The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[illone]

Mark Schlereth on JJ: (starts around 3:30)

 

 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Not that there's anything wrong with turning a #2OA into a compensatory 3rd rounder 3 years later...

[illone]

3 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Not that there's anything wrong with turning a #2OA into a compensatory 3rd rounder 3 years later...

 

#winning

 

Good ole ron doesnt even realize he put the reverse hex on the Daniels kid. I can hear the whispers from here:  "Rivera likes JD, move him to the 2nd round on the big board"

[clskinsfan]

20 minutes ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

That list is better than most. Especially he got Allen, Burrow and Stroud completely right. Maye could be the 2018 Sam Darnold. 

Could be. Or he could be incredible. Point is Simms is no better than anyone else at the guessing game that is drafting QB's. Some hit, some miss and some are utter failures. 

[Commander202]

Possible that Demarcus Lawrence gets released by Dallas . Just speculation but with all these teams making moves I can see Dallas letting him go. 

[clskinsfan]

Caleb Williams vs. Andrew Luck & Trevor Lawrence (Film Breakdown) | The QB Room

Jordan Palmer and Kyle Allen break it down. talk about importance of taking what they give you. Touch on how drafting first round QB's is about projecting what a player will become at the NFL level. Not what they currently are at the College level. 

 

 

[Birdlives]

Sorry for stupid questions but my attention in this team dropped off significantly until the sale. Already I’ve heard Peters likes Maye, and today that they told a team asking about trades that they were staying at 2 and to “look somewhere else for a trade”. It’s March, is this all bull****? There’s no way they’d project their intentions this far out, right?

[redskinss]

1 minute ago, Birdlives said:

is this all bull****?

 

Yes

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

That list is better than most. Especially he got Allen, Burrow and Stroud completely right. Maye could be the 2018 Sam Darnold. 

 

Depends on what you focus on.  Matt Corral going top 15, he had Willis in the first too.  Josh Rosen >> Mayfield and Lamar Jackson.  Zach Wilson > Lawrence and Fields.  Kellen Mond > Fields.  Haskins > Daniel Jones.  None of that makes him look good.

 

And then he has some stuff that indeed makes him look good.

 

Not a heck of a lot different than any of the other anaylsts.  

23 minutes ago, Birdlives said:

Sorry for stupid questions but my attention in this team dropped off significantly until the sale. Already I’ve heard Peters likes Maye, and today that they told a team asking about trades that they were staying at 2 and to “look somewhere else for a trade”. It’s March, is this all bull****? There’s no way they’d project their intentions this far out, right?

 

It's entertainment -- rumors.  We are a long way IMO from anything serious.

[88Comrade2000]

3 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Yeah Peters can’t be one and done based on this draft alone. That’s crazy talk. We got to stick with him.

Unless all his draft picks are busts, Peters would survive a bust at qb and would get a second swing at it.

 

Peters likely to be here longer than Quinn, if things don’t work out at qb.

[dunfer]

25 minutes ago, Birdlives said:

Sorry for stupid questions but my attention in this team dropped off significantly until the sale. Already I’ve heard Peters likes Maye, and today that they told a team asking about trades that they were staying at 2 and to “look somewhere else for a trade”. It’s March, is this all bull****? There’s no way they’d project their intentions this far out, right?

projecting that its going to take something absurd for them to consider considering

[88Comrade2000]

Ron wouldn’t know a qb, if one hit him in the face.

[FootballZombie]

Took the time to listen to that long format Simms vid for the 3 QBs I care about.

 

Caleb and Jayden breakdowns go about how you would expect given how much he has liked those guys in the past week or so. A lot to like and a couple areas they are special in. Has WIlliams as his unquestioned #1, loves him to bits.

 

Maye... I've never seen a professional evaluator hammer Maye to that degree. Absolutely savaged him over a lack of consistency accuracy and mechanics. If you have any love for the guy, its hard to hear cuz he goes pretty hard.

