The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Isifhan]

5 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm curious if our new analytics guy had any effect on EB's playcalling.

He doesnt start until November 6th if I recall the hiring announcement correctly.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Isifhan

[RandyHolt]

Ok so Belly knows that EB went heavy WCO last week. I bet Belly will move up his DBs and have them jump routes a bit more. So I think the Pats D will be RIPE for pump fakes early this week. Suck up that safety, do some double moves, or of course EB can have Dyami do his fly down the left sideline.

 

That's the tape on our offense now. Howell throwing the quick pass. Watch for Pats DL to get lots of batted balls. It will be interesting to see EBs approach this week.

Edited November 1, 2023 by RandyHolt

[mistertim]

19 hours ago, SonnySideUp said:

Howell ranked 17th in QB mid-season rankings on this report. He's done this with a crappy OL as well.

 

Sam Howell has been one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season

 

[lavar1156]

Are people aware of the numbers Sam is putting up? He's basically top 10 in every category. And he hasn't even played a full season. Some people in the media still be like, "I'm still not sure he's the guy yet." Do you they see the QB play around the league? Unless Sam somehow sucks the 2nd half of the season I don't think there's any debate that he is QB 1 next season.

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, lavar1156 said:

Are people aware of the numbers Sam is putting up? He's basically top 10 in every category. And he hasn't even played a full season. Some people in the media still be like, "I'm still not sure he's the guy yet." Do you they see the QB play around the league? Unless Sam somehow sucks the 2nd half of the season I don't think there's any debate that he is QB 1 next season.

Again, volume stats aren't the most accurate because Howell has accumulated a lot in blowout situations, and he also hasn't had a bye yet while a lot of other QBs have. He's also had two AWFUL games against the Bears and Giants and in general has been very up and down. His only two good complete games were the two Eagle games and they have the worst pass defense in the league.

 

Again, not hating on Howell. I like a lot more than what I dislike. I'd just settle down on the whole "Howell is already a top 10 QB" stuff. I think the 17th ranking is accurate for him. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. A league average QB on a cheap mid round rookie contract is exceptional value. And I do believe he has the potential to be better.

 

By end of the season though he very well could be legitimately in the top 10.

[Thinking Skins]

9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Again, volume stats aren't the most accurate because Howell has accumulated a lot in blowout situations, and he also hasn't had a bye yet while a lot of other QBs have. He's also had two AWFUL games against the Bears and Giants and in general has been very up and down. His only two good complete games were the two Eagle games and they have the worst pass defense in the league.

 

Again, not hating on Howell. I like a lot more than what I dislike. I'd just settle down on the whole "Howell is already a top 10 QB" stuff. I think the 17th ranking is accurate for him. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. A league average QB on a cheap mid round rookie contract is exceptional value. And I do believe he has the potential to be better.

 

By end of the season though he very well could be legitimately in the top 10.

Some are volume stats and some are by design. We run an offense that runs through Sam so he is going to have more attempts. And our defense gives up 30+ points per game so you count that against him? Its not like he's putting up 4 pics a game. He legit had 1 bad game where he threw more than one pic. Other than that his ONLY problem has been the sacks. That has been the only thing that has been keeping him out of the top ten categories in EPA / play ratings every week.

 

And I've been talking to the analytics guys who work at the sites about this stuff because we've been debating whether or not this is correctable or not. Every time I point out a player who went from a high sack total to a low sack total, they say either well Sam is not on that level or but he's a bum. My response is that Sam is 23. We have no idea if Sam is on Elway's level or the Jay Cutler's. We just don't know yet.

 

We do know that he's putting up amazing numbers in just his 9th NFL start and people (media and analysts) are trying to dismiss it. Sure he wasn't there for half the NY game but he was close to winning it. And he almost won both those Philly games. And he almost brought us back to within a TD to Chicago from down 27-3 with 5:14 to go in the 4th. These are not gabage time stats. We were a missed FG away from a comeback. We are not far away. Dotson said it. We are close.

 

We're putting a lot on his shoulders and he's responding. He has some things to correct like the sacks and trying to get the ball to an underneath WR or a checkdown or not always locking onto Terry. But people are being picky. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I know some on this thread will likely fly out to see this game

 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Llevron]

We don't say his name 

[Skinsinparadise]

The Howell stuff is interesting, Russini said something similar today

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

I bet Atlanta starts winning games and makes the playoffs. 

[CapsSkins]

If Howell continues playing well, we need to extend him after next season. Let's not fall into the franchise tag trap we did with Cousins.

 

Obviously there's a lot of time between now and Spring 2025, but I wonder how reasonably we could lock him in. Sam being a 5th round pick is not sitting on a giant sum of career earnings - and he, at least thus far, takes a lot of hits - so our willingness to extend him prior to his 4th year could push him to sign a somewhat discounted deal as long as it isn't egregious.

 

I wonder if $20M/yr for 4 years would get it done depending on the guarantees? Or by then with the cap, $25M/year?  

[zCommander]

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

 

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, lavar1156 said:

Are people aware of the numbers Sam is putting up? He's basically top 10 in every category. And he hasn't even played a full season. Some people in the media still be like, "I'm still not sure he's the guy yet." Do you they see the QB play around the league? Unless Sam somehow sucks the 2nd half of the season I don't think there's any debate that he is QB 1 next season.

Using counting stats for QBs is pretty ridiculous. He's 16th in Passer rating, 20th in QBR. Nothing to sneeze at in either case. But not top 10 or particularly close to it, and those ratings are much more indicative of QB play, though far from perfect. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:09 AM, Warhead36 said:

I'm curious if our new analytics guy had any effect on EB's playcalling.

It's doubtful after 1 week.

