The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randal 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariota and Fromm battle for QB2

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 minutes ago, NickyJ said:

The only team that Smith lost to that finished with a losing record in 2018 was the Atlanta Falcons at 7-9. Every other loss was to a team that finished the season with 10+ games. They were good teams. You're reading too deeply into a common statistic: Good teams beat mediocre teams. So far this season, Heinicke has beaten one tean with a winning record: The Eagles. That was a good win, but there's only one more team with a losing record on the schedule in the Cleveland Browns. If Heinicke can close the season without choking on winning teams, THEN I'll say that Heinicke is achieving more than Alex did with 2 legs.

 

I'm not reading into any statistic...I'm not even talking about wins and losses. I'm commenting on how it's not really true that 2018 Smith and 2022 Heinicke played largely the same. The ability to overcome deficits and mistakes is wildly important, regardless of whether or not it results in wins.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

Prime Alex Smith could do some real damage with this roster/coaching staff.

 

Based on mobilty alone he would.  Heinicke doesn't run anymore heck I think Haskins (RIP) or Keenum was a bigger running threat than Taylor.  Alex in his prime could run 350-400 yards.

2 hours ago, tmandoug1 said:

I wonder if this is his own self preservation to try and make as much money as he can. Doesn't he get significant money for snaps and wins? I know it sounds selfish, but maybe he knows his ceiling is low and needs to get what he can get. Why risk hurting himself.....turns off the cash flow. 

 

Not sure.  But its befuddiling to me, a couple of times yesterday from what i saw he could have easily run for a critical first down yet he didn't do it.  

Edited November 28, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[The Sisko]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

First of all he is not a true hiver, I believe, but now on the bandwagon instead.

Second -We did beat the Eagles with an elite offense capable of scoring on anyone. 

Third -This is the formula we have THIS year and have to play it out best to our players ability as possible to get into the playoffs - or more if we are able to. 

Fourth -Scott did get a QB with a big arm this year to stretch the field but he is on the bench and that is not Taylor's fault. 

 

Taylor has to reducer his turnovers though. Scott needs to call some plays that goes to Dotson as well. But the run game is working with just enough pass plays and they are winning. So I highly doubt things will change that much because of it. 

 

You want to dump on Taylor for his limitations and that is fine but you also can't live in a vaccum and bring up points like the deep passing game when the coaches got Wetnz for that reason.

 

@Est.1974 you talk about significant amount needs to be spent on the QB in the offseason. What do you think they did when they got Wentz? Was that too cheap then? Do you want to spend $200 million on a QB that turns out to be a Russell Wilson instead? Would that make you feel better? How about spend some time and reasonable amount and get a legit QB and not a fraud instead or even develop one. Is Howell that guy? Lots of stuff to talk about in the offseason. But right now we roll with what we got and the rollercoaster ride we are on. 

 

To your second point, I said he's not good enough to regularly beat elite offensive teams and I'll stand by that until dude proves me wrong. The last three games of the season will be telling. None of those teams have truly elite offenses, but the Forty Whiners are good on both sides of the ball, the Browns will at least have an elite sexual assaulter, 'er QB under center, and even if the Cowturds do rest a lot of their players in the last game, their offense is still nothing to sneeze at and their defense is one of the best in the Niffle right now. I've already agreed with your third point. As for the fourth, you're making the same mistake that many in this thread keep making. Wentz is who we thought he was, i.e. he's just not very good so he's a poor yardstick. Instead, let's compare Heine to decent, not elite, but decent QBs and see where he stands. Again, I don't hate the guy but I also just don't understand all the hype when this is literally the team right now...

 

 

 

[NickyJ]

22 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

I'm not reading into any statistic...I'm not even talking about wins and losses. I'm commenting on how it's not really true that 2018 Smith and 2022 Heinicke played largely the same. The ability to overcome deficits and mistakes is wildly important, regardless of whether or not it results in wins.

But that's literally a statistic that you're focusing on. That when Smith fell behind against good teams, he never overcame the deficitd. Overcoming the deficit isn't important. Winning the games at all is important. If the team gets blown out by 2 TDs, is it really that important that the team didn't take a 3 point lead for 2 minutes in the second quarter?

