The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

16 hours ago, skinzplay said:

With an OL put together by a competent FO, I think we see the real Howell. This year was too much like his last year in Chapel Hill, but WORSE, thanks to RR's ineptitude in addressing the OL.

That's gonna take another 2 years, I don't think he has that kind of time. 

[profusion]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

Not exactly what I meant. Of course guys get evaluated, just that it's not happening just now.

 

But that's what I assume Shen was brought in to do and I assume *is* doing right now. If you mean whether the coaching staff is evaluating him, then I agree. They're probably all working on their own highlights packages right now!

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

What would be the case for keeping Sam as a starter ? Honestly? He looked good for like 4 games? An unbiased analytically inclined GM is going to look at the whole picture and imo, not really be all that impressed other than that he seems to always get up after he gets sacked a bunch. 
 

His numbers (box score and advanced) are middling at best and trending towards bad. He was just benched and had his biggest fan admit he probably wouldn’t be playing if the games were meaningful. The GM would have no ties to Sam. They’ll likely end the season losing 8 in a row. What would be the realistic case for keeping Sam over drafting your own QB (and their cheaper for longer contract) ? Only thing I could think of is if you end up picking 7th or later and even then, I think there’s potentially for them to draft a guy that will likely at least compete with Sam. 

The only reason you keep Howell is if you truly and genuinely don't believe any of the QBs that are available when you pick are any good. I find that hard to believe given the pedigree of some of the guys, but it is possible(remember the vaunted 2021 QB class, the only guy who has looked any good is the guy that was taken #1 overall in Lawrence and even he hasn't really lit it up the way people thought he would).

 

But at this point yeah you gotta reset and start over.

[Koolblue13]

9 minutes ago, profusion said:

 

But that's what I assume Shen was brought in to do and I assume *is* doing right now. If you mean whether the coaching staff is evaluating him, then I agree. They're probably all working on their own highlights packages right now!

Sorry. My attention is off. I'm eating tacos at a cantina.

[clskinsfan]

38 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Howell is on a dirt cheap rookie deal and there is zero chance that he's cut 

I know you keep saying this but I disagree. If you draft a QB in the top 5 the last thing he needs is last years young starter salivating behind him on the bench. Plus Sam has trade value. Not the crazy first round garbage people were spewing in here a few days ago. But I could see them snagging a conditional 3rd for him that could be a 2nd based on playing time or whatecer. Which is a nice profit from a 5th round pick. 

[The Consigliere]

20 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I like our playmakers. Terry is great, so is b Rob. Curtis Samuel is good as well. Yes jahan and dyami have not looked like world beaters but I wouldn't call our playmakers one of the worst groups

Terry's 29 next year and is having his worst season since he was a rookie. B Rob has had a great year, we'll see if he can repeat it, the athleticism is not there, but the efficency is, which is super unusual. We'll need to reboot at RB after his '25 season, so we'll want a replacement after next season (I dont think the '24 class is good enough to warrant drafting one that's relevant). Samuel's good and he's locked in, aging, but fine. But overall, it aint great, WR1 is past the age apex and entering decline, WR2 is somewhere between a bust and a desperate for a year 3 bounce back, Samuel is decent, B Rob is an outlier season that was efficient. I'd give the WR's a D+, the rb's a C, the TE's a D. 

[Xameil]

On 12/18/2023 at 9:11 AM, DWinzit said:

Seriously, what's a half inch among friends? 

Depends on what kind of mood shes in...

[Koolblue13]

I'm sure Shen is evaluating and has been all year most likely. He came in before the trade deadline for a reason. 

 

I just mean these last few weeks aren't going to mean diddily squat.

53 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I know you keep saying this but I disagree. If you draft a QB in the top 5 the last thing he needs is last years young starter salivating behind him on the bench. Plus Sam has trade value. Not the crazy first round garbage people were spewing in here a few days ago. But I could see them snagging a conditional 3rd for him that could be a 2nd based on playing time or whatecer. Which is a nice profit from a 5th round pick. 

When do you see that happening? After the draft when one of the top QB needy teams passed on the 5-8 QBs in the draft? Maybe next season before the trade deadline to a team with an injured QB like we could have done with Brissett?

 

I can't see a team trading a conditional 2nd round pick for a back up and if other teams think he's a starter, then we'd be the fools to trade him.

 

Sam definitely doesn't strike me as the guy who's going to make a scene as QB2. 

