The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah, I understand the statistical viewpoint, and the data does matter. But IMO you can't treat it like a Moneyball situation in baseball because QB is such a ridiculously valuable position compared to all others on a football team. Kicking the QB can down the road in the belief that stockpiling picks will eventually land you a franchise guy somehow is a really good way to have a mediocre at best team and get fired.

Yeah Im with you. You gotta take the QB when hes there. You can have ten picks but if its like 2022 and noone is worth taking its useless.

[Ghost of]

13 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Keeps looking good from metrics and mental makeup test for McCarthy. And keep in mind while Michigan's receivers are "good" they aren't Washington's or Malik Nabers. Loveland will play on Sundays at TE. Roman Wilson can make it but he's not Odunze. 

[Thinking Skins]

I just finished processing the sack numbers for college football and the results are beautiful. I want to put it into a graph format but its way different from what we see at PFR and most other sites. Finally I can see sacks different from rushing yards. And I can see who was getting sacked in college. I have it for every drafted QB (just about) going back to 2014. 

 

Some interesting things (and I can maybe see why Howell dropped)

The second most sacks in all of college football in a year was Howell in 2021 (47 for 275)

Now Jayden Daniels has 43 sacks in 2022 for 200 yards.

Lamar Jackson had 42 in 2016 for 289 yards. 

And Drake Maye had 40 sacks for 204 yards. 

 

I contrast that with a Justin Herbert who only had 20 sacks for 142 yards in 2018. 

 

There's a lot more. But this is a very interesting analytic I'm working on. 

Edited January 26 by Thinking Skins

[Warhead36]

18 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I just finished processing the sack numbers for college football and the results are beautiful. I want to put it into a graph format but its way different from what we see at PFR and most other sites. Finally I can see sacks different from rushing yards. And I can see who was getting sacked in college. I have it for every drafted QB (just about) going back to 2014. 

That would be some pretty interesting stuff to look at. Can we get a gist of the current crop?

[Thinking Skins]

13 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That would be some pretty interesting stuff to look at. Can we get a gist of the current crop?

Yeah I edited the post to contain some stuff. I am more confident in previous years. I have to look into the weeds of the data to make sure that the data set has the later games. But here's some of the stuff about the 2024 crop. 

 

This is all for the year for 2023, 

 

Caleb Williams has 31 sacks for -252 yards
Drake Maye has 24 sacks for -106 yards
Jayden Daniels has 20 sacks for -88 yards
J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for -97 yards
Michael Penix Jr. has 7 sacks  for -45 yards
Bo Nix  has 4 sacks for -23 yards 

 

Those Penix and Nix stats are really interesting and while others have posted sack numbers like that for a season while starting a whole season, I do want to check those numbers. 
 

 

And then this is for last year

 

2022 Caleb Williams has 29 sacks for -246 yards
2022 Drake Maye has 40 sacks for -204 yards
2022 Jayden Daniels has 43 sacks for -200 yards
2022 J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for -107 yards
2022 Michael Penix Jr. has 5 sacks for -38 yards
2022 Bo Nix has 4 sacks for -20 yards

 

Edited January 26 by Thinking Skins

[ThatNFLChick]

3 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yeah I edited the post to contain some stuff. I am more confident in previous years. I have to look into the weeds of the data to make sure that the data set has the later games. But here's some of the stuff about the 2024 crop. 

 

This is all for the year for 2023, 

 

Caleb Williams has 31 sacks for -252 yards
Drake Maye has 24 sacks for -106 yards
Jayden Daniels has 20 sacks for -88 yards
J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for -97 yards
Michael Penix Jr. has 7 sacks  for -45 yards
Bo Nix  has 4 sacks for -23 yards 

 

Those Penix and Nix stats are really interesting and while others have posted sack numbers like that for a season while starting a whole season, I do want to check those numbers. 
 