 

It's nitpicking. Alex went 11-5 in 2 seasons, Taylor is 12-9 through 2 seasons. Alex averaged 1 TD a game and Taylor is averaging 1 TD a game. Alex set a low bar to jump over, and Taylor has not jumped over it. Alex turtled his way through games. Heinicke is matching that at his full effort. That's not me saying that Alex was an awesome bear that teams feared to poke. It's that I'm desperate for a QB who can outperform a turtle.

Edited November 28, 2022 by NickyJ

[SoCalSkins]

2 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

First of all he is not a true hiver, I believe, but now on the bandwagon instead.

 

 

I was probably the first person on this board to suggest we lock up TH4 to an extension. My eye for talent and moxie is second to none. I built the damn hive! I’m the hive godfather. I just ignored the nonsensical musing of the others until I was called out. I tried to stay out but they pulled me back in.

[DJHJR86]

Just now, NickyJ said:

It's nitpicking. Alex went 11-5 in 2 seasons, Taylor is 12-9 through 2 seasons. Alex averaged 1 TD a game and Taylor is averaging 1 TD a game. Alex set a low bar to jump over, and Taylor has not jumped over it.

 

For context, in those games where the defense gave up more than 17 points, Alex Smith was 0-5.  Taylor is 6-10.  

 

When the rushing offense totaled over 100 yards, Smith's record was 9-2.  Heinicke is 10-5 over the last 2 seasons.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, SoCalSkins said:

I was probably the first person on this board to suggest we lock up TH4 to an extension. My eye for talent and moxie is second to none. I built the damn hive! I’m the hive godfather. I just ignored the nonsensical musing of the others until I was called out. I tried to stay out but they pulled me back in.

The Hive Godfather would never be as happy as you were to get Wentz and make great claims about how awesome the team would be with him, like you did.  This was after you wanted to lock Heinicke up for 3/30M.  You are a basket case of emotions, and I understand it - that’s what this team does to people.

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

The Hive Godfather would never be as happy as you were to get Wentz and make great claims about how awesome the team would be with him, like you did.  This was after you wanted to lock Heinicke up for 3/30M.  You are a basket case of emotions, and I understand it - that’s what this team does to people.

Yes keep your friends close but your enemies closer. 

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

You prefer to be right about your opinion of TH than for Washington to win games. My feelings are hurt because the moxie guy keeps winning. Wah wah. 
 

You want to make changes to see what “could work”. You know what is working now? TH4 starting and leading this team to win after win. Put some respect on his name and bow down to his greatness. 😂 

 

Do you not know how to read? He said Taylor was hurt. By the way, if that is the case before Sunday then you could possibly see Wentz coming in. 

 

Heinicke, who was listed on the injury report with a back ailment, also kept grabbing his elbow or forearm in the second half. 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by zCommander

[DJHJR86]

5 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

For context, in those games where the defense gave up more than 17 points, Alex Smith was 0-5.  Taylor is 6-10.  

 

When the rushing offense totaled over 100 yards, Smith's record was 9-2.  Heinicke is 10-5 over the last 2 seasons.  

 

I'm not breaking any scientific formula with this news, but with games where the rushing offense was less than 100 yards, Smith was 2-5 and Heinicke was 2-5.

 

That is not to compare them as players overall, because Smith is obviously better career wise.  But here, both of them need/needed the defense to hold teams to 17 points or less, and have a solid running game to compliment them.

[Warhead36]

I'd say Smith in his prime was more of a league average type. Heinicke is clearly below average.

[zCommander]

7 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

I was probably the first person on this board to suggest we lock up TH4 to an extension.

 

This year? or the year he was brought in as the covid-emergency QB and he played that year couple of games including the playoff game?

[TradeTheBeal!]

This is good news.

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

The revelation that Taylor's been playing hurt  brings up an interesting Debbie Downer type question for the forum:

 

Are playoff snaps counted towards Wentz's 70% snap threshold?

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by CommanderInTheRye

[NeverSurrender]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

You don’t say?  First I’ve heard or noticed that.  It’s not as if the Henicke guys have been on constant loop repeating this over and over again.