[mac8887]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Terry's 29 next year and is having his worst season since he was a rookie. B Rob has had a great year, we'll see if he can repeat it, the athleticism is not there, but the efficency is, which is super unusual. We'll need to reboot at RB after his '25 season, so we'll want a replacement after next season (I dont think the '24 class is good enough to warrant drafting one that's relevant). Samuel's good and he's locked in, aging, but fine. But overall, it aint great, WR1 is past the age apex and entering decline, WR2 is somewhere between a bust and a desperate for a year 3 bounce back, Samuel is decent, B Rob is an outlier season that was efficient. I'd give the WR's a D+, the rb's a C, the TE's a D. 

So your saying there a chance

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

So your saying there a chance

Not quite. Samuel is a free agent after this year. So the guy he’s saying is the most locked in receiver is a free agent. 

[ntotoro]

I guess Ron has now decided to have Brissett's physical and mental health irretrievably destroyed... 

 

I wished I knew what Ron was attempting here. He knows his time is up and there is nothing to play for unless suddenly now he feels for Sam.

 

Edit: False alarm. The story was wrong and got a correction... 

Edited December 19, 2023 by ntotoro

[DJHJR86]

9 minutes ago, ntotoro said:

I guess Ron has now decided to have Brissett's physical and mental health irretrievably destroyed... 

 

I wished I knew what Ron was attempting here. He knows his time is up and there is nothing to play for unless suddenly now he feels for Sam.

 

????

 

What are you talking about here?

[ntotoro]

3 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

????

 

What are you talking about here?

 

LOL!!! My fault... apologizes sent and begged for. A corrected story came on my Echo Show just afterward... 

[DJHJR86]

 

[skinsmania123]

4 hours ago, mac8887 said:

Actually I'm all for keeping howell. Like I said in an earlier post, at least we know he has grit and can sling it. I think he would be a great back up. I've been reading this board faithfully since the cult of colt, and sexy rely. I remember reading on this board that John beck had a chance to be good. So yes I've been around a long time, just never bothered to create an account and give my opinion til this year. You can't honestly believe that Sam has earned the starting job next year. Maybe he has earned a chance to compete for it but definitely hasn't shown enough to warrant us passing on qb this draft

Fair enough. Just surprised that you waited so long to chime in that's all. I mean if the Heine Hive did not bring you in......that was lively discussion to say the least.  My hope is that they keep Howell, with a bolstered O line, a decent TE, and a big, bodied receiver and he has an opportunity to compete. But right now, he probably needs a sports psychologist...LOL!  And of course this all speculation, they could opt to trade him (I bet Sean McVay would take him), draft a rookie and bring in a vet backup.  I am open to anything. I just want to win.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

 

 

 

Bram and Callow were discussing this on the radio yesterday.  

 

Callow's take: he has never seen a coach who gets literally has no idea when to answer a question and when to shut up.

 

Bram (who, side note, WORKS FOR THE TEAM) said he wished he had a buzzer or an ear piece to tell Rivera when to shut up and not answer a question.

 

It was a pretty funny exchange.

 

They both agree he has absolutely no clue of when to shut up and when to go into expansive explanatory generally really dumb answers.  

5 hours ago, Wyvern said:

Ron's answer to the Wash-Post reporter's hypothetical question was a,poor one. 

 

He could have simply said, "Nikki, if we were in the playoff hunt, that means Sam was helping to bring in the wins, so why would I want to change horses? After all, we've all still seeing what this young man can do, even as he's being developed, and we see many ways that he's still improving, even though he's still seeing new NFL level tactics used against him for each week he starts against different teams."

But this would mean that he had the foresight to see his answer was stupid, and the ability to think on his feet enough to give a professional answer.

 

I will say: doing press conferences is not a natural experience.  And not something coaches are really prepared for.  They get the job because they are good coaches.  Then, as an added benefit, they have to talk to people who are trained to trip you up and get you to say something stupid. That's exactly what Nikki did.  She threw him a screwball in the dirt, and he took a big whack at it because he didn't know what else to do.

 

Coaches need to go to PR school.  I'm sure they get some pointers, but seriously, there needs to be a school which teaches coaches how to conduct interviews and press conferences.  

[mac8887]

17 minutes ago, skinsmania123 said:

Fair enough. Just surprised that you waited so long to chime in that's all. I mean if the Heine Hive did not bring you in......that was lively discussion to say the least.  My hope is that they keep Howell, with a bolstered O line, a decent TE, and a big, bodied receiver and he has an opportunity to compete. But right now, he probably needs a sports psychologist...LOL!  And of course this all speculation, they could opt to trade him (I bet Sean McVay would take him), draft a rookie and bring in a vet backup.  I am open to anything. I just want to win.  

