The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[zCommander]

33 minutes ago, jg77 said:

Maye is big but those dudes are another level. Maye doesn't have the rushing ability that Josh Allen has.

 

Are you sure about this? Josh Allen had 767 rushing yards in his college career (3 years). Maye had 1147 in 2 years. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

50 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I am convinced agents pay clown show so called pundits like Simms to pump up their players.

They pay everybody, either with cold hard cash, "business expenses"  or exchange of information.  

 

Bram has actually talked about this on the air a few times, and in this regard, I WOULD count him as an expert, given that he worked for ESPN for a decade, knows all of these people, knows the industry, was a SportsCenter anchor and actually is a professor of sports journalism at (I think?) American University, his alma matter.  While I think his ability to judge a good QB is pretty putrid (he loves Fields, which disqualifies anybody for having any further opinions), in the sports journalism media realm, I'd consider him an expert without any question.  

 

He said he had absolutely no interest in ever being a Schefter/Rappaport type because of the way information is bartered and exchanged.  And in order to get information from people, you have to essentially do them favors.  It's a bartering system, I think was the word he used. You scratch my back, I'll scratch your back.  

 

I don't think any of the reporters are immune from this reality, but there is definitely a scale.  Schefter, Rappaport, Woj in the NBA, I'm not sure who in MLB anymore, these guys have the loudest microphone, so they have the biggest exchanges. And it's baked into the cost of doing business they are going to report narratives from time to time. 

 

Which is why Schefter actually pushes narratives all the time.  You have to listen carefully, between what he reports and what he conjectures.  The conjectures actually rarely come true.  The reports are always true.  The glaring example is "Washington might jump in on Kirk Cousins." Literally everybody knew that was Kirk's agent trying to get the team with the most salary cap space linked to Kirk to help with contract negotiations.  It was so transparent, and had no truth to it.  But he did a whole song and dance about it.  Why?  Because of some quid pro quo with Kirk's agent.

 

Honestly, my biggest takeaway from the last 3 months is Drake Maye looks like he selected a bad agent.   

 

Simms is somewhat different to me, because I don't think he's remotely credible, he's just a shock jock personality nobody should really pay attention to, but do because people are stupid.

 

Is there a smoke screen going on?  I have no idea. 

 

I just don't believe any of the reporting leading up to the draft in any direction. From anybody.  

 

It might turn out to be true.  

 

It might not.  

 

We'll see in 3 weeks.

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

You can pick apart anyone though for not being 100%.  But the idea that Schefter is often wrong is an impossible point to make.

I didn't say he was right OR wrong.

 

I said he reports what he is paid to report.  

 

Either in cash or favors.  

 

This is the truth, the whole truth and the only truth.

 

And his projections about what might happen often are wrong.  His actual reporting is never wrong.  And there is a difference.  

[jg77]

7 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Are you sure about this? Josh Allen had 767 rushing yards in his college career (3 years). Maye had 1147 in 2 years. 

 

Now do passing stats. I'm pretty sure Maye blows him out the water on that too. Several QBs would cause Allen is a unicorn. 

 

Allen is a rare find.

[Anselmheifer]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah he was talking about his mechanics are consistent from throw to throw.  He also met him at some QB camp or something like that and was impressed with his makeup and how coachable he was and eager to learn.

 

He had some concerns about how little he threw on the 2nd level.  And didn't think he had a big time fastball as to his arm.  But otherwise he was very high on him. He thought slam dunk top 3 pick.

 

He was OK with Maye but had concerns about his consistency as to his machanics.  It changed too much for him from throw to throw and at times he had a hitch that slowed his delivery.  He liked the size and wow plays.  He came off like Maye was the bigger wildcard.  But he also said that if he committs to the task he felt that he can fix his mechanics -- he didn't say that was slam dunk but was optimisitic.

 

But overall I was impressed with his humility.  He made the point that its hard to translate college QBs to the pros and he's gotten some wrong.  And projecting that this or that will translate to the pros isn't easy.  

 

Simms on the other hand comes off so sure of himself, surprised he's not making billions doing draft evaluations for teams.  

Jayden does have a beautiful release and mechanics. 
 

