The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[MartinC]

7 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Funny enough, your post actually gives me some pause.  I mean, I’m right there with you in that I didn’t (and still don’t) think Chicago trades down.  With that said, if I was in their shoes and had two (or 3) qbs rated close to each other, and/or if the room is divided on the pick, I’d have to consider a trade down.  Given the crapshoot nature of the draft, particularly with qbs, adding a couple 1st round picks (or whatever) might be a really smart hedge.

 

Of course that’s easy for me to say.  

If they have Maye or Daniel’s rates higher than Williams and they know we really want Williams sure a trade could happen. It’s not completely impossible - but they don’t have any guarantee which QB we will take if we trade up. This is a franchise altering pick, and a career defining pick for the GM and HC. You stay at #1 and pick the QB you really want - really long odds on anything else happening.

 

Same logic with us at #2.

[mistertim]

19 minutes ago, MartinC said:

If they have Maye or Daniel’s rates higher than Williams and they know we really want Williams sure a trade could happen. It’s not completely impossible - but they don’t have any guarantee which QB we will take if we trade up. This is a franchise altering pick, and a career defining pick for the GM and HC. You stay at #1 and pick the QB you really want - really long odds on anything else happening.

 

Same logic with us at #2.

 

Yeah playing it risky with such a franchise altering pick is ludicrous.

 

Bears: "HEHEHE We like Maye much more than Williams. Let's get Washington to give us an extra pick to move up and take Williams and we still get our guy too!"

 

Washington: "We select Drake Maye"

 

Bears: "****"

[Warhead36]

You don’t eff around with blue chip QBs. 

[skinny21]

29 minutes ago, MartinC said:

If they have Maye or Daniel’s rates higher than Williams and they know we really want Williams sure a trade could happen. It’s not completely impossible - but they don’t have any guarantee which QB we will take if we trade up. This is a franchise altering pick, and a career defining pick for the GM and HC. You stay at #1 and pick the QB you really want - really long odds on anything else happening.

 

Same logic with us at #2.

You hit on the main point that I didn’t initially spell out.  If it’s a career defining pick, it seems to me adding high end picks softens the blow if you wind up wrong.  And there’s a scarily decent chance they’re wrong whichever route they go.

Again though, my hypothetical only applies if they have the prospects rated really close to each other.  In other words, they wouldn’t need a guarantee of which qb was traded up for.

 

Almost certainly wasting my time posting on the issue because I agree with you that’s it’s basically a lock CHI takes Williams (or at the very least stays put at 1)… just wanted to clarify my point a bit.

8 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah playing it risky with such a franchise altering pick is ludicrous.

 

Bears: "HEHEHE We like Maye much more than Williams. Let's get Washington to give us an extra pick to move up and take Williams and we still get our guy too!"

 

Washington: "We select Drake Maye"

 

Bears: "****"

Your scenario is definitely ludicrous lol.  Are people suggesting that?  I guess maybe I saw something akin to it mentioned a while back regarding us trading with NE?

[Est.1974]

Let’s not forget Kingsbury interviewed with the Bears. I wonder what QB talk took place there.

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

 

Your scenario is definitely ludicrous lol.  Are people suggesting that?  I guess maybe I saw something akin to it mentioned a while back regarding us trading with NE?

 

Did I say I thought that was likely? No. I think it's very unlikely. Chicago will almost certainly pick Williams. The point is that getting cute and playing FAFO with the #1 overall pick when it's a franchise defining QB is idiotic because you don't fully know what other teams will do.

 

You stay there and make your pick. Which is exactly what the Bears will do.

[mac8887]

12 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Actually this one IMO is wildly incorrect. Arm strength rarely improves much from college to the NFL. The majority of pure arm strength is just inherent in the person and is genetic. It's the way their body is built and the kind of torque they can generate. Sure, you can do some things to try and maximize and get to your natural ceiling, but your natural ceiling is still going to be your ceiling and by the time you're done with college ball, you're probably almost there anyway.

 

It's sort of like a vertical leap. Someone who has a natural 30 inch vertical can be trained up to get it to 31 or 32 inches, but they'll never be a 40 inch vertical guy.

 

The idea that a guy is going to come into the NFL and suddenly improve his arm strength in any meaningful way with some magical strength program is a pipe dream.

I’d beg to differ, I watched Trevor Bauer do velocity trading over the course of a year to try to get his fastball to 100mph. He was able to eventually raise it from a consistent 92-93 mph to about 97-98 in just 1 year. This he did over the course of a year on the momentum YouTube channel. This is a guy in his 30s that is already throwing a ball harder than 99.9% of the worlds population, and even though he had been training for 10 years professionally, he was still able to increase his velocity that much.

