The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

14 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Here's  a list of gems since 1990 taken in the early first round:

 

Andre Ware, #7 (1990)

Rick Mirer,   #2 (1993)

Trent Dilfer, #6 (1994)

Akili Smith,  #3 (1999)

Tim Couch, #1  (1999)

Joey Harrington, #2 (2001)

David Carr, #1   (2002)

Vince Young, #3 (2006)

Sam Bradford, #1 (2010)

Blake Bortles  #8 (2011)

Mitch Trubisky, #2 (2017)

Zach Wilson,   #2 (2021)

Trey Lance, #3 (2021)

Because other positions don't have busts right?

[mh86]

13 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Here's  a list of gems since 1990 taken in the early first round:

 

Andre Ware, #7 (1990)

Rick Mirer,   #2 (1993)

Trent Dilfer, #6 (1994)

Akili Smith,  #3 (1999)

Tim Couch, #1  (1999)

Joey Harrington, #2 (2001)

David Carr, #1   (2002)

Vince Young, #3 (2006)

Sam Bradford, #1 (2010)

Blake Bortles  #8 (2011)

Mitch Trubisky, #2 (2017)

Zach Wilson,   #2 (2021)

Trey Lance, #3 (2021)

What’s the point here? There are certainly bombs in the first round, but probably way more in later rounds. Are you saying you’d rather trade down or not take a QB altogether and go for a one year rental plan to get to 8-9 and miss out on some more qbs that may or may not fail?

[illone]

Drakey

 

 

[veteranskinsfan]

My point here is just to curb some of the enthusiasm.  If Peters makes a wrong decision at quarterback how will this fan base react?  How will this Board

react?  Of course he makes the right pick at quarterback then the fan base and this Board will be riding a super high.  The draft in many ways is a crap shoot.

All teams are forced to take the good with the bad.  Historically our franchise has been bad when it comes to picking quarterbacks in the first round.

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

My point here is just to curb some of the enthusiasm.  If Peters makes a wrong decision at quarterback how will this fan base react?  How will this Board

react?  Of course he makes the right pick at quarterback then the fan base and this Board will be riding a super high.  The draft in many ways is a crap shoot.

All teams are forced to take the good with the bad.  Historically our franchise has been bad when it comes to picking quarterbacks in the first round.

I don't make decisions out of fear and I don't expect Peters to either.

[SoCalSkins]

13 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Here's  a list of gems since 1990 taken in the early first round:

 

Andre Ware, #7 (1990)

Rick Mirer,   #2 (1993)

Trent Dilfer, #6 (1994)

Akili Smith,  #3 (1999)

Tim Couch, #1  (1999)

Joey Harrington, #2 (2001)

David Carr, #1   (2002)

Vince Young, #3 (2006)

Sam Bradford, #1 (2010)

Blake Bortles  #8 (2011)

Mitch Trubisky, #2 (2017)

Zach Wilson,   #2 (2021)

Trey Lance, #3 (2021)

Bortles was third overall not 8. 
 

Here is a list of all QBs picked in top 5 picks since 2008 that I posted earlier:

 

Bryce Young

CJ Stroud

Anthony Richardson

Trevor Lawrence

Zach Wilson

Trey Lance

Joe Burrow

Tua

Kyler Murray

Baker Mayfield 

Sam Darnold

Mitch Trubisky

Jared Goff

Wentz

Jamies Winston

Marriotta 

Blake Bortles

Andrew Luck

RG3

Cam Newton

Sam Bradford

Matthew Stafford 

Matt Ryan

 

Around 60% complete busts. 15% slightly above bust (Tua, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler). 15% good players (Stafford, Ryan, Cam) and 10% elite (Burrow, Luck). I excluded last years picks from the percentages since not enough data. (Bryce young bust for sure though).

 

So 1 in 10 chance to get a great one, although both elite players were first pick overall, and 15% chance to get a very good one. So around 1 in 4 chance we end up in a good place with QB at 2 based on last 15 years. 