I never really saw Heinike as an option. But man was he fun to watch that playoff game. My main reason for making an account was because I was sure howell was the guy and annointed him our franchise qb after the first eagles game, and it really was a very slow decline in performance with him with some games better than others up until a 4 weeks ago when the bottom dropped out in my opinion. (Picture market consolidation slightly to the downside and then a major sell off) I was just surprised why not many either noticed the slow decline in performance or refused to acknowledge it. I wanted to get on here and talk to people about it.

Edited December 19, 2023 by mac8887

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I know you keep saying this but I disagree. If you draft a QB in the top 5 the last thing he needs is last years young starter salivating behind him on the bench. Plus Sam has trade value. Not the crazy first round garbage people were spewing in here a few days ago. But I could see them snagging a conditional 3rd for him that could be a 2nd based on playing time or whatecer. Which is a nice profit from a 5th round pick. 

We disagree on this.  If your top 5 QB is scared of competition from a 3rd year 5th round pick, and that shakes his confidence, you've got the wrong guy.  

 

If you can get trade value, fine. 

 

But there's no reason to move Howell because it might upset the new QB.  Hell, you might want Howell to start the season if new QB isn't catching on. 

 

I'd say the odds on Howell being here next year no matter what are 80%.  With 15% being he's traded for a 3rd + draft pick.  And a 5% chance he's traded for less than a 3rd. 

[mac8887]

17 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

We disagree on this.  If your top 5 QB is scared of competition from a 3rd year 5th round pick, and that shakes his confidence, you've got the wrong guy.  

 

If you can get trade value, fine. 

 

But there's no reason to move Howell because it might upset the new QB.  Hell, you might want Howell to start the season if new QB isn't catching on. 

 

I'd say the odds on Howell being here next year no matter what are 80%.  With 15% being he's traded for a 3rd + draft pick.  And a 5% chance he's traded for less than a 3rd. 

I like this take, I think it's more likely to be a 5th or 6th rounder than a 3rd rounder. Why get rid of a good cheap back up who can run a little and can sling it. It's not a Flacco v Lamar situation, or a Alex Smith v Mahomes situation. Sam is nice and cheap for 2 more years, and he is young. If he looks really good in preseason or coming in, in relief he could raise his trade value. Maybe the curse is broken and in 2 years we will have 2 great qbs and we can tag and trade Sam for a big haul. I mean a guy can hope right?

3 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Terry's 29 next year and is having his worst season since he was a rookie. B Rob has had a great year, we'll see if he can repeat it, the athleticism is not there, but the efficency is, which is super unusual. We'll need to reboot at RB after his '25 season, so we'll want a replacement after next season (I dont think the '24 class is good enough to warrant drafting one that's relevant). Samuel's good and he's locked in, aging, but fine. But overall, it aint great, WR1 is past the age apex and entering decline, WR2 is somewhere between a bust and a desperate for a year 3 bounce back, Samuel is decent, B Rob is an outlier season that was efficient. I'd give the WR's a D+, the rb's a C, the TE's a D. 

What would you give Sam? It wouldn't be fair to grade the receivers that low if you are giving Sam a pass for ebs bad play calling. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by mac8887

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

When do you see that happening? After the draft

The new Gm will know the direction he wants to go pretty quickly imo. I would expect it to happen before the draft so they can get those resources this year.

[Daniel.redskins]

6 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I know you keep saying this but I disagree. If you draft a QB in the top 5 the last thing he needs is last years young starter salivating behind him on the bench. Plus Sam has trade value. Not the crazy first round garbage people were spewing in here a few days ago. But I could see them snagging a conditional 3rd for him that could be a 2nd based on playing time or whatecer. Which is a nice profit from a 5th round pick. 

Yep!  I like Howell more than anyone and want him starting here next year.  But you don't draft a top 5 QB to sit behind another young QB.  Veteran, yes, but not Howell.   We don't need another RG3/Cousins situation, that was awful for everyone.  If Howell is not starting he should be traded.  Bring in a veteran who knows the system.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

An AFC general manager went further, saying, "It's good at the top, but it's a bad year to need a guy after the first round. We could see four or five in the first round, one or two in the second and then none until Day 3."

The lack of depth certainly sticks out. We watched 14 quarterbacks get drafted in 2023 -- up from nine the year before -- and a record 12 of them were taken before the end of Round 5. You won't see that in 2024, thanks to injuries, unrealized expectations and a changing reality in college football as players maximize eligibility under name image likeness (NIL) and transfer rules.