 

In McCarthys case, he is only 21 years old, and has the height and the frame to comfortably add some muscle, not only this, he isn’t even a pro athlete yet. I see know reason to think he couldn’t improve his arm strength, especially with the best coaches and trainers in the world being paid to help him do so. I imagine every qb can until probably sometime after the age of 30 when their body starts to degrade, but a young 21 year old that will definitely put on some muscle over the next 2 or 3 years is a prime candidate to increase arm strength. But even if he doesn’t it doesn’t matter, the dude still has a great arm in the pocket and on the move, maybe not as strong as Maye, but definitely strong enough to make every throw.

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I’d beg to differ, I watched Trevor Bauer do velocity trading over the course of a year to try to get his fastball to 100mph. He was able to eventually raise it from a consistent 92-93 mph to about 97-98 in just 1 year. This he did over the course of a year on the momentum YouTube channel. This is a guy in his 30s that is already throwing a ball harder than 99.9% of the worlds population, and even though he had been training for 10 years professionally, he was still able to increase his velocity that much.

 

In McCarthys case, he is only 21 years old, and has the height and the frame to comfortably add some muscle, not only this, he isn’t even a pro athlete yet. I see know reason to think he couldn’t improve his arm strength, especially with the best coaches and trainers in the world being paid to help him do so. I imagine every qb can until probably sometime after the age of 30 when their body starts to degrade, but a young 21 year old that will definitely put on some muscle over the next 2 or 3 years is a prime candidate to increase arm strength. But even if he doesn’t it doesn’t matter, the dude still has a great arm in the pocket and on the move, maybe not as strong as Maye, but definitely strong enough to make every throw.

 

The reason to believe he couldn't improve his arm strength in a meaningful way from college to the NFL is because it doesn't really happen. A guy may add a tiny amount of mustard to his throws by tweaking his mechanics, but in the vast majority of cases that doesn't happen at all and the gun a QB had in college is the same gun he has in the NFL.

 

Again, it doesn't have to do with putting on muscle really. It's biomechanics and body build that leads to the amount of natural torque a person can generate. Which is mostly genetic. Guys with huge arms have had huge arms since they were young.

 

So I'm not going to assume that McCarthy is some unicorn who will somehow do something that no other QB has really done by using some magical training regimen that nobody else has access to. 

[clskinsfan]

19 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I watched Trevor Bauer do velocity trading over the course of a year to try to get his fastball to 100mph

A baseball weighs 5 ounces. A Football weighs 15 ounces and requires a spread hand to throw it. You arent going to be adding a lot of velocity over what you are seeing from these guys right now. A mph or 2? Maybe.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

Just internet speculation. But worth posting nonetheless.

 

And given that we have #2 and the Bears have #1, a trade well before draft day is more likely than the alternative (a draft-day trade or a trade within a few days of the draft). I would suspect a trade for the #1 pick, from the #2 pick, would materialize quickly and fairly soon, potentially. So we'll find out how much this smoke leads to a fire, particularly at the combine where a lot of these discussions tend to heat up.

Edited February 27 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Conn]

No there isn’t. A Bears blog wants there to be though. 

[redskinss]

I'm curious about something, not to say it's never happened but I can't recall so I'm wondering if anybody can present an example of a team needing a quarterback, having a pick high enough to get one of the top coveted quarterbacks in the draft and instead trading back and acquiring a quarterback later in the draft.

 

Has that ever happened?

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

14 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I’d beg to differ, I watched Trevor Bauer do velocity trading over the course of a year to try to get his fastball to 100mph. He was able to eventually raise it from a consistent 92-93 mph to about 97-98 in just 1 year. This he did over the course of a year on the momentum YouTube channel. This is a guy in his 30s that is already throwing a ball harder than 99.9% of the worlds population, and even though he had been training for 10 years professionally, he was still able to increase his velocity that much.

 

In McCarthys case, he is only 21 years old, and has the height and the frame to comfortably add some muscle, not only this, he isn’t even a pro athlete yet. I see know reason to think he couldn’t improve his arm strength, especially with the best coaches and trainers in the world being paid to help him do so. I imagine every qb can until probably sometime after the age of 30 when their body starts to degrade, but a young 21 year old that will definitely put on some muscle over the next 2 or 3 years is a prime candidate to increase arm strength. But even if he doesn’t it doesn’t matter, the dude still has a great arm in the pocket and on the move, maybe not as strong as Maye, but definitely strong enough to make every throw.

 

I don't believe the Bauer stuff is true, he pitched in the NPB this past year but wasn't on the list of top velocities. The list cuts off right above Bauer's normal fastball velo. So whatever was in that vid you watched, he didn't actually use it in a real game.

