The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Llevron]

Just now, skinny21 said:

Is EPA a stat people care about?  Not trying to be snarky, just the “all the analytics favor Maye” obviously doesn’t factor EPA.

It depends on what point you are trying to drive home really. 

[SkinsFTW]

46 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

 

If I'm remembering the stats correctly, I think Jayden was forced off the spot roughly 90 times this season and threw on 20% of those, meaning he threw 18 times from off his spot.  So about 1.5 times per game.

 

 

 

That is horrendous. Especially considering he's going to be forced to do this 4-5 times more often in the NFL.

 

Like I mentioned before. Fields was sacked 21 times his last season at OSU, 135 times in 40 games in Chicago.

[FootballZombie]

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

Not trying to be snarky, just the “all the analytics favor Maye” obviously doesn’t factor EPA.

 

JD just put up the most efficient passing season in college football history. Like ever ever.

 

The idea that there are not a wave of metrics and analytics that not only support him, but blows others away is silly.

Hyperbole and cherry picking.

[illone]

2 hours ago, redskinss said:

Randall Cunningham spent the last ten years of his career averaging about 1200 yards a season because he wasn't hardly playing at all and Ben Roethlisberger was throwing for 4 to 5000 yards a season 15 years into his career despite all the injuries. 

 

This is a fantastic example of why I want the guy who is less likely to flash in the pan and burn out.

 

Ben was a one-read QB for the first three years of his career. 
 

Pitt won in spite of his deficiencies. 
 

Re-draft 2004 and I think most GMs would take him over Eli and Rivers… I would. 
 

I hope this team is patient with JJ and develops him properly despite some potential early growing pains. Long term gains might be worth the wait. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I blame this on all the pessimism and resignation on this thread its seeping out to the universe 😎

 

 

 

[illone]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

I blame this on all the pessimism and resignation on this thread its seeping out to the universe 😎

 

 

Im in a good spot. I have JJ at +2600 🎯

[Rufus T Firefly]

21 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

You should spend 24-7 keeping your attention solely focused on your myriad shortcomings.

 

At least you picked a decent user name 

 

😛

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Is EPA a stat (or set of stats) people care about?  Not trying to be snarky, just the “all the analytics favor Maye” obviously doesn’t factor EPA.

 

PFF guys are pro Maye -- but not to the extreme extent as some here where Daniels is sort of laughed at #2.   The Football Outsiders guy and Warren Sharp pick Daniels over Maye.

 

So it feels a bit mixed on the analytics

 

 

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2

MEAN PROJECTION	0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	49.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.6%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	16.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	8.9%

Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.

Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.

---

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4

MEAN PROJECTION	0.34 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	37.7%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	27.2%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.4%

Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville.

However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.

[CommanderInTheRye]

4 hours ago, skinsfan66 said:

Did he really play at 210 this year? I have my doubt's. 

 

 

Nothing factual to base this on, but my guess is he played anywhere from about 195 lbs to 202.

 

I think in the pros with a good dietician and trainer they can get his report to camp weight between 212 to 216 and his true game day weight between 208 to 213 without losing mobility or speed.

 

 

Edited April 14 by CommanderInTheRye

[MartinC]

I continue to repeat we are fortunate to have a choice of two blue chip prospects at a position we have a huge need.

[Dah-Dee]

 

2024 NFL draft rankings: Matt Miller's top 474 prospects

• 
  Matt Miller, NFL draft analystApr 14, 2024, 06:00 AM ET

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/38756784/2024-nfl-draft-rankings-top-prospects-positional-matt-miller

 

[excerpts]

 

1. Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 214 pounds | Grade: 98
Comp: Aaron Rodgers

Williams is an elite prospect with upper-level arm strength, running ability, field vision and poise. There are times when he forces some passes, and he'll have to get the ball out faster in the NFL, but he has shown he can carry a team and create big plays with his second-effort mobility, diverse arm angles and arm talent. Williams finished 11th in QBR last season (82.4) and threw for 3,633 yards, 30 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He is the overwhelming favorite to go first overall.

 

5. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Height: 6-4 | Weight: 210 | Grade: 95
Comp: Lamar Jackson

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Daniels was the most improved player in college football last season, as his passing touchdown total went from 17 to 40. Playing in the ultra-competitive SEC, he also rushed for 1,230 yards (not including sacks) and 10 scores. Daniels is an elite dual-threat whose improved patience and vision in the pocket allowed him to become a 95.6 QBR passer. His lean body type may give some teams pause, but his deep-ball passing and rushing ability are special traits.

