The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

I agree - I think Daniels is a rail-thin, toothpick who is destined to get injured. He literally looks like a taller version of me build-wise, aka not NFL material. But Cooley isn't bothered and Keim is sort of brushing it off, too. It's not like they aren't seeing the same guy I am. Maybe I've been overly concerned? Idk... it's so hard to convince myself that this isn't a terrible decision for that reason but the smoke really suggests he's going to be the pick. 

 

The fact that they're brushing it off is even more indicative of a problem than not IMO. Seeing something that's staring you right in the face (the running/pressure/throwing analytics along with the super slight frame) and then just ignoring it is IMO an indication that their positive view of Daniels is getting in the way of objective analysis. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I bet they reveal their pick

 

 

[Wyvern]

The only point I'd make is whether any weight gain on Daniels part would help what I see as a slender chassis and shoulder structure. 

 

While you might be able to increase muscle mass (ideally without steroids) especially in the thigh region, It's very difficult to increase the density or strength of your bone structure.  And if possible, that's a slow process generally your stuck with the frame you were given to grow into.

 

From what I've seen in many  Video clips, the top half of Daniels is slender, albeit some what muscled.  Even so, that kind of frame could be vulnerable to an illegally rough sack.  And the flexibility to absorb that kind of shock to one's skeletal frames and tendons gets worse as you get closer to 30.

 

Even with his "210 weight" as reported , I'm worried Daniels could be sidelined by sacking injuries if he lands on his shoulder, when being taken down hard.  I see a slender frame, maybe even more slender than WRs, who only have to worry about 200+ lbs. Safeties and CBs, not 300 lb. linemen.

 

And I'm not even considering what happens to him, if he tries running.

 

Everything I've seen is "fragile". And potentially even more fragile, as the hits mount up. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Mayes mechanics are enough of an issue that it caused his accuracy to be considered a weakness. Which is the reason he isn’t the slam dunk #2 pick.

 

if I’m investing in him I’d want to commit to fixing that issue and make him the QB he can be for the future rather than throwing him out there and hoping he could fix stuff in his spare time.

 

Daniels doesn’t need to sit to learn how to throw the ball over the middle. He needs to play to get better at that.

 

But IMO you're also hoping that Daniels can fix his tendency to not throw into tight 2nd level windows and throw with anticipation. If it takes him long to fix that habit then those are basically recipes for interception in the NFL. That or he'll continue to be tentative about making those throws which will limit his repertoire and allow defenses to sit on the short and boundary stuff and dare him to make those difficult throws.

 

And sure, he can lean on his running ability, but that, along with his tendency to pull his eyes down very fast when pressured, could also introduce a whole new set of issues, mostly injury related, as he'd probably be running a lot as he won't have the security blankets of a very good OL and elite WR playmakers.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

I just remembered, I have to go to the future front office thread. No offense guys but this whole conversation is a little…

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

34 minutes ago, Wyvern said:

The only point I'd make is whether any weight gain on Daniels part would help what I see as a slender chassis and shoulder structure. 

 

While you might be able to increase muscle mass (ideally without steroids) especially in the thigh region, It's very difficult to increase the density or strength of your bone structure.  And if possible, that's a slow process generally your stuck with the frame you were given to grow into.

 

From what I've seen in many  Video clips, the top half of Daniels is slender, albeit some what muscled.  Even so, that kind of frame could be vulnerable to an illegally rough sack.  And the flexibility to absorb that kind of shock to one's skeletal frames and tendons gets worse as you get closer to 30.

 

Even with his "210 weight" as reported , I'm worried Daniels could be sidelined by sacking injuries if he lands on his shoulder, when being taken down hard.  I see a slender frame, maybe even more slender than WRs, who only have to worry about 200+ lbs. Safeties and CBs, not 300 lb. linemen.

 

And I'm not even considering what happens to him, if he tries running.

 

Everything I've seen is "fragile". And potentially even more fragile, as the hits mount up. 

 

 

55 games played in his career. The last two years he was a marked man in the SEC. 

 

Teams knew they had to stop him to win. They threw everything including the kitchen sink at him.