 

He probably spider tacked his hands up like crazy for that video.

 

As for throwing a football, a lot of QB's can work on core muscles and techniques to increase power when planting and throwing on deep shots. But the tight window throws where you've gotta drive it quickly. What you see in college is what they've got in the NFL. That aspect doesn't improve.

[mistertim]

   I remember when there was plenty of "chatter" about the Colts taking RG3 over Luck. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

7 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I'm curious about something, not to say it's never happened but I can't recall so I'm wondering if anybody can present an example of a team needing a quarterback, having a pick high enough to get one of the top coveted quarterbacks in the draft and instead trading back and acquiring a quarterback later in the draft.

 

Has that ever happened?

 

 

 

I can't think of any off the top of my head, and I think it's because that move is "getting cute" ... you risk losing your guy if you have a guy identified. The only way I can see it making sense for us is if this front office just loves Spencer Rattler (or someone like him) and feels really good about getting him in the 2nd round. But even then, who is to say the Vikings or the Broncos don't love him, and "overdraft" him ... leaving you without your guy? It's just risky, and your back up plan has to involve NOT getting your guy. Interestingly, in our case, at least we have Howell.

 

I discussed this earlier in the off-season but IF, big IF, this front office thinks Howell could be the guy, and they like someone in the draft that could be had in R2 or R3, then a trade-down and draft haul makes sense. If you DON'T get your guy, you still have Howell. But this scenario requires that 1) we really like Howell, 2) we really like someone later that we can pair with Howell to compete, and 3) not loving any of the Top 3 guys, 4) having an offer on the table to make a trade-down worth it, 5) some serious balls as this strategy could blow up in their face very easily.

 

*The caveat to this is at least you'll have a boat load of picks to build the team up around Howell/TBD rookie QB. But as many have pointed out, if you miss out on the next Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow and end up settling for average QB play, but you have a stacked team around said QB, you're unlikely to be drafting anywhere in the Top 3/5 to get the blue-chip QB if that ends up being the missing piece. Peters has had success on teams with late-round QBs (Brady/Pats, Purdy/49ers), so there's certainly a chance that if anyone is going to go that route, it could be him. I guess we'll see.

Edited February 27 by JamesMadisonSkins

[CommanderInTheRye]

Daniel Jeremiah released his pre-combine top 50 overall player list.

 

Focusing on quarterbacks he has 6 in the top 50.

 

Caleb is first overall with Maye 5th and Jayden Daniels 6th.

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 27 by CommanderInTheRye

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

7 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I'm curious about something, not to say it's never happened but I can't recall so I'm wondering if anybody can present an example of a team needing a quarterback, having a pick high enough to get one of the top coveted quarterbacks in the draft and instead trading back and acquiring a quarterback later in the draft.

 

Has that ever happened?

 

 

 

Not that I can think of. 2008 was a bad year all in all, but it wasn't thought of as a good QB draft class.

 

Ravens traded back from Top 10 to the mid-20's, then traded from the mid-20's to the late teens to grab Joe Flacco.

 

But there were no elite QB prospects. The best was Matt Ryan who went 3rd. A LT and DE went 1 and 2.

[redskinss]

3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

I can't think of any off the top of my head, and I think it's because that move is "getting cute" ... you risk losing your guy if you have a guy identified. The only way I can see it making sense for us is if this front office just loves Spencer Rattler (or someone like him) and feels really good about getting him in the 2nd round. But even then, who is to say the Vikings or the Broncos don't love him, and "overdraft" him ... leaving you without your guy? It's just risky, and your back up plan has to involve NOT getting your guy. Interestingly, in our case, at least we have Howell.

 

I discussed this earlier in the off-season but IF, big IF, this front office thinks Howell could be the guy, and they like someone in the draft that could be had in R2 or R3, then a trade-down and draft haul makes sense. If you DON'T get your guy, you still have Howell. But this scenario requires that 1) we really like Howell, 2) we really like someone later that we can pair with Howell to compete, and 3) not loving any of the Top 3 guys, 4) having an offer on the table to make a trade-down worth it, 5) some serious balls as this strategy could blow up in their face very easily.

 

I agree completely.

My curiosity is for the people who want the team do that.

 

If we can't site at least a few examples of it even happening much less it being successful then why bother even debating it?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

I agree completely.

My curiosity is for the people who want the team do that.

 

If we can't site at least a few examples of it even happening much less it being successful then why bother even debating it?