 

And then this is for last year

 

2022 Caleb Williams has 29 sacks for -246 yards
2022 Drake Maye has 40 sacks for -204 yards
2022 Jayden Daniels has 43 sacks for -200 yards
2022 J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for -107 yards
2022 Michael Penix Jr. has 5 sacks for -38 yards
2022 Bo Nix has 4 sacks for -20 yards

 

 

Thanks for this!

 

I heard Logan Paulsen talked about all 3 QBs this morning and gave his thoughts so gonna give that a listen soon

[The Consigliere]

14 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

Let's imagine you think Maye is a going to be a stud QB.  The Vikings call with a huge offer.  You turn them down because you THINK you have an elite QB for the next decade that will trump any offer.

 

Then you draft Maye, and he gets hurt in 1st or 2nd season (e.g. RGIII or Wentz).  Or you're just wrong, and the guy is never great.  Meanwhile somebody in the mid-first round of next years QB becomes great.

 

Even if you think the guy you are going to draft is great you can't ignore the value of having multiple picks to try and get the guy because people are wrong when they think they have the guy.  Essentially every team drafting a QB near the top thinks they are getting the guy.  Actually having a guy at QB is great, but just because you think Maye (or whoever at 2) is you can't ignore the value many picks in case you are wrong.  People don't like to do that, but if they're smart, they'll do it.  And passing on a really good deal would be a mistake no matter what they believe.

 

Since the post that started this specifically said 3 first round picks (3 first and 2 nds), then yes it could be a 2 first round picks in the next 3 years, and you'd still end up ahead (by 2 2nd round picks).  

 

You also can't just ignore lower picks because the return on lower round picks is low.  How many 5th round picks is the 2nd pick in the draft worth?  Even with a low return rate on QBs taken in the 5th round or later, a ton of picks is going to increase your chances.  The hit rate of getting a good QB at 2 is much higher than the 5th round or later.  But the 2nd round pick over all is going to be worth a ton of 5th round picks.

If somebody gives you the godfather offer, which they largely never do, you take it. If a team is a classic case of aging out, and desperate to stay competitive, and offers several, lets say non-consecutive firsts (I don't know the rules, Im just spit balling), lets say, '25, '27, and '29 firsts, plus the 11th, plus 3 2nds. Do I take it? yes. I would. Would anyone do that in this day and age? I tend to think no chance. But yes, I'd listen, and if the offer was basically a giant pile of firsts, some 2nds, plus a trade down this year of only 5-10 slots. Yeah, I'd do it. I agree, because at that level of stupidity, the caliber of bullets we'd get via the trade would be worth it. Maye or no Maye, the Vikes aren't jumping ahead of the best and brightest in the NFC over the next 4 years. They're not. So it would be worth it. I would not do the trade with a sneaky long term good team that just needs a QB, but I would with a team I think is picking top half of round 1, and probably top 10-12, sure, because, and here's the rub, we'd stay bad for another 2 drafts at least, and have the draft capital to address QB repeatedly.

 

The problem with this idea, though, is that it doesn't happen and it's not going to. The Vikes may want to move up, but what are they going to offer? It defeats their purpose to offer 4 or 5 firsts if it was legal, to throw in their outstanding young WR, Jordan Addison etc. It just doesn't make sense.

 

You are onto something I talked about in the past, when it comes to certain kinds of QB's, I would make godfather offers if I were the Vikes. I would've with Luck, I would've with Lawrence, I might with Williams, I wouldn't with Maye. So, sure, if its that dream offer, okay. But are we getting that offer of 3 future firsts, 3 seconds, Addison and the 11? Nope, and for me, it would require something ridiculous for me to say yes. Something close to that scale. Because the '25 class sucks, so I'd know, if I didn't hit with a second tier guy, I'd likely not even have a chance at a franchise guy until '26, which, doesn't make sense because at that point, w/so much draft capital, Addison, etc, we'd play our way out of the blue chip zone because the coach would be too tempted to go after a bridge QB that would help get us to 7-9 win seasons, and if Maye hits, the Vikes will be at least adequate so that pick wouldn't be blue chip either. 

