The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Koolblue13]

17 hours ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Can we ever have a QB thread that’s worth a ****? 
 

I had hopes for this one. Not really, but can’t we at least keep the salary cap stuff and the “he’s not very good” stuff separate? When those elements collide, it just puts a migraine on top of the existing **** pile. 

10 pages of walls of text, because one posters imaginary Winston scenario.

[SkinsFTW]

I mean, Sean Payton retired after 1/2 a season of Winston at QB. Then the team that he's been on for 2 years paid him less than Taylor Heineke and apparently nobody had a better offer, but yeah that's the guy RR should have gone after. 

[Warhead36]

16 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

I mean, Sean Payton retired after 1/2 a season of Winston at QB. Then the team that he's been on for 2 years paid him less than Taylor Heineke and apparently nobody had a better offer, but yeah that's the guy RR should have gone after. 

Yeah for real. Winston stinks.

[HigSkin]

Maybe this will help get this thread on track.  LOL

 

 

Here's one thing we know about Carson Wentz as he prepares to lead the Washington Commanders' offense in 2022: he's never going to shy away from being aggressive.

 

Not that it's been a bad choice for the quarterback as he enters his seventh season. Wentz was the seventh-best deep passer in the NFL last year, beating out Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers last season, according to Next Gen Stats. 

That ability to stretch the field is what Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner hope Wentz can inject into the Commanders' offense. It's a wrinkle that Washington sorely lacked in 2021, although that doesn't mean Wentz will be chucking bombs every play.

 

It's a balancing act that Wentz is learning to master.

 

"I'm always trying to learn and kind of find that fine line of...when to be aggressive, when to check it down," Wentz told reporters on Wednesday. "That's always something you're trying to learn."

 

Wentz's performance in making deep passes wasn't just one of the best in the NFL; it was one of the best in his career. He had a deep ball completion percentage of 43.4%, which was fourth among the 10 best deep passers, per Next Gen Stats.

Most of his criticism, however, came from his check downs and intermediate passes, and it's a fact that Wentz has not shied away from.

 

"There's plenty of times you get locked in on somebody and you're like, 'Shoot, I missed that one,' or, 'I forced that one,'" Wentz said. "And that's why I think throughout your career, you're always trying to learn."

 

Turner has heard about Wentz's proclivity to pass up shorter plays for shots downfield, but he also believes that all quarterbacks deal with on some level. They're all competitive, he said, and they feel like they can make the big plays.

 

"Whether you can or not, that really isn't important," Turner said. "It's just about making the right decision over and over again and not putting us in a tough situation."

 

 

Learning to do that starts with the play call and knowing what the offense is trying to accomplish on each play. Some plays offer the chance to move down the field with a chunk of yardage; others are meant to be screens, runs or quick passes.

 

That's why it's important, Wentz said, to take what's covered in film sessions and bring it to the field.

 

"You're not always trying to hit the home run," Wentz said. "Hopefully those small ones go for home runs, but you're trying to just ultimately win the game and there's a little chess match in there over and over and over throughout the game. And that's part of playing this position and understanding, when's the right time to strike."

 

The good news is that Wentz is making strides in learning the Commanders' system. He talks to his teammates in the huddle about certain aspects of each play, and he carries a high level of confidence in communicating the plays.

 

"You watch some of the confidence in which he steps into the huddle and calls the plays," Rivera said. "And I think is really good because his teammates will feed off of that confidence in the way he handles the huddle situations."

 

Turner wants Wentz to understand there's a time and place to take shots downfield, but also wants the quarterback to be himself. Wentz can add another dimension to Washington's offense, and the coaches believe he can help them take the unit forward.

 

 

For what it's worth, Wentz has been enthusiastic about learning Turner's philosophies, because they're both focused on the same thing: winning.

 

"I'm going to always be aggressive," Wentz said, "but there's always a fine line that I'm always trying to learn and navigate and just ultimately help get our team in the end zone."

[FootballZombie]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Now, the statement "you have to assume the contract is executed as is" might, at first, seem like it flies in the face of the Brown contract, where I said Brown will NEVER get the last year of his deal because it's completely bloated.  

 

But it's really not.  My assumption in looking at the Brown contract is it's a 3 year extension which pays him through 2025.  Signing bonus of $23M, $40M guaranteed at signing. $57M becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2023 league year.  And my assumption is he is a FA with an $8M cap hit for 2026.  At an absolute minimum, Brown will cost $40M against the Eagles cap, and most likely, at a minimum, he will count $57M against the cap because the rest becomes fully guaranteed next season.  That's the way I look at Brown's contract.  