 

He missed one game due to injury after all that.

 

Some guys regardless of their frame/body type get hurt and some for whatever reason just don't.

 

A lot of players look like Tarzan but once the hitting starts they just keep getting hurt and missing games like they're  Jane.

 

Others like Jayden have bodies like Jane, but play hard and tough like they're Tarzan and for whatever reason they don't end up injured.

 

What you see isn't always what it seems.

Edited April 17 by CommanderInTheRye

[Dah-Dee]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

And as far as Daniels, what about all of the red flags? You seem to basically be hand-waving them away when they're actually very concerning. NFL QBs practically make their living deep down the middle into tight windows. And anticipation throws before WRs make their breaks are often the difference between a completion and an interception in the NFL.

 

We could say the same about folks hand-waving away, or completely ignoring, or deflecting blame for, Maye's track record of poor judgment and baffling decision-making that resulted in 16 interceptions the last two years against by far the weakest competition any of the top 2024 QB prospects faced. He threw 9 this year against the fourth-weakest schedule for any Power 5 team. Do we really believe that a year of Maye versus NFL defenses would result in fewer than the 21 picks Howell threw last year? I'm not sold on that, at all. 

 

RG3 PTSD is probably the biggest reason I lean Maye versus Daniels, but I'm not looking at Maye through rosy lenses either. The kid has his own red flags, and not just with footwork, and those can't all be laid at the feet of 'poor supporting cast' - which metrics show wasn't nearly as bad as some like to pretend, by the way - just like all Daniels' success can't all be hand-waved away to Nabers and Thomas. 

 

I also take issue with the idea that NFL QBs 'make their living deep down the middle into tight windows.'  Maybe in 1983, but not today:

 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/what-does-accuracy-tell-us-about-the-2024-quarterback-draft-class/

 

SIS defines on-target percentage as “a pass that hits the receiver in stride, regardless of whether the pass is completed.” It’s not a perfect one-for-one stand-in for accuracy, but it paints a picture of ball placement we can use to set up a prospect’s profile.

 

Here’s a look at the 2024 class with their depth rates, completion rates and on-target rates compared to each other.

 

The first thing to note is how different the college and NFL games are from a depth standpoint. Only the quarterbacks listed above threw passes between 1-10 air yards on more than 40 percent of their attempts. 

 

Meanwhile, NFL quarterbacks live in this world. Among 32 qualified quarterbacks in 2023, only three were below 40 percent. The average for NFL quarterbacks last season was 47.7 percent.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------

 

Even if we're running a Kingsbury offense in 2024 that, unlike any Kingsbury offense before, makes any kind of significant use of anticipation routes or tight windows, these analytics tell us that whether it's 1-10 air yards, or 11-19, or 20+, the QB you want throwing those, the guy who will more consistently put the ball where it needs to be, is Daniels and not Maye.

 

One problem with Daniels, something that doesn't show up in this chart but has been well-documented elsewhere and discussed to death in this thread, is that Daniels doesn't make 'enough' of those 11-19 yard throws over the middle to make us comfortable with his ability to do it consistently - even though stats say that when asked to do that, he's done it well.

 

That lack of sample size, along with Daniels' beaten-to-death propensities for (1) running versus passing when under pressure; and (2) taking sacks when under pressure, does understandably create concerns, especially in the context of having a slight frame.  But we're not giving enough credence to the possibility that in an offense where coaches are *not* directing him to run if he sees any daylight, and are using the middle of the field primarily for routes instead of consistently clearing it out to facilitate those runs, Daniels will continue to be effective over the middle even at a higher volume.

 

I think we're lucky to be in a position where we have our choice of two of the best QB prospects to hit the draft in years. The QB class this year absolutely has the potential to rival the legendary 1983 class. So I'd much rather dream about how we could best use either of these guys, than tear them down - but it's like herding cats to try steering things away from 'Give me [insert QB name] or give me death!' pronouncements of doom if we take one or the other of them.

 

I need a drink. When's the *&#!((@!! draft?