 

I personally have four quarterbacks ranked in the top 20 overall: Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy. Then I have second-round grades on Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. before a drop-off to Tulane's Michael Pratt (fourth-round grade). Eleven signal-callers make my top 300 right now, which is lighter than the 15 I had in my final top 300 rankings in each of the previous two drafts. And one NFL general manager actually told me that his team's list is even shorter than mine.

"We have seven guys [ranked] right now, assuming none of the underclassmen surprise us. And that's why there will be a rush up the board to get the good ones."

 

An AFC scout who has watched all of this class's top quarterbacks spoke to that trend: "It used to be there'd be two or three guys. Now there are like four to five guys, a drop-off, and then some dudes who project as QB3 types. So comparing this [class] to even 2015 or 2016 isn't fair, because back then teams weren't elevating second- or third-round quarterbacks into the first round. Now we do."

Nix, a fifth-year senior, is the most polarizing of the group. He has started 60 games in his college career, throwing 108 touchdown passes to 26 interceptions. He has excellent touch and timing on underneath throws, and he works the flats like a pro. But Nix lacks elite arm strength and struggled at Auburn before transferring and finding success at Oregon.

 

 

"I think you could safely say four quarterbacks, with Nix in that Will Levis territory as an early Round 2 guy," said an AFC South scout who has studied the quarterbacks in this class for two years.

What about Penix? Scouts are split on the Washington transfer (from Indiana) following a great 2023 season. He's elusive in the pocket and throws a beautiful deep ball, layering passes into the hands of his talented receivers no matter the route.

 

But Penix also has injury concerns that must be vetted at the combine -- he has two ACL tears and two shoulder injuries in his profile that leave question marks the other top quarterbacks don't have. How his medicals come back could mean the difference between a top-40 draft position and something closer to a Round 3 grade.

"I see him as a Round 3 guy ... but that doesn't mean he'll be drafted in the third round. I could see a team that misses out on the top guys grabbing him early Round 2," said a former NFL scouting director who now consults with teams.

My most recent mock draft didn't feature Nix or Penix in Round 1, but it did have four quarterbacks drafted in the top seven selections -- which would be the fastest that four have come off the board in the common draft era. And the prevailing wisdom among scouts is Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix all have a shot to be an NFL starter in 2024.

---

Is Williams a lock at No. 1?

The USC junior hasn't officially declared for the draft yet, though he has opted out of the DirecTV Holiday Bowl. But the assumption around the league is Williams will declare before the January deadline.

Williams has been projected as the top overall quarterback in the class basically since he came out of high school and committed to coach Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma. He transferred to USC in 2022 when Riley took the coaching job there and didn't disappoint, winning the Heisman Trophy that season. Over two years at USC, Williams has 72 passing touchdowns, 21 rushing touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

"He's close to a lock [to go No. 1]," said one NFL general manager. "I wouldn't say he's a lock to the level Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow were, but he's more of a lock than Bryce Young or Baker Mayfield."

 

Williams has been called a "generational talent" by many NFL scouts and has received comparisons to Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and a young Russell Wilson. Quarterbacks with his arm strength, ability throw from multiple arm angles/platforms, field vision and mobility are rare -- which is why he's the overwhelming favorite among NFL scouts to be the first pick. His ability as a creator stands out most. His 82.3 Total QBR is good for 11th in the nation this season, and his 11 rushing touchdowns rank fifth among quarterbacks.

 

Calling anyone a "lock" is always risky, but in a poll of 10 scouts and front office personnel, everyone believed Williams will go No. 1. And I've personally had him as the top prospect in this class for more than two years.

That said, some scouts wonder if there is still room for movement at the top of the board. After all, USC lost five games in 2023, and Williams was sacked 33 times and had eight fumbles.

 

"Williams is the top guy right now, but things can change once the interviews start and the combine happens," said an AFC South scout who has seen Williams play live this season. "Remember last year, Young was a 'lock,' then the combine happened and C.J. Stroud killed it and Anthony Richardson killed it, and the narrative changed for a while. That could happen with Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy in the next four months."

 

Maye -- who has declared -- is more than just a consolation prize to teams that miss out on Williams. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, he has an arm like Herbert's and uses his mobility to pick up tough yards when pressed outside the pocket. He can be raw with ball placement and lower-body mechanics, but his best throws are jaw-droppers.

 

And the reality is Maye grades out higher than many recent class's QB1s. Let's go back a decade. I have Maye graded higher than Young (QB1 in 2023), Kenny Pickett (2022), Kyler Murray (2019), Mayfield (2018), Mitch Trubisky (2017) and Blake Bortles (2014). He is a legitimate franchise quarterback, and even with Williams being the clear favorite to go first, there will be many teams jockeying for position to select him.