 

I look at Winston's contract as a 2 year deal which at a minimum will cost $15.2M against the cap. My read is they either cut him before the 2023 league year starts, or he's on the roster for 2023.  I doubt they have him on the roster at the beginning of the 2023 league year and then cut him before the 2023 season.  So, under that scenario, at minimum, he counts $15.2M against the cap for one year, or $28M against the cap if he's on the team for 2 years.

 

I cannot predict the future and I cannot tell if the Saints will restructure/extend Winston after 2022 or 2023.  I can't tell you how well he will play, I can't tell you if they will be in a position to draft another QB, or anything like that.  I do not have a DeLorean Time Machine in my garage.  (I wish I did.)  So, all I can tell you is what Winston's contract is going to cost the Saints overall as of right now.  I freely acknowledge if he plays well, they might extend him, which will change the parameters of the deal.  I also freely acknowledge he might stink like the south end of a north bound skunk, where they will cut him after this season. And I guess the third possibility is they do nothing and he finishes out his current deal. I don't know which of those scenarios will play out.  So since I don't know which will play out, all I can go on is the current contract.

 

Now IF you want to take the position, which I think you do, that you don't know what's going to happen in the future, so all you can do is judge the current year, while I completely disagree (as does every single person I've ever heard speak on the subject), that's fine.  But what you're doing is ignoring the KNOWN future implications of the contract.  Winston CANNOT count less than $15.2M against the Saints cap.  Period.  You keep saying "spending a finite amount of assets."  Well, that minimum of $15.2 is spent.  Period.  It might not be spent THIS year, but it IS spent. 

 

How am I ignoring anything here? Have I not pointed out on multiple occasions that even in the worst case scenario where Winston is simply cut, he costs millions less then Wentz by comparison? Does Winston costing 15 Million across two years if cut make my claim of him costing his team 4 Million this season incorrect? Not at all. I have more than qualified my statement that Winston is both making that small amount this season as well as making a significantly smaller amount over several years in comparison with our QB. When questioned, I have made it clear that he does not have to see the entirety of the financials in his contract.

 

Your take on Brown's deal further emphasizes the disparity of your argument. Even in your description you are taking liberties by ending his deal before its conclusion. You measured the deal with absolute certainty that it would “NEVER” reach its ultimate conclusion. It does not matter if you feel some contracts are bloated, you are still choosing to view some contracts differently than written and others as hard gospel.

 

Be it anyone's deal, you can't say with certainty how his final contract structure will look, and when it comes to QBs that holds even more weight. The only absolute certainty we have is what he is costing his team this year. I have not said he won't continue to cost his team in the future and I have pointed that distinction out myself when I have addressed the different outcome possibilities alongside that fact in the past. Yes cap space is a finite resource, and yes even if spread across years one player is costing considerably less of it. That is simply un-debateable. Unless we want to start pretending 28 and 15 are similar numbers, nothing I have said does not hold up.

 

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

And you keep saying I'm making wild hypothetical posts in the Terry thread.  I really haven't posted much in the thread at all.  I went back and looked back through May at what I have posted:

 

I don't think I used the word “wild”, or any oddly negative descriptors of the practice. I'm just saying your doing a lot of the things your claiming you don't like or do. For someone who claims to not play the hypothetical game, you have been calling for fitting terry w/ identical contracts from other players. What is that if not a hypothetical practice. That is not a far step from what we have been doing here. Looking at a situation, and imagining a possibility that is not reality. We all do it, its not a bad thing.

 

Personally, I see value in the exercises so I do not see it in the off putting terms you have utilized. Just thought it was weird when you used phrases such as “detached from reality” and “useless” to describe the action. I just pointed out that you have been doing similar things in other threads so you must either believe we are both detached from reality (I doubt it) or you don't actually feel its a useless task after all. Considering how much digital ink has been spilled on the subject my money is on the latter.

 

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Jericho]

2 hours ago, SkinsFTW said:

I mean, Sean Payton retired after 1/2 a season of Winston at QB. Then the team that he's been on for 2 years paid him less than Taylor Heineke and apparently nobody had a better offer, but yeah that's the guy RR should have gone after. 