 

9. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Height: 6-4 | Weight: 223 | Grade: 93
Comp: Justin Herbert

Maye's powerful right arm allows him to hit every area of the field, and high-level traits are obvious on tape. He has great arm strength and mobility to create on the go, and he is poised and aggressive as a passer and runner. Maye is also excellent under pressure and has proved he can carry a roster lacking in elite talent at core positions. He threw for 3,608 yards, 24 TDs and nine interceptions last season. Considering he had only 26 starts in college, we could see Maye sit early in his career -- but NFL scouts have already compared his ability to Herbert and Josh Allen.

 

19. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 219 | Grade: 92
Comp: Jake Plummer

McCarthy enjoyed a breakout 2023 season with more freedom in the Michigan offense, and his draft stock improved immensely. The junior has good arm strength and can speed up his release for better velocity. He's also an accomplished runner who isn't afraid to put his shoulder down to take on linebackers at the goal line. McCarthy is just 21 years old and still developing, and it shows at times in his ball placement. But he's a fast learner when he does make mistakes on the field. He finished third in the nation in QBR (88.2) while completing 72.3% of his throws. I have McCarthy lower here than his likely draft range; recent buzz around the league says he's a potential top-six pick.

 

39. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 214 | Grade: 89
Comp: Dak Prescott

Scouts love players who battle through adversity, and that's what Nix did when he transferred from Auburn to Oregon. Once in Eugene, his game elevated to a new level over two seasons, with a 22-5 record, 8,101 passing yards, 74 touchdown throws and 10 interceptions. And he took only 10 sacks over that time. Nix's timing, accuracy and mobility out of the pocket (799 rush yards excluding sacks and 20 TDs on the ground over the past two seasons) have teams talking about him as a sleeper top-15 pick.

 

40. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 216 | Grade: 89
Comp: Tua Tagovailoa

Penix was among the most prolific passers in college football after arriving at Washington from Indiana before the 2022 season, throwing 67 TD passes and 19 picks over that two-year span. He's an upper-body torque thrower but shows good arm talent. The lefty is great from a clean pocket and has easy accuracy to all levels of the field, completing 65.4% of his passes last season. He gets the ball out quickly to his primary read consistently, and he can work on the go, dialing up velocity even when his feet aren't set. But there is some injury history (knee and shoulder injuries while at Indiana) that must continue to be vetted.

 

121. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina (67)

129. Michael Pratt, QB, Tulane (65)

217. Austin Reed, QB, Western Kentucky (45)

249. Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State (37)

252. Joe Milton III, QB, Tennessee (37)

304. Sam Hartman's Hair, QB, Notre Dame (30)

307. Carter Bradley, QB, South Alabama (30)

339. Kedon Slovis, QB, BYU (30)

341. Spencer Sanders, QB, Ole Miss (30)

358. Jason Bean, QB, Kansas (30)

369. John Rhys Plumlee, QB, UCF (30)

371. Tubby Tagovailoa, QB, Maryland (30)

385. Jack Plummer, QB, Louisville (30)

399. Davius Richard, QB, NC Central (30)

430. Michael Hiers, QB, Samford (30)

474. Tanner Mordecai, QB, Wisconsin (29)

 

Edited April 14 by Dah-Dee

[Llevron]

12 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I continue to repeat we are fortunate to have a choice of two blue chip prospects at a position we have a huge need.

That’s exactly what Jayden Daniels’ agent wants you to say….🤥

17 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Nothing factual to base this on, but my guess is he played anywhere from about 195 lbs to 202.

 

I think in the pros with a good dietician and trainer they can get his report to camp weight between 212 to 216 and his true game day weight between 208 to 213 without losing mobility or speed.

 

 

I still don’t understand how it benefited LSU to lie about his playing weight. Do you think the NFL team he is drafted by is gonna lie to? Will we EVER know? 

[CommanderInTheRye]

14 minutes ago, Llevron said:

still don’t understand how it benefited LSU to lie about his playing weight. Do you think the NFL team he is drafted by is gonna lie to? Will we EVER know? 

 

still don’t understand how it benefited LSU to lie about his playing weight.

 

 

It's a tradition in college football. All the coaches fudge stuff.

 

There's also psychological and tactical value in obscuring your opponents ability to assess the truth about your status- I think Sun Tsu said something about that. 😊

 

Let's say his real weight during the season was 197. If they had listed him at that weight everyone would have assumed he weighed even less than that. Why? Because everyone assumes that nobody tells the truth.

 

 

Edited April 14 by CommanderInTheRye

[Rufus T Firefly]

15 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

still don’t understand how it benefited LSU to lie about his playing weight.

 

 

It's a tradition in college football. All the coaches fudge stuff.

