Fromm.

 

Your not going into a season w/ that level of minimal XP in your QB room. That would be silly.

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2 hours ago, Conn said:


By throwing him under the bus do you mean understandably attempting to upgrade the position with someone better than Heinicke? 

Well, sure, but Rivera could have had some better tact while doing so.  Reporter: "What separates you guys fro...."; Rivera: "Quarterback!"

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

Your not going into a season w/ that level of minimal XP in your QB room. That would be silly.

As long as Howell gets a fair shot at being the starter and they don't shell out huge $$$ for a veteran that hinders your ability to upgrade other positions, I am okay with it.  And you can let Ron know.  :cheers:

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21 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

Well, sure, but Rivera could have had some better tact while doing so.  Reporter: "What separates you guys fro...."; Rivera: "Quarterback!"

As long as Howell gets a fair shot at being the starter and they don't shell out huge $$$ for a veteran that hinders your ability to upgrade other positions, I am okay with it.  And you can let Ron know.  :cheers:

I don't know if you meant it this way, but this comes across as Rivera yelling quarterback. 

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2 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Well... Yeah,

Once we cut Wentz our QB room will be Howell and Fromm. Obviously not gonna cut it  . . . .

 

. . . until Fromm turns out to be absolutely amazing because he high fived Brock Purdy in middle school and has his super powers god I need to go to bed ambien sucks

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9 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Well... Yeah,

Once we cut Wentz our QB room will be Howell and Fromm. Obviously not gonna cut it.

 

There is no question we are adding to the room. The only vagueness is who and how much we can spend.

We will add a vet, though I could also see a young addition in the draft on top of that to bump off Fromm.

 

Your not going into a season w/ that level of minimal XP in your QB room. That would be silly.

 

Sure but it was also stated in the end of year presser that they wanted Heinicke back.

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14 hours ago, Conn said:


By throwing him under the bus do you mean understandably attempting to upgrade the position with someone better than Heinicke? 

 

From emotional stand point I would say benching him for the Brows game. The team had gotten so close to being in the playoffs while he was the starter. I am sure he believed he would have had a better shot than Wentz since we lost with Wentz instead. 

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18 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

From emotional stand point I would say benching him for the Brows game. The team had gotten so close to being in the playoffs while he was the starter. I am sure he believed he would have had a better shot than Wentz since we lost with Wentz instead. 


 

Then he probably should have played well enough to avoid being benched, right? That’s not “throwing someone under the bus”. Something had to be done to try to bring the spark Heinicke had stopped bringing many games earlier. Rivera stuck with him plenty long. Too long, according to most objective observers. Wentz bombing doesn’t change that. 

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14 hours ago, Conn said:


By throwing him under the bus do you mean understandably attempting to upgrade the position with someone better than Heinicke? 

Do you realize how silly this sounds with hindsight? Which you have the benefit of having?

Just now, Conn said:


 

Then he probably should have played well enough to avoid being benched, right? That’s not “throwing someone under the bus”. Something had to be done to try to bring the spark Heinicke had stopped bringing many games earlier. Rivera stuck with him plenty long. Too long, according to most objective observers. 

Sure, and I agreed and said at the time I was excited to see Wentz. I was so incredibly wrong I’m embarrassed, and I’m even more embarrassed he’s my user name on here. The fact you’re doubling down and basically excusing Ron for making an awful decision in retrospect shows where your agenda really lies.

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