 

Not just that, but while Winston threw for 5000+ yards in 2019, his own team decided he wasn't worth it. They could have re-signed him and didn't. And instead signed a 43 year old QB. And yeah, it was Tom Brady. But we can't sit here and ignore the fact that signing ANY 43 year old player is risky. Tampa could have had a 26 year old Winston coming off a 5000 yard campaign. And they said no, we'll take the old guy who might or might not have a year or two left in him (and remember, Brady was coming off a down year in New England). And after Tampa passed, then the whole league said no. Winston could not find a starting job anywhere. So he signed in New Orleans to back up Brees. He did that for a year and then became a free agent again and still really couldn't find a starting job. He ended up back in New Orleans competing with Taysom Hill, a guy who can't throw the ball. He did win that "competition", but then became a free agent once again. And couldn't find anything more than middling QB money back in New Orleans. The same level of money guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton get. I think we see how the league values Winston. Not just one team, but the entire league.

 

Wentz was not a free agent during the last few years, but was traded twice. Once for a first rounder and a third-round pick. And then again for two day two picks (probably will end up a second-round pick and a third-round pick). Hell, Sam Darnold got traded for three picks, including a second- and fourth-rounder. Even Nick Foles went for a fourth-round pick. Washington may have misvalued Wentz. And maybe the Colts did too. But I don't think the whole league misvalued Winston three straight offseasons. We basically know what Winston is worth. And no one seems him as a solution. So I don't really get the Winston/Wentz comparisons.

[FootballZombie]

Eh, its somethin' to talk about, but if people think its gumming up the pipes that bad, I'll respond to future VOR manuscripts via the messaging system, then it wont clog up this thread.

 

I think it was more entertaining then all the Kirk talk a minute ago tho.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

Eh, its somethin' to talk about, but if people think its gumming up the pipes that bad, I'll respond to future VOR manuscripts via the messaging system, then it wont clog up this thread.

 

I think it was more entertaining then all the Kirk talk a minute ago tho.

I’m done.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Sadly, I don't have any updates about Winston's camp.😀    But otherwise...

 

Catching up with a Galdi podcast, talking about Next Generation Stats as for Wentz as a deep thrower last season -- great numbers and as Galdi said elite level deep throwing.

 

Galdi went on to say since 2018 (post the "evil" Kirk Cousins leaving), this team has been at almost the bottom of the league every year as far as explosive plays from the QB.

 

So this should be night and say with arguably the best deep thrower this team has had since 2012 RG3.  

 

I like listening to Logan Paulsen on this because he didn't like the trade much at the time and had concerns about Wentz.  I know @Voice_of_Reason suggests you might be getting some Larry Michael type vibes from him because he works for the team.  I get the point.  But I disagree.  Paulsen didn't love the trade while he was still working for the team.  He's been critical of some players.   I like the rare media or even fan who aren't so locked into their stances where they aren't open to change their mind and Paulsen to me fits that.

 

Heck Cooley used to work for the team and rip dudes all the time which I recall bothered the heck out of some posters here -- which I found ironic because Larry Michael wasn't liked here in part because of his homerism but it was hard to miss that some didn't like Cooley in part because he wasn't enough of a homer.  Paulsen to me threads the needle pretty well between those two camps.  I don't always agree with him but I'll give him that he's at all the practices and puts thought into his positions.

 

In short, Palusen has been impressed with how quickly Wentz seems to be mastering the offense and he said it actually looks like a professional offense alluding to in recent years not as much so.  But he's been impressed with what he's seen.

 

He's also high on the talent of this TE group.  He thinks they might take some time because there is a lot of raw talent but they need polish but said he's seen his share of TE rooms and this one from a size-athleticism standpoint really jumps out -- highlighting Turner (among other things he said he practices 100 miles an hour and suggested he has it as far as intangibles), Hodges and A. Rogers.  Paulsen last year was high on Bates really early on before it became cool.  Now @Koolblue13 has a shrine to Bates.  😀  So I'll trust Paulsen especially as to the TEs.

 

Listening to all that I have about Wentz including the mentions of them stretching the field and going deep -- it feels a little like Stafford and the Rams last year.  I don't think Wentz is as good as Stafford but at his best he could be.  Wentz like Stafford has a rocket of an arm and is sneaky mobile for a dude their size.  Stafford with the better reputation for clutch play but otherwise I see some similarities.   Really talented.  Can be at times a roller coaster.  If you let them loose they will throw picks but also make big plays. 

 

 Stafford played like a top 10 QB last year with better weapons and a better system for him.  Hopefully we have similar luck with Wentz. 

 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[TradeTheBeal!]

Oh no.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I like listening to Logan Paulsen on this because he didn't like the trade much at the time and had concerns about Wentz.  I know @Voice_of_Reason suggests you might be getting some Larry Michael type vibes from him because he works for the team.  I get the point.  But I disagree.  Paulsen didn't love the trade while he was still working for the team.  He's been critical of some players.   I like the rare media or even fan who aren't so locked into their stances where they aren't open to change their mind and Paulsen to me fits that.

