The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Koolblue13]

I earned a lot of respect for Kirk watching that show.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

I earned a lot of respect for Kirk watching that show.

 

I got flailed for making points like this but two of maybe the coolest fan interactions from the perspective of my kids involved Kirk.  

 

A.  My kids did a QB camp with him.  My daughter actually made it on an ESPN segment back then showcasing Kirk.  Kirk had hundreds of kids in that camp, in due time, he remembered all of their names including my kids, which stunned me.  Bruce couldn't even pronounce Kirk's name yet Kirk is recalling the names of hundreds of strangers.  Impressive.  He was of course a gentleman throughout that camp.  Took pictures with everyone, would chat, etc. 

 

B.  I would stay in the Omni at Richmond during camp.  The team stayed there, too.  I wouldn't bother the players.  Only times I got into conversations is running into Bruce Allen waiting for the elevator, he started the conversation (I talked about that back then in a thread) and Manusky.  But there would be some kids who would hover around the lobby of the hotel wanting autographs.  Players would thereby avoid eye contact an rush to the elevators but on occasion sign if they got mobbed, etc.  But they'd have to be mobbed typically to oblige.

 

I was sitting with my 2 kids in the lobby drinking beverages from the Starbucks in the lobby, keeping to ourselves.  Kirk spots one of my kids wearing his jersey from afar.  He actually approached them asking if they want an autograph and chatted with my kids.  He clearly didn't have to do that especially returning tired from camp, and he approached them -- it wasn't the other way around where often players are approached by the fans and sometimes they sign and sometimes they don't.  Through this day, I've never had a player approach my kids for an autograph.     Again, the players get approached, they don't approach the fans.  So that Kirk experience was unique and memorable

[Est.1974]

Kirks a bit of a dick. Yes we should have paid him. We’d have been marginally better under the structure we were operating under. But we weren’t winning anything with Kirk.

 

Thankfully we have new time ahead and we don’t need to have circular debates over mediocrity.

[wit33]

 

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Getting a franchise QB can turn around any team.  Ron has said Qb is the reason why this team isn't as good as the other teams in the NFL.  So he recognizes the problem.

 

But I hated the logic behind his why they didn't dig Herbert argument which came off more or less to me hey if the player is so obviously guy that Mel Kiper and name that draft geek can't even get it wrong -- that's our dude and Herbert didn't fit that.

 

Contrast that logic with the long article I read about the Chiefs sniffing around Mahomes for years and thought he was special even though he was far from a consensus no brainer stud QB.

 

Randy Mueller's (ex-Gm) point about QBs if you have a really good evaluator, you can leapfrog beyond the consensus QB narrative and find that guy.  He didn't seem to think Ron fit that genre.  Ron's comments about Herbert in my book walks into Mueller's criticism.

Ron’s an absolute train wreck in front of a camera. I haven’t aligned with his messaging from early on, but going into last season he started to speak with urgency and putting his feet to the fire. I really believe he thought they were ready to win at a high level last year and why he was dying for competency at the QB spot— his version of an all in approach you have shared wanting this season.
 

To me, he decided to go all in with the defense and by hanging onto guys like Logan Thomas, Fuller and Curtis Samuel. I believe he sincerely thinks the roster is ready, but realizes the QB spot is what’s required to make the next step and be lauded by all. 
 

Fortunately, he seems to be about action and keeping his word in everyday life and that’s what counts. With that said, playoffs or bust (stating the obvious). 

 

21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I got flailed for making points like this but two of maybe the coolest fan interactions from the perspective of my kids involved Kirk.  

 

A.  My kids did a QB camp with him.  My daughter actually made it on an ESPN segment back then showcasing Kirk.  Kirk had hundreds of kids in that camp, in due time, he remembered all of their names including my kids, which stunned me.  Bruce couldn't even pronounce Kirk's name yet Kirk is recalling the names of hundreds of strangers.  Impressive.  He was of course a gentleman throughout that camp.  Took pictures with everyone, would chat, etc. 