 

I’ve said it numerous times now, Heinicke can’t be benched and there’s never been a reason to risk a 2nd round pick by playing Wentz.  But some of you guys are so rabid in hatred for Wentz  and/or love of Taylor, you are really disingenuous.  The OL is healthier now, Robinson returned and has his legs, and the defense made adjustments that have proven very positive.  I could care less about Wentz, and there is no way I’d risk the mojo by going with him until the Heiny hype dies.  Even then, if that’s at a point there is no chance of playoffs I’d go with Howell.  
 

But this offense is entirely different with Heinicke, it’s not even remotely close to what they deployed for Wentz.  Added protection, healthier and beyond loyal to running the ball.  

Yeah but if TH took 9 sacks in a game I think you might change your tune a bit.  I know I would. 

 

Also: what it we reinsert Wentz and he starts taking sacks again, we went 2 entire halfs of football without scoring a point with Wentz.  I have to preface (I wasnt a Wentz hater) I was ok with the move and genuinely rooting for him.  We can say the oline is playing better but is that really a coincidence?  There not healthy either center is a back up same with right guard and right tackle. The guys playing might not be hurt but we certainly arent at full strength.  Bottom line is you cant take sacks, Carson was really struggling with sliding in the pocket and anticipating/feeling the pressure in the pocket. TH has very good pocket awareness and is elusive, hard to sack.

 

I do hope Howell comes in ready to be the guy next year.  He could literally take that spot and run with it, I would love to be in his position right now. 

[petey hodge]

35 minutes ago, The Sisko said:

 

 

now people are celebrating our Defense as the only reason we’re winning games and are even a SB team.

 

Remember when Jack Del Taco was the donkey earlier this season?

 

the North Remembers

 

 

 

 

 

[zCommander]

26 minutes ago, The Sisko said:

To your second point, I said he's not good enough to regularly beat elite offensive teams and I'll stand by that until dude proves me wrong. The last three games of the season will be telling. None of those teams have truly elite offenses, but the Forty Whiners are good on both sides of the ball, the Browns will at least have an elite sexual assaulter, 'er QB under center, and even if the Cowturds do rest a lot of their players in the last game, their offense is still nothing to sneeze at and their defense is one of the best in the Niffle right now. I've already agreed with your third point. As for the fourth, you're making the same mistake that many in this thread keep making. Wentz is who we thought he was, i.e. he's just not very good so he's a poor yardstick. Instead, let's compare Heine to decent, not elite, but decent QBs and see where he stands. Again, I don't hate the guy but I also just don't understand all the hype when this is literally the team right now...

 

Trust me I didn't make that mistake the FO is did as I said it numerous times in the offseason that Wentz was just a tad bit better than Taylor. I was beaten on the head by most here for saying that lol

 

You said to stretch the field and I said the coaches wanted that too and brought in Wentz for that. They could have just done the ZCommander plan. Start the season with TH and build the lines and get your QB in 2023. That is all that I wanted for this year. And look what is happening right now. Poor OL and Wentz is a non-factor. They could have just saved the money and spent on other positions. I get it they HAD to get a QB that could stretch the field. Wentz had that ability. I also believe the name change also factored into this decision as well. New name and newer QB to lead the team to the SB. Dan clearly said we had ourselves a real QB. Taylor wasn't real and was never going to be real for him. I would love it Taylor led team can go all the way to SB to see the smug on Dan's face. That would make my day. My personal gratification. But then again who cares. He is selling so there is that anyway. 

[JSSkinz]

14 hours ago, skins4ever28 said:

So maybe just let TH ride out, see how far he takes them, and then maybe he’s worth some trade after the season?

This is going to happen regardless of opinions because we're winning, I think after the 2nd Giants game we'll know if it was a good decision.

[Peregrine]

Aa lot of people that dont like the wins, but instead take the naive Ron Rivera approach of being deluded that the team is better than it is.  Thats what lead to him blowing up the Oline, and later blowing up the DB core both of which were massive mistakes.

 

A lot of wishing for past failed QBs, that somehow even though they couldnt win, magically the QB you hated then you would love now.  The insanity is real, and these "fans" deserve every disappointment they have had over past years.  