 

I don't think a trade-down would be for anyone expected to go in R1. Because that plan has too much risk. You'd just have to be happy with Howell, and targeting a couple 2nd-4th round QBs to come in and be the backup/push to start. Someone like Spencer Rattler or Joe Milton. Basically, the FO would have to be fairly confident that Howell is/could reach the ceiling of the guys available in the Top 3.

 

If Peters determines that Howell's ceiling = Maye/Daniels ceiling, then we should absolutely be trading back. If he likes someone like Rattler or Milton or Pratt long-term too, then even better. But I have a hard time envisioning them seeing Howell in that light. I would defer to their judgement in the end, however. Because the alternative would HAVE to be to trade out and get an absolute draft haul which would be a clear win for the long-term quality of the team. The only scenario where I would be truly frustrated/aghast would be if we stayed at #2 and drafted a WR or DE or something. 

Edited February 27 by JamesMadisonSkins

[CommanderInTheRye]

These are the remaining three quarterbacks on Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 list:

 

 

.

 

 

[Warhead36]

A random Bears blog saying there’s chatter means less than nothing

[MartinC]

13 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

I can't think of any off the top of my head, and I think it's because that move is "getting cute" ... you risk losing your guy if you have a guy identified. The only way I can see it making sense for us is if this front office just loves Spencer Rattler (or someone like him) and feels really good about getting him in the 2nd round. But even then, who is to say the Vikings or the Broncos don't love him, and "overdraft" him ... leaving you without your guy? It's just risky, and your back up plan has to involve NOT getting your guy. Interestingly, in our case, at least we have Howell.

 

I discussed this earlier in the off-season but IF, big IF, this front office thinks Howell could be the guy, and they like someone in the draft that could be had in R2 or R3, then a trade-down and draft haul makes sense. If you DON'T get your guy, you still have Howell. But this scenario requires that 1) we really like Howell, 2) we really like someone later that we can pair with Howell to compete, and 3) not loving any of the Top 3 guys, 4) having an offer on the table to make a trade-down worth it, 5) some serious balls as this strategy could blow up in their face very easily.

 

*The caveat to this is at least you'll have a boat load of picks to build the team up around Howell/TBD rookie QB. But as many have pointed out, if you miss out on the next Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow and end up settling for average QB play, but you have a stacked team around said QB, you're unlikely to be drafting anywhere in the Top 3/5 to get the blue-chip QB if that ends up being the missing piece. Peters has had success on teams with late-round QBs (Brady/Pats, Purdy/49ers), so there's certainly a chance that if anyone is going to go that route, it could be him. I guess we'll see.

If you make that move as a GM you’d better be right. If you pass up the next Mahomes or Peyton for a couple of good tackles and a linebacker that get you to 9 wins and a wild card loss every year that will get you fired.

 

If you swing at the QB high you’d better get that right as well of course. But if you swing and miss people get you at least took the swing and you probably get another go around assuming the rest of the roster is not a flaming dumpster fire.

 

 

[Koolblue13]

I'd say there is less than a 2% chance at anything happening, besides QB, but it sure is fun to think about.

 

Fix our OL, add Nabers, Corley, Sanders and Estime along with some adult play calling and see Howell grow as a passer.

[skinny21]

52 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Did I say I thought that was likely? No. I think it's very unlikely. Chicago will almost certainly pick Williams. The point is that getting cute and playing FAFO with the #1 overall pick when it's a franchise defining QB is idiotic because you don't fully know what other teams will do.

 

You stay there and make your pick. Which is exactly what the Bears will do.

You said it was ludicrous, and I agreed with you…?

 

Anyway, I agree that “getting cute” with the decision to take a blue chip qb prospect is idiotic.  If I had 2 guys rated closely or was torn on which to take though?  I’d take the trade down in a heart beat.  This is more about philosophy than what I think the Bears do, though I suppose there’s a small (maybe minuscule) chance that’s the boat they find themselves in…

I’ll just add that part of my thinking stems from how opinions differ on Maye vs Daniels on this board, and in the media.  Seems a general consensus that Williams is ahead of Maye, though of course we’ve seen some outliers there as well.

[skinny21]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'd say there is less than a 2% chance at anything happening, besides QB, but it sure is fun to think about.

 

Fix our OL, add Nabers, Corley, Sanders and Estime along with some adult play calling and see Howell grow as a passer.

Yep.  I’ll even go so far as to say there’s a small part of me that wishes we’d finished outside of the top 3 picks, lol.  But we didn’t and so going for a qb is a no brainer IMO (and I’m excited about it).  I’d actually say that the way everything has lined up - Snyder selling, landing a quality GM, Ron accidentally tanking, etc. - well, I’m a big believer in taking what the universe drops in your lap.