 

B.  I would stay in the Omni at Richmond during camp.  The team stayed there, too.  I wouldn't bother the players.  Only times I got into conversations is running into Bruce Allen waiting for the elevator, he started the conversation (I talked about that back then in a thread) and Manusky.  But there would be some kids who would hover around the lobby of the hotel wanting autographs.  Players would thereby avoid eye contact an rush to the elevators but on occasion sign if they got mobbed, etc.  But they'd have to be mobbed typically to oblige.

 

I was sitting with my 2 kids in the lobby drinking beverages from the Starbucks in the lobby, keeping to ourselves.  Kirk spots one of my kids wearing his jersey from afar.  He actually approached them asking if they want an autograph and chatted with my kids.  He clearly didn't have to do that especially returning tired from camp, and he approached them -- it wasn't the other way around where often players are approached by the fans and sometimes they sign and sometimes they don't.  Through this day, I've never had a player approach my kids for an autograph.     Again, the players get approached, they don't approach the fans.  So that Kirk experience was unique and memorable

 

He seems to care less about adults and has a big soft spot for kids, no doubt lol.
 

With that said, if I had that experience with my son (he’s 9) that would probably put me in a mental pretzel relating to how I feel about the dude. I might be like the guy in here who changed his avatar to Vikings @Tsailand

Edited July 22, 2023 by wit33

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

Ron’s an absolute train wreck in front of a camera. I haven’t aligned with his messaging from early on, but going into last season he started to speak with urgency and putting his feet to the fire. I really believe he thought they were ready to win at a high level last year and why he was dying for competency at the QB spot— his version of an all in approach you have shared wanting this season.

 

As Galdi likes to point out he also changes his tune and either forgets about what he said previously or perhaps hopes others forget.  

 

I think he expected Wentz to kill it, and the O line would be good considered Masko's previous success dealing with overcoming injuries, etc with that unit.  But both points crashed.  Rivera acknowledged that those points went awry.  But he never seem to own up later on that he said previously that season 3 was the year to expect the big jump.

 

He seemed to back off of the third season is where you make your big climb once he it was clear that it didn't happen.  Instead he hung to the idea that they made "progress" as if that was his bar all along.  Even though it wasn't. 

 

I'd have respected Ron more if he said yeah i did say the third year is the year to make the big climb but it just didn't happen.  It will add to the urgency for next year.  Or something like that. 

 

Instead when a reporter brought up to Ron, hey you said last year would be the year, he came off like a politician -- talking about they made good progress.  Basically he asked the media-fans to ignore his proclamations before the season,

 

Ron is a good dude.  But I'd go further than saying he's a train wreck in front of the camera.  He also veers from being very honest and also very dishonest-political.  He's honest in that he at times reveals things that most coaches never would.  He's dishonest (I don't think intentionally though) and political when he basically spins off of prior rhetoric if it doesn't fit current circumstances.

 

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

 

He seems to care less about adults and has a big soft spot for kids, no doubt lol.
 

With that said, if I had that experience with my son (he’s 9) that would probably put me in a mental pretzel relating to how I feel about the dude. I might be like the guy in here who changed his avatar to Vikings @Tsailand

 

I don't know if he cares less or more.  But he's not an extrovert.  Most QBs are.  You can see it on Mahomes, etc.  Howell should be interesting because he has 2 things in common with Kirk.  A.  Uber religious, boy scout, and likes to talk about it, too.  B.  Introverted.  And a bit nerdy.  I think Kirk is more of a dork.  Howell doesn't strike me a dork at all.  But both have those things in common.

 

As far as kids, yeah from my perspective I give extra props for players who are good with them.  Kirk as i mentioned is great with them.  Some of the other players over the years who are great on that front: Josh Norman, Chase Young, Terry McLaurin, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Peterson (ironic in his case).  Two dudes that i have seen in many practices and lol seem to want nothing to do with talking to kids:  Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne.  With Payne I think based on what I've observed, he's just shy and doesn't like to engage with strangers.  In Allen's case, I see the videos where if he's in the mood he will interact.  But based on 10 practices or so i've not seen Allen in the mood to talk to anyone.   