I don't think I ever suggested that.  I think he's very good, and critical when he needs to be.  I think I more suggested the opposite, that while he works for the team, he's still pretty balanced.  I don't think he rips players quite the way Cooley did, so maybe he's a little more balanced, and I think he knows who pays him and gives him access, so I don't think he's going to go crazy saying a player completely stinks.  But he is absolutely critical when it calls to be critical, and I respect that.  

 

At least, that was my intension.  Or, to qualify ever further, that's what I recall my position being.  Maybe it's changed and I don't remember. 

 

But I like Logan.  I definitely NEVER have gotten Larry Michael (no S, just Larry Michael) vibes from him, and I hope I didn't insinuate that previously.  If I did, it was in error.  

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don't think I ever suggested that.  I think he's very good, and critical when he needs to be.  I think I more suggested the opposite, that while he works for the team, he's still pretty balanced.  I don't think he rips players quite the way Cooley did, so maybe he's a little more balanced, and I think he knows who pays him and gives him access, so I don't think he's going to go crazy saying a player completely stinks.  But he is absolutely critical when it calls to be critical, and I respect that.  

 

At least, that was my intension.  Or, to qualify ever further, that's what I recall my position being.  Maybe it's changed and I don't remember. 

 

But I like Logan.  I definitely NEVER have gotten Larry Michael (no S, just Larry Michael) vibes from him, and I hope I didn't insinuate that previously.  If I did, it was in error.  

 

You didn't say Larry Michael that was my reference for homerism as for someone who is an employee from the team.  But I've brought up Paulsen multiple times in posts and you've multiple times posted to pump the brakes because Paulsen works for the team so he might not be objective.  So considering you've done it more than once and you did in posts that weren't even directed to you -- I gathered you felt passionately about having a disclaimer on Paulsen's takes.    So i was simply preempting you this time. 😀

 

By the way speaking of podcasts, your boy was on Sheehan's podcast today, Jay Gruden. 😀  He was pretty entertaining.  He doubled down again about liking Kirk (not that I care but some here have suggested he didn't) but what was interesting was he talked about Wentz.    He's a fan of him pre-injury in Philly.  Post injury he sees him more of a wildcard.  He's defintetly in the QB or bust mode as far as winning in the league.  He was self effacing as usual but also a little more snippy than usual with an undertone of bitterness which is different from some of his other appearances.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You didn't say Larry Michael that was my reference for homerism as for someone who is an employee from the team.  But I've brought up Paulsen multiple times in posts and you've multiple times posted to pump the brakes because Paulsen works for the team so he might not be objective.  So considering you've done it more than once and you did in posts that weren't even directed to you -- I gathered you felt passionately about having a disclaimer on Paulsen's takes.    So i was simply preempting you this time. 😀

Eh, well, then I take that back.  I do think he's objective.  Maybe it's coming off stronger than intended.  I think he curbs criticism a bit more than he did before he got the gig with the team, but I still think he's objective. He's not a cheerleader.  If he hated something, I think he'd say so, but I do think he'd couch it more as a "constructive criticism."  I definitely do NOT think he would make something up, or obfuscate the facts, which Michael did every single day of his tenure with the team. 

 

I will definitively say I do not feel passionately about Logan Paulsen, or his take, in any way.   

 

 

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

By the way speaking of podcasts, your boy was on Sheehan's podcast today, Jay Gruden. 😀  He was pretty entertaining.  He doubled down again about liking Kirk (not that I care but some here have suggested he didn't) but what was interesting was he talked about Wentz.    He's a fan of him pre-injury in Philly.  Post injury he sees him more of a wildcard.  He's defintetly in the QB or bust mode as far as winning in the league.  He was self effacing as usual but also a little more snippy than usual with an undertone of bitterness which is different from some of his other appearances.

I saw it pop up that he was on Sheehan.  I haven't listened to it yet.

 

I thought he was migrating to a bit snippy on the last podcast when he said that the NFL and media only wanted younger folks. It was a bit of a throw-away line.  But it was pretty meaningful.  

 

As far as I know (and granted, I don't follow Jay Gruden's media appearances at all), the only person he really talks to in the market is Sheehan.  

 

I get the feeling he is basically doing nothing except playing Golf, and he's finally irritated he isn't getting a nibble at anything.  And while I think his last name might have helped him at one point of his career, it certainly is NOT helping him now.  And I could see how that would me massively irritating as well.