[bird_1972]

16 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

I like Paulsen, but he and Smoot are homers of the highest order.  Ashburn Sydrome is their normal temperature.

 

I'd trust Brian Mitchell takes long before Paulsen, but I do agree that he might be pining for a coaching job.

 

He said as much in an interview around the time of the Quinn hire.

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

My point here is just to curb some of the enthusiasm.  If Peters makes a wrong decision at quarterback how will this fan base react?  How will this Board

react?  Of course he makes the right pick at quarterback then the fan base and this Board will be riding a super high.  The draft in many ways is a crap shoot.

All teams are forced to take the good with the bad.  Historically our franchise has been bad when it comes to picking quarterbacks in the first round.

 

As for me as long as he takes one of the top 3 QBs, perception wise, heck even the top 4 for me, I'll give him a pass.  There is crap shoot aspect to picking any player in the draft but especially so for QB.

 

If he does something unexpected like trading down and loses out on the top 4 and one of those guys kills it that he passed over and in turn we remain in QB purgatory, I'd want Peters gone.  One strike and he's out if it happens like that for me.  But I am not worried.  I think almost no chance it happens.

Edited March 6 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[NickyJ]

10 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

My point here is just to curb some of the enthusiasm.  If Peters makes a wrong decision at quarterback how will this fan base react?  How will this Board

react? 

We'll print out fancards and mail them in until the team reinstates Doug Williams as general manager.

[illone]

7 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

My point here is just to curb some of the enthusiasm.  If Peters makes a wrong decision at quarterback how will this fan base react?  How will this Board

react?  Of course he makes the right pick at quarterback then the fan base and this Board will be riding a super high.  The draft in many ways is a crap shoot.

All teams are forced to take the good with the bad.  Historically our franchise has been bad when it comes to picking quarterbacks in the first round.

 

 

Why you gotta curb peoples enthusiasm?

 

Every fan has a right to feel what they want. Enthusiasm, apathy or whatever. Plus we wont know if the QB decision is wrong for at least a year or two, maybe more.

 

I reserve the right to crack open the 1869 Château Lafite on draft day when JJ is selected...

 

[SoCalSkins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Reality is that Dan would not have hired him if he wasn’t going to give Haskins a chance. Same reason Kevin O’Connell wanted to bolt as OC. QB forced on a coach is never a recipe for success. 

[Warhead36]

Oh god as if ESPN couldn't get any worse lmfao

[mistertim]

20 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

My point here is just to curb some of the enthusiasm.  If Peters makes a wrong decision at quarterback how will this fan base react?  How will this Board

react?  Of course he makes the right pick at quarterback then the fan base and this Board will be riding a super high.  The draft in many ways is a crap shoot.

All teams are forced to take the good with the bad.  Historically our franchise has been bad when it comes to picking quarterbacks in the first round.

 

I'd much rather us swing and miss on a top QB prospect than do something mediocre and safe like trading back. If we swing for a home run and miss, then we miss and we start over again in a few years. Much better than swinging for a single and being mired in mediocrity for another decade.

Edited March 6 by mistertim

[woodpecker]

27 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

This is actually exactly why I prefer Maye over Daniels. At just 21 yo he has more upside for growth mentally and physically.

[Skinsinparadise]

So I guess Rivera is off the bandwagon of I found Sam Howell.  Granted he was off if for the last month of the season.  but for most of the season the joke with the local media was Rivera's mantra was yeah but i found Sam howell, case closed.

[FootballZombie]

30 minutes ago, illone said:

Drakey

 

 

 

C'mon man.

That video was like 30% Maye and 70% non-consequential rambling.

 

 

[Wyvern]

@SoCalSkins --  Nice list.  Just notng that if you added in years 2006 and 2008, you have two more busts ..Jamarcus Russell (1st overall), and Vince Young (3rd overall).