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

Fortunately, he seems to be about action and keeping his word in everyday life and that’s what counts. With that said, playoffs or bust (stating the obvious). 

 

Agree with this.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Kirk story..

 

Was covering a game for ES and on my name tag they put “Kirk <Last Name>”. Kirk is not my name.

 

So, getting on the elevator to head to the game I’m talking to @TK and saying, “and really, Kirk? They got my name wrong AND made it Kirk… of all things?”

 

As I was speaking the elevator opened right on the “and really Kirk” part.

 

After I finished my sentence I turned to get on the elevator and… there’s Kirk Cousins.

 

”HI!” He says with a big smile.

 

Oof.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

54 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Kirk story..

 

Was covering a game for ES and on my name tag they put “Kirk <Last Name>”. Kirk is not my name.

 

So, getting on the elevator to head to the game I’m talking to @TK and saying, “and really, Kirk? They got my name wrong AND made it Kirk… of all things?”

 

As I was speaking the elevator opened right on the “and really Kirk” part.

 

After I finished my sentence I turned to get on the elevator and… there’s Kirk Cousins.

 

”HI!” He says with a big smile.

 

Oof.

 

 

You should have said "I think they gave me your name tag" lol...

[Skinsinparadise]

[NoCalMike]

I just hope that if the O-line shows struggles early, the coaches get pro-active about the situation and start utilizing Howell's mobility to extend plays.  Bootlegs, rollouts, simply shifting him around in the pocket can buy time.  I think some of the hesitancy with having Heinicke do that was it took away any ability of him to throw the ball due to the lack of velocity his throws had to begin with so defenses knew if he was flushed a certain direction it was game over.   Howell on the other hand should be able to make almost any throw while on the move, just got to hope the accuracy doesn't suffer as much.  I don't think we have a good enough O-line for Howell, or any QB on the roster to simply drop back and sit in the pocket.  This season will also give us a good idea of Howell's feel for the pass rush.  Does he bail immediately at any sign of pressure or is he able to deliver throws in situations where he might take some contact but not until after the ball is gone. 

 

Howell has all the physical tools, but there are certain aspects of the QB position that physical tools alone don't account for.  Too early to tell if Howel has those necessary instincts and factors to play the position at the NFL level, but we should have a pretty good idea about it by the end of this season.

[wit33]

 

58 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

I just hope that if the O-line shows struggles early, the coaches get pro-active about the situation and start utilizing Howell's mobility to extend plays.  Bootlegs, rollouts, simply shifting him around in the pocket can buy time.

 

It seems offenses have gone away bootlegs and rollouts in recent years. Not sure if data supports this, so feel free to trash this take with real data lol. I’ve never been a huge fan of it unless it’s connected with the run game. 

 

58 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

  I think some of the hesitancy with having Heinicke do that was it took away any ability of him to throw the ball due to the lack of velocity his throws had to begin with so defenses knew if he was flushed a certain direction it was game over.   Howell on the other hand should be able to make almost any throw while on the move, just got to hope the accuracy doesn't suffer as much.  I don't think we have a good enough O-line for Howell, or any QB on the roster to simply drop back and sit in the pocket.  This season will also give us a good idea of Howell's feel for the pass rush.  Does he bail immediately at any sign of pressure or is he able to deliver throws in situations where he might take some contact but not until after the ball is gone. 
 

 

I want him to bail out, that’s what I see the todays elite QBs do. No doubt there’s a balance, but to be elite you must bail out with idea to extend or take needed yards. This is reserved for the elite, the ones who can balance both and what I’m rooting for with Howell. No way saying him satying in the pocket for most part is bad and won’t lead him to achieving competence at the QB spot. If he becomes competent at his rookie salary that still puts Washington in a great spot for next couple years before deciding to pay him. 