I want Maye. But, even at his pro day, there is just something funny about his release. It almost looks as if he throws off his back foot without transferring weight as a matter of habit. His throwing shoulder very commonly does not rotate forward and his non throwing shoulder remains in front. 
 

Regarding Daniels’ work ethic, I find the discussion more worrisome than reassuring. It sounds like he just found his work ethic this year. What happens when he’s a top 3 pick and multi-millionaire? 

[Voice_of_Reason]

37 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

The JD5 hate/distrust on here is bizarre  You go on to say none of it is personal yet you're going to change the channel everytime he runs the ball? 

I don't see any hate to Daniels.

 

There are like 8 of us that kindof prefer Maye over Daniels but also would be thrilled with both.

 

I think the "hate" you sense is a pushback to the "it's a done deal, Daniels is clearly the best, there shouldn't be a discussion, case closed" approach of some of the most ardent Daniels supporters.  Which, frankly, is off-putting.  

 

But I don't think there is any hate towards Daniels.

[Tress Is The Way]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don't see any hate to Daniels.

 

There are like 8 of us that kindof prefer Maye over Daniels but also would be thrilled with both.

 

I think the "hate" you sense is a pushback to the "it's a done deal, Daniels is clearly the best, there shouldn't be a discussion, case closed" approach of some of the most ardent Daniels supporters.  Which, frankly, is off-putting.  

 

But I don't think there is any hate towards Daniels.

Exactly. If Daniels is the guy AP wants then lets roll. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is a W in the record column.

[mistertim]

27 minutes ago, jg77 said:

I don't think he's bad. I just think Daniels is the better choice with much less to work on.

 

I'm leary on QBs who main issue is throwing the football. Throwing motion, footwork, etc...he has to clean that stuff up. 

 

And I'm leery of QBs who didn't have to throw many 2nd level tight window balls or with much anticipation in college. Those things are incredibly important in the NFL and Daniels hasn't shown the ability to do them consistently. Doesn't mean he can't, but it's still a concern.

 

So they both have issues throwing the football. Maye's footwork is inconsistent and can get sloppy but he has tons of tape of him making those tight window 2nd level and anticipation throws. Daniels has very good and consistent footwork but lacks much tape of making those throws.

 

They both have plenty to work on. (Like pretty much every college QB coming into the NFL).

Edited April 4 by mistertim

[jg77]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

And I'm leery of QBs who didn't have to throw many 2nd level tight window balls or with much anticipation in college. Those things are incredibly important in the NFL and Daniels hasn't shown the ability to do them consistently. Doesn't mean he can't, but it's still a concern.

 

So they both have issues throwing the football. Maye's footwork is inconsistent and can get sloppy but he has tons of tape of him making those tight window 2nd level and anticipation throws. Daniels has very good and consistent footwork but lacks much tape of making those throws.

 

They both have plenty to work on. (Like pretty much every college QB coming into the NFL).

 

Fair enough.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

9 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don't see any hate to Daniels.

 

There are like 8 of us that kindof prefer Maye over Daniels but also would be thrilled with both.

 

I think the "hate" you sense is a pushback to the "it's a done deal, Daniels is clearly the best, there shouldn't be a discussion, case closed" approach of some of the most ardent Daniels supporters.  Which, frankly, is off-putting.  

 

But I don't think there is any hate towards Daniels.

So calling him a skinnier RG3 and a bust/injury waiting to happen is no hate to daniels. The sentiment here very clearly favors Maye, not kind of prefer Maye over daniels but would be thrilled with both

[88Comrade2000]

14 minutes ago, jg77 said:

 

Now do passing stats. I'm pretty sure Maye blows him out the water on that too. Several QBs would cause Allen is a unicorn. 

 

Allen is a rare find.

Allen is good but not great.  
 

There’s really only one great qb right now, Mahomes and he has 3 rings to support that.

 

Burrow , Allen, Jackson don’t.

[CommanderInTheRye]

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yep and he's like that on other positions too.  I was just a bit surprised he doubled down on it that hard.  Came off really harsh. 

 

I was watching the QB school guy last night too, he's also a Daniels > Maye guy and didn't come off that sold on Maye.  But still, he talked about Maye's upside and thought some of his issues could be fixed.  

 

But what i appreciated about the QB school guy, O'Sullivan, who if I recall was a backup QB in the league, he had some humility about his takes.  He talked about getting some wrong in the past.  And he admitted he has some bias towards Daniels because he knows him some and believes in his makeup.