 

 

He spends like 20 Mins or more on each of the big 3 so he has the time to explain why he feels they way he does vs some quick comment drive by.

[illone]

It depends on the rest of the draft picks. 
 

if this roster turns into a San Fran lookalike, but is a QB away in a few years, no way GMAP is sent packing. 
 

He gets at least 2-3 bites at the apple to resolve QB. 
 

not a fair comparion, but paddle boat got what, five chances at QB?

 

Howell, Wentz, Fitz, Heine, Im missing someone…

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

That list is better than most. Especially he got Allen, Burrow and Stroud completely right. Maye could be the 2018 Sam Darnold. 

 

Burrow pick was about as obvious as their could be. He had the best college season ever. He was the most polished QB prospect since Luck, and before that Peyton. 100% of draft media also got that pick right.

 

Allen was a great call though, that draft had wildly different views about who was the top QB.

 

Stroud was also good, except it felt a bit like draft media knew Bryce Young was going #1 overall so simply put him ahead of Stroud simply to not be wrong when draft day came around.

 

When you put it in context it feels less like Simms was Nostradamus. That said his whole 2020 QB draft order might have been nailed. Still too early to say given Jordan Love just had his first season. But Burrow > Herbert > Love > Tua could be how their NFL careers shake out in 5 years time.

[DogofWar1]

OKAY

I went through every QB drafted from 2011 through 2020 and placed them on a 1-7 scale.  Why 2011 to start?  First year of rookie pay scale.  Why end 2020?  Last year of drafted players who have had an opportunity to be extended/get new contracts in some form.

 

Scale

1 - Generational
2 - Elite Franchise
3 - Decent Franchise
4 - Starter...at least for a while
5 - Not consistent starter, high money backup/spot starter
6 - Backup
7 - Washout

 

Some guys I ranked across a couple rankings bc they evolved.  Most got worse except for Geno Smith, who decided to spend 9 years as a backup and then ball out in his 30's.  Good for him.

On my spreadsheet I took the highest score tho.

 

Raw Data below.  Format is:

Scale Score - Name - Pick # if picked in first

 

 

 

So if anyone has major problems with any QB's ranking then have at it.

 

And here is the spreadsheet

 

 

So the numbers, what do they mean?

 

Top 10 - Elite (1-2) 31.8%, Starter (3) 31.8%, Bust (4-7) 36.3%

Rest of First - Elite 10%, Starter 20%, Bust 70%

2nd - Elite 10%, Starter 50%, Bust 40% -- This is bolstered a bit by Jimmy G. and Geno Smith

3rd - Elite 7.7%, Starter 0%, Bust 92.3%

4th - Elite 11.7%, Starter 0%, Bust 88.2%

5th - Elite 0%, Starter 0%, Bust 100%

6th - Elite 0%, Starter 5.8%, Bust 94.2%

7th - Elite 0%, Starter 0%, Bust 100%

 

So if you pick a QB in the top 10, you've got a 2/3rds chance of getting at least a starting level guy, and a 1/3 chance of getting real elite play.

 

Outside of top 10, you've still got okay odds, rest of the 1st is only 30% non-bust but obviously the really good ones go early, and 60% hit rate in the 2nd is real good (though that's boosted a bit by Jimmy G and Geno Smith suddenly realizing how to play, and they're both iffy at "starters").  Even if we pushed them down, it's still a 40% hit rate for the 2nd.

 

The biggest thing of note is that outside the top 10, there is much less elite talent.  7 of 12 elite players are from the top 10, and outside the top 10 it's spread out sorta randomly.  So if you want elite talent you generally need to pick top 10 guys.  Pick 11-64 guys will hit as starters 50ish% of the time, but will not be elite guys generally speaking.

 

Beyond that, it's throwing darts while blindfolded for rounds 3 and 4 and hoping you're lucky, and nobody succeeds from round 5-7 (maybe Purdy will change that, but it still ain't good).

And yes I did this at work today.  Why do work when can crunch football stat numbers?