 

58 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Howell has all the physical tools, but there are certain aspects of the QB position that physical tools alone don't account for.  Too early to tell if Howel has those necessary instincts and factors to play the position at the NFL level, but we should have a pretty good idea about it by the end of this season.

His backyard instincts is what I’m most confident in at this point. It’s magical. 

 

Not sure if Washington has a progressive minded coaching staff to allow him to fully express himself on the football field—hopeful EB is that dude, but worry some about his militant style of coaching discouraging it. Also, worry EBs personal agenda to prove to rest of the NFL world he’s that guy and want to control everything. 
 

Common for QBs to get instincts coached out of them, but Rodgers the OG of backyard football and F the OCs 4th and 5th read in the pocket style of play has trailblazed the path for QBs to now be encouraged to create and express themselves when the bum OC calls a bad play or out coached for that snap. 
 

I want high school Sam Howell: 

 

 

And…

 

junior season Howell:

 

 

Bail out and run!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited July 23, 2023 by wit33

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

(most clutch list)

 

Do you happen to know what he based the definition of "clutch" on?

 

(and I gave the laughing emoji response when I saw Heinicke's name on there at 15 lol...I just thought "Rut roh"...

[Barry.Randolphe]

the best part about this season is if Howell does good and leads us to the playoffs, we've maybe got something to build on.

 

If Howell sucks and we get a top 3 pick, we can take Caleb Williams and lead the rebuild.

 

It's a win/win.

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 minutes ago, Barry.Randolphe said:

the best part about this season is if Howell does good and leads us to the playoffs, we've maybe got something to build on.

 

If Howell sucks and we get a top 3 pick, we can take Caleb Williams and lead the rebuild.

 

It's a win/win.

I don’t think there’s any chance we are bad enough to get to a top 3 pick.  
 

Howell almost can’t be as bad as Heinicke/Wentz last year.  But even if he is, they won 8 games last year with atrocious QB play.   
 

And if he is, they’ll put JB in.

[Barry.Randolphe]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don’t think there’s any chance we are bad enough to get to a top 3 pick.  
 

Howell almost can’t be as bad as Heinicke/Wentz last year.  But even if he is, they won 8 games last year with atrocious QB play.   
 

And if he is, they’ll put JB in.

 

We would be stupid to try and salvage a season if we can instead jumpstart a rebuild with the best talent at QB we've seen since RG3's rookie year.

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

This kindof proves how analytics lie.  
 

TH is not clutch.  
 

He is lucky.  
 

“Lies, damn lies and statistics.”

 

Interestingly enough the first time I heard that saying was from my college stats 401 professor.  Who was awesome. 

Just now, Barry.Randolphe said:

 

We would be stupid to try and salvage a season if we can instead jumpstart a rebuild with the best talent at QB we've seen since RG3's rookie year.

Stupid or not, it’s not going to happen.  No way Ron keeps Howell in if he’s worst than Wentz/TH.

 

And the defense is too good to be that bad. 

[samy316]

12 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Stupid or not, it’s not going to happen.  No way Ron keeps Howell in if he’s worst than Wentz/TH.

 

And the defense is too good to be that bad. 

Unfortunately, this is correct.  Our defense is too good for us to completely tank, if Howell doesn’t perform well, and we turn to JB. Our floor is 6-7 wins, based on the defense alone. Our ceiling oddly enough is not that much better.  I don’t see us winning more than 9-10 games, because most Rivera teams start slow, and take a while to settle in.  We’re a wild card team best case scenario.

Edited July 23, 2023 by samy316

[tomwvr]

2 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Unfortunately, this is correct.  Our defense is too good for us to completely tank, if Howell doesn’t perform well, and we turn to JB. Our floor is 6-7 wins, based on the defense alone. Our ceiling oddly enough is not that much better.  I don’t see us winning more than 9-10 games, because most Rivera teams start slow, and take a while to settle in.  We’re a wild card team best case scenario.

Wild Card gets Ron another 2 years ...

[samy316]

11 minutes ago, tomwvr said:

Wild Card gets Ron another 2 years ...