"For Maye or someone else to take that top spot [from Williams], I think interviews are important, but it's also a matter of preference and scheme. What offense are you running? What division are you in? Maye is much bigger than Williams, and that alone could swing a decision," said an AFC North area scout. "In our division, size could be the tiebreaker if you have them rated closely -- especially when you look at how Bryce Young is struggling [in Carolina]."

---

Which quarterback has the most impressive trait?

Scouts had a lot of different answers here. Williams' field vision. Maye's second-effort mobility. McCarthy's efficiency. But it was Daniels' deep ball that was mentioned the most.

"The dude's touch down the field is really special," said an NFC area scout.

Daniels -- who officially declared for the draft on Monday -- first showed off his deep accuracy during his freshman year at Arizona State, and it has developed very well over the course of his college career. In 2023, Daniels threw 20 touchdown passes -- and zero interceptions -- on passes over 20 air yards. That's six more than anyone else, and 11 of them were aired out 30-plus yards downfield.

 

"A lot of these [QBs] have special traits, but his deep ball should be glorified," said another NFC scout who covers the SEC.

Daniels' ability to layer the ball over the top of defenders and how well he leads LSU's wide receivers -- including top prospects Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. -- into space is truly elite. His 99.6 QBR throwing to vertical routes led the nation this season.

---

Who is the biggest QB riser in the class so far?

It's Daniels again. In fact, no player, regardless of position, has risen more on my board this season than the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner. He's now No. 8 overall for me.

Over the summer, Daniels was receiving Day 3 grades from National Scouting Report and BLESTO Scouting Services, which NFL teams staff for early scouting assessments. One of those area scouts involved said in a text, "Daniels was a fun Day 3-type guy who had some nice traits but hadn't put it all together. Well, he put it together this year."

An LSU staffer told me that Daniels was the hardest worker during the team's summer practices and workouts, dedicated to not only adding strength to his lean 6-foot-4 frame but also improving his play from within the pocket. Coaches emphasized keeping his eyes up and down the field. It paid off, with Daniels throwing for 40 touchdown passes and four interceptions while completing 72.2% of his passes.

The class's QB3 was something of a debate all season, with Ewers, McCarthy and Sanders all getting some consideration there. But for now, Daniels is secure as my third-ranked quarterback. He continued to improve each week, and it doesn't hurt that he was the best QB in college football while battling it out in the competitive SEC.

"It's not crazy to think there are teams that will have Daniels as QB2," said an NFC general manager. "If you are building a team where the quarterback being mobile is a priority, Daniels could easily be your pick over Maye."

I spoke to another NFL exec late last week about the quarterbacks, and after 45 minutes of tossing around names, he said, "I think you like Daniels more than you realize!" His game fits well with the NFL, and yes, there is a path to him rising to QB2.

[profusion]

At this point, I'm going to punt (hopefully a good one) and say that there is good potential either way the Commanders choose to go--staying with Sam and building the team first, or spending some draft capital to bring in one of the top 3 picks (I don't predict they'll have a top 3 pick on their own). There is history out there of success going either route.

 

What matters most is that we have great people making those decisions and coaching up the resulting team.

[Warhead36]

If we draft a QB my hope is EB gets hired by the Steelers and they offer us something like a 3rd for Howell. Heck they gave us a 3rd(albeit a year later)for Haskins and Howell say what you will has still looked much better than ol Dewey(RIP).

[MartinC]

On 12/19/2023 at 2:02 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

Bram and Callow were discussing this on the radio yesterday.  

 

Callow's take: he has never seen a coach who gets literally has no idea when to answer a question and when to shut up.

 

Bram (who, side note, WORKS FOR THE TEAM) said he wished he had a buzzer or an ear piece to tell Rivera when to shut up and not answer a question.

 

It was a pretty funny exchange.

 

They both agree he has absolutely no clue of when to shut up and when to go into expansive explanatory generally really dumb answers.  

But this would mean that he had the foresight to see his answer was stupid, and the ability to think on his feet enough to give a professional answer.

 

I will say: doing press conferences is not a natural experience.  And not something coaches are really prepared for.  They get the job because they are good coaches.  Then, as an added benefit, they have to talk to people who are trained to trip you up and get you to say something stupid. That's exactly what Nikki did.  She threw him a screwball in the dirt, and he took a big whack at it because he didn't know what else to do.

 

Coaches need to go to PR school.  I'm sure they get some pointers, but seriously, there needs to be a school which teaches coaches how to conduct interviews and press conferences.  

Ron’s been a head coach for 13 years. You’d think he’d have picked up how to handle a press conference by osmosis in that time.