 

It just doesn't really work. But would I do it if we could? yes. But I can't see the offer coming that would command such a yes. 

[The Consigliere]

14 hours ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Trade back so we can hoard a lot of picks…so we can trade up in another draft…to draft a QB. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

 

We had to have so much suck and luck to climb all the way to the number 2 pick. No way we trade down. I don’t care what the offer is. 
 

If we’re wrong, then of course there will be second guessing. But we can’t approach the draft with that mentality. 
 

 

Technically I could see it, if we loved JJ or Penix or Nix or knew Daniels was gonna fall and the offer was beyond ridiculous. I'm not doing it for any overpay we've seen recently, I would do it for 3 future firsts, a couple of day 2 picks, and like an Addision, sure, but who is offering that? No one, not even the Vikes, because you blow out your build anyway, as a Vikes GM, by gutting multiple future drafts and throwing away a cost controlled fantastic hit on a guy like Addison. Not happening.

 

The Watson example is close, but there are too many day 3 picks, and no valuable player asset coming back (and honestly, one of the reasons I wouldn't have done that as Cleveland was cost control of watson was over, so he wasn't nearly as valuable anyway). 

 

But the Watson trade is close to what I'd want. Just not close enough. 

[The Consigliere]

12 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

I'm not saying that you ignore scouting.  But you also can't act you're scouting is full proof.  To ignore that you could be wrong is ridiculous.  You can't ignore the simple statistics/math of the situation and based on most reasonable historical value that 3 first and 2 2's is extremely good value for the 2nd pick in the draft (when you take into account where the Vikings are drafting this year).  

 

Having 3 cracks at putting 1st round picks to the QB and still having 2 2nd round picks extra is attractive.  Especially when you look at where the QBs playing in the title game were picked.  

I don't disagree. Smart teams are aware that if the studies say quantity matters more than anything, that tells you just how inexact this is. Now with QB its even less exact. So thats fine. The problem with the strategy is that the end result is going to typically be, you never get the franchise QB period because you've traded your way out of the blue chip zone in the present and the future, and pushed your coach into "bridge QB" mode because the '25 class sucks, so unless you hit on your trade down QB like say, the Chargers did with Brees in '01, you're screwed. You've suddenly built, yet another, just good enough to not matter in the least team because you lack the QB, and especially the QB on a rookie deal cheat code. It's very attractive to do that, and I probably would have done such a trade in '19 or '20 because of how good the '20 and '21 classes were but in '24, looking at a blech class in '25? Not doing it. We will end up playing our way out of the generational dude sitting waiting in '26 if Maye busts. So no thanks. I much prefer taking Maye, and if he busts, imploding for Manning in '26 (being smart enough to trade for future picks this year and next in '26 to facilitate a '26 trade up and/or tank). 

 

But yeah, a big enough godfather offer and yeah, Id consider it. 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

The ability to draft Maye IS “The Godfather Offer”.  
 

You run to the podium and do it. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

23 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yeah I edited the post to contain some stuff. I am more confident in previous years. I have to look into the weeds of the data to make sure that the data set has the later games. But here's some of the stuff about the 2024 crop. 

 

This is all for the year for 2023, 

 

Caleb Williams has 31 sacks for -252 yards
Drake Maye has 24 sacks for -106 yards
Jayden Daniels has 20 sacks for -88 yards
J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for -97 yards
Michael Penix Jr. has 7 sacks  for -45 yards
Bo Nix  has 4 sacks for -23 yards 

 

Those Penix and Nix stats are really interesting and while others have posted sack numbers like that for a season while starting a whole season, I do want to check those numbers. 
 

 

And then this is for last year

 

2022 Caleb Williams has 29 sacks for -246 yards
2022 Drake Maye has 40 sacks for -204 yards
2022 Jayden Daniels has 43 sacks for -200 yards
2022 J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for -107 yards
2022 Michael Penix Jr. has 5 sacks for -38 yards
2022 Bo Nix has 4 sacks for -20 yards

 

 

 

Hmmm, so both Maye and Daniels improved enough to virtually cut in half  their gross sack totals from '22 to '23 while Caleb essentially replicated his previous year's numbers.