Yes, that is possible.  If Ron gets 10 wins and a wildcard, he’s probably back.  I think it’s a long shot that it happens though.  Our schedule is tough, and I don’t trust our O-Line to protect Howell.  I’m predicting 8-9.

[MrJL]

23 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Unfortunately, this is correct.  Our defense is too good for us to completely tank, if Howell doesn’t perform well, and we turn to JB.  Our floor is 6-7 wins, based on the defense alone.  Our ceiling oddly enough is not that much better.  I don’t see us winning more than 9-10 games, because most Rivera teams start slow, and take a while to settle in.  We’re a wild card team best case scenario.

 

why oddly.  This is where we've been for year.  Hopefully Arizona and Denver are the answer to a slow start

[samy316]

Just now, MrJL said:

 

why oddly.  This is where we've been for year.  Hopefully Arizona and Denver are the answer to a slow start

Yeah, I would hope we win the first two games, because the next two games will be the toughest test of the season.  2-2 after 4 is a lot better to stomach than 1-3 or worse.  2-2 after 4 games keeps us in the wild card hunt until mid-late October at the very least.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, samy316 said:

Unfortunately, this is correct.  Our defense is too good for us to completely tank, if Howell doesn’t perform well, and we turn to JB. Our floor is 6-7 wins, based on the defense alone. Our ceiling oddly enough is not that much better.  I don’t see us winning more than 9-10 games, because most Rivera teams start slow, and take a while to settle in.  We’re a wild card team best case scenario.

Best case Scenario is Howell is actively “good.”  If that’s the case then the ceiling is probably 11-12 wins.  
 

Good Qb + good skill position players + what should be a really good defense = 10+ wins.

 

Most people just dismiss the possibility Howell could be good.  It is not the most likely scenario but it is a possibility. 

[samy316]

57 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Best case Scenario is Howell is actively “good.”  If that’s the case then the ceiling is probably 11-12 wins.  
 

Good Qb + good skill position players + what should be a really good defense = 10+ wins.

 

Most people just dismiss the possibility Howell could be good.  It is not the most likely scenario but it is a possibility. 

Howell could be good, but I’m factoring in things that could derail the season that are out of his control, like the O-Line, and quite frankly, coaching.  That’s why my ceiling is at 10 wins.  I have a sinking feeling that we’re going to start slow out of the gate again (which is almost typical now under Rivera), and we’ll be playing catch up all season with a bad O-Line, and an OC that has never fully called plays before.

 

It would be just like this team to blow either the Cards game at home, or the Broncos game on the road.  In order to still

have a competitive season, we need to win both.  If we drop either game, it’s going to go downhill from there, with the Bills & Eagles

coming up, especially with their D-Lines against this O-Line.

 

One other thing I wanted to add is the wildcard of how Rivera will work with EB during the season.  If the O-Line is not playing up to par early on in pass blocking, does Ron revert to a more conservative approach to the offense, becoming more run-oriented?  I wouldn’t put it past Ron, if we struggle to pass block, for us to then become what we were late last year, which is a run the ball, ball control oriented offense.

Edited July 24, 2023 by samy316

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Howell could be good, but I’m factoring in things that could derail the season that are out of his control, like the O-Line, and quite frankly, coaching.  That’s why my ceiling is at 10 wins.  I have a sinking feeling that we’re going to start slow out of the gate again (which is almost typical now under Rivera), and we’ll be playing catch up all season with a bad O-Line, and an OC that has never fully called plays before.

 

It would be just like this team to blow either the Cards game at home, or the Broncos game on the road.  In order to still

have a competitive season, we need to win both.  If we drop either game, it’s going to go downhill from there, with the Bills & Eagles

coming up, especially with their D-Lines against this O-Line.

Yeah, but nobody actually knows.  Everybody wants to crap on the OL, but nobody knows it's actually going to be bad.  EB and JDR actually are pretty good coordinators, and with any luck the other in-game stuff won't be a huge issue.