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Commander202 said:

Possible that Demarcus Lawrence gets released by Dallas . Just speculation but with all these teams making moves I can see Dallas letting him go. 

 

He's not nearly the pass rusher he was, but he is valuable to them. He does a great job playing opposite Micah Parsons and keeping the QB penned in on that side for other pass rushers to have better shots at the QB. He's also their best Edge at run defense by far.

 

If they got rid of him, I think their Front 4 play noticeably worse. Or it could mean Dallas thinks Lawrence is starting to get washed up and his effectiveness will wake quickly. He has had some bad back injuries.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

So Simms just released his annual rankings, which I was kinda waiting for because he usually gets the top ones right and has good, unfiltered insights throughout. So even if you disagree, he's exhaustive about what he's seeing and how he got to where he is with his rankings.

I knew he liked JD and had been critical of Maye, but wow...

 

He's got Maye as the #6 QB prospect behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy. He acknowledges the athleticism, talent, and potential, but says there's not enough refinement to project him right now as a franchise QB.

They keep the QB he's currently talking about at the bottom of the screen, so it's easy to navigate if you want to jump around.

[Redskinscub]

The last time we had a ex Cowboy coach, we drafted Heath Shuler, hoping for better luck this time around

[kingdaddy]

6 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

So Simms just released his annual rankings, which I was kinda waiting for because he usually gets the top ones right and has good, unfiltered insights throughout. So even if you disagree, he's exhaustive about what he's seeing and how he got to where he is with his rankings.

I knew he liked JD and had been critical of Maye, but wow...

 

He's got Maye as the #6 QB prospect behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy. He acknowledges the athleticism, talent, and potential, but says there's not enough refinement to project him right now as a franchise QB.

They keep the QB he's currently talking about at the bottom of the screen, so it's easy to navigate if you want to jump around.

These QB's are a crapshoot, history shows most of them will bust. We can't afford a bust at #2 overall like what's happening in Carolina. Trade back and take the risk later in the draft, get the motherload offer and draft more players! Ask the Jets....Panthers....Niners.....Falcons.....NYG........Patriots. Learn from history.

[RWJ]

 

 

 

 

 

[FootballZombie]

2 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

These QB's are a crapshoot, history shows most of them will bust. We can't afford a bust at #2 overall like what's happening in Carolina. Trade back and take the risk later in the draft, get the motherload offer and draft more players! Ask the Jets....Panthers....Niners.....Falcons.....NYG........Patriots. Learn from history.

 

Gotta stand up to the mugger Bruh

 

[kingdaddy]

Just now, FootballZombie said:

 

Gotta stand up to the mugger Bruh

 

Living in fear vs living in analytics and percentages. Last two #2 overall picks for Washington: RGlll, Chase Young. We'll see how this goes. Faith in our staff.

[Rolo Tomasie]

48 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

So Simms just released his annual rankings, which I was kinda waiting for because he usually gets the top ones right and has good, unfiltered insights throughout. So even if you disagree, he's exhaustive about what he's seeing and how he got to where he is with his rankings.

I knew he liked JD and had been critical of Maye, but wow...

 

He's got Maye as the #6 QB prospect behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy. He acknowledges the athleticism, talent, and potential, but says there's not enough refinement to project him right now as a franchise QB.

They keep the QB he's currently talking about at the bottom of the screen, so it's easy to navigate if you want to jump around.

Huh.....I watched it and thought I'd be seeing clips of plays to back up his pretty unique assertions......no clips, just talk. Pretty wild. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

54 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

So Simms just released his annual rankings, which I was kinda waiting for because he usually gets the top ones right and has good, unfiltered insights throughout. So even if you disagree, he's exhaustive about what he's seeing and how he got to where he is with his rankings.

I have exactly the opposite opinion of Simms.  I think mosy of his takes have been wrong and he’s a headline grabbing shock jock moron.

 

I haven’t watched the piece, I won’t, I have no idea what it says.  
 

But he’s most likely wrong because he’s not trying to be right.  He’s trying to be relevant