 

Interesting.

[Warhead36]

Maye taking fewer sacks despite his OL sucking and overall talent around him deteriorating is interesting.

[oraphus]

The most you can get in a trade is 3 future 1st rd picks i believe. But lets say someone does make a godfather offer with multitude of pics and players. I would be ok with trading for Fields for high 3rd or maybe 3, 5 as a reclamation project and drafting a QB or two mid first and later in the draft if you like them. Depending on what system Peters and Johnson decide to install.. if we follow the 49er model.. you could plug in any decent QB with high end results. 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

I just finished processing the sack numbers for college football and the results are beautiful. I want to put it into a graph format but its way different from what we see at PFR and most other sites. Finally I can see sacks different from rushing yards. And I can see who was getting sacked in college. I have it for every drafted QB (just about) going back to 2014. 

 

Some interesting things (and I can maybe see why Howell dropped)

The second most sacks in all of college football in a year was Howell in 2021 (47 for 275)

Now Jayden Daniels has 43 sacks in 2022 for 200 yards.

Lamar Jackson had 42 in 2016 for 289 yards. 

And Drake Maye had 40 sacks for 204 yards. 

 

I contrast that with a Justin Herbert who only had 20 sacks for 142 yards in 2018. 

 

There's a lot more. But this is a very interesting analytic I'm working on. 

 

Interesting stuff.  You can see a bit of that below (though no "yards" component).  Howell was glaringly bad when it came to this, which obviously carried over to the NFL.

 

 

[Warhead36]

5 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Interesting stuff.  You can see a bit of that below (though no "yards" component).  Howell was glaringly bad when it came to this, which obviously carried over to the NFL.

 

 

Howell....yeesh

 

But in general UNC appears to just always suck on the OL

[gooseneck]

53 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yeah I edited the post to contain some stuff. I am more confident in previous years. I have to look into the weeds of the data to make sure that the data set has the later games. But here's some of the stuff about the 2024 crop. 

 

This is all for the year for 2023, 

 

Caleb Williams has 31 sacks for -252 yards
Drake Maye has 24 sacks for -106 yards
Jayden Daniels has 20 sacks for -88 yards
J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for -97 yards
Michael Penix Jr. has 7 sacks  for -45 yards
Bo Nix  has 4 sacks for -23 yards 

 

Those Penix and Nix stats are really interesting and while others have posted sack numbers like that for a season while starting a whole season, I do want to check those numbers. 
 

 

And then this is for last year

 

2022 Caleb Williams has 29 sacks for -246 yards
2022 Drake Maye has 40 sacks for -204 yards
2022 Jayden Daniels has 43 sacks for -200 yards
2022 J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for -107 yards
2022 Michael Penix Jr. has 5 sacks for -38 yards
2022 Bo Nix has 4 sacks for -20 yards

 

Looks like we need to draft Nix and Oregon's offensive line.

[Thinking Skins]

That said, I'm still working on other parts of my analytic. Its amazing to be able to see this because I HATE that college ball puts rushing yards with sacks. But they are not the same. So I separated that. 

 

Anyway here's another look at the draft class and improvement 

 

2023 Caleb Williams has 31 sacks for  -252 yards
2022 Caleb Williams has 29 sacks for  -246 yards
2021 Caleb Williams has 20 sacks for  -121 yards

 

2023 Drake Maye has 24 sacks for  -106 yards
2022 Drake Maye has 40 sacks for  -204 yards
2021 Drake Maye has 1 sacks for  -4 yards

 

2022 Jayden Daniels has 43 sacks for  -200 yards
2023 Jayden Daniels has 20 sacks for  -88 yards
2021 Jayden Daniels has 25 sacks for  -166 yards
2019 Jayden Daniels has 29 sacks for  -162.0 yards

 

