The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[KillBill26]

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Howell, Brissett and Haener would be my vote right now.  Brissett is a good teammate reputation wise and if gets beat in camp, he reputation wise isn't the type to make a stink. 

This is my vote at the moment.  I do not want to chase expensive cast offs like Carr or Jimmy G.

 

If Turner returns, I'd be ok with heinecke returning instead of brissett, especially if Brissett asks for close to 10 mil per.  6-7 for Brissett, ok fine, but not more than that.

 

Howell gets all the #1 reps in the summer and training camp.  He is our #1 with a long leash.  Give him the whole season then re evaluate heading into 2024, where we can be more aggressive with new ownership in place (hopefully).

 

1 - Howell

2 - Brissett / Heinecke

3 - Haener / Duggan / rookie 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

Agree with the last post. Just keep drafting QBs and hope you hit on one. But not 5th round QBs, the odds are just too long. And no reaches in the 1st either. 

 

Often I agree with this but it depends on context.  IMO Howell wasn't an ordinary 5th rounder.  Just like Wilson wasn't an ordinary 3rd rounder.  Just like Kirk wasn't an ordinary 4th rounder.

 

No hard and fast rules IMO.  Zen approach. 

 

5 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

This is my vote at the moment.  I do not want to chase expensive cast offs like Carr or Jimmy G.

 

If Turner returns, I'd be ok with heinecke returning instead of brissett, especially if Brissett asks for close to 10 mil per.  6-7 for Brissett, ok fine, but not more than that.

 

Howell gets all the #1 reps in the summer and training camp.  He is our #1 with a long leash.  Give him the whole season then re evaluate heading into 2024, where we can be more aggressive with new ownership in place (hopefully).

 

1 - Howell

2 - Brissett / Heinecke

3 - Haener / Duggan / rookie 

 

 

I watched Duggan some, he's a player i plan to dive deeper as to watching soon.  He's a dude who plays with moxie and has some decent mobility.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Keim said they were high on Howell before the draft and would have considered him in the 2nd round if they didn't make a move for Wentz.  Even with Wentz in the fold they couldn't resist taking Howell when he kept falling.   Howell himself said he spent a lot of time with this coaching staff pre-draft and this is the place he wanted to go.

 

I think Howell succeeding would save Rivera's job if anything, if its on the line.   The best way to overcome screwing up on Wentz, is yeah that was a mistake but we got it right with Howell.  

 

It's like killing the Seahawks for overspending on Matt Flynn and then Russell Wilson ending up the guy.  As a Seahawks fan, I wouldn't care about Flynn.

 

As I've said here multiple times, I love Howie Roseman's take on the process which he laid out years ago, its very very very hard to find a Qb, you will make mistakes, so keep taking shots and don't dwell or double down on the mistakes.  Roseman drafted Foles.  He traded fo Bradford.  He signed a ridiculous contract for Chase Daniel.  He traded up for Wentz and it ultimately blew up on him.  And he drafted Hurts.   The sausage making was ugly but it ended well.  

 

I don't care who our FO is, I don't want to crap on them for throwing multiple drats at the draft board and killing them for darts missing along the way.  That's how I want them to roll.  Try different things, be fearless, ignore fan wrath, that's the right approach IMO.  Doubling down with Jason Campbell or RG3 or name that QB is struggiling wastes time, and its how this franchise has rolled.  Yuck. 

 

We don't know yet if Howell is the right guy, I think he has a good chance will see.  But I don't care at all about what misses they had in the process, I like the process a lot.  If people want to give a hard time to Rivera for misses for whatever reason, I am OK with that, but I'll defend the process of throwing darts.  It's taking me a long time to get here but I want to keep shooting at the QB spot until we find that guy, I expect some misses, but I want a FO who doesn't double down on them and takes multiple shots.

 

 

I like your post....given your take on throwing darts at QB's would you take a look at a somewhat rejuvenated and possibly even humbled Baker Mayfield? He's a former #1 overall pick who has shown promise in LA and should be available for us if we want him. I think he's too risky of a personality to bring in if we think Howell can be the guy but let's say Mayfield's agent calls RR and says his client is really interested in playing for the Commanders with all of their young talent. To me, Mayfield could be the kind of QB who had to mature, take some hard lessons, but with the right coaching could possibly be a later bloomer in his NFL career. 

How often do former #1 NFL picks come available at age 27 with little wear on their tires? I think you have to at least talk to him and look at his film in LA.

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Often I agree with this but it depends on context.  IMO Howell wasn't an ordinary 5th rounder.  Just like Wilson wasn't an ordinary 3rd rounder.  Just like Kirk wasn't an ordinary 4th rounder.

 

No hard and fast rules IMO.  Zen approach. 