Edited April 17 by Dah-Dee

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[DogofWar1]

That chart makes my eyes hurt.  I pulled out the important people for easier readability

 

[KDawg]

Don’t you guys get tired of this routine?

 

 

It’s funny that the items the “experts” are talking about now are the same ones a few of us were discussing in December.  And most people here didn’t give a **** about until the TV/media started saying it.

 

As far as I’m concerned nothing has changed. The analytics, production, none of it.

 

Each guy, including Williams by the way, have their positives and their negatives. That even extends to Penix and Rattler (who I think is the sleeper pick in this class)

 

I legitimately think any of the top 6 or so could be successful in the NFL if they wind up in an organization with a plan to support them that sticks to it. 
 

I can also see a world where any of the top six bomb.

 

But in my head, when I’m doubt, you go with physical attributes, but limit the value of speed.

 

Why? Speed fades. So to determine the guy I want I have basically said to myself: Who has the best arm/accuracy/height/weight/demeanor and athleticism? That’s who I want.

 

And I have landed at, in order:

 

1. Drake Maye at 2.

2. JJ McCarthy at 4.

3. Jayden Daniels at 2.

 

If we get to 3, I will be still be pretty ecstatic. But a touch letdown. But only a touch. The only thing that can derail me here is if we trade back and wind up with Kevon Slovis.

 

 

[Llevron]

16 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

But IMO you're also hoping that Daniels can fix his tendency to not throw into tight 2nd level windows and throw with anticipation. If it takes him long to fix that habit then those are basically recipes for interception in the NFL. That or he'll continue to be tentative about making those throws which will limit his repertoire and allow defenses to sit on the short and boundary stuff and dare him to make those difficult throws.

 

And sure, he can lean on his running ability, but that, along with his tendency to pull his eyes down very fast when pressured, could also introduce a whole new set of issues, mostly injury related, as he'd probably be running a lot as he won't have the security blankets of a very good OL and elite WR playmakers.

I think the problem with your argument is that you assume the tendency to not throw over the middle is a problem of his. What you have, statistically, is that he doesn’t throw over the middle much. You go on to argue that this is something VITAL for all NFL offenses to be successful. 
 

Your numbers do not prove that he is bad at it or that he avoids throwing it there. Those leaps in conclusion are why you are baffled that people are not agreeing with you. If we knew those things were true I think most people would agree. 
 

I made the point tacitly, but why would he throw over the middle? IF YOU WATCH HIM PLAY…..it’s not that he is avoiding them. It’s that he has better plays elsewhere on the field. He’s throwing to his two HOF WRs on the outside. Why wouldn’t he? That’s the more reasonable and most likely answer. But you jump to he is tentative. That is not proven and it’s why people ignore it. At BEST it’s a question. Watching him play answers it. They even run the progressions from inside out. Which is backwards but they do it to get the ball outside to his HOF WRs because that is their best matchup. It’s the correct play (like his running but we won’t go there) 
 

Past that, I’m not so sure how vital it is anyway. I would like to see numbers on that if you have them. Not arguing that point, I would just like to see them. 

[DogofWar1]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Don’t you guys get tired of this routine?

No, next question.

[KDawg]

Just now, DogofWar1 said:

No, next question.

Is this, like, rhetorical? Or do you want another question? Lemme know.

[Llevron]

Just now, KDawg said:

Is this, like, rhetorical? Or do you want another question? Lemme know.

He said what he said! 

[KDawg]

Just now, Llevron said:

He said what he said! 

Rhetorically?

[SkinsFTW]

4 hours ago, redskinss said:

Seriously though, did quinn and peters really pick up jayden personally and the others took an uber?

 

 

 

Jaden's Mom still picks him up at the bus stop. She was having none of their idea of taking an Uber by himself.

Edited April 18 by SkinsFTW

[skinsfan66]

4 hours ago, Hooper said:

The RG3 Daniels comparisons are annoying.

 

Daniels has shown he can go through his reads and throw with anticipation -- best in his class according to many.

 

RG3 pretty much never showed he could do that. In Kyle's offense he was great if his first read was open. After that, especially once the league caught on, it was not good. 