 

One point that he made which I appreciated because I've argued the same point over the years with others which is these QBs don't all have the same work ethic.  Far from it.  And a needle mover as to fixing anything (and he talked about this is the context of Maye fixing his mechanics) is are they willing to put in the time.  Some he says do it.  Many he believes don't. 

 

But overall he had a lot of humility.  Simms to me comes off like his points are fact.  He used to come off humble to me at times but no more.

 

 

 

 

"But what i appreciated about the QB school guy, O'Sullivan, who if I recall was a backup QB in the league..."

 

Yeah, that's really a good vid. It's disappointing that more haven't taken the time to watch it.

 

I think that's partially because it's longer than most vids  but I think the biggest reason is because he leans towards Daniels and this is clearly a pro Maye forum (absolutely nothing wrong with that), but the truth is I try to listen to knowledgeable professional evaluators on both sides of the debate, more to learn their criteria and methods for evaluating college qbs and the things that they value or discount.

 

I don't really care who they choose as their preferred qb.

 

I don't even care who other posters here have chosen as their top qb candidate. What I do care about is how posters here think, evaluate, and analyze things, and most importantly, that they offer their views in a civil manner and respect those who disagree with them.

 

That's why I comfortably up vote people with different conclusions than mine.

 

Hell, there was a good rational and respectful argument the other day between two members on opposite sides of the qb debate. I was so impressed I upvoted both of them.

 

What I hate to see here, from either side, are the occasional nasty, mean spirited, jibes that basically are the adult equivalent of a child saying, "I'm right, you're wrong, everyone knows it and you're just too dumb to realize it!"

 

Getting back to the video...

 

"...he had some humility about his takes. He talked about getting some wrong in the past."

 

Yes, this!

 

It was when he discussed, in soulful, heartbreaking, terms, how much, even to this day his failed evaluation of Herbert, still haunts him that I spiritually woke up, and thought, this guy is really worth listening too.

 

He said that he keeps thinking about how confident, arrogant, and pridefully dismissive, he was of others opinions. 

 

At the time, he had no doubt  that Herbert had no chance to be anything more than a backup, or at best a below average NFL starter.

 

Yet Herbert turned into a 6' 6", defense destroying, unicorn, and despite his knowledge, experience, and countles hours spent in video review, he never even saw it coming.

 

This is a clear portrait of a proud man humbled and brought backbto earth-- this is an altogether  good thing.

 

He was humbled and perhaps a wee bit humiliated by his Herbert experience, and because of that, he wants to make sure that, this time, he doesn't make the same error again.

 

Drake Maye,  reminds him of his negative evaluation of Herbert. He thinks Maye is a player, who despite textbook physical traits, is just too inconsistent to be a viable top level starter in the league.

 

However, he realizes, thanks to his new found humility, that he could well be wrong, and the fear of repeating his previous mistake gives him pause.

 

Despite his gut telling him differently, he doesn't want to completely discount Drake, as he once did with a young Herbert-- because he just might be that unicorn we've all been hoping for...

 

 

 

 

 

.

Edited April 4 by CommanderInTheRye

[Dah-Dee]

33 minutes ago, Tress Is The Way said:

If Jayden's first read isn't open he blows out of the pocket with his legs.

 

This has been repeatedly debunked both by numerous 'expert' analysts and in this thread. I want Maye, but I see no good reason for the ridiculous exaggerations and unreasonable venom we see about Daniels in this thread.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I was hoping to find some correlation between HS prospect pedigree and NFL success. Well, hard to find any correlation. It's a bit all over the place. But given that this draft class is loaded with pedigree I dove in. I have always though HS pedigree / recruiting rank is one of the pillars to NFL success, along with college production and breakout age. Pedigree may not be as important as I thought, but I do think production and breakout age are important, and HS / recruiting pedigree certainly is a nice check-the-box for someone who has the other 2. It shows that a player was highly regarded coming in, and for the most part delivered in college, and has a good trajectory for development in the NFL. So here's what I found:

 