 

I think "I just called the worst game of my life and almost got my QB killed against a bad team" probably had more of an effect on EB's playcalling.  

[HigSkin]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The Howell stuff is interesting, Russini said something similar today

 

 

Not sure how plugged in Sheehan is so FWIW.

 

Maybe Sheehan yesterday with Lovera because I listened to so many pods I might be mixing them up.  Anyway, was mentioned that "they" referring to above the coaches really like Sam.  He also name dropped ex Steelers GM Kevin Colbert as having someone with NFL experience in Harris's ear.  Don't know validity but that would be interesting.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by HigSkin

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

If Howell continues playing well, we need to extend him after next season. Let's not fall into the franchise tag trap we did with Cousins.

 

Obviously there's a lot of time between now and Spring 2025, but I wonder how reasonably we could lock him in. Sam being a 5th round pick is not sitting on a giant sum of career earnings - and he, at least thus far, takes a lot of hits - so our willingness to extend him prior to his 4th year could push him to sign a somewhat discounted deal as long as it isn't egregious.

 

I wonder if $20M/yr for 4 years would get it done depending on the guarantees? Or by then with the cap, $25M/year?  

We can't.  

 

You can't extend a player until after his third season, unless the rules changed without my knowledge. (Which is ABSOLUTELY possible.)

 

That's why McClaurin got an extension after year 3.  

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

We can't.  

 

You can't extend a player until after his third season, unless the rules changed without my knowledge. (Which is ABSOLUTELY possible.)

 

That's why McClaurin got an extension after year 3.  

 

Yes, after 2024 would be after his 3rd season. Howell is in his 2nd year this year.

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, HigSkin said:

 

Not sure how plugged in Sheehan is but FWIW.

 

Maybe Sheehan yesterday with Lovera because I listened to so many pods I might be mixing them up.  Anyway, was mentioned that "they" referring to above the coaches really like Sam.  He also name dropped ex Steelers GM Kevin Colbert as having someone with NFL experience in Harris's ear.  Don't know validity but that would be interesting.

It would make sense because Harris was a part owner of the Steelers for a while.  I assume he's not anymore, and had to sell his stake when he bought the Commanders.  Unless he still is a minority partner of the Steelers.  Maybe he could convince Tomlin to come home?  He went to William and Mary,,,  (That's a joke. Tomlin is not leaving Pittsburgh.)

Just now, CapsSkins said:

 

Yes, after 2024 would be after his 3rd season. Howell is in his 2nd year this year.

Sorry, I misread your post.  I thought you meant this season.  My bad. 

[HigSkin]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It would make sense because Harris was a part owner of the Steelers for a while.  I assume he's not anymore, and had to sell his stake when he bought the Commanders.  Unless he still is a minority partner of the Steelers.  Maybe he could convince Tomlin to come home?  He went to William and Mary,,,  (That's a joke. Tomlin is not leaving Pittsburgh.)

 

 

That Colbert thing then maybe makes sense.  I tried connecting the 2 and couldn't.  Thanks!

[Voice_of_Reason]

20 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Using counting stats for QBs is pretty ridiculous. He's 16th in Passer rating, 20th in QBR. Nothing to sneeze at in either case. But not top 10 or particularly close to it, and those ratings are much more indicative of QB play, though far from perfect. 

The thing with his QBR is he has WILDLY variant QBRs.  A lot of them are really good, like close to top-10.  

 

But then he has the anchor of the Bills and Giants game, which are like 32nd in the league level.

 

If he puts together a few more games on the good side, without adding an absolute clunker like the Bills and Giants, he's going to end up top 15 and maybe even top 12.  

 

For a 1st year QB, that's pretty damn good.  

[zCommander]

24 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

He's 16th in Passer rating, 20th in QBR.

 

I like to see these ratings after the season is over though. If he plays well with better OL protection he could be 8th in passing and 10th in QBR. If he becomes a top 10 by end of the season then that is a QB you build around while still on his cheap contract.

[oraphus]

I honestly don't get the narrative that the new HC will automatically want to bring in his own QB. Howell has already shown that he can play at this level and be successful. At worst he is 2nd half of the league starting QB caliber. Any new HC will look at his tape and see him as a potential starter.. now he might have to compete for a job next year but he will get his shot unless:

we tank badly and draft in top 5 - you have to take a QB at that point.

we trade a bunch of capital to get in to the top 3pics to draft a QB  - this is less likely if we finish with 6+ wins and since Howell has shown enough to be given another year. 

even if one the above things happen - which i doubt since this team has a lot of holes...

-Howell could still start as the new qb gets acclimated to the NFL

-having Howell as backup at <1mil a year is a deal.. and i am sure we will get a number of offers for him. 

 

As a HC having a potential starting QB on the team for almost nothing  .. and yet having the option to go in any direction when it comes to a QB is scenarios most coaches dream about. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by oraphus

[CapsSkins]

25 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Sorry, I misread your post.  I thought you meant this season.  My bad. 

 

All good - I like thinking ahead. 😁

[philibusters]

3 hours ago, lavar1156 said:

Are people aware of the numbers Sam is putting up? He's basically top 10 in every category. And he hasn't even played a full season. Some people in the media still be like, "I'm still not sure he's the guy yet." Do you they see the QB play around the league? Unless Sam somehow sucks the 2nd half of the season I don't think there's any debate that he is QB 1 next season.

 

In fairness to the media a lot of the efficiency stats place him like 20th out of 35 qualifying QB's or something like that.  In terms of volume stats like passing yards where he is 6th (7th in passing yards per game as some teams have had byes), TD's thrown (tied for 7th with Jalen Hurts),  completions--yes he is top 10.   But some of that is a product of the fact that we throw the ball a lot.