 

There's also psychological and tactical value in obscuring your opponents ability to assess the truth about your status- I think Sun Tsu said something about that. 😊

 

Let's say his real weight during the season was 197. If they had listed him at that weight everyone would have assumed he weighed even less than that. Why? Because everyone assumes that nobody tells the truth.

 

 

Exactly. I agree that its silly at best to lie about it, but they all do. 

[Chump Bailey]

19 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

It's a tradition in college football. All the coaches fudge stuff.

 

Yep. Bralen Trice's weight is now being scrutinized as well.

[Jumbo]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

 

The idea that there are not a wave of metrics and analytics that not only support him, but blows others away is silly.

Hyperbole and cherry picking.

 

Talk about exaggeration ad absurdom and unintentional irony.  🧐

I assume you're running for mayor in the upsidedown and you're just trying to get free media coverage.

 

😁

58 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Nothing factual to base this on

 

 

 

 

Welcome brother!!!  

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

Is EPA a stat (or set of stats) people care about?  Not trying to be snarky, just the “all the analytics favor Maye” obviously doesn’t factor EPA.

 

EPA is a fine stat, but it's too difficult to separate player's contributions with teammates. So people try to isolate it to specific situations, or types of outcomes, and see if that says more about the QB's actual contribution.

 

The best one I looked at showed a surprising EPA similarity between Maye and Daniels. They were both a smidge above Caleb, but there are always other factors.

Edited April 14 by Always A Commander Never A Captain

[Ghost of]

Any of these guys apply their models retrospectively? I don't mean going back to Brady or hell, Montana, but about 12 years? Maybe a guy running his own site can't do that but,  uh, what about NFL teams? Any reason they don't do it? Having a model that reliably "predicts" success looking back would seem useful.  Yes I know there are stats going back a few years but we need more. 

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

Any of these guys apply their models retrospectively? I don't mean going back to Brady or hell, Montana, but about 12 years? Maybe a guy running his own site can't do that but,  uh, what about NFL teams? Any reason they don't do it? Having a model that reliably "predicts" success looking back would seem useful.  Yes I know there are stats going back a few years but we need more. 

I'm sure there are statistical databases that some teams have that are exclusive and proprietary.

 

I would hope Eugene Shen's got models for all sorts of crap.

[Llevron]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

Any of these guys apply their models retrospectively? I don't mean going back to Brady or hell, Montana, but about 12 years? Maybe a guy running his own site can't do that but,  uh, what about NFL teams? Any reason they don't do it? Having a model that reliably "predicts" success looking back would seem useful.  Yes I know there are stats going back a few years but we need more. 

They have and there is very little correlation if any. It almost ends up being random. Some of the numbers stay steady and we can draw stuff from that. That’s where the P2S% is getting all this attention. Typically that does not improve in the NFL. 
 

But then you look at the list of guys who are absurdly low, expecting it to show you a list of elite athletes and it’s guys like Davis Webb and Gardner Minshew and Carson Wentz. No reall correlation to greatness whatsoever unless you manipulate the data further to exclude those kinds of guys. 
 

Edit: It’s why many are on the side that what matters most is the position these guys are drafted into. We would have ruined Mahomes. No question. Now? Maybe we could have helped him to see his potential 

Edited April 14 by Llevron

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

 

But then you look at the list of guys who are absurdly low, expecting it to show you a list of elite athletes and it’s guys like Davis Webb and Gardner Minshew and Carson Wentz. No reall correlation to greatness whatsoever unless you manipulate the data further to exclude those kinds of guys. 

To be fair, Minshew has carved out a fine career as a backup/fringe starter and just signed a pretty nice deal(for a player of his draft status). And Wentz before the injuries was an MVP caliber QB.

[Llevron]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

To be fair, Minshew has carved out a fine career as a backup/fringe starter and just signed a pretty nice deal(for a player of his draft status). And Wentz before the injuries was an MVP caliber QB.

There are more names, I just liked those. Point is they both were at the very top of that statistic and they help to prove, along with many people at the bottom of it, that success has multiple other factors. 

[Ghost of]

Skinsinparadise

 

Can you post JJ's numbers from the QBASE article since it places mccarthy above Maye?

[Dah-Dee]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

Skinsinparadise

 

Can you post JJ's numbers from the QBASE article since it places mccarthy above Maye?

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6

MEAN PROJECTION	0.20 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	45.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	17.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	10.1%

 

 

McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

Skinsinparadise

 

Can you post JJ's numbers from the QBASE article since it places mccarthy above Maye?

 

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6

MEAN PROJECTION	0.20 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	45.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	17.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	10.1%

McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).

 

https://x.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1778766464125645287