1. Caleb Williams - QB2 2021 (Ewers #1)

2. Drake Maye - QB4 2021

3. Jayden Daniels - QB2 2019

4. JJ McCarthy - QB6 2021

5. Michael Penix - QB66 2018

6. Bo Nix - QB3 2019

7. Spencer Rattler - QB1 2019

 

Some of the top young QBs in NFL (not in order)

1. Mahomes - QB47 2014

2. Burrow - QB15 2015

3. Lamar - QB18 2015

4. Lawrence - QB1 2018

5. Stroud - QB3 2020

6. Allen - Unranked

7. Tua - QB2 2017

8. Jalen Hurts - QB10 2016

9. Brock Purdy - QB50 2018

 

Other players drafted early-ish in recent years:

Zach Wilson - QB53 2018

Mitch Trubisky - QB4 2013

Will Levis - QB49 2018

Matt Corral - QB8 2018

Kenny Pickett - QB19 2017

Justin Fields - QB2 2018

Sam Howell - QB4 2019

Jarrett Sitdham - QB1 2015

Josh Rosen - QB2 2015

Kyler Murray - QB4 2015

Drew Lock - QB10 2015

Sam Darnold - QB13 2015

 

 

Jake Fromm was QB3 in 2017

Edited April 4 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Dah-Dee]

33 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think the "hate" you sense is a baffling response to any pushback to the "it's a done deal, Maye is clearly the best, there shouldn't be a discussion, case closed" approach of some of the most ardent Maye supporters.  Which, frankly, is off-putting.  

 

Fixed it for you. 😉

Edited April 4 by Dah-Dee

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Well, hard to find any correlation.

What you found is finding an NFL QB is a crap shoot, and basically takes luck and ritual sacrifices.

 

But really nifty analysis.  I hadn’t seen that before so I learned something new.  Thank you.  
 

This also might be the first view information posted in this thread for the last 180 pages….

[CommanderInTheRye]

6 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I was hoping to find some correlation between HS prospect pedigree and NFL success. Well, hard to find any correlation. It's a bit all over the place. But given that this draft class is loaded with pedigree I dove in. I have always though HS pedigree / recruiting rank is one of the pillars to NFL success, along with college production and breakout age. Pedigree may not be as important as I thought, but I do think production and breakout age are important, and HS / recruiting pedigree certainly is a nice check-the-box for someone who has the other 2. It shows that a player was highly regarded coming in, and for the most part delivered in college, and has a good trajectory for development in the NFL. So here's what I found:

 

1. Caleb Williams - QB2 2021 (Ewers #1)

2. Drake Maye - QB4 2021

3. Jayden Daniels - QB2 2019

4. JJ McCarthy - QB6 2021

5. Michael Penix - QB66 2018

6. Bo Nix - QB3 2019

7. Spencer Rattler - QB1 2019

 

Some of the top young QBs in NFL (not in order)

1. Mahomes - QB47 2014

2. Burrow - QB15 2015

3. Lamar - QB18 2015

4. Lawrence - QB1 2018

5. Stroud - QB3 2020

6. Allen - Unranked

7. Tua - QB2 2017

8. Jalen Hurts - QB10 2016

9. Brock Purdy - QB50 2018

 

Other players drafted early-ish in recent years:

Zach Wilson - QB53 2018

Will Levis - QB49 2018

Matt Corral - QB8 2018

Kenny Pickett - QB19 2017

Justin Fields - QB2 2018

Sam Howell - QB4 2019

 

 

Jake Fromm was QB3 in 2017

 

 

Great work.

 

Very impressed.

 

Makes no difference whether or not we find a correlation today. Who knows what might come from this tomorrow.

 

Knowledge and science is a group process that evolves over time.

 

Without Tycho Brahe's years of precise mathematical data showing the changing position of stars and planets over time. Kepler would never have been able to deduce that planets orbit the sun in elliptical patterns.

[RandyHolt]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

What you found is finding an NFL QB is a crap shoot, and basically takes luck and ritual sacrifices.

 

But really nifty analysis.  I hadn’t seen that before so I learned something new.  Thank you.  
 

This also might be the first view information posted in this thread for the last 180 pages….

I wish that OCs and their playbooks, OLs / supporting cast would be factored into how an NFL QB develops far more than it is.

 

One of my all time favorite fails was our own Jason "light me a candle" Campbell. Big long slow delivery expected to run West Coast and had Al Saunders 800 page playbook dumped on his lap.  Which he purged back to 400 pages IN YEAR 2.