Yeah but that does not change the odds of 4th round and above QBs and their hit rate, even those who were not ordinary 5th rounders.  I'm sure like Wilson Howell's size was a factor.  But that is changing with so many shorter QBs having success.  

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

That would be the Eagles by a large margin and it's not close. They were historic this year. 3rd most ever, 1rst team with 4 10+ sack guys and Hasson Reddick had a better year than Parsons. 

 

I don't care enough to debate so I'll let you have the last word.   😀    But I've seen this before so hence my comment.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34536376/2022-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams#prwrteam

Team pass rush win rate

1. Dallas Cowboys, 52%
2. Philadelphia Eagles, 52%
3. Miami Dolphins, 49%
4. Arizona Cardinals, 48%
5. Los Angeles Rams, 47%

[Darrell Green Fan]

Just now, kingdaddy said:

I like your post....given your take on throwing darts at QB's would you take a look at a somewhat rejuvenated and possibly even humbled Baker Mayfield? He's a former #1 overall pick who has shown promise in LA and should be available for us if we want him. I think he's too risky of a personality to bring in if we think Howell can be the guy but let's say Mayfield's agent calls RR and says his client is really interested in playing for the Commanders with all of their young talent. To me, Mayfield could be the kind of QB who had to mature, take some hard lessons, but with the right coaching could possibly be a later bloomer in his NFL career. 

How often do former #1 NFL picks come available at age 27 with little wear on their tires? I think you have to at least talk to him and look at his film in LA.

 

Mayfield is another Wentz.  I sure hope our coaches aren't in the frame of mind that they are the ones who are gonna fix him.  

[kingdaddy]

1 minute ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

Mayfield is another Wentz.  I sure hope our coaches aren't in the frame of mind that they are the ones who are gonna fix him.  

Yeah, like I said, he's too risky for me, especially if we like Howell moving forward...too much ego there.

[Koolblue13]

I wonder how our season would have gone if we did draft Howell in the 2nd, like we originally planned to do. 

 

Such a strange QB year last year.

 

Ironically, I think the 49ers are showing the NFL how to not need a $40 mil a year QB to be successful. We have the full team for the most part and some dangerous versatile weapons as well. If we had even average QB play the entire year, we're a playoff team.

 

Howell has all of the tools and while not a big guy, he is built thick and could take the beating. He's also smart about getting down when he should.

[skinsfan66]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I think we all watched the game.  Howell did some good things but did you see anything that got you really excited?  Given the hit rate of 5th round QBs I think 99% is not that unreasonable.  

Numbers? I watched the game, he played better than the numbers. Dull treat QB's are the know, D-players are so fast, big, quick and OL cannot block them anymore, They have to have a qb who can get the ball out quick, escape, run to offset. He has a lot of those things. They need to add new numbers that tell the story. QB's that played baseball sometime in their life do better, they can slide, they can throw side arm if needed or junk throws around someone. they have the side vision from being on base while looking Forword. The exact opposite of RGS great speed but straight line no wiggle, did not know how to slide, got crushed.  Taylor has some of these things too and maybe the reason he has stuck. Because he can do those things his % should move up big time from 99%.  Just my opinion though.

[Chris 44]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Often I agree with this but it depends on context.  IMO Howell wasn't an ordinary 5th rounder.  Just like Wilson wasn't an ordinary 3rd rounder.  Just like Kirk wasn't an ordinary 4th rounder.

 

No hard and fast rules IMO.  Zen approach. 

 I can see Ron not wanting to throw shade at Wentz or Heinike in the moment. Now that the season is over I dont want to hear that, it should be a definitive break. I think Howell has earned the shot, however that does not preclude them exploring options. With all that is going on within the organization (possible coaching change(s) timeline of sale related to available QB upgrades in FA and middling draft position options are slim. Howell, at the moment, seems to be the best option.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I wonder how our season would have gone if we did draft Howell in the 2nd, like we originally planned to do. 

 

Such a strange QB year last year.

 

Ironically, I think the 49ers are showing the NFL how to not need a $40 mil a year QB to be successful. We have the full team for the most part and some dangerous versatile weapons as well. If we had even average QB play the entire year, we're a playoff team.

 

Howell has all of the tools and while not a big guy, he is built thick and could take the beating. He's also smart about getting down when he should.

 

But if we drafted him in the second people wouldn't have the lazy crutch of "he's a fifth rounder!:

 

Instead they'd say, "He's a second rounder. How often do they develop!"

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

Yeah but that does not change the odds of 4th round and above QBs and their hit rate, even those who were not ordinary 5th rounders.  I'm sure like Wilson Howell's size was a factor.  But that is changing with so many shorter QBs having success.  

 

I get the idea of shooting for low ceiling Qb prospects often ends up a waste of time, with some exceptions clearly.  But not just for the QB spot for any spot, I am not locked into any rule.  So I agree with spirit of your point, but I embrace some flexibility.