 

I will listen.  I do find him somewhat entertaining.  As long as he's not calling first down runs for 0 yards 80% of the time for my team, he's tolerable at worst.  

 

As far as his takes on Wentz, I mean, no duh, everybody would be a fan of 2017/2018 Wentz.  That's not a hot take. 

 

It's somewhat unfortunate, but I think there was a perfect storm in 2020 for Wentz: they drafted Hurts and the entire team got hurt, and he tried to be superman and failed.  And then got benched.  

 

Dude was 27/28 years old.  I remember being an immature ass hat at times when I was that age. I can imagine it really screwed with his mind.  And then he was shipped off to Indy.

 

I wonder if it was just going to take some time to get his mind right and confidence back.  Some additional maturity to go along with it.

 

There was a time in my early 30's when I was running a project and it went HORRIBLY bad, our contract was terminated, and we were sent packing. Was it entirely my fault?  No.  Was it at least partially my fault?  Yeah, it was.  Should I have known better?  I would say maybe, but I'd never been in that position before. I wasn't fired, but damn if it didn't shake my confidence for a while.  I ended up taking on a project literally NOBODY else would touch, and turned it around, and that's how I got my confidence back. But it took a solid 1.5 years.  And I was probably 5-7 years older than Carson.  So I could see how the events of 2020 in Philly could have just totally screwed with his head.  

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

I will definitively say I do not feel passionately about Logan Paulsen, or his take, in any way.   

 

 

OK. noted. 😀

 

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

I thought he was migrating to a bit snippy on the last podcast when he said that the NFL and media only wanted younger folks. It was a bit of a throw-away line.  But it was pretty meaningful.  

 

As far as I know (and granted, I don't follow Jay Gruden's media appearances at all), the only person he really talks to in the market is Sheehan.  

 

I get the feeling he is basically doing nothing except playing Golf, and he's finally irritated he isn't getting a nibble at anything.  And while I think his last name might have helped him at one point of his career, it certainly is NOT helping him now.  And I could see how that would me massively irritating as well.

 

I will listen.  I do find him somewhat entertaining.  As long as he's not calling first down runs for 0 yards 80% of the time for my team, he's tolerable at worst.  

 

 

Jay's appeared on other podcasts.  He's done Standig if I recall twice.  i know some other podcast too, forgetting whom.

 

Yeah I can tell he doesn't love that the Gruden name has gone from being a help to a hindrance but that didn't come up in this podcast. 

 

He didn't flat out say it, he was diplomatic but you can tell that he believes that he was scapegoated for the bad culture -- and Ron played up as the solution to fix it and he seemed to be implying big boy lets see you now win after all the talk about how things have changed for the better since he left.  But again he was polite, he danced around the point but that was my takeaway. 

 

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

As far as his takes on Wentz, I mean, no duh, everybody would be a fan of 2017/2018 Wentz.  That's not a hot take. 

 

 

 

Agree but he was oddly murky on Wentz.  He typically takes a stand on QBs.  Thinks really highly of Carr for example.  Doesn't think much of Trubisky.  He doesn't straddle the fence much but seem to be doing it on Wentz.  Not that it matters.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Will see.  At least this season isn't boring when it comes to storylines

 

 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

On 6/9/2022 at 4:08 PM, mistertim said:

Can I just say that I think it's absolutely hilarious that Jameis Winston is the QB hill someone is choosing to die on? And I thought the Hive was weird.

he’s no Sam Howell

[Skinsinparadise]

17 hours ago, KDawg said:

he’s no Sam Howell

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[slinky]

On 6/10/2022 at 12:55 PM, HigSkin said:

"For what it's worth, Wentz has been enthusiastic about learning Turner's philosophies, because they're both focused on the same thing: winning."

 

So there are teams whose philosophies is losing? 

[SkinsFTW]

5 hours ago, slinky said:

 

So there are teams whose philosophies is losing? 

 

Maybe he meant a different kind of winning!

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by SkinsFTW

[FootballZombie]

This org has always been about winning. It was just a matter of where.

[Mrshadow008]

What a joke of a list. Irsay really has done a hell of job selling the narrative about Wentz. And the media has ate it up 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Mrshadow008 said:

What a joke of a list. Irsay really has done a hell of job selling the narrative about Wentz. And the media has ate it up 

Agree. List is bad.

 

Howell not ahead of Herbert is wild.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

1 hour ago, Mrshadow008 said:

What a joke of a list. Irsay really has done a hell of job selling the narrative about Wentz. And the media has ate it up 

More like Crack Prescott, amirite?!?