 

 They said the same about RG3 he could do it all before the draft. He is closer to RG3 than Jamar is, my opinion. A better passing Fields who had the advantage of 2 great college WR's. 

[Llevron]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Rhetorically?

Yes? That’s confusing actually 

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I think the problem with your argument is that you assume the tendency to not throw over the middle is a problem of his. What you have, statistically, is that he doesn’t throw over the middle much. You go on to argue that this is something VITAL for all NFL offenses to be successful. 
 

Your numbers do not prove that he is bad at it or that he avoids throwing it there. Those leaps in conclusion are why you are baffled that people are not agreeing with you. If we knew those things were true I think most people would agree. 
 

I made the point tacitly, but why would he throw over the middle? IF YOU WATCH HIM PLAY…..it’s not that he is avoiding them. It’s that he has better plays elsewhere on the field. He’s throwing to his two HOF WRs on the outside. Why wouldn’t he? That’s the more reasonable and most likely answer. But you jump to he is tentative. That is not proven and it’s why people ignore it. At BEST it’s a question. Watching him play answers it. They even run the progressions from inside out. Which is backwards but they do it to get the ball outside to his HOF WRs because that is their best matchup. It’s the correct play (like his running but we won’t go there) 
 

Past that, I’m not so sure how vital it is anyway. I would like to see numbers on that if you have them. Not arguing that point, I would just like to see them. 

 

I've watched all of his cutups and games. It's not that Daniels never throws over the middle (nor have I argued that he doesn't), it's that when he did (which isn't all that often) he was often throwing to guys who were wide open and he didn't have to do much layering of throws over defenders, etc. Those are things that are absolutely necessary in the NFL. He's not going to have the luxury of his WRs having 3+ yards of separation in the NFL. "Open" in the NFL is half a yard to a yard at most.

 

Can he make those tight window throws? Will he be trigger shy because he hasn't had to make money of them? Can he make the anticipation throws before his WR breaks on comebacks, outs, etc? I have no clue. But IMO it's a concern because YES those throws are absolutely imperative to be able to make in the pro grame.

 

And yes, when I watched him play I see plenty of short stuff and plenty of long balls to the boundaries outside of the numbers. Because he had the talent around him to do that and maybe was coached to. It's not necessarily a knock on him that they were open, but again we don't know if he can do the other stuff consistently.

Edited April 18 by mistertim

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Yes? That’s confusing actually 

You sure?

[Llevron]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

I've watched all of his cutups and games. It's not that Daniels never throws over the middle (nor have I argued that he doesn't), it's that when he did (which isn't all that often) he was often throwing to guys who were wide open and he didn't have to do much layering of throws over defenders, etc. Those are things that are absolutely necessary in the NFL. He's not going to have the luxury of his WRs having 3+ yards of separation in the NFL. "Open" in the NFL is half a yard to a yard at most.

 

Can he make those tight window throws? Will he be trigger shy because he hasn't had to make money of them? Fan he make the anticipation throws before his WR breaks on comebacks, outs, etc? I have no clue. But IMO it's a concern because YES those throws are absolutely imperative to be able to make in the pro grame.

 

And yes, when I watched him play I see plenty of short stuff and plenty of long balls to the boundaries outside of the numbers. Because he had the talent around him to do that and maybe was coached to. It's not necessarily a knock on him that they were open, but again we don't know if he can do the other stuff consistently.

Right I agree with most of that. Where we don’t doesn’t matter. My point is that it’s not unthinkable that people are siding with his upside and with the understanding that there is no indication he CANT do these thing. You have to do that thing y’all do with Drake Maye and his mechanics….assume it’s something that can be fixed. 
 

I know I know. You don’t think it’s fixable. I do. It’s not that confusing lol. The whole “I don’t know WHY people are ignoring this!” thing is overdone on your part. We get he has flaws. Truly. We get it. 

Just now, KDawg said:

You sure?

I’m not sure of anything anymore honestly. 

[DogofWar1]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Is this, like, rhetorical? Or do you want another question? Lemme know.

Yes

[Llevron]

 

1 minute ago, DogofWar1 said:

Yes

 

No stop he’s up to something