 

These FO guys are paid to factor context. Otherwise a draft can just be run by some sort of computer system-quantatitve analysis program.

 

I do like having some parameters but I like to use them loosely, where its not rigid.  And trends can change.  You mention the shorter thing wasn't accepted so much then but now it is.  Some say that trend is starting to reverse back to the old, and is one of the reasons why Howell fell.

 

2012 draft was loaded so some QBs fell.   Howell rose and fell as a prospect based on context.  Some thought the context matters, some not so much.   If a coaching-scouting staff scouts a prospect and decides that a QB prospect deserves to be drafted much higher and they are intrigued with said QB based on how far they fell, then ride with that.  

 

I am not even much of H. Hooker guy but if I were, he's another dude who likely falls based on context -- age, injury-QB system.  He likely ends up in the 4th round given or take but if context was different he'd likey go in the early 2nd.    Stuff like that happens in plenty of drafts.

 

I think especially picking in the mid rounds, shoot for upside, and yes once in awhile a QB with some upside can fall that far.  

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get the idea of shooting for low ceiling Qb prospects often ends up a waste of time, with some exceptions clearly.  But not just for the QB spot for any spot, I am not locked into any rule.  So I agree with spirit of your point, but I embrace some flexibility.

 

These FO guys are paid to factor context. Otherwise a draft can just be run by some sort of computer system-quantatitve analysis.

I do like having some parameters but I like to use them loosely, where its not rigid.  And trends can change.  You mention the shorter thing wasn't accepted so much then but now it is.  Some say that trend is starting to reverse back to the old, and is one of the reasons why Howell fell.

 

2012 draft was loaded so some QBs fell.   Howell rose and fell as a prospect based on context.  Some thought the context matters, some not so much.   If a coaching-scouting staff scouts a prospect and decides that a QB prospect deserves to be drafted much higher and they are intrigued with said QB based on how far they fell, then ride with that.  

 

I am not even much of H. Hooker guy but if I were, he's another dude who likely falls based on context -- age, injury-QB system.  He likely ends up in the 4th round given or take but if context was different he'd likey go in the early 2nd.    Stuff like that happens in plenty of drafts.

 

 

It's hard, almost a year later, still having to have this discussion when people default to draft position.

 

Any player taken anywhere can turn into a player. Lower rounders generally have less of a chance. But lower rounders who have different trajectories and fall for a reason or another typically have a higher hit %. QB is different in some ways and some ways its not. Generally the guys who can become elite QBs are taken early, but even a lot of them bust.

 

Howell was a top ten guy at the end of his sophomore year.

 

He didn't play poorly enough at all to drop into the 5th. He was drafted in the fifth round. That is a fact that can't be argued. But he is FAR from being a fifth rounder. And that abstract thinking is lost on many folks who like to color by the numbers. 

[Skinsinparadise]

27 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I wonder how our season would have gone if we did draft Howell in the 2nd, like we originally planned to do. 

 

Such a strange QB year last year.

 

Ironically, I think the 49ers are showing the NFL how to not need a $40 mil a year QB to be successful. We have the full team for the most part and some dangerous versatile weapons as well. If we had even average QB play the entire year, we're a playoff team.

 

Howell has all of the tools and while not a big guy, he is built thick and could take the beating. He's also smart about getting down when he should.

 

Average QB play, we'd easily be in the playoffs IMO and I think would win a game.

 

Howell has a rocket of an arm and can move. High wonderlic score.  Tough-gritty player.  I get the lets not give him the keys to the castle yet -- that's my philosophy for any rookie QB based on one game. 

 

But this isn't like lets say if Nick Mullens develops, Howell has franchise level traits.  If Howell develops well he can be very good.    

Edited January 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Chump Bailey]

Howell's fall in the draft was mystifying to me. I thought for sure it must have been some off the field stuff because it didn't register to me how it could have been a skill/transition area of concern. He was an absolute steal. 

[KDawg]

Just now, Chump Bailey said:

Howell's fall in the draft was mystifying to me. I thought for sure it must have been some off the field stuff because it didn't register to me how it could have been a skill/transition area of concern. He was an absolute steal. 

Obviously I am in complete agreement. I had him as QB1 and there were no reports, or even sniffs, of personality concerns. I think the NFl overthought themselves on him.

 

Now, is he a franchise guy? I think he can be. But he has much to prove over a prolonged period to be considered that.

 

But he is certainly not "just a 5th rounder"

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

It's hard, almost a year later, still having to have this discussion when people default to draft position.

 

Any player taken anywhere can turn into a player. Lower rounders generally have less of a chance. But lower rounders who have different trajectories and fall for a reason or another typically have a higher hit %. QB is different in some ways and some ways its not. Generally the guys who can become elite QBs are taken early, but even a lot of them bust.

 

Howell was a top ten guy at the end of his sophomore year.