2023 J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for  -97 yards
2022 J.J. McCarthy has 12 sacks for  -107 yards
2021 J.J. McCarthy has 3 sacks for  -30 yards

 

2023 Michael Penix Jr. has 7 sacks for  -45 yards
2022 Michael Penix Jr. has 5 sacks for  -38 yards
2021 Michael Penix Jr. has 8 sacks for  -54 yards

 

2023 Bo Nix has 4 sacks for  -23 yards
2022 Bo Nix has 4 sacks for  -20 yards
2021 Bo Nix has 13 sacks for  -114 yards

2 minutes ago, gooseneck said:

Looks like we need to draft Nix and Oregon's offensive line.

I think that may have to do with the scheme more than anything. Its probably why Nix isn't as highly regarded. 

[mistertim]

So Penix, McCarthy, and Nix all faced relatively low pressure rates. Makes sense since all of those teams have really good OLs.

 

We saw what happened to Penix once he got seriously pressured vs Michigan. Wasn't pretty. That, his injury history, and his age could really make him drop in the draft.

 

I do like McCarthy in many ways, but being behind a dominant OL and in a system where he wasn't asked to do a ton makes me wonder what would happen if he goes to the NFL, is behind a mediocre OL, and is asked to be a franchise guy who can put a team on his back and win with his arm.

 

Nix I'm still a bit torn on. I've watched several cutups and there are some things I really like but some things I really don't. There's no doubt he has talent, but he was very underwhelming at Auburn and then broke loose when he transferred to Oregon. Does that mean it's the system helping him or did he just improve a ton on his own? Hard to say for sure.

Edited January 26 by mistertim

[Warhead36]

McCarthy has game manager traits. He won't suck in the NFL but his ceiling is probably like Alex Smith. Honestly if I'm the Dolphins I'd probably take him in the first round and trade Tua. McDaniel can make it work and you reset your rookie contract window.

[Thinking Skins]

Be warned. 0 is at the top and -350 is at the bottom. 

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Be warned. 0 is at the top and -350 is at the bottom. 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

Logan Paulsen on John Keim:

 

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

i'm just trying to make data more readable. I'm probably going to have a talk with sportsreference later today about this. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

17 hours ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Trade back so we can hoard a lot of picks…so we can trade up in another draft…to draft a QB. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

 

We had to have so much suck and luck to climb all the way to the number 2 pick. No way we trade down. I don’t care what the offer is. 
 

If we’re wrong, then of course there will be second guessing. But we can’t approach the draft with that mentality. 
 

 

 

 

Every message board for every NFL team is down to the 55-100 Boomers in each team's fan base who still post to message boards.

 

And 60 percent of those Boomers are trying to recreate the Herschel Walker trade as they have done since 1992. Every person who plays fantasy GM plays the exact same cover song - The Herschel Walker Trade.

 

The Herschel Walker Trade is the NFL equivalent of Wagon Wheel or Hallelujah. You stay at the talent contest long enough, you're going to hear it.

 

Anyway, no one actually understand the Herschel Walker deal or how it worked so they all try to recreate the wrong way. The Vikings did not trade a million picks for Walker. They tradedd a million players for Walker and stupidly assigned each player a draft pick value if they were cut prior to the draft. The Vikings didn't even really understand this clause in the trade. So when Johnson cut all the players, the Cowboys got a bunch of draft picks. 

 

So anyway, presuming you can get a desperate team to make a desperate trade and then con them on the legal details and suddenly end up with a bunch of picks in the future.

 

All the fantasy GMs are going to try to turn each of those picks into a Herschel Walker trade.

 

The goal of every fantasy GM is to have 26 first round picks in the draft two years from now, which you can trade for all the first round picks in the draft four years from now..

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Be warned. 0 is at the top and -350 is at the bottom. 

 You're a bad person and that's utterly unreadable.

[KDawg]

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Be warned. 0 is at the top and -350 is at the bottom. 

I’m not entirely sure what this is, but it’s intoxicating