 

I really think a lot of OCs caused their QB to fail more than the QB did themselves. The QB deemed a bust and the OC gets a QB coach gig in his next stop to ruin the next kid. OCs never take any of the blame nor get it, ever.

 

Say what we want about Ron but he seemed one of the first to truly cater his offense to his QBs strengths with Cam Newton.

 

 

 

Edited April 4 by RandyHolt

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I wish that OCs and their playbooks, OLs / supporting cast would be factored into how an NFL QB develops far more than it is.

 

One of my all time favorite fails was our own Jason "light me a candle" Campbell. Big long slow delivery expected to run West Coast and had Al Saunders 800 page playbook dumped on his lap.  Which he purged back to 400 pages IN YEAR 2.

 

I really think a lot of OCs caused their QB to fail more than the QB did themselves. The QB deemed a bust and the OC gets a QB coach gig in his next stop to ruin the next kid.

 

Say what we want about Ron but he seemed one of first to truly cater his offense to his QBs strengths with Cam Newton.

 

 

 

You're right that environment makes a big difference.

 

When I did my analysis on QB hit rate on QBs taken in strong QB draft classes, I joked that unless you're an expansion franchise or the Jets, you're probably gonna get a good QB if you draft one high in a strong class.

 

If Josh Allen went to the Jets and Sam Darnold went to the Bills, who knows how their careers turn out?

 

On the flip side, I think some guys are just special and would be great no matter what. And some guys are so bad they could be coached by a Bill Walsh/Andy Reid super hybrid and still suck.

 

One reason I'm so optimistic in our chances is because we're gonna pair a super talented prospect in Maye and put him in what should be a good environment. We went out and got reliable veteran skill players in Ertz and Ekeler and drastically improved the defense so he shouldn't have to carry the team early(should he have to start day 1).

[Jumbo]

Putting a link here to a thread I started in ATN cuz most of us refer frequently to NFL Network pundits/reporters. But keep any responses in that thread, don't add them here since it could lead to a lot if off topic discussion. 🙂 

 

 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Here is my final opinion.

 

Whatever QB you like, I don't.

[zCommander]

59 minutes ago, jg77 said:

 

Now do passing stats. I'm pretty sure Maye blows him out the water on that too. Several QBs would cause Allen is a unicorn. 

 

Allen is a rare find.

 

The Bills put together a playoff roster in his 3rd year at the helm. What has Allen has done even with a playoff roster around him? He is not an elite QB. 

[Jumbo]

1 hour ago, BayouBrave86 said:

 

 

The JD5 hate/distrust on here is bizarre

 

 

 

People who grossly or sweepingly mis characterize discussion here in demeaning manner, especially when they're not an established participant in this forum, may be flagged for trolling the forum in general.

 

If the discussion isn't up to your standards, leave.

 

I suggest you elevate the standard of your own posting if you do like to participate here. 🙂 

[Warhead36]

12 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

The Bills put together a playoff roster in his 3rd year at the helm. What has Allen has done even with a playoff roster around him? He is not an elite QB. 

That's crazy. Allen is absolutely elite. If he isn't then I don't know who is. He's not Mahomes sure, but you can legitimately argue he's 2nd. Without a doubt he's top 5. His peers being Burrow and Jackson, maybe Stroud.

[Tress Is The Way]

17 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

Here is my final opinion.

 

Whatever QB you like, I don't.

[Dah-Dee]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Honestly, my biggest takeaway from the last 3 months is Drake Maye looks like he selected a bad agent.   

 

I have seriously wondered about this! I know that a lot of the Daniels media coverage is because of the Heisman, and so we've heard a lot about the backstory on his 2023 season, e.g., work ethic. Whoever Daniels has working the media, they're doing a great job. 

 

I don't understand, though, why we haven't seen similar stories about Maye. For example, we've seen allusions/references to his work ethic, but no details. I have absolutely no doubt that Maye is a football junkie who pores over film, but his agent/team is doing a crap job of getting more info on that kind of thing out there as a response to similar coverage on Daniels. 

 

One theory, I suppose, might be that Maye's team knows he's going either 2 or 3 and feels no need to feed the hype. But it's still annoying lol.