 

Man, imagine how good every QB would be if he didnt have to play in the actual games and just lived in your imaginary head or on paper.  But I have heard crazy rumors that you only get wins in the NFL for winning games...big if true.

[Zim489]

Im more concerned about figuring out the fix. I dont see any path to acquring one next year thats worthy of building around or a great one to drop in. Its more mediocre QBs that will be available. 

[Skinsinparadise]

If Mike White keeps playing well, wonder what the Jets do with him hitting FA

[SoCalSkins]

34 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

This year? or the year he was brought in as the covid-emergency QB and he played that year couple of games including the playoff game?

Right after Fitzmagic water slide hip injury was aggravated on the field. 

[TheBlueIndian]

9 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Aa lot of people that dont like the wins, but instead take the naive Ron Rivera approach of being deluded that the team is better than it is.  Thats what lead to him blowing up the Oline, and later blowing up the DB core both of which were massive mistakes.

 

A lot of wishing for past failed QBs, that somehow even though they couldnt win, magically the QB you hated then you would love now.  The insanity is real, and these "fans" deserve every disappointment they have had over past years.  

 

Man, imagine how good every QB would be if he didnt have to play in the actual games and just lived in your imaginary head or on paper.  But I have heard crazy rumors that you only get wins in the NFL for winning games...big if true.

OK - sounds good man !

 

Enjoy the ride

[The Sisko]

 

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

Here's another comparison - Doug Flutie. These are the stats from his 1999 season. 

 

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	Sk%	NY/A	ANY/A	4QC	GWD
7	Doug Flutie	37	QB	15	15	10-5-0	264	478	55.2	3171	19	4.0	16	3.3	54	6.6	5.9	12.0	211.4	75.1		26	176	5.2	5.94	5.27	2	2

157 / 478 = 32.8% First Downs

 

Compare that to Heinicke 

2021	28	WAS	QB	4	16	15	7-8-0	321	494	65.0	3419	20	4.0	15	3.0	167	73	6.9	6.4	10.7	213.7	85.9	39.9	38	278	7.1	5.90	5.39	3	4	11
2022	29	WAS	QB	4	6	6	5-1-0	104	171	60.8	1169	7	4.1	5	2.9	60	49	6.8	6.3	11.2	194.8	82.7	47.0	9	72	5.0	6.09	5.62	1	1

 

Remember people talking about not knowing why he was winning, and him keeping plays alive and them trying to replace him with Rob Johnson, etc. Similar story. But we can see similarities in the guys. TD%, Int%, YPG, Sack%, 1D%, etc. 

Flutie and the Hasselbeck comparisons are a stretch at best. The NFL is an entirely different league now. I'm no stats genius, but a cursory glance at some rough numbers tell the tale. ESPN stats only go back to 2004, which should tell you something, but in 2004, with a 16 game season, there were a grand total of 5 QBs with 4K or more yards. Extrapolating from his current stats, based on yardage alone, Heine would have been the 14th best QB in 2004. Interestingly, that would have placed him just above Hasselbeck. "See, I told ya so!!" No. The difference is Hasselbeck was a middling QB with those numbers. This is the top 15 from last season.

 

Extrapolating to 17 games, Heinie will be in the 16 - 20 range. QBR wasn't a thing in 2004,but looking at QB rating is instructive as well. in 2004, only about half of the top 15 QBs had a QB rating of 90 or higher. Last year, all of the top 15 did except the ghost of Roethlisberger. So no, Heine isn't the worst QB in the league which I've never said. He's somewhere in the mediocre middle. Given his physical limitations, I'd say he's a big time overachiever.

 

1 hour ago, No Nonsense said:

The Commanders are caught between a rock and a hard place. They absolutely can’t take Taylor out because they’re winning, even though they’re winning despite him. Then there’s Wentz, who probably still gives us the best shot at winning anything significant this year. 

You're right that Wentz would give us the best shot at winning something significant - a top 5 draft pick.

[zCommander]

11 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Right after Fitzmagic water slide hip injury was aggravated on the field. 

 

So you saying to extended something that was already extended in February of that year 

By the way, I wanted Taylor to start before we got Fitzmagic. I liked how he played in the playoff game and wanted more of that. 

 

In another words get off my ****ing porch you late Taylor bloomer!

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by zCommander