 

The whole season hinges on Howell and EB.  If they are good, the team is good.  If they are not, it's not.  It's EB's job to figure out how to work around whatever deficiencies there are on the OL.  Remember, Walsh created the WCO when he was in Cincinnati as OC because they had a crap OL.  The whole system was born out of the philosophy to minimize the impact of the OL. 

 

I'm not saying any of this WILL happen.  But the ceiling is higher than people want to think it is.  I think the floor is also higher.  I think the floor, absent an intentional effort to lose games, is probably 7 wins.  I think the ceiling could be 11 or 12 wins.  

 

Most likely they get 9.  I think you can look at them as a 9-win team with a +/ - of 2 games depending on luck/circumstance. 

 

But the NFL is such a week to week league, you have no idea what could happen. 

 

One thing I will comment on, however: I think FedEx is going to be LIT for the opener, and energy is contagious.  That doesn't necessarily make your team bigger/stronger/faster/better, but it is very helpful.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them get on a little run to open the season.  And Ron hasn't actually had issues in openers.  It's weeks 2-8 which have been a problem.  He's actually 2-1 in openers and the one they lost, San Diego, they could very easily have won if (I think) Gibson hadn't fumbled and I think there was a TH turnover at the end of that one as well.  I could be mis-remembering that, and I'm not going to go look it up.  But it was close, they had a chance, and made booboos to lose it.  

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Yeah, but nobody actually knows.  Everybody wants to crap on the OL, but nobody knows it's actually going to be bad.  EB and JDR actually are pretty good coordinators, and with any luck the other in-game stuff won't be a huge issue.

 

The whole season hinges on Howell and EB.  If they are good, the team is good.  If they are not, it's not.  It's EB's job to figure out how to work around whatever deficiencies there are on the OL.  Remember, Walsh created the WCO when he was in Cincinnati as OC because they had a crap OL.  The whole system was born out of the philosophy to minimize the impact of the OL. 

100% agree. 
 

RPO equals West Coast in context you used regarding Oline help. 
 

When the line inevitably collapses in a 3rd and long (they all do) let’s hope Howell puts on his cape enough to win games. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

15 minutes ago, wit33 said:

When the line inevitably collapses in a 3rd and long (they all do) let’s hope Howell puts on his cape enough to win games. 

The real key, and this is where analytics is helpful, is to stay out of 3rd and longs. In 2020 (which is the latest numbers I could find) 3rd and 7 or 8 was a league wide 34%, and 3rd and 9 or 10 was 31%.

 

You're just never going to make a living being in those situations.  

 

3rd and 1 or 2 is a 60%+  conversion rate.  

 

With that said, the key to an efficient offense is simple:  either stay our of 3rd down altogether, or make sure the 3rd down is as short as possible.  

 

What we've seen the last several years, going all the way back to Jay, is this team is PUTRID on 1st down.  The team has run at a MUCH too high a rate on first down for a low average.  Which puts you in 2nd and long, and our dope OCs have thought the best way to get out of that is to run to get to "3rd and manageable."  

 

Except the numbers tell you that 3rd and 3 or 4 is still a league-wide 52% conversion rate.  

 

So, the solution is to be better and more creative on first down so you either don't have a 3rd down, or you're already in a good position for a 3rd and short-ish.

 

My fervent hope is EB is smart enough to know this, and I really think he is.  If he can scheme a quick-game to get the ball out of Howell's hands in 2.5 seconds or less, throw in some runs and a few PA shots, you can almost get to 7 on 7.  And take the OL right out of the game.  

 

Scott never had that philosophy.  The Tuner philosophy was "block 'em up" and stretch the field vertically with a power run game.  That style of football is dependent on a REALLY good OL.

 

A true WCO is not. And when you weave in other concepts, such as RPO and the QB as a runner, it evens thins out even further.

 

Which is why I say, the entire season is on EB and Howell.  If they're good, they can almost mitigate any OL issues.  If they're not, they can't.

 

If we try and play bully-ball and run the ball down the field, we will fight bravely and lose quickly.