 

He didn't play poorly enough at all to drop into the 5th. He was drafted in the fifth round. That is a fact that can't be argued. But he is FAR from being a fifth rounder. And that abstract thinking is lost on many folks who like to color by the numbers. 

 

I wasn't looking for a Qb in the draft after they traded for Wentz.  I thought they were out on a QB.

 

But when Howell fell like that i was stunned, when he was still there in the 4th, I couldn't believe it, on the day draft thread I said we got to take him here even if we don't in theory need a QB right now.  I was screaming at my TV when the 5th round was about to start and went to my son, please take Howell and we gave each other high fives when he was taken there.

 

Judging by what Keim said they were thinking, they likewise were stunned, he was on the table in the 2nd (pre Wentz trade) and ultimately couldn't pass him up.

 

When they took Kirk Cousins in the 4th round in 2012, likewise I liked the move.  Like Howell he fell longer than he should and Shanny said they had him rated much higher and couldn't resist the draft value at that point.

 

Once a player is taken where they were taken is irrelevant, who cares?  If Howell was a first rounder, the performance yesterday would feel better to some?

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

Cowboys with back to back franchise QBs from day 3. Hurts with the Eagles, Cousins and now hopefully Howell for us.The East is good at late round QBs, so i'm not dismissing him.

 

And yeah, in 2022 if Sam came out that year, he was a top 10 pick who went back to a talent depleted team and carried them on his back to respectability. 

 

I'm all in on Howell.

 

Sip, you know VoR is gonna see that. 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Koolblue13

[KDawg]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

Cowboys with back to back franchise QBs from day 3. Hurts with the Eagles, Cousins and now hopefully Howell for us.The East is good at late round QBs, so i'm not dismissing him.

 

And yeah, in 2022 if Sam came out that year, he was a top 10 pick who went back to a talent depleted team and carried them on his back to respectability. 

 

I'm all in on Howell.

 

Me too. He needs to go into the season as QB1. I am okay with some kind of competition in the form of a Brissett type, but otherwise I'd stand pat at QB unless something phenomenal falls in our lap. 

[Drock_VB]

Gotta go with Howell next year at this point.  I Don’t see this team getting  a guy in the draft that can start game 1 next year. 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Drock_VB

[Skinsinparadise]

Chris Russell right now doubling down on something I saw elsewhere that Marty Hurney is the dude pushing Howell the hardest in that building.  He scouted Howell a ton, went to game after game he played.  He was a loud advocate to both draft Howell and play him yesterday.

 

Hurney as John Keim said before loved Herbert in that draft.  But alas for Carolina, he was taken just before his pick.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[redskinss]

27 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

But if we drafted him in the second people wouldn't have the lazy crutch of "he's a fifth rounder!:

 

Instead they'd say, "He's a second rounder. How often do they develop!"

The irony is that you could say that for every pick. 

The draft is a total crapshoot especially at quarterback and although the odds certainly improve as you move closer to number one they're still awful for every single slot except maybe first overall and even then I doubt it's above 50/50.

[FootballZombie]

I think draft slot only matters in opportunities allotted, and how soon they come.

 

You invest a boatload in a guy from an organizational standpoint he is gonna play. Its just a matter of when.

When those high cost guys move on to other destinations they are going to see opportunity 2 and 3 as well, whether they deserve it or not.

 

Low cost guys are not thrust forward in the same manner. They face a harder path to break thru and a shorter leash once there.

[Skinsinparadise]

36 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I wonder how our season would have gone if we did draft Howell in the 2nd, like we originally planned to do. 

 

Such a strange QB year last year.

 

Ironically, I think the 49ers are showing the NFL how to not need a $40 mil a year QB to be successful. We have the full team for the most part and some dangerous versatile weapons as well. If we had even average QB play the entire year, we're a playoff team.

 

Howell has all of the tools and while not a big guy, he is built thick and could take the beating. He's also smart about getting down when he should.

 

I think you can do it with a loaded roster, we aren't there yet but getting there IMO.  And I know you and I are higher on this roster than most.  49ers are loaded.

 

I was listening to a 49ers beat guy who covers national football too and he's was high on this roster saying he feels they are a year or so away to building a 49ers level roster. 

 

O line obviously needs a major fix.  You do that and have an average QB, replace the O coordinator, and I think we are going places.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Zim489]

16 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

Howell's fall in the draft was mystifying to me

Hes pretty good in a lot of ways but I wouldnt say elite in any of them. Hes also not big.

 

Its hard to see a path to elite QB play with him. I think the Buffalo KC in the playoffs last year opened a lot of eyes. "If we dont have one of those guys we dont have a chance" i feel was said by a lot of teams in the offseason. We have been seeing it develop over years but I think this year was the first true embracement of if youre not elite or have a chance to be elite youre going to fall.