 

Even if you've got great evaluators, the draft results -- even when selecting in the top 5 -- are still a "roll of the dice." (One doesn't always make an easy point like eight or six.)

 

So even if the '20-something' QB prospect Washington selects doesn't work out, I'd still support the new GM who has a proven track record, and will eventually succeed in obtaining a very good to franchise level QB, along with a good supporting cast.  How he goes about is okay with me too, but I think until he upgrades the current Washington scouting and talent acquisition staff, he's probably going to avoid trading up and may even trade down in later rounds for more chances to find the hidden talents he's noted for being able to find.

Edited March 6 by Wyvern

[illone]

15 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Im comfortable with Maye at 2. This thread however made me question his decision making so I am not 100% sold. 
 

Someone posted a picture of him with his long time girlfriend here. This guy has been a legit elite NFL prospect for 2 years. I have been to Chapel Hill and the level of talent there is not insignificant. So for him to lock it in with her makes me question his confidence in himself and overall decision making. He needs to step up to AJ McCarron or Ryan Tannehill level in that department. 

 

I think that was me that posted that pic 🤣

 

9 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

C'mon man.

That video was like 30% Maye and 70% non-consequential rambling.

 

 

 

 

In my defense I posted it before I watched the whole thing.  It can't be worse than everything else we've taken the time to watch

 

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, Wyvern said:

@SoCalSkins --  Nice list.  Just notng that if you added in years 2006 and 2008, you have two more busts ..Jamarcus Russell (1st overall), and Vince Young (3rd overall).

 

Even if you've got great evaluators, the results are still a "roll of the dice." (One doesn't always make an easy point like eight or six.)

 

So even if the '20-something' QB prospect Washington selects doesn't work out, I'd still support the new GM who has a proven track record, and will eventually succeed in obtaining a very good to franchise level QB, along with a good supporting cast.  How he goes about is okay with me too, but I think until he upgrades the current Washington scouting and talent acquisition staff, he's probably going to avoid trading up and may even trade down in later rounds for more chances to find the hidden talents he's noted for being able cut find.

I stopped at 2008 because that gave me a nice even 20 picks to work with by excluding last year. The math was easier with 20 and no calculator needed! 😂 

 

We have to draft QB more often not less. It’s a numbers game and you have to keep trying until you hit. We totally agree on that. 

[mistertim]

28 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

C'mon man.

That video was like 30% Maye and 70% non-consequential ramblin

 

 

Unfortunately it seems like that's closer to the rule than the exception with YouTube breakdown videos. I think part of it is because (IIRC) you get more search results/traffic/monetization/whatever, if people watch over a certain length of video, especially they watch all the way to the end. So creators will sometimes have about 1-2 minutes worth of actual meaningful content and then another10 minutes of aimless rambling and stringing that 1-2 minutes out so you keep watching.

Edited March 6 by mistertim

[illone]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Unfortunately it seems like that's closer to the rule than the exception with YouTube breakdown videos. I think part of it is because (IIRC) you get more search results/traffic/monetization/whatever, if people watch over a certain length of video, especially they watch all the way to the end. So creators will sometimes have about 1-2 minutes worth of actual meaningful content and then another10 minutes of aimless rambling and stringing that 1-2 minutes out so you keep watching.

 

 

So true. Plus the thumbnail and headline are intentional. 

 

Click grab.

[Skinsinparadise]

More grain of salt rumorville, pure entertainment, not serious

 

I'll give Walterfootball one thing, they used to know nothing.  Now on a occasion they get a nugget or two but they are still more miss than hit

 

 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, veteranskinsfan said:

If Peters makes a wrong decision at quarterback how will this fan base react?  How will this Board

react? 

I will shrug my shoulders and say "Oh well. Try again". We arent wasting any draft resources to make this pick. It is one draft pick for a chance at a blue chip QB. You have to make it. If he misses he misses. You try again in a couple of years like the Bears are now.